Support NeoGAF

[Woopah]

But they arent buying games, thats the problem. If you accept that there are more than 5 million units in Japan, not only sold, then you are going to have to explain how almost all of those 5 million are not buying any games. After the Insomniac breach, it was also clear that an unusually high digital ratio was not the reason. And F2P does not explain it either.

At least you admit that there are more than one contributing factora, contrary to previous posts where you blamed the almost non-existent sw sales solely on F2P.

Here is me clearly not saying that:

Why: I believe there are several factors that have led to this outcome so far, including:

• Rising digital rates, and the PS5 having a digital-only SKU
• The growing popularity of free to play games
• The lack of more appealing packaged games on PS5
• The high price of PS5 hardware, which led to some scalping

I've consistently brought up higher digital ratios and lack of more appealing packaged games as contributing factors.

 

[Tams]

Mario Kart 8 still demolishing everything.

Woopah Orbital2060

You two are like watching two bums fight. Carry on.

 

[Woopah]

Mario Kart 8 still demolishing everything.

Woopah Orbital2060

You two are like watching two bums fight. Carry on.

I'm sure you meant to say "two wise scholars in an intellectual discussion"

 

[Mibu no ookami]

To do that we'd have to compare to F2P playtime on PS4 no? You asked for "evidence to suggest that F2P games make up a larger percentage of games played in Japan as they are in the West". I gave you exactly what you asked for.

You gave me a chart showing that F2P as a percentage of gaming took up a marginally larger percentage than in the West. That graph does not represent a 70% drop in physical sales in relation to digital sales. We'd be seeing something similar in the West then based on this graph and we aren't.

That the Final Fantasy brand is in decline. Its selling less on PS5 than PS4, just like it sold less on PS4 than PS3. The PS5 is still benefitting from getting these exclusive FF games, even though the FF brand is in decline. I think overall software sales would be lower if FF16 and FF Rebirth hadn't released on the platform.

I don't disagree that it is in decline, but the amount of decline is probably too fast to explain what's happening here, when it is more probable that the data we're not seeing is in fact digital/online sales.

That's their job. As a professional tracking company, Media Create needs to take into account the sales from retailers they don't track. Just like how NPD did for Walmart, even when they didn't have direct access to Walmart's numbers.

They'll definitely be a margin of error just like any other tracker. But if Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft, SE, Konami, Sega, Bandai Namco etc. are all happy using Media Create's numbers, then I am too.


I agree that it would be better with digital sales. But we don't need digital sales to see the 70% difference in physical sales between the PS4 and PS5.

Is there any evidence that they are accounting for retailers they don't track?

 

[Woopah]

You gave me a chart showing that F2P as a percentage of gaming took up a marginally larger percentage than in the West. That graph does not represent a 70% drop in physical sales in relation to digital sales. We'd be seeing something similar in the West then based on this graph and we aren't.

Correct, the rise of FP2 alone would not cause a 70% decline. There are other factors at play, including the increase in digital split that you mention.

Is there any evidence that they are accounting for retailers they don't track?

Their methodology is here:

"Data is based on retail store POS. The data provider coverage rate is approximately 60%, covering a wide variety of business types. In addition, we use peripheral data such as advance reservation status, shipping status, consumption status, used trends, and qualitative information from interviews with stores as storage materials."

So when Media Create says Switch sold 4,420,035 in 2022, that's their full number for the whole market, not just the approximately 60% of the market they have direct access to point-of-sale information for.

If they didn't accout for the retailers they don't track, then 40% of Switch sales would be missing. Nintendo's shipment data has Switch at 4,680,000 for 2022, so Media Create's sell through number looks about right.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Correct, the rise of FP2 alone would not cause a 70% decline. There are other factors at play, including the increase in digital split that you mention.



Their methodology is here:

"Data is based on retail store POS. The data provider coverage rate is approximately 60%, covering a wide variety of business types. In addition, we use peripheral data such as advance reservation status, shipping status, consumption status, used trends, and qualitative information from interviews with stores as storage materials."

So when Media Create says Switch sold 4,420,035 in 2022, that's their full number for the whole market, not just the approximately 60% of the market they have direct access to point-of-sale information for.

If they didn't accout for the retailers they don't track, then 40% of Switch sales would be missing. Nintendo's shipment data has Switch at 4,680,000 for 2022, so Media Create's sell through number looks about right.

Nintendo uses Media Create's number, that doesn't mean that the number represents missing retailers or segments...

 

[Woopah]

Nintendo uses Media Create's number, that doesn't mean that the number represents missing retailers or segments...

Nintendo's shipments are based on their own data. What Nintendo uses Media Create for is sell through, not shipments.

