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[HyperionX]

Look at this way, by the time the PSP will have 500k units the DS will have around 2.8M. By the time the PSP will have a million, the DS should be in the neighborhood of 5M (assume PSP sells 1M by March 2005 by which the DS will have 5M). This is the strongest launch for Nintendo of any console or handheld AFAIK. It seems to me that the DS is clearly on the path of being the GBA replacement, which if that is the case will mean that they'll sell a gazillion DSes, especially if they make a price cut to $100 sometimes next year. If that is the case then I predict that:

end of 2005:
DS: 10-15 million
PSP: 3-5 million

end of 2006:
DS: 35-45 million
PSP: 10-15 million

end of 2007:
DS: 65-75 million
PSP: 20-25 million

These sales numbers are vaguely in line with the GBA/GBASP for the DS, which would in fact be somewhat conservative seeing how the DS launch is better than the GBA launch. I'm just guessing for the PSP though. After that, around the 2007-2008 timeframe, DS2/GBA2 comes out killing any long term chance for the PSP to take off.

So judging by it's strong launch, ability to replace the GBA with its backwards compatibility, and strong Nintendo dominance in the handheld market I claim that the DS has already won. Any opinions?

 

[Triumph]

Hello Jr. Member! If you seriously think that PSP will only sell through 3-5 million units by the end of 2005, I have a bridge I'd like to sell to you.

Or to use your language, I have a sealed copy of Zeruda: Passion of Bork just for you!

 

[Doogdogg]

This should be a lot of fun.

 

[Memles]

*Smacks Forehead*

Just...look. You were going fine until you starting inventing hypothetical hardware sales for the system for 2007. Well, you probably shouldn't have mentioned numbers at all. Maybe should have left out letters too. And, a post of just punctuation would be odd, so might as well have not posted at all.

DS will NOT be the successor to the GBA and will NOT sell as many units as the GBA/GBASP have. That is very simply a fact.

 

[GaimeGuy]

neither has "won" yet.

Jesus neither has been out for two weeks in japan yet, and people are already predicting the finish five year or so from now. -_-

 

[neptunes]

 

[Bishman]

It is only a matter of time until consumers see that the PSP slaps the NDS in the face.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Simple answer: No
Extended answer: Dreamcast

Is this thread gonna be locked before reaching page 2? Most likely

 

[king zell]

does it really matter?!

BTW PSone sold only 24k in its frist week in Japan...

 

[Liono]

I think those DS numbers have suprised a lot of us, but telling from what's already happening with the PSP in Japan, and the fact that it's going to appeal to a much wider audience than the DS-- I think it will be a slaughter in the long run.

 

[Kobun Heat]

1) I don't really expect DS numbers to be right in line with GBA's, if only because the GBA is still a viable option right now for handheld buyers. When it launched, the GB and GBC were some seriously old news.

2) Hasn't Sony said that their production capacity for PSP is three million units per year? Obviously this won't always be the case, and of course Sony likes to joke around about numbers, but...

 

[mashoutposse]

Are you honestly predicting that the DS will outsell the PSP 3:1 even AFTER they're on store shelves and available for comparison? Not realistic, IMO.

 

[Fixed2BeBroken]

lol, those are some funny numbers.

 

[Izzy]

1)

2) Hasn't Sony said that their production capacity for PSP is three million units per year? Obviously this won't always be the case, and of course Sony likes to joke around about numbers, but...

No, that's 3 million before the end of this financial year.


On topic: PT, is that you?

 

[Spiritreaver]

I agree with most of the comments here. Don't take the PSP lightly by any means, if the demand at launch today was any clue to you, it's definitely going to be popular and a hit, I never expected any less. Whether either keep steam for years is beyond any of us and to make claims for either is really gliding on thin ice.

I was pretty skeptical of the PSP myself initially, before price and such were announced. But I've definitely grown pretty hyped for it. It's turning out to be the first piece of Sony gaming hardware I *really* like. It almost feels like the days after the GBAalbet was unveiled. It still needs a lot of work on that line-up though. For me personally anyways. I only still see a handful of titles, albeit a large handful, that I'm looking forward. The DS dwarfs that amount for me.

 

[explodet]

Nobody's won nothin' yet, keep your pants on.

