Killing_Joke
Member
You notice it beat Avengers and Jurassic World right? It's not guaranteed 200Mil but the possibility is there.
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Batman v Superman Friday Boxoffice Estimate: $82M
- Thread starter Biggest-Geek-Ever
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You notice it beat Avengers and Jurassic World right? It's not guaranteed 200Mil but the possibility is there.
The real story will be how it does oversees.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
If it's an A- or an A, it can probably go either way. B+ or lower and that's simply not good for this type of film. Spider-Man 3 got a B+ and that was the first indicator that it was going to have some big time drops.
It's sounding like the Chinese total will be able to reach $120M off its $20M OD. Solid, but not an enormous gross. It may have to hold well in other countries to comfortably cross $1B.
Same amount of territories? UK and China open today.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
It's not really an indicator of anything, as people have pointed out via multiple examples in this thread.
It's unreliable as a predictor. It seems to mostly exist to add another bullet point to a poster or TV spot in the post-release marketing.
If it's there, it's about as large as Ray Fisher's cameo.
Doesn't really matter. Even if it follows MOS it's still going to bank. Most of these blockbusters are front loaded anyway. Avengers Ultron dropped 60%.
It's rare for any of these movies to truly have legs like Star Wars or Avatar.
A lot of big films didn't have the benefit of a simultaneous Worldwide release. However, looking over the top WW openings on BOM, the lowest WW total for a film that opened to over $300M WW was $830M for the last Twilight film. The lowest WW total for a $350M+ opener is $890M for Spider-man 3 (off of a $370M opening).
I think BvS will open closer to $400M worldwide, unless the $160-180M range we are throwing around for the domestic take is too high.
More or less comparable minus China. TFA might have also been a Thursday release in the UK. I don't remember.
I think BvS will open closer to $400M worldwide, unless the $160-180M range we are throwing around for the domestic take is too high.
More or less comparable minus China. TFA might have also been a Thursday release in the UK. I don't remember.
That seems about right. I'm really curious about WOM this weekend, because I have no idea where it lands in the 160-180M range?
From what I've been seeing on twitter and various sites it seems like a audience pleaser. Who knows!
It's hard to tell until we get the full weekend numbers. Grosses in Europe and Australia look pretty good. Ditto for Latin America and Asia. I think that Domestic + China will have to be around $500M for that $1B mark to be reasonably assured.
The $800M breakeven mark will happen.
So midnight/thursday screenings are about 28 million , that means at best , friday could end up with 2X that , a similar number for saturday and sunday.
So best case scenario is maybe around 196 million dollars.
However, that ratio , which is based roughly on Avengers 2 last year, assumes people generally liked the film. In BvS case, I'm reasonably sure that for the most part they do not like the film. Which means on top of poor critical reception, you've got poor fan reception. So what I'm getting at is that the big nerds that like opening weekend viewing , they went on wednesday night and thursday night. The general public will probably go today and by saturday /sunday there will be a sharp decline thanks to word of mouth from all the viewers on wednesday through to today.
So , we can still probably have 28 + 56 million by tomorrow morning but saturday ... might drop down to 40 million and that might turn into 30 million on sunday. Next weekend will probably be a 65% drop. So my actual guess is anywhere between 150 million and 175 million this weekend. Then 50-70 million for week 2 and probably 50-70 million for week 3-6 combined and maybe 50 million for the rest of the domestic run. This films success then will be determined in much the same way as a transformers disaster - foreign box office needs to be extremely high. If my guesswork above is at all correct , you might see the final domestic take being 300 - 350 million, that's probably a best case scenario really. Had the movie been phenomenally good instead of mediocre (at best) it might have done 500 million but there's a ceiling on it thanks to Man of Steel also not being that great.
So for those looking forward to a similar Justice League film , well you all better hope it does at least 1 billion world wide.
So best case scenario is maybe around 196 million dollars.
However, that ratio , which is based roughly on Avengers 2 last year, assumes people generally liked the film. In BvS case, I'm reasonably sure that for the most part they do not like the film. Which means on top of poor critical reception, you've got poor fan reception. So what I'm getting at is that the big nerds that like opening weekend viewing , they went on wednesday night and thursday night. The general public will probably go today and by saturday /sunday there will be a sharp decline thanks to word of mouth from all the viewers on wednesday through to today.
So , we can still probably have 28 + 56 million by tomorrow morning but saturday ... might drop down to 40 million and that might turn into 30 million on sunday. Next weekend will probably be a 65% drop. So my actual guess is anywhere between 150 million and 175 million this weekend. Then 50-70 million for week 2 and probably 50-70 million for week 3-6 combined and maybe 50 million for the rest of the domestic run. This films success then will be determined in much the same way as a transformers disaster - foreign box office needs to be extremely high. If my guesswork above is at all correct , you might see the final domestic take being 300 - 350 million, that's probably a best case scenario really. Had the movie been phenomenally good instead of mediocre (at best) it might have done 500 million but there's a ceiling on it thanks to Man of Steel also not being that great.
