Okay thanks. So then, around 60 million sold WW by E3 is probably a pretty reasonable bet.
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February 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 7th
Okay thanks. So then, around 60 million sold WW by E3 is probably a pretty reasonable bet.
Next month should be interesting. We'll see Sony results for entire fiscal year. Their goal is 60 mil. PS4s shipped by end of the March.
ethomaz
Banned
Well it is pretty hard I guess... 5 million in 3 slow months.
More about 58 million at E3.
Unless they flood the channels with stock I can't see Sony hitting their target of 60 million sold in with the numbers we currently have for them. I think they expected the Slim to resonate a bit better and put them regularly up YoY in combination with the Pro bit that didn't really happen. It seems clear that the Pro is performing to expectations but I think the Slim is performing worse than they had originally forecasted hence the gap.
Sony was sitting at 57.1M sold-in at the end of last quarter. Roughly looking at the numbers Sony actually sells through about a million worldwide every month in non Holidays months. That rate is enough for them to clear 60M sell in by the end of March. Even if they have do channel stuffing 60M shipped is a lock. Remember it is better to channel stuff (and discount later) than to miss their stated target.
As far as slim is concerned, they would have revised their numbers in the last report if they thought that slim is not selling according to their projection and they won't hit 60M as a result.
As far as slim is concerned, they would have revised their numbers in the last report if they thought that slim is not selling according to their projection and they won't hit 60M as a result.
CosmicQueso
Member
Sure. Welfare just asked me why I thought Xbox One might be down YoY. I think something like the Scorpio announce and talk can make the difference between very slight growth and very slight decline. Nothing to do with the PS4.
ethomaz
Banned
Yeap I agree.
ethomaz
Banned
Guys I have a bit o time and used it to surf on Twitter 
This was posted before?
https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/839952513797193728
Edit - This reply was funny https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/839954697767100416
This was posted before?
https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/839952513797193728
Edit - This reply was funny https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/839954697767100416
Uno Venova
Banned
Man NPD results don't even get their own threads anymore, I miss when these were a big deal.
ethomaz
Banned
Now you got my attention
Why do you think it's the Pro that is meeting expectations and that the Slim is underperforming and not vice-versa?
Not saying you're incorrect, just curious how you came to that conclusion?
Nothing exciting I was responding to Cosmic's Osborne effect post thinking he was speaking of XB vs. PS4 and not realizing he was speaking of XB being down YoY.Now you got my attention
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
If the gap is less than last month (jan) xbox will be up. If it's more xbox is likely down. Too bad there are no leaks.
Unknown?
Member
I don't think that'll be hard to achieve. If they don't make it, it'll just be very shy. Probably not even a million shy.
Well there been comment on the sales of Pro exceeding expectation. It seems like they had very modest expectations for Pro overall whereas there has been no comment as far as I can tell about the success of the Slim and it meeting expectation. While that could always just be standard PR Pro actually has seemed a bit supply limited off and on at certain retailers like Amazon and there's also the matter of certain areas WW struggling to meet demand at all.
Contrast that with the Slim which failed to push unit sales up YoY prior to Pro launch despite a lower price point.
Also the feel months of data we do have for the split of Pro exceeded most people's expectations including my own.
Please do not mistake this is as saying that PRo is the main driver sales that's not what I'm saying at all. I'm just saying the Pro seems to have met and exceeded expectations going by what we know currently where as Slim despite making up by far the largest portion of total sales doesn't seem to be performing to the degree that Sony would have expected if their forecasts are to be believed. It seems like the only thing that explains the gap between forecast and reality given the still short supply Pro has in much of Asia.
So yea nothing concrete mostly just conjecture based off of the smattering of data and statements we have access to.
You sure did disappear after me and others tried to explain why your line of reasoning on how XB1 would likely take the month was extremely flawed.
The chances of the gap being smaller on a per unit basis in a month where dramatically more sales occur is slim to none. It could theoretically happen but it's extremely unlikely going by what we know currently. There is really no factor to explain what such an event would require: mainly a sizeable increase over current trends in demand for XB1 and a sizeable decline over current trends of PS4. In fact, most of the factors at play for the month favor the PS4s chances of being above expectation not below it.
Edit: This was an incredibly insulting post by you.
Basically, what you're saying, Pro did better than expected and slim did worse than expected that it all balanced out at the end. PS4 is the Even Steven of Consoles.
Hey, don't give me that look. I'm just filling in for Slavesnyder *timecard punch out*
Humdinger
Gold Member
On the upside, it's a lot easier to read now, if you check in only occasionally (vs. hang around GAF constantly). Back in the day, you had to wade through dozens (hundreds?) of pages to figure out what the data actually were. Now you just have to read a page or two.
I do wish we got actual numbers, though. I miss the pie.
That is some interesting commentary there. So do you think Sony will refresh PS4 again this year? I mean add some features or they will just reduce the price?
I honestly have no idea. The market has shown that UHD BluRay isn't as compelling a selling point as many of us thought it would be. But doing so will give them more room for price reduction and if anything I would assume that's the route they would go (further reduction in price) rather than releasing another sku. Especially since they already have two separate models of PS4 already. Just doesn't seem all that likely to me that they'd iterate again so shortly after releasing an existing iteration. But hey who knows it could happen.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
how dare I not spend 24/7 in a gaming forum, which apparently is the same as vanishing now, also I said if the ps4 won it's likely the gap was close.
Also you and others barely explained anything. Looking back it was basically just you. Even then you didnt deny the possibility the trend of xbox one going up and ps4 going down.
