Wooooooo nobody hit! $203 million!
- Thread starter Zep
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Gonaria said:
lmao, now i feel embarrassed,i realized i was talking about $104,not 1040....but people do buy scratch cards and win.
easiest way is buying the new games for the first week.since they want to be popular, its usually 1/3 have $6 prize or 1/4 have $20.after two weeks or so, your chances go lower.
enough judging.
I love how people who refuse to play lotto think they have some super advanced information and are above the commoners. No one that plays expects to win, its called having a little fun....
plus, the fact that the earth exists and that you are on it is way more rarer than winning powerball. so winning the powerball wouldn't be the craziest thing to ever happen to you.
plus, the fact that the earth exists and that you are on it is way more rarer than winning powerball. so winning the powerball wouldn't be the craziest thing to ever happen to you.
perryfarrell
Member
Joe said:
Actually, they're wrong as well.
The chances of winning the powerball jackpot are one chance in 195,249,054. A ticket costs $1. The jackpot is >200 million. So rationally speaking, it makes sense to play the powerball when the price hasn't been paid out in a while, because the expected utility is greater than one.
Joel Was Right
Member
This made me wonder. If you asked a friend to get you a scratch card, and gave him the money to purchase it, and then he chose a particular card and it turned out to be the winning one - would you feel he deserves some of the money? And if so, what percentage
Dead Prince
Banned
being your friend is enough.Meus Renaissance said:
I never understand why people get excited over big jackpots. All it really means is that more people play, which means that if you do win, there's a higher chance you'll have to split the jackpot.
NJ used to do a raffle-style lottery at the end of the year. Max prize was "only" $1 million dollars and tickets were $20, but there were a very limited number of tickets and since it was raffle-style, somebody had to win. They got rid of it due to disinterest, which is a shame. That was the only lotto I ever played.
NJ used to do a raffle-style lottery at the end of the year. Max prize was "only" $1 million dollars and tickets were $20, but there were a very limited number of tickets and since it was raffle-style, somebody had to win. They got rid of it due to disinterest, which is a shame. That was the only lotto I ever played.
Byakuya769
Member
Joe said:
It's hard to put a price on the utility of "enjoyment" so people who like bringing economics and rational actors into every facet of life forget about it. I agree with you in general, even the people who spend a lot of money on it, can't be judged too much more harshly than the people who spend hundred of dollars on any other form of entertainment.
When I play, it's not only the jackpot that i'm excited for...the $200,000 second place prize would do me just fine as well...hell even $10,000.
Most i ever won though was $150 from a Mega Millions ticket.
As for "It's so stupid, look at the odds!", well...people DO win these things, doing nothing more extraordinary than myself, just buying a ticket(s) and saying What the hell. Do I expect to win? No...but I don't automatically disqualify myself by saying I CAN'T win.
Most i ever won though was $150 from a Mega Millions ticket.
As for "It's so stupid, look at the odds!", well...people DO win these things, doing nothing more extraordinary than myself, just buying a ticket(s) and saying What the hell. Do I expect to win? No...but I don't automatically disqualify myself by saying I CAN'T win.
dr3upmushroom
Banned
If you buy one ticket it's one dollar. Many people buy multiple tickets per week though, it adds up pretty quick. A lot of people who play the lottery aren't exactly well off too, and playing the lottery is basically throwing money away. The old "tax on people who can't do math" thing is totally true.friskykillface said:
And I hope your post was supposed to be a joke, but it should probably worry you if you find yourself agreeing with Dale Gribble on much.
dr3upmushroom
Banned
It's always funny when people who know a little about cost/benefit analysis or econ in general try to use it in cases like this. Much of economics is nonsense anyway, but it's basically impossible to prove anything with it or use it to show what a "rational person would do." For example, in this case, the expect payout for the lottery is technically more than the price of playing, it's only by a couple cents or so. If you look at the lottery in a vacuum than yeah, it makes sense to play, but if you take into account the opportunity cost of playing the lottery, it looks a lot less appealing.perryfarrell said:
perryfarrell
Member
dr3upmushroom said:
'Expected utility' is a familiar concept from decision theory, a mathematical approach to rational decision making. Read up on it, instead of saying 'economics is bullshit anyways' which is stupid.
