Puyo Puyo launches at full price every time and it's a big seller at that price
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Puyo Puyo launches at full price every time and it's a big seller at that price
Well obviously RPG fans didn't get that message.
Puyo Puyo also makes big money as an f2p mobile game, but I think that business model makes zero sense at a console launch, so 4800 yen is probably the best income optimization they can do.
You'd have to sell 10 times as much to make that money at Virtual Console prices.
Similarly, see how VR games are priced for why you'd want to charge a lot at launch even if you think it's too much money. The only ones that made money were at $40, and then a few at $20.
You'd have to sell 10 times as much to make that money at Virtual Console prices.
Similarly, see how VR games are priced for why you'd want to charge a lot at launch even if you think it's too much money. The only ones that made money were at $40, and then a few at $20.
I'm not sure if understand what you are implying there correctly. You think Splatoon 2 and Minecraft will outsell all of 3DS's 2017 top 10 combined? I know you are very confident in Splatoon 2, but I don't see how it's possible for that to happen in Japan when we're likely going to see Monster Hunter XX, a new Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest XI on 3DS. Even if Dragon Quest XI will miss its date, we are looking at what? 2.5 million for XX and FE?
Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Monster Hunter XX alone will sell more than Splatoon 2 and Minecraft Switch combined this year.
If Nintendo plans to release a cheaper handheld SKU in 2018, they'll already have announced those plans to their 3rd party partners. There's no way they wouldn't have informed the likes of Capcom and Level-5 that they'll position Switch as a home console first and as a handheld platform later, so that those companies can plan accordingly.
Whether or not Nintendo keeps the Switch branding for a possible new handheld is also of little importance in the grand scheme of things. Even if Nintendo will continue treating Switch as a console, an eventual new handheld would still be based on Switch's hardware. Everything else would quite simply not make sense from a hardware design point of view. Why design something new when you already have a perfectly scalable piece of hardware on the market? Worst case would be a clusterfuck of releases that are both compatible to Switch and "unnamend new handheld" and titles that are only compatible with Switch or the handheld.
The perception is that VR games can sell for more. There isn't such perception about Bomberman and arguably a core Puyo Puyo game (minus gimmicks, Tetris, RPGs etc) would equally not sell well in 2017 at ¥5,000 or ¥6,000.
I guess my sentiment is more that if you don't expect it to sell well regardless, it makes way more sense to charge more to your limited audience.
I don't think Konami views this as a title that's going to sell 300,000 copies at $15 or 20,000 copies at $50, but rather something significantly less elastic.
That's fine in principle but it does damage the franchise's worth by both over charging and in disappointing the audience (I'm pre-supposing the last part as assume the game's perspective will make the game less enjoyable than classic Bomberman).
When I'm talking about totals I'm talking about lifetime sales.
Top 10 games on the 3DS for 2017 lifetime sales combined would be no where close to the lifetime sales of Minecraft and Splatoon 2. I fully expect both to be games that sell over 5 million each in Japan on the Switch during their lifetimes. Switch games and especially evergreen Switch games will continue to sell for at least 2-3 years more as more people adopt the system.
Minecraft is the biggest 3rd party game thats coming for the first time to a Nintendo handheld.
While Splatoon is the biggest online multiplayer franchise Nintendo owns outside of Pokemon.
You can't really compare the interest between Splatoon 2 and MH XX. Or you can but it's not particularly flattering for XX.
Also there is no chance of Monster Hunter XX selling more than Splatoon 2 this year as well.
Lets take a look at the current top 10 for 2016:
1. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 3.246.222
02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura # <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.07.16} (¥4.800) - 1.397.436
03. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 860.127
04. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} (¥4.700) - 743.388
05. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.03.24} (¥5.250) – 623.083
06. [3DS] Yo-Kai Sangokushi <SLG> (Level 5) {2016.04.02} (¥4.600) – 563.395
07. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.12.15} (¥4.800) - 509.667
08. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.04.28} (¥4.700) - 479.698
09. [WIU] Splatoon # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥5.700) – 398.251 / 1.463.148
10. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition # <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.400) - 397.607 / 876.085
Lets for example say that 3DS software wise won't be down YOY - I question that myself outside of MH and DQ I don't think there is anything that will do a million. Also as a new device is out on the market you can't expect there to be much subsequent sales outside of the launch year on the legacy device. Like I said in an earlier thread about Switch - I expect Nintendo to drop the price or bundle a game before the end of the year. DQ could possibly do Pokemon numbers on the 3DS but I think sales might be split pretty evenly between 3DS/Switch. While MH XX would be a title that I expect to at best do slightly better than YW3.
