DriftingSpirit
Member
But how well will Switch hold? Stock, typically low summer months, etc...Will be and PS4 in second for next months. Sales of these consoles in Q2 are usually low.
But how well will Switch hold? Stock, typically low summer months, etc...Will be and PS4 in second for next months. Sales of these consoles in Q2 are usually low.
But how well will Switch hold? Stock, typically low summer months, etc...
Who said that?
With holiday sales now making up over 50% of the yearly hardware sales, i doubt they care that much for "preseason"
Funny how basically everything changed this gen. Before games were holiday and hardware was all year long.
Now games are all year long and hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday season
It is like MS saying only second-half of 2016 did matter for sales lol... oh I see we've returned to calling the majority of the year of sales "preseason" now. If you think any company doesn't care how their product sells for 8 months of the year you are sorely mistaken.
Funny to see this return after seeing the same people attribute such significance and meaning to "preseason" sales months so recently. Old habits die hard I suppose.
"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again. There is nothing new under the sun."
With holiday sales now making up over 50% of the yearly hardware sales, i doubt they care that much for "preseason"
Funny how basically everything changed this gen. Before games were holiday and hardware was all year long.
Now games are all year long and hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday season
It is like MS saying only second-half of 2016 did matter for sales lol
lol this was great while it lasted
It is like MS saying only second-half of 2016 did matter for sales lol
No they didn't. They stated they were the top selling console in the second half of the year. That isn't some sort of spin.
Even if we don't get numbers We will know when the gap is small, Windows central will probably post them. Always found it suspicious how they had numbers out of nowhere for two months the gap was close and now they are coincidentally absent.
It was still funny and felt lile loser... same for the preseason comment imo.No they didn't. They stated they were the top selling console in the second half of the year. That isn't some sort of spin.
You doubt they care? Of course they care...you really think they don't care??
Man I though you were objective in your everlasting fight in defense of Xbox but I see they were just words
but why do i even bother to answer. your post makes your intention as clear as possible![]()
Even if we don't get numbers We will know when the gap is small, Windows central will probably post them. Always found it suspicious how they had numbers out of nowhere for two months the gap was close and now they are coincidentally absent.
I know this might come off as salty but honestly Idk if Jez has any actual insiders or if people at MS just use him as a controlled leak. Notice how he got NPD numbers twice when it was close then nothing when the gaps were bigger? Plus Aaron retweeted those articles almost instantly
He was also the one that was told Scalebound was officially cancelled aswell. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but that's what I think. His "leaks" always play it too safe IMO
This is what I said in another thread few days ago
Could be way off base & I don't know the guy at all but that's the impression I get from his "sources"
In terms of demand I believe Switch will hold well. If Nintendo didn't drop the ball they will score some victories because PS4 isn't a great seller in this period.
I wouldn't be surprised by this. The thought crossed my mind as well. Odd coincidence that someone gave him numbers for the first two months the Pro was released. Putting the PS4 numbers out there benefited Microsoft much more than Sony. But I digress. That's neither here nor there now.
I just wish we had more concrete data to go by so we can have good discussion again. Completely understand and support NPD's right to protect their business. Just sucks for anyone who had a genuine interest in analyzing and having a healthy, non-console warring debate about the data. Just knowing who won can only carry us so far.
Highest Switch sales in history!Well, we haven't heard nothing from Nintendo in NPD for a very long time. Curious to see what they will say next month.
Europe... I don't remember anything from US except GameStop comment that doesn't give any conclusion.Highest Switch sales in history!
Well, there has been some consolidation toward the holiday season in the U.S. You're right that it's always been by far the strongest segment of the year, but it's been stronger still during this gen. Here's what I have for numbers (some years missing from gappy data):I never lived this gen described here lol
Holiday always had strong sales compared with the rest of the year by a huge margin.
NOV/DEC AS PORTION OF ANNUAL SALES
PS2
2002 47.3%
2003 44.1%
2004 36.2%
2005 36.6%
2006 43.8%
Xbox
2002 47.2%
2003 50.6%
2004 43.6%
GCN
2002 46.4%
2003 58.4%
2004 50.5%
2005 51.8%
[B]AVG OF GEN 6: 46.4%[/B]
Xbox 360
2006 41.8%
2007 44.0%
2008 48.1%
2009 44.6%
2010 47.8%
2011 46.7%
PS3
2007 49.4%
2008 31.1%
2009 47.8%
2010 40.1%
2011 40.7%
Wii
2007 37.1%
2008 41.2%
2009 52.8%
2010 51.3%
[B]AVG OF GEN 7: 44.3%[/B]
WiiU
2013 58.1%
2014 52.1%
2015 52.2%
PS4
2014 40.5%
2015 54.4%
2016 52.5%
Xbox One
2014 57.8%
2015 54.3%
2016 53.1%
[B]AVG OF GEN 8: 52.8%[/B]
Europe... I don't remember anything from US except GameStop comment that doesn't give any conclusion.
