Maybe sales drop 80%, but what if the number of downloads is huge
Let's say your average AAA game would normally sell 3M copies in one month.
3*70= 210 Million
It loses 80% of its sales.
3*0.8= 2.4M
which means:
2.4*70 = 168 M dollars of lost revenue.
now. let's say GP is on average 15USD. to compensate for the revenue lost:
revenue lost/cost of subscription = 168/15 = 11.2
GP would need 11.2 million new subscribers to compensate for that revenue lost.
if we think in each subscription as a a "sale" we are taking an increase of almost 300% required sales (people buying the game at 15 USD) to make the same amount of money.
This is just to exemplify the insane amount of money Xbox is leaving on the table.
You can try to spin this all you want, the fact is, the revenue lost is always an unknown subtraction in your final equation.
and the game studio makes big money on mtx,
usually Free to Play games are the ones implementing MTXs/Battle-season passes
those two are basically the subscription to the game and subscribing to GP just to play F2P games is absurd and far less valuable.
oh, but you get free skins if you play via GP.... and who is paying for those?....
and also the MS fee they pay to devs.
... GP didn't solve any problems; in fact, it has created many more issues for MS and developers publishing on Xbox.
as i said many times:
Game Pass has killed impacted the economy of games on Xbox; that's why Xbox is going third party, not for growth, but as a way to compensate for what they have lost (their own storefront within their ecosystem).
Its like saying Adobe should be going bankrupt by now since I dont think they even sell Photoshop anymore for years. People got to sub plan it and Adobe makes money that way. Copies sold has been 0 for years.
This doesn't apply for several reasons.
1. Adobe is a professional product.
2. It transitioned to a service when it was already an industry standard, which basically forced all its consumers to subscribe.
3. You can't buy stand-alone licenses for its current software