Guys Splatoon on the Wii U did like over 250k in Dec 2015 - over 6 months after it's launch. It is in the top 10 for 2016. The game is going to be what Nintendo releases to grow subs in Japan and the World its going to get big updates, its going to get concerts, it's going to get tournaments - once again you are underestimating the potential for Splatoon.
5 million each? please keep you enthusiasm down
theprodigy
Member
just a reminder that this guy at one point predicted 10 million for Switch in year 1....in Japan
DarkLordMalik
Member
Minecraft is going to sell 5 million because it will be released on Switch? Maybe if Nintendo money hatted a Minecraft sequel to be released exclusively for Switch, and even then, it wouldn't be possible 
First we didn't know the price or line up at the time. A Y20,000 Nintendo Tablet with Y6,000 Splatoon 2, Pokemon Stars, DQ, MH, AC etc. Japan had the potential of 10 million sales in the first year without being supply constrained.
Previously people would say I'm crazy for predicting Splatoon wouldn't outsell XBX and Mario Maker - look how that turned out.
Minecraft is going to sell 5 million because it will be released on Switch? Maybe if Nintendo money hatted a Minecraft sequel to be released exclusively for Switch, and even then, it wouldn't be possible
Minecraft sold a million on the Vita a device which had no other multimillion selling games. Minecraft for Switch is going to sell very well over the course of the Switch's life because it's going to be one of the games picked up with the device. You buy Switch during it's first two years it's very likely that you buy both Minecraft and Splatoon 2 especially if you are a 3DS kid who never had squid.
So in Konami mobile updates:
- Yu-Gi-Oh: Duel Links has hit 13 million downloads. It was even at the #1 most downloaded spot in the US for a while (it's currently #3). Revenue wise, it's currently in the Japanese Top 15 and U.S. Top 30.
- Winning Eleven Club Manager has surpassed 20 million downloads.
- PowaPro Soccer has surpassed 5 million downloads in a month. That's currently at #13 in Japan.
Gumi also has a relatively successful Tactical RPG on mobile called "For Whom The Alchemist Exists" that's managed to go from the 35-100 range to the top 10 with their current Fate collaboration event, in case anyone was curious about the potential power of collaborations on mobile.
The game, for reference:
- Yu-Gi-Oh: Duel Links has hit 13 million downloads. It was even at the #1 most downloaded spot in the US for a while (it's currently #3). Revenue wise, it's currently in the Japanese Top 15 and U.S. Top 30.
- Winning Eleven Club Manager has surpassed 20 million downloads.
- PowaPro Soccer has surpassed 5 million downloads in a month. That's currently at #13 in Japan.
Gumi also has a relatively successful Tactical RPG on mobile called "For Whom The Alchemist Exists" that's managed to go from the 35-100 range to the top 10 with their current Fate collaboration event, in case anyone was curious about the potential power of collaborations on mobile.
The game, for reference:
So the only thing FE Heroes need to succeed is have Saber in their game? I'm in.
On a serious note, do you see Yu-gi-oh! as a long lasting hit? Nostalgia factor might wear off over time, and some time later it'll reach cards/characters where there weren't many people have nostalgia on. Like how Pokemon GO hit the ceiling early with Gen 1.
I think the main question is if people actually like the gameplay. So far, the amount of downloads and ratings suggest that they're enjoying that, so I'm optimistic, but it's always a bit hard to say.
In Japan at least, it didn't implode after the first two months, which is generally the first major trial, as people who were just there because they liked the IP once or wanted the new shiny mobile game tend to have left by this point. The second hurdle is more like... is this still relevant one year after launch, which is kind of long way from now. An example of a game that struggled on that time scale is Final Fantasy: Grandmasters. This tends to come down to good post launch support, and a hard assessment of gameplay longevity, as opposed to it just being short-term entertaining.
Tbh, I think Lucina owes alot of popularity to Saber.
Nirolak, the one think that I thought was very interesting about FE Heroes, is their is no asset reusage. While they used some of the same artists from the series proper and Cipher, they are all brand new artwork.
How is it reviewed on Amazon? Should we expect less then 80% drop in week 2
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Hm... they're adding a PVP mode to I am Setsuna for Switch. Interesting.