I'm holding a > 500k prediction for March.
That means > 476k of Wii in 7 days.Switch is the fastest selling Nintendo launch in the US for the first 5 days. Reggie said this in a Facebook livestream. It is easy to guess it is already >500K. >700K debut is likely.
That means > 326k of Wii in 7 days.
Yeap 476k... sorry my mistake.Wii did 476K in 7 days. It was in the November 2006 NPD for one week.
Also what thread is the new tag from?
Well somebody sure seems agitated by analysis and logical conjecture. Fun fact: saying people didn't do something after they did exactly that doesn't make it any less true. Multiple people explained the flaws and baseless logical leaps in certain arguments. Shame that this seems to be the only thing that can get thes threads moving anymore.
For the record re: UHD Drive I was merely pointing out that I and others thought it would be a bigger factor than it appears it actually is so far. There were also those explaining that it wasn't as big of a selling point as many seemed to think like Abdiel. It wasn't my intention to stir up a war about the value of SW support versus OS/HW features. I see no point in such a comparison since it essentially impossible to determine the impact such software or features have on the general appeal or sales of HW. Please let's not be sidetracked from genuine discussion and analysis by silly improbable quibbles.
Not in mine only you did. Maybe you forget I'm new here. But in case you were being serious go back and read.
despite having two comprehensive posts responding to your arguments breaking down exactly why they weren't reasonable.you and others barely explained anything.
Being up YoY is good but not when the previous year posted incredibly low sales for the first few months of the year. While PS4 was down YoY it also outslold the XB1 by about 50k units or by roughly 33% that month. Last year saw PS4 selling 230k units in January whereas as XB1 sold only 132k. While it's impressive that XB1 was up so much YoY the gap was so large last year that they were still outsold despite PS4 being down. Context is important. Somehow you think a month where PS4 last year saw 405k units sold in comparison to the 248k units of XB1s sold that the PS4 will be down so much YoY and the XB1 will be up so much YoY that it will end up winning the month? There's absolutely nothing to indicate such a dramatic shift in demand.
There are plenty enough tax returns happening in February to boost sales for electronics. Just look at last year's figures. Again CONTEXT. Nobody is saying all tax returns happen in a February.
A ven diagram of people buying a switch at launch and people purchasing an XB1s or PS4 Slim/Pro this late in the game is unlikely to overlap much at all. Main reason? Price/perceived value. Another? Low initial stock shipments from Nintendo. Generally speaking Nintendo appeals to any entirely different market of ppl than the other manufacturers do which is the main reason why their success is very good for the industry as a whole.
I think you mean context. Percentage only tells part of the story. You need the actual sales figures to give it context.
For example:
Paul sells one egg and 5 pickles to Susie one week and then 2 eggs and 4 pickles the next.
Now Paul still sold more pickles than eggs despite his egg sales increasing 100% WoW and his pickle sales declining 20% WoW. Thus % change and trends are only part of the picture it means nothing without the added context of actual sales.
for some reason :Looking back it was basically just you.
I'm with Rex on this one for all of the reasons he provided. We could all be wrong of course but there's just nothing that suggests demand for Xbox propelled it high enough to beat PS4 considering the gap between the two in January and last February and content-wise. Realistically, the only question is how much did PS4 outsell Xbox by, not whether it did or not. And that's what I suspect we'll have fun discussing on Thursday. If not, then I'll gladly admit I got it wrong.
It's funny you guys are making fun of console wars on had by engaging in console wars.
It may be uhd has helped play a part in current Xbox One sales instead of "winning" . I'd say the S doing well is based on such extra features.
Learn to read, it's clearly one of the reasons the S is doing well. I never said "win" half you people making fun of console wars sure like starting console wars.
How would I have known that if I wasn't here to see people overstating uhd here? Use your head.
I literally just responded to him based on your post, are you even reading?
While MS may well be seeing some YoY sales growth, any momentum in closing the gap and gaining market share was either illusory or is now spent.
This ship has sailed a long time ago, Xbox One is condemned to sell less than PS4. Only Scorpio can change the standard of the current market.
Lack of good exclusive games has got to be hurting XBox. I feel bad for the XBoxers out there reading about these great, new games for Nintendo and Playstation; they've got to be feeling like Charlie Brown.
Can we please not do the whole console war thing here. You cna go to basically any other thread on the front page for that right now. Theres no need to stir this up in a sales focused thread.