If Media Create's numbers didn't include the untracked retailers, it would mean they only represent 60% of the retail market. This would mean Switch has actually sold over 45 million in Japan. Which obviously is not the case.

No one uses Media Create's numbers thinking they only represent the 60% of the retail market they get POS data from.

 

[Closer]

Why is this chart excluding all PSP revisions except for the Go? 2000/3000 combined sold more than 10M in Japan, and majority of that was 3000, so it would be quite high up in the list (definitely far higher than any other PS revision).

Maybe because

 

[nial]

Why is this chart excluding all PSP revisions except for the Go? 2000/3000 combined sold more than 10M in Japan, and majority of that was 3000, so it would be quite high up in the list (definitely far higher than any other PS revision).

PSP Go, PS Vita TV and PS4 Pro (and soon PS5 Pro) are the only PlayStation revisions to get separate data. But it's very easy to make your own estimates, virtually every PSP console sold from October 2007 to October 2008 was a 2000 model.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Nintendo's shipments are based on their own data. What Nintendo uses Media Create for is sell through, not shipments.

If Media Create's numbers didn't include the untracked retailers, it would mean they only represent 60% of the retail market. This would mean Switch has actually sold over 45 million in Japan. Which obviously is not the case.

No one uses Media Create's numbers thinking they only represent the 60% of the retail market they get POS data from.

You're assuming software and hardware are the same. There are plenty of retailers that are only going to sell software or at least they aren't selling hardware in large numbers.

Also, the advent of online retail has grown significantly since the pandemic, so using media create in 2019 isn't the same as using it in 2024.

The same is true of digital retail. Both have grown significantly and significantly as a percentage of overall retail since the pandemic.

So the amount Media Create would be off by is probably more so now than pre peak pandemic where even the Switch had sold most of its units.

 

[Three]

PSP Go, PS Vita TV and PS4 Pro (and soon PS5 Pro) are the only PlayStation revisions to get separate data. But it's very easy to make your own estimates, virtually every PSP console sold from October 2007 to October 2008 was a 2000 model.

I think revision here was treated more like "separate version of product". So anything that replaced the original product was not considered a separate product in sales. The pro, go and vita tv were separate products sold alongside the original products (that had multiple revisions themselves), if that makes sense.

 

[Fafalada]

Maybe because

PSP Go, PS Vita TV and PS4 Pro (and soon PS5 Pro) are the only PlayStation revisions to get separate data. But it's very easy to make your own estimates, virtually every PSP console sold from October 2007 to October 2008 was a 2000 model.

Ok yea that explains the omissions.
And indeed - 2008 onwards is all 3000(minus the 180k GOs), which gives a range of 8-10M for 3000.

I think revision here was treated more like "separate version of product". So anything that replaced the original product was not considered a separate product in sales.

Then DS Lite shouldn't be on that list either. I think it's clearly the lack of available data from any official source (and estimates like above don't count).

 

[Three]

Then DS Lite shouldn't be on that list either. I think it's clearly the lack of available data from any official source (and estimates like above don't count).

Yeah, the list is pretty useless as a chart because Nintendo and Sony separate/track hardware sales differently.

 

[nial]

I think revision here was treated more like "separate version of product". So anything that replaced the original product was not considered a separate product in sales. The pro, go and vita tv were separate products sold alongside the original products (that had multiple revisions themselves), if that makes sense.

Then DS Lite shouldn't be on that list either. I think it's clearly the lack of available data from any official source (and estimates like above don't count).

It's either cuz of its different name, or because the original DS was in production alongside the Lite model for a few months.

 

[Woopah]

You're assuming software and hardware are the same. There are plenty of retailers that are only going to sell software or at least they aren't selling hardware in large numbers.

Also, the advent of online retail has grown significantly since the pandemic, so using media create in 2019 isn't the same as using it in 2024.

The same is true of digital retail. Both have grown significantly and significantly as a percentage of overall retail since the pandemic.

So the amount Media Create would be off by is probably more so now than pre peak pandemic where even the Switch had sold most of its units.

That would only make sense if you believe that the retailers who sell all the hardware just so happen to be in the 60% that Media Create tracks directly. And that the other 40% (including Amazon) sold next to 0 Switches in the whole of 2022.

Let's look at software sells anyway. Media Create said that in 2022, Kirby and the Forgotten land sold 1,129,204 copies at retail.

a) If Media Create do take untracked retailers into account, then this number represents all the physical copies sold in Japan that year.

b) If they don't take untracked retailers into account, then Kirby's physical sales would be much higher; since there's all the sales from the other 40% of the physical market to take into account.

Which of these do you think is right?