US Federal Government Shutdown | Shutdown Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Raised
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empty vessel
Member
what you guys think of this
I think Thomas Sowell is highly unpersuasive. And a bit delusional.
ZedIndyLil
Member
This Ezra Klein article about the market (non)reaction to the crisis is interesting:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/is-u-s-political-bubble-about-to-burst-.html
Basically the point is that the markets didn't react dramatically because an expectation is being baked in that this is all political theater and things will be resolved at the last minute. That, in turn, dramatically reduces the negative market feedback that could influence the political process, increasing the risk of a debt limit breach, and also of an out-of-control bubble-type market collapse.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/is-u-s-political-bubble-about-to-burst-.html
Basically the point is that the markets didn't react dramatically because an expectation is being baked in that this is all political theater and things will be resolved at the last minute. That, in turn, dramatically reduces the negative market feedback that could influence the political process, increasing the risk of a debt limit breach, and also of an out-of-control bubble-type market collapse.
Shao Kahn on the Lawn
Member
The appeal-to-emotion fallacy is the bread and butter of most conservative arguments. They dip into that well more than any other.
what you guys think of this
Yeah.
Let's see if he'd hold that same opinion if say the Dems controlled the House and demanded strict gun control legislation before they approve any spending.
Evolved1
make sure the pudding isn't too soggy but that just ruins everything
They also outright lie a lot.
Fenderputty
Banned
The meltdowns ..,
NullPointer
Member
Then let the house actually fucking vote. Go on record, "legislating by appropriation" instead of hiding behind Boehner's lack of job security.
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
what you guys think of this
The checks and balances he describes were broken when the executive branch lost the ability to control spending, since the president has to spend all the money congress tells him to.
He might not be technically wrong, but this would effectively mean the House gets 100% control over government spending without any checks or balances.
Escape Goat
Member
lulz. we don't need government. we just need glenn beck PR machine.
Oh god, the GOP implosion between tea party and Establishment GOP is delicious.
Hopefully once the govt shutdown ends, the mass media will be so busy covering the GOP civil war so WH and Dems can do their job without any distraction from GOP manbabies or the "totally liberal" media.
Hopefully once the govt shutdown ends, the mass media will be so busy covering the GOP civil war so WH and Dems can do their job without any distraction from GOP manbabies or the "totally liberal" media.
"Don't worry everybody, Glenn Beck is on the case and he brought garbage bags and rakes!"
Escape Goat
Member
If the monuments are closed then what exactly will there be to clean up?
Huh? All appropriations bill must originate in the house of representatives, Article 1 of the Constitution.
The "debt celing" is a different matter, but appropriations aren't.
Not saying I approve of what congress and the president are doing, but there you have it.
ZedIndyLil
Member
They should stay until Sunday, when DC's trash collection department runs out of money. If the Tea Party personally took care of everybody's garbage, I might respect them more.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Perhaps Beck will drive to Home Depot in his limo to pick up some Hispanic protestors, Gob style.
I tell you what, I'd still like to know where these private meetings are heading. I thought Obama and Senate Dems were not going to negotiate until the debt ceiling was raised and the gov't reopened? If they cut more spending then they allowed the GOP to get away with what they said they wouldn't allow them to get away with. We're already at sequestration levels here. How much more are the Dems willing to cut?
chaosblade
Unconfirmed Member
Starting in the House is one thing, but he's basically saying the Senate is in the wrong for not agreeing with what the House came up with.
He's saying the House is in the right because of "checks and balances" and that the majority in the House (but minority overall) has the authority to undermine the legislative process and not fund what they don't like because they're ones who originally write the bills.
So if the Senate is in the wrong for not agreeing (for good reason) and the President has no authority at all (because he effectively lost his impoundment power) that leaves all the power to the House.
Evolved1
make sure the pudding isn't too soggy but that just ruins everything
Oh I'm sure all the people there will be knee-deep in bullshit.
my guess is they'll keep "negotiating" until they reach some arbitrary "cut", go with chained CPI, or something.
it's pretty clear they won't allow a default. in the meantime the plummeting popularity of the GOP will force the House's hand into accepting something in order to end the shutdown and set their sights on a sustained debt limit. the longer it plays out the more damage it'll do to the House republicans, but at the same time they won't walk away unless they have something they can spin into a "victory"
BakedSardine
Banned
Is my math wrong or what am I missing in regards to the Healthcare.gov website problems.
There are an estimated 40M uninsured in the US and . Various government officials say they designed healthcare.gov to handle 50,000 people a day over the 180 day sign-up period. Let's assume every person visiting is actually signing up (not likely, as many will just browse for information):
50,000 x 180 = 9,000,000
You have 40M uninsured, those of which do not sign-up being subject to a penalty under the individual mandate and design a website with enough hosting capability to only handle 9M people....something doesn't add up.
There are an estimated 40M uninsured in the US and . Various government officials say they designed healthcare.gov to handle 50,000 people a day over the 180 day sign-up period. Let's assume every person visiting is actually signing up (not likely, as many will just browse for information):
50,000 x 180 = 9,000,000
You have 40M uninsured, those of which do not sign-up being subject to a penalty under the individual mandate and design a website with enough hosting capability to only handle 9M people....something doesn't add up.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
That's because that information is wrong,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/05/health-care-website-repairs/2927597/
Armoured Priest
Member
Don't know the number off of the top of my head, but some of that 40M fall under the Medicaid expansion, and should be using those resources instead.