 

[snapty00]

I think if you talk to people who have seen both the DS and PSP, you'll get the impression that DS really isn't going to be sitting pretty a year from now. I really, really, really think Nintendo underestimated the pull of attractive graphics. Whether Nintendo likes it or not, I think most people are still looking for excellent graphics instead of some weird input methods, particularly in the handheld market where 2D graphics have been the mainstay for so long.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

So...you from Reuters, Hyper? Gamespot? Edge? Famitsu?

Like consoles, until all of them have left the gate, expect nothing. Not in this business, at least.

 

[Zerodoppler]

The PSP will indeed slaughter all competition. Though because I'm retarded and happen to like Nintendo games, I'll get both

 

[Miburou]

It's actually more like this:

end of 2005:
DS: 10-15 million
PSP: 3-5 million

end of 2006:
DS: 35-45 million
PSP: 3.1-5.1 million

end of 2007:
DS: 300-400 million
PSP: 1-2 million

 

[Mr_Furious]

Since Nintendo is facing its first real competition in the portable market in the company's history, it's silly to make any predictions as to who will win. It's only safe to say that based on the hype and anticipation of the PSP, Nintendo definitely has something to worry about (which they've already began to express in the form of their "damage control" statements).

 

[Tenguman]

The only way DS WON'T win is if the PSP keeps people from buying a DS.

But by the time the PSP gets here in the spring...it'll have an uphill battle


Though, PSP's REAL competition is the Ipod IMO -- not the DS. The PSP is just another way Sony is leveraging their most successful buisness into their other lagging markets. Their goal is to offseat things like Ipods in the portable entertainment buisness....so you should watch Apple more than you should Nintendo.

Besides, by the time the PSP gets its legs, the GBA-2 will be out the door most likely. The DS is there to insure there is no large gap between the GBA and GBA-2 for the PSP to sneak up and grab a lot of marketshare.

 

[Moegames]

Look at this way, by the time the PSP will have 500k units the DS will have around 2.8M. By the time the PSP will have a million, the DS should be in the neighborhood of 5M (assume PSP sells 1M by March 2005 by which the DS will have 5M). This is the strongest launch for Nintendo of any console or handheld AFAIK. It seems to me that the DS is clearly on the path of being the GBA replacement, which if that is the case will mean that they'll sell a gazillion DSes, especially if they make a price cut to $100 sometimes next year. If that is the case then I predict that:

end of 2005:
DS: 10-15 million
PSP: 3-5 million

end of 2006:
DS: 35-45 million
PSP: 10-15 million

end of 2007:
DS: 65-75 million
PSP: 20-25 million

These sales numbers are vaguely in line with the GBA/GBASP for the DS, which would in fact be somewhat conservative seeing how the DS launch is better than the GBA launch. I'm just guessing for the PSP though. After that, around the 2007-2008 timeframe, DS2/GBA2 comes out killing any long term chance for the PSP to take off.

So judging by it's strong launch, ability to replace the GBA with its backwards compatibility, and strong Nintendo dominance in the handheld market I claim that the DS has already won. Any opinions?

Keep dreaming or Keep playing DS but please stop with the jibber jabber :lol

 

[Spike]

DS? No. GBA2 on the other hand...

Let's face facts, Nintendo is full steam ahead with the GBA2 and it's going to more closely match the PSP in terms of graphical features.

 

[Kiriku]

I've been guessing that NDS would sell a good amount more than PSP all along...but I'm not so sure anymore. I still think NDS will sell more, but the difference may be surprisingly small.

It seems like PSP could turn out more successful than I ever imagined, actually. The price changed a lot, as well as the battery life not being as horrible as first expected. But it's still lacking in software IMO. There are some interesting games, but not many that actually makes me want to run out and buy a PSP (when possible). 2005 will be an interesting year.

 

[sonycowboy]

Put the PSP next to the DS in the eyes of a customer and you can bury the DS the next day. The DS started very well, but so did the Dreamcast.

The DS, IMHO, was a knee jerk reaction to the PSP and is sloppy all the way down the board. The launch titles between the two systems are night and day. The DS couldn't even sell 1-1 software to hardware.

The PSP is over a generation ahead in terms of technology and is going to wipe the floor with the DS.

