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Batman v Superman Friday Boxoffice Estimate: $82M
- Thread starter Biggest-Geek-Ever
- Start date
- Status
This movie is performing like a Batman movie. There's been pretty much next to no benefit of having Superman or Wonder Woman in it, and that's likely due to the fact that Warner Bros. was unable to create the perfect storm. I don't see it hindering the movie from being a financial success, but that fumble has likely cost them a couple hundred million dollars in the grand scheme of things.
It's imploding in China from the looks of it, which isn't too surprising, but has gotten a decent to great start everywhere else internationally. It all depends on legs now, but a billion should happen with decent legs depending on what the picture is on Monday. I don't think Warner Bros. is going to be ecstatic with that number. They'll likely find it acceptable since it'll be a good financial success, but the Batman brand had to do some heavy lifting here and I'm sure they'll be concerned as to how it's been hit. $1.2 billion was more along the lines of what this movie needed to demonstrate some good growth.
This movie will underperform domestically now. $400 million is the target now from the looks of it, providing legs are decent enough, and that simply isn't impressive for Batman. It's going to be tough to hit that mark as it stands. TDK and TDKR are huge movies when you look at admissions, and this movie simply won't be unless it does the near impossible now and shows amazing legs. That's rare in general. International should end up pretty good unless it completely craters so they'll likely be happy with that.
This also cements my thoughts from a few years ago. Just like Marvel has done with Iron Man, Warner Bros. should have used Batman as the anchor of this new universe. Superman simply isn't the centrepiece. He may have cultural status and a huge legacy, but at the box office, he's not the top three. It's Batman, Iron Man, and Spider-Man. While Batman has the highest admissions, Iron Man also has Avengers which is pretty much built around him, and gives him further relevance the others don't have. Spider-Man gets the benefit of the doubt, as even with recent duology underperforming, the Raimi movies made it clear he can be very good on admissions when he connects well. It'll be easy to get him back up there with one good movie.
Fortunately for Warner, they're in a decent position at the moment. Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman should clear $500 million worldwide, with the former having a good chance of exceeding expectations. With the knowledge that Joker is in an actual role rather than a cameo, it may as well be a Batman spin-off, which will help the movie significantly. But more importantly than that, they need to be received well by enthusiasts and critics in general. They can't afford to have the kind of reception this movie has received on that end. One more meteorite like this on social media, and they'll hurt the Batman brand. It's all about perception at the end of the day. As it stands, he'll be okay considering he's universally praised as being great in this movie, and this is his introduction.
Justice League needs to take on a slightly different tone. China is important these days, and in order to take advantage of that market, they can't keep a dark and unconventional style for the movie. They need to dial it back, and make it safer in that respect. This is just a smart business move frankly.
As for Batman, I'm pretty sure they're already preparing the movie, but it'll be in their best interest to get one out in 2018. It should go Justice League, and then Batman in their slate. The rest can stay as is beyond that. Justice League needs to play it safe, and that's an easy thing to do, so Warner Bros. should check that as the movie is entering production soon. Affleck can make a good Batman so that's not a huge concern, but it's important to get that off the ground if only to make back some lost ground on the domestic front.
It's imploding in China from the looks of it, which isn't too surprising, but has gotten a decent to great start everywhere else internationally. It all depends on legs now, but a billion should happen with decent legs depending on what the picture is on Monday. I don't think Warner Bros. is going to be ecstatic with that number. They'll likely find it acceptable since it'll be a good financial success, but the Batman brand had to do some heavy lifting here and I'm sure they'll be concerned as to how it's been hit. $1.2 billion was more along the lines of what this movie needed to demonstrate some good growth.
This movie will underperform domestically now. $400 million is the target now from the looks of it, providing legs are decent enough, and that simply isn't impressive for Batman. It's going to be tough to hit that mark as it stands. TDK and TDKR are huge movies when you look at admissions, and this movie simply won't be unless it does the near impossible now and shows amazing legs. That's rare in general. International should end up pretty good unless it completely craters so they'll likely be happy with that.