So for those looking forward to a similar Justice League film , well you all better hope it does at least 1 billion world wide.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I don't know his financial situation, but acting like 12 dollars is a lot of money is weird to me when value meals at BK are almost that much. Just weird to me is all, but I recognize his financials might be similar to mine when I was in college and I had to plan out all of my discretionary spending.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
He's not acting like 12 dollars is a lot of money. He's saying he'd like more return on his 12 dollars than just "eh."
You don't have to know his financial situation to understand what he's saying.
I can blow 12 dollars on some dumb bullshit without worrying about its financial impact on my well being. Doesn't mean I'm looking to do it anytime soon, either. Because wasting time and money still sucks, even in small increments.
A 12 dollar piece of shit is still a piece of shit. It doesn't stink less because it was only 12 bucks. And even if I can buy a hundred pieces of shit tomorrow without it negatively impacting my bottom line doesn't mean dropping a tenner on a turd was a smart call.
What did he mean by this?
Member
Despite the reviews, and my own dislike of the movie, I would not be surprised if general audiences end up liking it more than Man of Steel.
China just reported 21M. 65m total overseas and climbing.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I personally think the reviews are bandwagoning. I genuinely enjoyed the film.
My audience seemed reasonably happy with it. Wonder Woman drew applause when she appeared in costume.
My audience seemed reasonably happy with it. Wonder Woman drew applause when she appeared in costume.
Succinct Verbosity
Member
I'll see when I see it, but fan reactions seem far more mixed than reviews are making out.
Many people ignore reviews because they end up liking movies that had bad reviews. I skipped movies in the past that had bad reviews only to end up enjoying those films when I got around to watching them on cable.
When going back and looking at some of those badly reviewed movies they complain about things I'm not even thinking about while watching the movie. When I watched movies again with the complaints that critics have in mind I often see those same flaws in movies that the same critic praises. Then there are movies that the critics review well in the same genre that I can't stand. In the end I just ignore their reviews and anything anyone else feels about the films and go watch what I think I'll enjoy.
WaterAstro
Member
Transformer 4 just had China in it and made all of the Chinese nationalist flock over to the box office to watch it just because it had China.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Rth sees 81-85 currently for Friday. That high end could result in a weekend around $180M
http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...m-friday-rth-81-85m/?page=134#comment-2453558
http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...m-friday-rth-81-85m/?page=134#comment-2453558
OricWindstar
Member
Not to defend the movie, but if the job your referring to is "make a good movie," that's a pretty difficult job.
it has flaws but it's not the ultimate evil some make it out to be
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Word of mouth won't mean anything for a mixed movie like this.
This is not a kid friendly movie. That's what'll pull down its numbers.
This is not a kid friendly movie. That's what'll pull down its numbers.
Deadpool?
Aaronology
Member
My audience cheered and clapped for a good 2 minutes when she finally donned the costume. I immediately thought of GAF. "It's true, we really do clap for everything. =("
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The problem is that they have to make money on a $250m production budget plus the distribution/advertising budget AND make money on all the derivative projects that are too late to cancel.
I am going to freeze myself and have Kwinston free me when it is time
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I felt this way, fearing a "Green Lantern" experience. I ended up quite enjoying it.
Deadpool is entertaining and humorous all the way through. Obviously not for toddlers, but teenagers eat that up.
I don't see teenagers eating this up.
Because teenagers have expert opinions when it comes to movies?
WW build up + reveal was one of the best parts of the movie
we all clapped like real Americans
Then you're living under a rock because many reviewers that had luke warm reaction to the movie praised Affleck...
You should probably follow the conversation mang.
Watch it then. I had to see this film being the first time Superman and Batman were on screen together.
What I loved most was Wonder Woman though. Just found her the most exciting. I'm also a fan of her outside the film though, so that may have some effect but I've heard a lot of audiences loved her in it.
Whilst other Batman films have their strong points, I do think Ben Affleck is probably best Batman/Bruce Wayne now too, as this really shows off his technology and his great fighting ability.
Discotheque
Banned
Deadpool is a mediocre movie but it's actually fun to sit through and have a few laughs
This i hear, no matter if it's a better movie or worse, is being called boring and has uneven pacing apparently
Movies like that don't get great word of mouth. Anyways I'm tired of being in the dark about this. Finally seeing it in 2 hours
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
I knew someone would say deadpool. What I was implying was based on the properties involved, and the rating. This had the potential to do much more than deadpool. But its numbers may now be pulled down.
Chezzymann
Member
Younger teens love overtly dark and edgy stuff so that they can appear grown up
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