I completely respect Nintendo as a software company, but as far as hardware is concerned, they are a sheep lost in the woods, and Sony is coming home to grandma's house (how's that for mixed literary allusions? )

The DS will sell decently for 6-12 months, but it's so far behind the PSP, customers are going to jump ship.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

DS will do well, PSP will do well. End of discussion.

I don't think one system will own the other. There will be a market for both easily.

 

[Tenguman]

as well as the battery life not being as horrible as first expected

Er, I believe that's still up in the air isn't? Has anyone run tests on the actual system (not sony's numbers)?

 

[Pedigree Chum]

"The DS will sell decently for 6-12 months, but it's so far behind the PSP, customers are going to jump ship."

If it wasn't for the GBA b/c I would agree with you there. But this feature is a big draw to many. PSP will appeal to older gamers for sure, but the kiddies will still buy up DS's...

 

[Tenguman]

If it wasn't for the GBA b/c I would agree with you there.

Definatly. Nintendo just needs to cut the GBA-SP to $40-50 and the parents will still gobble them up....especially with all the low price kid friendly games.

 

[Foreign Jackass]

Someone tell me this guy's adress!! He's either got a time machine, in which case I'll steal it from him, or he's a crazy lunatic who deserves to die! Quick!

 

[Kiriku]

Er, I believe that's still up in the air isn't? Has anyone run tests on the actual system (not sony's numbers)?

Based on impressions I've read, it's not as horrible as I expected.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

I've been guessing that NDS would sell a good amount more than PSP all along...but I'm not so sure anymore. I still think NDS will sell more, but the difference may be surprisingly small.

It seems like PSP could turn out more successful than I ever imagined, actually. The price changed a lot, as well as the battery life not being as horrible as first expected. But it's still lacking in software IMO. There are some interesting games, but not many that actually makes me want to run out and buy a PSP (when possible). 2005 will be an interesting year.

Agreed on all accounts. There will be a difference userbase wise, but I doubt it'll be all that substantial (still this would be a major coup for Sony, even if they were to be in a very close 2nd place, or very close 1st place spot). The only thing holding me back from PSP is the software, not much there I'm excited about. Maybe HSG, but that's about it. This will improve in time of course. But I'll be happy owning both the DS and PSP as they will both offer unique games/features (DS's b/c, Nintendo games, stylus gameplay (which I like a lot) to Sony's MP3, Movie, Games playback).

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Based on impressions I've read, it's not as horrible as I expected.

Even if it's a little lower than Sony's estimates, it's not that bad. Plus with the user-replaceable battery I bet Sony is already cooking up a better battery for sale sometime next year.

 

[Amir0x]

Hooooo boy. *booksmark thread* *awaits lock* and...

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Also, this is HyperionX =

 

[snapty00]

The DS, IMHO, was a knee jerk reaction to the PSP and is sloppy all the way down the board.

I agree. Everything about the same screams it.

I'm not saying that Nintendo shouldn't have gotten the DS out the door this year, but I don't think it's powerful enough long-term. Even if Nintendo had to hastily slap a 133 MHz ARM9 with a 67 MHz ARM7 at the last minute so that the architecture wouldn't change much, at least it'd then be able to possibly fool some people that it's comparable to PSP -- especially when developers really came to grips with the system.

I mean, even now, people who have played my DS are freaking asking why the textures in DS games pixelate, why some models look so "flat," and why polygons look so "unsteady." Sure, they don't necessarily know the technical jargon to describe what's happening, but they can see that it's happening.

I think one mistake Nintendo made was assume that because people bought more PSX systems than N64 (despite the better graphics of N64) that nobody would care that DS games don't look as good as PSP games. But two things hurt this: 1.) obviously, there's a FAR bigger gap between DS and PSP than there was between PSX and N64; and 2.) I think people nowadays are more accustomed to precise polygons, to higher-polygon models, and to filtered textures. They probably won't as readily accept these flaws as they would in 1995 and many of the years pre-PlayStation 2.

 

[Spike]

DS won't be buried. Pokemon and Jump Super Stars will ensure that. Both systems will do fine.

 

[Memles]

2.) I think people nowadays are more accustomed to precise polygons, to higher-polygon models, and to filtered textures. They probably won't as readily accept these flaws as they would in 1995 and many of the years pre-PlayStation 2.