Dengeki
Kingdom Hearts 2.8 sells 133k with 90% sell through, 150k units shipped.
No data for Danganrompa but Dengeki gives LTD for the other Vita games, Danganrompa 1 & 2 reload at 161k (latest Famitsu LTD was 135k) and Another Episode at 109k (108k in Famitsu)
Updates for Kingdom Hearts too, 1.5 remix at 234k (226k in Famitsu) and 2.5 at 173k (148k in Famitsu)
Dragon Quest VIII on 3DS also returns on Dengeki, it's sold more than 930k there, so some 70k sold in 2016, retail + digital it should be around 970k-980k, should just barely be able to get to a million, might need an Ultimate Hits rerelease.
On another near million seller, Monster Strike is at 990k retail+digital in Famitsu.
Kingdom Hearts 2.8 sells 133k with 90% sell through, 150k units shipped.
No data for Danganrompa but Dengeki gives LTD for the other Vita games, Danganrompa 1 & 2 reload at 161k (latest Famitsu LTD was 135k) and Another Episode at 109k (108k in Famitsu)
Updates for Kingdom Hearts too, 1.5 remix at 234k (226k in Famitsu) and 2.5 at 173k (148k in Famitsu)
Dragon Quest VIII on 3DS also returns on Dengeki, it's sold more than 930k there, so some 70k sold in 2016, retail + digital it should be around 970k-980k, should just barely be able to get to a million, might need an Ultimate Hits rerelease.
On another near million seller, Monster Strike is at 990k retail+digital in Famitsu.
At least I nailed 3DS (1.888.000) and PS4 hardware (1.790.000). It's just YW3 and MHS doomed me.
For PS4 to outsell Wii in Japan, it has to sell another 9 million which would require it to sell what it sold in 2016 for the next 5 years. Good luck.
***
@Nirolak: random question - How is Terra Battle doing in Japan now? Is it dead?
Nintendo and other companies use specific dates for opening preorders with some games / systems. It doesn't have to do with supply.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Looks like FFXV did good in US.
Yup, eating crow there. FFXV did great.
DriftingSpirit
Member
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Where's the XB1 info? I didn't see anything about it.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
#3 for the month of December under cod and battlefield
DriftingSpirit
Member
I don't think that tells us much considering the games below it.
KillerMan91
Member
It was third best selling game on XBO in December. Yes that tells us that it sold decently. It's fricking december in US.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I wasn't expecting it to chart at all.
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
What's the least we can expect for FFXV? I haven't been to NPD threads ever since they got rid of SW numbers, so I don't know how much COD games sell on a monthly basis.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Just because you got one prediction it doesn't mean you're always right
no way neither Splatoon 2 nor Minecraft will sell 5mln on switch
DS times are ended years ago
It's not like I said it sold poorly.
theprodigy
Member
do you think Madden just didn't...do anything or something?
gundamkyoukai
Member
Nah things not that bad.
It's still the biggest JRPG around and XB1 user base is big in the US.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
ßig;228715314 said:
Estimates are putting it around 1.5 million at retail in december NPD.
Media Create Sell-through
01./00. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.01.12} (¥6.800) - 137.797 / NEW <86,31%> [Units shipped => 159.653]
According to Media Create, pre-orders of KH 1.5 + 2.5 for PS4 (release date March 9th) increased 30,20% this week thanks to the release of 2.8.
_____
First Day Sell-through {2017.01.19}
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥6.900) - 50%
[PS4] [PSV] Valkyria Revolution <SLG> (Sega) (¥7.990) (¥6.990) - 50%
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥4.700) - 40%
01./00. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.01.12} (¥6.800) - 137.797 / NEW <86,31%> [Units shipped => 159.653]
According to Media Create, pre-orders of KH 1.5 + 2.5 for PS4 (release date March 9th) increased 30,20% this week thanks to the release of 2.8.
_____
First Day Sell-through {2017.01.19}
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥6.900) - 50%
[PS4] [PSV] Valkyria Revolution <SLG> (Sega) (¥7.990) (¥6.990) - 50%
[3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥4.700) - 40%
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Are those sell-throughs decent then?
They're ok for Gravity and Yoshi. Yoshi will have decent legs so no problems to sell all the shipment. Gravity has good word of mouth so it might sell well on the long run too.
Valkyria is bad, word of mouth is killing it.
I played the Vita demo and it was super terrible. What was Sega thinking?