Primethius
Banned
UHD was like BC. More important for warring on GAF then anything else.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yes!
It was funny when people thought these two were supposed to be game changers.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
It's funny you guys are making fun of console wars on had by engaging in console wars.
It may be uhd has helped play a part in current Xbox One sales instead of "winning" . I'd say the S doing well is based on such extra features.
Nothing they said had anything to do with consoles wars. Plenty people overstated the importance of BC and UHD Drive that's a fact.
Primethius
Banned
Helping slightly is not a game changer and no comment engaged in console wars. What are you reading?
Until we get numbers, the accuracy of your original prediction remains to be seen. So far, like everyone else predicted, PS4 won. The gap between Xbox One and PS4 remains unknown but based on Microsoft's PR, it would seem that Xbox being up YOY is in question. Whenever Xbox was up YOY in the last few months, they made a point to call attention to that. This time they didn't.
Again, until we get real numbers, we won't know the gap or Xbox YOY. From what we do know, it's as Rex pointed out -- there was never any reason to believe Xbox had a chance to beat PS4 in February. It will be the same in March too. Xbox seems to be reverting back to its normal non-holiday, non-Xbox One S performance relative to PS4.
gundamkyoukai
Member
If you used to lurk before you join you would see why they said that .
Even in PS4pro threads having no UHD was seen as a big deal .
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
The UHD drive on the X1 did nothing to help the gap, and will continue to be irrelevant.
Next up - Scorpio.
Sony had the real perspective on both.
UHD -> They just reported a massive write down($1 billion) on their movie division due to the collapse in sales of physical media. Streaming has well and truly taken over.
BC -> PS3 showed it meant nothing over the long term(it was cut). You buy a new console for the new games.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
Two things.
They had been up yoy multiple times without saying so.
We have no trend of returning to "normal" we had two months were the pro was the reason for victory, barely, and one month where the Xbox One had its best January while the ps4 took another decrease. Normal post holiday xbox would have the Xbox down you and consistent 60-100k gaps. I don't know if you remember before the Xbox slim last year, we are nowhere near that.
Now whether or not Xbox will win some months is another question but the S has had nothing but positive results so far otherwise.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
Learn to read, it's clearly one of the reasons the S is doing well. I never said "win" half you people making fun of console wars sure like starting console wars.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Maybe you should take your own advice. No one is doing what you're saying. Pointing out how overstated the impact of UHD and BC was=/=console warring. You're projecting.
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
How would I have known that if I wasn't here to see people overstating uhd here? Use your head.
Primethius
Banned
My post literally mentioned warring on GAF. Maybe don't jump the gun if you weren't here to see it happen?
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
I literally just responded to him based on your post, are you even reading?
hanspampel
Banned
it's the tone of the comments that are being made here
some people can express their thoughts about different matters in a calm and objective way. other more often than not sound very invested and overstepping.
take the word irrelevant as example
a post stating an USP is irrelevant as a fact and making it sound like not even discussable could be disregarded as default unlike that word is just used to "make a point".
UHD and BC are as irrelevant or not, like all the Ps4 niche exclusives
Maybe in the grand sheme of things those are not the most important factors, but they do matter
in 5 days the npd press release will come out and you will see a topic like this:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1344971
These are going to be the npd threads now? How do I find the list of how well each software sold and all that. People are talking Xbox vs ps4 but they had more than that. Not to mention if they post the results and you aren't keeping an eagle eye on this thread that would be hard to find again since it already builds up pages of responses before results come out (and I don't see that they don't edit the first response to show results).
This is the predictions thread No one made a results thread.
Mikey Jr.
Member
I think that BC coming late in the gen really didn't do MS too many favours.
If BC was there day 1 and a touted feature, I think MS would have probably beat PS4 in NA a majority of months, especially early into the gen.
ethomaz
Banned
Last month was already a big gap (50k+)... I can only see a minimum 100k gap this month.
XB1 is probably down yoy.
Yeah I know. I saw some people saying something about this being the npd thread now and didn't see a results thread so was wondering if they are just using his one for all of it now. Though reading through the info I'm curious about wont be out until March npd anyways (I wanna know how well horizon did). But, are they going to post an npd thread or is it just going to get posted somewhere in the predictions thread from now on?
Ah. I'm used to it being posted a few days after the deadline.
Primethius
Banned
So you responded to a post that was responding to me which was referring to GAF despite you not having been here and lack the knowledge to adequately address the statement.
What am I missing?
Comparing a feature set to games that are only niche in particular markets.
What a strange nonsensical comparison.
This is so true, missed opportunity not having it at launch.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I was wondering why this thread got so much activity lately...
*sees thread*
nope
Edit:
There was a January one? I think I completely missed that one.
*sees thread*
nope
Edit:
There was a January one? I think I completely missed that one.
ethomaz
Banned
The state the XB1's OS was launched (rushed) I can see how MS could work on BC in time for launch.
It is not like they missed the opportunity... they couldn't do in time.
BTW PS3 launch with BC and didn't help with sales... what makes you think XB1 with BC at launch could be different?
The Gorby Congressmanz
Banned
Last month (jan) Xbox One was not only up but it had it's best january ever. I think we can say its a trend if the February gap is bigger than January and Xbox One was more than 1% down yoy.
ethomaz
Banned
Best January ever was not any accomplishment with previous January numbers... 157k was low no matter what MS says to you via PR.
Without new releases, price cut/deals XB1 trends to be down yoy in 2017 until holidays.
PS4 trends to be down this year too but the base number is way high than XB1.