This also cements my thoughts from a few years ago. Just like Marvel has done with Iron Man, Warner Bros. should have used Batman as the anchor of this new universe. Superman simply isn't the centrepiece. He may have cultural status and a huge legacy, but at the box office, he's not the top three. It's Batman, Iron Man, and Spider-Man. While Batman has the highest admissions, Iron Man also has Avengers which is pretty much built around him, and gives him further relevance the others don't have. Spider-Man gets the benefit of the doubt, as even with recent duology underperforming, the Raimi movies made it clear he can be very good on admissions when he connects well. It'll be easy to get him back up there with one good movie.
Fortunately for Warner, they're in a decent position at the moment. Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman should clear $500 million worldwide, with the former having a good chance of exceeding expectations. With the knowledge that Joker is in an actual role rather than a cameo, it may as well be a Batman spin-off, which will help the movie significantly. But more importantly than that, they need to be received well by enthusiasts and critics in general. They can't afford to have the kind of reception this movie has received on that end. One more meteorite like this on social media, and they'll hurt the Batman brand. It's all about perception at the end of the day. As it stands, he'll be okay considering he's universally praised as being great in this movie, and this is his introduction.
Justice League needs to take on a slightly different tone. China is important these days, and in order to take advantage of that market, they can't keep a dark and unconventional style for the movie. They need to dial it back, and make it safer in that respect. This is just a smart business move frankly.
As for Batman, I'm pretty sure they're already preparing the movie, but it'll be in their best interest to get one out in 2018. It should go Justice League, and then Batman in their slate. The rest can stay as is beyond that. Justice League needs to play it safe, and that's an easy thing to do, so Warner Bros. should check that as the movie is entering production soon. Affleck can make a good Batman so that's not a huge concern, but it's important to get that off the ground if only to make back some lost ground on the domestic front.
illmatic22
Banned
So, will this hit a billion?
Liquidsnake
Banned
It's always strange to me how people would come into a box office thread about a certain movie, and pray that it fails. Movies are art, as with most art you either like it or you don't, but to come in these threads and be so nasty, is something I just don't understand.
Frozenprince
Banned
They needed to do with Superman what Marvel did with Cap. Build him up enough to MAKE him a draw through 3-4 other movies he's in. Not just use him to headline the whole shebang.
Maybe.
It needs at least half of TFA's overseas gross, not counting China. Things are looking good so far, but holds next week are going to be critical.
Please find one single person here who said this would tank in the opening weekend, and is now saying it's going to tank in the second weekend instead. Thanks.
It's not locked yet
TheSlySoul
Member
It was originally projected at 200 and got moved to 170.
If it hits 150, WB is gonna have a meltdown.
The only thing I said is that it will make back its budget.
Hater.
bryanee
Member
I don't think it's ever been projected to make 200 million.
The movie has never been projected at $200 million. Tracking at its highest was about $140-160 million, and it can be a bit of a crapshoot at this end.
Monday will give a better picture of things, but the ten day mark will be more telling. It's Easter weekend right now, so Saturday is going to drop from Friday (not including previews), and Sunday will have a bigger drop than usual. Ten days will give us a good idea on its legs as well as how badly the negative buzz affected it.
BronsonLee
Member
AoU was the only one besides TFA.
I still lol at everybody just tanking on Jurassic World, that snuck up on EEEEEVERYONE
Father_Brain
Banned
AOU was definitely projected over that, though it ended up falling short.
Schweinehund
Member
BvS was projected for like 120 or so million, like 3-4 weeks out. It was certainly never projected for 200 million.
TheSlySoul
Member
Ah, I must be mistaken. I heard some bad info then.
You never know with Twitter...
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Couple different places had it at a couple different projections. According to Deadline, it was anywhere between 180-210
Sibersk Esto
Banned
There was a dude in the prediction thread who said 300 mil opening with a straight face.
I can't remember, but I think there was some kind of rights issue too which didn't help, as I know Warner Bros. was rushing Man of Steel into production. That's usually never a good thing. It did mess up the timing of it all, especially when you consider that this is only their second movie in all of this.
I don't think it's a huge deal in all fairness though. It's easy to recover from here, so if they continue to mess up, then they honestly deserve whatever backlash they receive. Play it somewhat safe with the next few movies to finish up with Justice League, and this Superman focused phase. Then start the next one with Batman. Affleck is a good director, so I don't really have any concern for the movie in his hands.
Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman will both do really well as long as you just try not to go too crazy. Women bring in the money, and that's going to position Wonder Woman very strongly as this is the first superhero movie with a woman in the lead role in a long time. Suicide Squad has Joker, Will Smith, and even a cameo from Batman. As long as these movies don't receive negative buzz, they'll course correct without any problems.
The more important thing here is to set a different tone with Justice League. That'll be a brand in itself, so you absolutely cannot do a dark and unconventional movie with that. China won't reward them there, and that's a market you want to take advantage of. BvS won't hurt anything as it stands that they can't easily recover from, but if Justice League goes through all this, they'll tank that brand's potential as soon as it begins. That, and I honestly don't think you can get anything ambitious out of a movie with six or more main characters. It's just not possible structurally so you may as well just aim to make it entertaining and structurally tight. Unless you're going to make a near four hour epic and disregard business sense, which I would actually welcome with open arms. It would be amazing if done well.
Someone predicted $4.5B for The Force Awakens as well. Every thread has a few. I'm sure someone on this site has predicted that Civil War will top TFA's opening.
Currently 7.6 on IMDB. People seem to enjoy it
Dash_Riprock
Member
TheFuzz
Member
Right, they were in danger of potentially losing the rights to the Siegel/Shuster estate and had to put Man of Steel into production by a certain point to avoid having to pay them in the event they lost the case.
They ended up winning the case anyway, so it was kind of all for naught.
Jack Remington
Banned
Yeah, but the newer audience review scores coming in are still way higher than 30% positive.
So much for this is tanking in china narrative
Do they have to pay off reality... if they have the reality stone???
Oh my god, this tweet is perfect. Ben holding a Superman dog.
Primethius
Banned
Im not sure I understand. Isn't that percentage an average?
Thus, if it had 110k fake reviews, it would understandably take some time before the percentage accurately reflected the larger consensus.
If a bad movie fails, everyone wins
Especially us the audience because we are bound to get BETTER movies and no SNYDER!
Well it hasn't.
Samurai G0SU
Member
Sad twilight is up there........
Father_Brain
Banned
That's... not how RT works.
For a majority it was an ok to meh movie... sure, fans will love and eat all that fan service on the movie, even if it comes in a forma of e-mail videos.
But for the first time ever that 2 of the biggest badass superheroes appear on the same movie, it was for sure, not as good as it deserved to be....
They should at least change writers for JL and delay the hell out of this movie
Failure is relative. It just has to be below WB's lowest expectations.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Never seen someone so depressed during the press circuit for their new movie.
CaviarMeths
Member
It just demonstrates that franchise films with a disproportionately high percentage of under 25 fans tend to have huge Thursday/Friday numbers. The only real exception on that list is Star Wars, which is just phenomenally huge among all demographics.
Nemesis121
Member
Went to 11am showing today and it was fucking packed...and when i was leaving the clerk was telling people all shows were sold out until 8pm..
Father_Brain
Banned
I find it hard to believe that WB would be sanguine about the film grossing less than $1B worldwide.
It's far too early to say for sure, but the Friday gross and the China drop make it at least a tad more likely that it won't reach that number.
Discotheque
Banned
I admire the ambition and I'm glad it exists despite the freaking often bad mess it is but it was certainly a mistake to pin the hopes of a franchise off of this.
Still I'm also freaking impressed that WB let him do this with the characters. Riskiest superhero movie since Ang Lee Hulk easily. Some of the themes were great and I at least unequivocally love the first 20 minutes.
BronsonLee
Member
Yeah, Bruce staring down Clark for being a shithead and getting thousands of people skilled in his inexperience is A+
No wonder he doesn't like his dumb ass
No wonder he doesn't like his dumb ass
Colonel Nasty
Member
I wonder what WB does next. Even if it squeaks to 1 bill, JL could come in under that, bad WoM (even if it's just 10% that won't see the sequel) and this is the event. The trinity on screen has already happened. Outside of a cast member dying i don't see how this isn't the peak of the DCU. Maybe the solo Batman movie with good critical reception.
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