Xbox One Scorpio is just another Xbox one so I don't see it doing anything.This ship has sailed a long time ago, Xbox One is condemned to sell less than PS4. Only Scorpio can change the standard of the current market.
Not console wars at all. Rave reviews for console exclusive games like Nier Automata, Horizon Zero Dawn and Breath of the Wild have got to be affecting XBox sales.
I feel bad for the XBoxers out there reading about these great, new games for Nintendo and Playstation; they've got to be feeling like Charlie Brown.
Zhuge@Chartz said:Here is the thing.
The NPD threads posted here and on other forums, such as NeoGAF, have always relied on 'leaked' numbers since 2010 when NPD stopped reporting numbers themselves.
The NPD Group is a research firm that tracks point of sale transactions of Video Games in the US. They are able to account for around 95% of the market and use a propriatary algorithm to account for the remaining 5%. Only paid subscribers are able to access NPD's data release each month and any redistribution of that proprietary and confidential data is illegal without NPD's prior consent.
So in effect, all the 'leaks' posted here over the many years have technically been illegal (Unless NPD posted the data themselves or authorised companies/individuals to release certain bits of data). Right now no one is willing to risk their job, and rightly so, to leak NPD data to a forum so that a few (apologies for this phrase) fanboys can gloat that their preferred plastic box is selling more than another plastic box. The data that NPD distributes is of value to many in the industry and there is a reason they charge for it.
That being said, I'm not going to pretend that I wouldn't want NPD to release more data publicly. High level discussion can happen and has happened in the past through these small 'leaks', which I believe are fairly immaterial to NPD's overall business anyway.
A more transparent games industry from platform holders, publishers, retailers and market researchers is a good thing in my opinion. There are of course reasons why many of the above wouldn't want that, and that's why NPD doesn't release much publicly, but at the same time we're seeing more relevant data being released given the huge change and growth going on in the industry right now.
For example, platform holders and publishers are talking more about about how live service games are performing by sharing engagement and spend metrics. Publishers are also talking about how the shift to digital has increased gross margin percentage. Sony has plenty of data out there about how Network is the driver for platform holders this gen and Microsoft's Xbox Live data agrees with that. There are free services such as SteamSpy and Sensor Tower which track the PC and Mobile market farily accurately. If you look for data on relevant topics of today then you'll find it.
The issue I see is that not many people actually care about discussing all of that. Any time there is a discussion around the above it usually devolves into console wars fairly soon. That's unfortunately why I'm no longer as active as I was in forums like these because any long post I write is ignored or any data I talk about is used for console wars. Do note that I'm not calling out anyone here. I'm just saying that in general it seems that there aren't many people left who geniuinely want to discuss the health and future of the industry anymore.
Anyway. I'm not entirely sure what I wanted to say in this post. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I hope more people who are geniuinely interested in the games industry can have and use data to drive high quality discussions and come to conclusions about the current state and future of the industry. I also hope that high quality discussion of said data doesn't devolve into console wars in every thread like I seem to be seeing these days. Unfortunately I completely understand why many people do 'care' about console wars. I almost went down that path myself once when I was younger.
I don't know about changing fates or anything, but I think that by sheer length of pre-orders it should do more than 200k in its opening month. Whether hat be October or November etc
I mean if it's announced in June at e3, you should be able to get early adopters hyped for it and then there's 5 months to go. Sony showed the pro off at the same time as unveiling a cheaper slim model and they did it at the beginning of the holiday season. I think the more lead time and the more you hype it up the better. Just to clarify I'm not saying it's going to do gangbusters or anything so don't blow it out of proportion
blah?
Zhuge had some things to say on the topic
Zhuge had some things to say on the topic of the lack of leaks and the decline in meaningful sales discussion on forums like ours that I feel is relevant to share
Can't say I disagree with any of it unfortunately. Hoping the discussion can return to form eventually.
I had originally intended to just take the NPD numbers slightly skew them and make another brand that would have as close to NPD numbers as possible without being NPD numbers, but i realized that plan would likely sent me to court since NPD seems to be the only one doing tracking and can prove it and I can't it would be obvious I actually was just trying to find a loophole to leak their numbers.
Guys I have a bit o time and used it to surf on Twitter
This was posted before?
https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/839952513797193728
Edit - This reply was funny https://twitter.com/MatPiscatella/status/839954697767100416
You know it's pretty sad situation when we get more numbers from PAL markets than from US. Why can't every bigger country have situation like Japan =/. Three different trackers releasing free weekly hardware and software charts...
Are there companies in PAL or Japan that collects the data then charges for access to it?
I'm guess no, and that's the bottom line. It is what it is. BTW - not criticizing this practice, just stating facts.