If Nintendo was marketing the thing as an entirely 3D system, you're right.

As Jarrod's recent list showed, it isn't even 50/50, and 2D development is still precedent in terms of the hardware. For this reason, "Worse 3D" won't mean quite as much.

 

[GaimeGuy]

DS won't be buried. Pokemon and Jump Super Stars will ensure that. Both systems will do fine.

Nuff said.

 

[snapty00]

If Nintendo was marketing the thing as an entirely 3D system, you're right.

As Jarrod's recent list showed, it isn't even 50/50, and 2D development is still precedent in terms of the hardware. For this reason, "Worse 3D" won't mean quite as much.

I think that's even worse. I mean, there's a reason why Sony fought to keep the PSX a mostly 3D machine and why it continues to do so today to some extent. Sure, it pisses off a total of 100 messageboard-goers worldwide, but it's done wonders overall, probably.

By the way...haha.

Some guy at IGN posted this. I thought it was funnee.

 

[explodet]

By the way...haha.

Some guy at IGN posted this. I thought it was funnee.

Hmm, I wonder where I saw that before....

Oh yeah!
http://www.ga-forum.com/showpost.php?p=739052&postcount=818

GAF > IGN

 

[Amir0x]

Hmm, I wonder where I saw that before....

Oh yeah!

http://www.ga-forum.com/showpost.php?p=739052&postcount=818

*gasp* :lol

 

[snapty00]

Is funny!

 

[Bishman]

NDS will do fine for now but not when March arrives. Just watch, everyone will flock to the PSP. It will be a joke when a casual gamer walks into EB and compares the NDS and PSP. What portable will he be excited about? The PSP. Then we will see a trend of developers leaving the NDS for the PSP. And I don't want to even get started about market appeal. All Sony needs to do is make a commercial comparing the PSP's graphics and the NDS's graphics.

 

[Amir0x]

All Sony needs to do is make a commercial comparing the PSP's graphics and the NDS's graphics.

All hyperbole aside, I really would like to see some aggressive marketing campaigns from either Sony or Nintendo. I want there to be some "SEGA DOES WHAT NINTENDON'T" type ads. That'd be awesome. Some real guerilla type warfare as well. Just in general it makes things more interesting

 

[captmcblack]

NDS will do fine for now but not when March arrives. Just watch, everyone will flock to the PSP. It will be a joke when a casual gamer walks into EB and compares the NDS and PSP. What portable will he be excited about? The PSP. Then we will see a trend of developers leaving the NDS for the PSP. And I don't want to even get started about market appeal. All Sony needs to do is make a commercial comparing the PSP's graphics and the NDS's graphics.

rofl, the true Kilik is revealed away from 1up.
Anyway, I've seen too many console and portable launches to give the win to anything this early. I'm just gonna sit on the fence and watch the fireworks.

 

[Defensor]

No. And just incase you were wondering the PSP hasn't either.

 

[lexi]

All hyperbole aside, I really would like to see some aggressive marketing campaigns from either Sony or Nintendo. I want there to be some "SEGA DOES WHAT NINTENDON'T" type ads. That'd be awesome. Some real guerilla type warfare as well. Just in general it makes things more interesting

I've always thought Nintendo was above mudslinging, but I guess the Reggielution changed that. If Sony does those ads Nintendo should reply with RE4/Zelda graphic laden commercials

Btw, even if the DS is a Virtual Boy-esque failure, it will not have any impact on the GBA2's success. Virtual Boy actually proved this.

 

[snapty00]

I really think Nintendo could've fooled people into thinking that DS were comparable with PSP if the DS could output the same amount of polygons per second with more-stable polygons and filtered textures. I really and truly do think some people would find the difference between the two systems to be unimpressive.

That's why I really don't know what Nintendo was thinking. Why no texture filtering? That's a freaking staple of 3D graphics today.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

I think that's even worse. I mean, there's a reason why Sony fought to keep the PSX a mostly 3D machine and why it continues to do so today to some extent. Sure, it pisses off a total of 100 messageboard-goers worldwide, but it's done wonders overall, probably.

By the way...haha.

Some guy at IGN posted this. I thought it was funnee.

:lol

But my laughing got sidetracked by the sexy look of the PSP. So seeeeeeeeeeeexy, *drool*