BakedSardine
Banned
Duh, simultaneous users vs. users/day. Never listen to a politician talking about something techincal.
Don't forget Iran. Hopefully that progresses smoothly.
To be fair, that has a lot to do with Israel more than the US. I think Obama wants diplomacy. Israel has other plans.
what you guys think of this
The entire basis of this article is wrong. The continuing resolution has nothing to do with funding Obamacare. Obamacare is funded without passing the continuing resolution. The house Republicans want to defund Obamacare, which is not the same as refusing to fund it. It's an affirmative action on top of the continuing resolution, which the Democrats do not need to accept. They can shut down the Government without Democratic votes, but they can't defund Obamacare.
Also, the Senate did vote on it. It was amended to remove the extraneous provision and sent back to the house where it remains because the Speaker refuses to bring it up for a vote
Oh, and the constitution says revenue bills have to originate in the house, not spending.
Hopefully no concessions
smokeandmirrors
Banned
2 things to take away from this:
1) Sometimes the cheapest isn't always the best solution
and
2) it is incredibly hard to understand how much demand a system will undergo until you actually launch the system. Every large roll out of any system has issues, especially when you have to interface decades old systems. Legacy systems suuuuuccccckkkkkkk.
Officerrob
Banned
That's nice, but doesn't mean a damn thing until we see what's attached to it. They have to be brave/smart enough to put something on the table that will pass with Democrat votes, because anything that those tea partiers approve of will almost assuredly be full of bullshit and never get past the Senate
NullPointer
Member
come on republicans, realize this is the only way democracy works. Please let this be it.
Brolic Gaoler
formerly Alienshogun
Yes but apparently they are talking about cutting other shit. Like Medicare, federal jobs etc.
Not that I don't believe you, but source?
RustyNails
Member
You come at the king, you best not miss.
Boehner missed.
Boehner missed.
Like I posted in Poligaf:
Drudge's source is Breitbart's website (in a story in which they say the GOP is in a better position than they were in the '95 shutdown and are in a "position of strength" so take this story as you will), and the story says the deal is a six-week DL extension and only opening the government until December 15th. I don't see how that helps anyone since I know I, as a Federal Employee, am not going to be partaking in Christmas retail shopping unsure whether I'll be without a paycheck again after December 15th.
Minimum 12-month DL extension, and a full-year CR with the possibility of an actual budget superseding that if a budget compromise is reached, should be what the administration holds out for.
The longer this lasts, the more desperate the GOP will become and the more they'll give in. This is the beginning of the end.
By the middle of the week, I'd bet on a fully clean CR long term.
maquiladora
Member
So we will have to go through all this again the week before Christmas?
I thought the plan was not to accept a short term deal.
I thought the plan was not to accept a short term deal.
GillianSeed79
Member
The problem is that the Tea Party and guys like Ted Cruz believe they are in the right and actually think that people are supporting them for taking a stand. Guys like that aren't going to compromise. More moderate Republicans in the Senate like McCain are shaking their heads, but they've been branded as the establishment by the far-right. I think it all comes down to Boehner. He already nearly lost his speakership once and if he and the Republican negotiators cave and do nothing to affect the implementation of the ACA and agree to raising the debt ceiling there will be a mutiny in the house. Boehner will probably lose his speakership. He's between a rock and hard place - compromise and re-open the government to save the greater party's electoral chances but get shit canned/lose his power in the process. Or he could hold out and save his speakership but threaten the real possibility of the government defaulting, causing an economic disaster and the Republican's viability of being re-elected.
Which really just makes Boehner human scum. Trying to save his cushy job by destroying lives. He's absolutely disgusting.
Nothing has been accepted yet.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Boehner may be bad but I got a feeling the guy that replaces him will be much worse.
Takamura-San
Member
So this morning the dude that comes to mow our lawn shows up.
He usually shows up every other week. I didn't fell like having it done this week because i'm not picky about my lawn. So I made the excuse that I would let him know for next weekend, because this week is when i get paid. Somehow i think i also threw some signal about my discomfort about the current situation with the shutdown and stuff.
When he's walking to his truck, he tells me is all Obama's fault and he doesn't like him....
I don't know what to feel anymore.
He usually shows up every other week. I didn't fell like having it done this week because i'm not picky about my lawn. So I made the excuse that I would let him know for next weekend, because this week is when i get paid. Somehow i think i also threw some signal about my discomfort about the current situation with the shutdown and stuff.
When he's walking to his truck, he tells me is all Obama's fault and he doesn't like him....
I don't know what to feel anymore.
empty vessel
Member
I would take eliminating the medical device tax in exchange for reversing the sequester cuts. Whether that should be part of anything having to do with raising the debt limit and passing a budget is another matter.
TestOfTide
Banned
The medical device tax is 2.5% tax. GOP wants it cut so that the aca loses ~$20b in tax revenue.
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