Usually, people argue that partaking in lotteries is irrational because the expected utility of purchasing a ticket is less than one. In this case--when the powerball hasn't been paid out in a while and the jackpot keeps growing--that argument no longer holds up. That's all I said.
But you're right, there are other factors worth taking into account. One is opportunity cost. But for purchasing a $1 ticket, that doesn't apply really. Another (and more relevant one) is that people are risk-averse.
For instance, if I had a million dollars and I could buy for that money 2 tickets in a 3-ticket lottery where the pay-out is 2 million (effectively, giving me a 66% shot at 2 million), I wouldn't do it. Expected utility is more than one, but I still wouldn't do it, partly because our lives are finite and as a result people are risk-averse.
Lazlo Woodbine
Member
gdt5016 said:
Hmm. I would suggest the rational expectation of return on a single ticket is $0.00. Unless we're talking about scaling up massively (into the tens or hundreds of millions of tickets) any reasonable quantity of tickets purchased (1, 10, 100, 1000) will return very close to $0.00 in the very vast majority of circumstances.
Conciliator
Banned
There are some guys at work that get in if the pot goes high enough, which is hilarious to no end. It's like, we don't want to throw our money away for 100 million dollars. That would be stupid. 200 million dollars though...now we're talking.
Dead Prince
Banned
Let me go first.
I pick first number
43
I pick first number
43
Well, it's a nice way of limiting how much you throw away... If you set a policy of only paying a certain amount ($1, $5, $20, whatever) and only when the pot reaches a certain minimum ($200 million or whatever) you can manage the amount you spend annually on lottery tickets.Conciliator said:
way more
Member
Conciliator said:
The idea is playing the lottery is stupid. Therefore playing it very rarely is less stupid.
And besides, for 2 bucks you get to daydream what you would do with 200 mill. Seems worth it to me.
Korey said:
I play when it gets above 200 mill. That's about every 3 years.
Conciliator
Banned
mac said:
This is the thing about it that's funny to me, though: What are you fantasizing about that you couldn't do with $150 million?
You're right about it decreasing how often you play though, which is a good thing.
freenudemacusers
Member
...one of those people that play the lottery?Jakeh111 said:
shaowebb
Member
I buy tickets here and there but never hope for anything. Stlll if I hit a jackpot you'd better believe the games industry was going to have a new studio in it. I have a hit list I keep of talent in the industry thats solid to keep an eye on. Gives me an idea which studios might pan out something good when they get hired on.
If I won...lets say that hit list would take on a much more important role.
If I won...lets say that hit list would take on a much more important role.
perfectchaos007
Member
Doesn't it get into the 200 million range often? I only play when it's above 300 mil
freenudemacusers
Member
i only peek into the powerball/megamillions sites here and there, and they seem to end around the 50-80 million mark a lot. which is still obviously a fuckload of money. I just cut myself off at a 100 million minimum, and only play $5/month, if that. Sure you could say that I lower my chances by sticking to higher jackpots with more players, but it is really a difference between a small snowball and a larger snowball's chance in hell.perfectchaos007 said:
I think I've maybe won $10 in the last year hah.
Deadly Cyclone
Pride of Iowa State
If a gaffer ever won that much I would hope they'd give everyone on Gaf money.
Dead Prince
Banned
tonight is the night a group from michigan wins or an old couple who stopped in to buy a quick pick when wife said no.
Byakuya769
Member
Jakeh111 said:
Ugh you're one of those people..... (current gaf poster)
freenudemacusers
Member
Doh forgot to buy. I hope the old lady spends it well.DMPrince said:
TheChewyWaffles
Member
Deadly Cyclone said:
Not me. You'd never hear from me again.
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