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How do you imagine the impacts of AI on the future of society?
jufonuk
not tag worthy
Living a content life. In Harmony with nature sounds good.
As much as the AI is useful and productive you realise you are just rearranging what has already been done before. It can’t learn anything it hasn’t been taught. (This is from drawing wise) Also tbh it feels hollow. Compared to sculpting or paint drawing etc. It’s just spitting out things. I hope that human nature and creativity wins over. It just doesn’t have the same sense of satisfaction creating a prompt compared to doing it yourself. (Arts wise at least). Writing wise it allows you to pump out stuff at an amazing rate. But you still have to check and refine it. So there is always a need for people.
I hope we see it as a tool. Not the only way.
Don’t get me wrong I’m enjoying playing around with it and learning about it and asking questions. If I need to use it to make ends meet then I must learn.
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EverydayBeast
ChatGPT 0.1
AI is popular culture thing and it will be thousands of years before its “taking jobs”.
Mobilemofo
Member
You know the score. At least underground, there's no "3 shells" toileting.
-Minsc-
Member
"AI*" VS human learning.
* First, what is a better term for what people are calling AI? I believe what people expect and what it actually is are two different things.
What are some basic similarities between humans and AI? We both have memory and we are both programmed. Using our memory we make decisions for the present.
What is a difference? Barring hardware failure, a computers memory is static. Human memory, at least from my experience, degrades and is imperfect.
Is our creativity a result of our own imperfection?
* First, what is a better term for what people are calling AI? I believe what people expect and what it actually is are two different things.
What are some basic similarities between humans and AI? We both have memory and we are both programmed. Using our memory we make decisions for the present.
What is a difference? Barring hardware failure, a computers memory is static. Human memory, at least from my experience, degrades and is imperfect.
Is our creativity a result of our own imperfection?
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StabbyStabStabStabStab
Member
I can't help be a little bit of a doomer gloomer - creating a sentient machine unbound by moral constraints will not bode well for anyone I imagine. Give it 10 years and we'll be waging an all-out war against an army of sentient vacuumn cleaners.
Roxkis_ii
Member
This made me glad I got promoted out of my helpdesk job. Jesus, it's going to be an employment blood bath soon. We need some form of UBI or everywhere is going to look like Los Angeles with homelessness. I would rather ai goes rouge and takes over completely then be a tool used to express the greed of corporations.
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IDKFA
I am Become Bilbo Baggins
You just know corporations will use this to increase their profits at the expense of the workers. Especially in the US.
The reason I'm pointing out the US is because as far as I'm aware, the US has some of the worst and most dystopian workers rights in the western world. I can't see AI changing this.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Kind of depends on the jobs AI takes over, if it leads to net job losses, and whomever loses their job in how loud they are or how easy they can get another job.
AI is really just an evolution of automation.
There used to be tons of paper pushers (literally paper). Most of us on thie board grew up with computers and work at jobs which from day one out of school is PC based. But ask anyone's old ass parents or grandparents and they worked at a time of tons of secretaries, carbon paper copies, grid paper and photocopies. By the time my dad retired pretty young age, he never used a PC at his office job. His secretary typed everything.
PC programs automated a lot of shit, cutting out shit loads of admin staff the past 30+ years. It's not like office jobs disappeared. The roles are filled by other people doing other roles.
Will AI go the next step and cut out tons of people, but this time there's no opportunity to do something different and humans cant evolve into doing other jobs? Who knows. But I think people will adapt.
diffusionx
Gold Member
They're not sentient though, and won't be.
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StabbyStabStabStabStab
Member
Depends on which hole you chase the rabbit down. I admit I haven't really looked into it for a while, however my current line of thinking was formed by the likes of:
The Open Letter on AI Doesn't Go Far Enough
One of the earliest researchers to analyze the prospect of powerful Artificial Intelligence warns of a bleak scenario
or..
...where the basic stance is if we continue on an insatiable and unregulated path of AI development then there's a chance we could reach that point of no return, and that point being absolute.
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Griffon
Member
As I understand it, machine learning lets devs make a lookup table to the most likely upcoming word or pixel. That's just it.
The way it fakes memory or object permanence is by repeating the entire exchange as a single big prompt every time you add more to it. But it barely helps and it's still just basically a search engine.
AGI is still not a thing at all. And no matter how much data you feed into chatgpt it'll remain as basic as an auto complete algorithm.
With that said, it doesn't stop us from being surprised and delighted by all the useful things this tool can do. But keep in mind that it's not AI by any stretch, just a cool tool.
The way it fakes memory or object permanence is by repeating the entire exchange as a single big prompt every time you add more to it. But it barely helps and it's still just basically a search engine.
AGI is still not a thing at all. And no matter how much data you feed into chatgpt it'll remain as basic as an auto complete algorithm.
With that said, it doesn't stop us from being surprised and delighted by all the useful things this tool can do. But keep in mind that it's not AI by any stretch, just a cool tool.
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Hugare
Member
Those were jobs that didnt require any study. You could easily replace one job like this for another. This is also what happened in the industrial revolution.
But we are talking about AI replacing teachers, for example. People who spent the majority of their lives studying, paying for their 5 years university graduation, then post graduation, getting more and more specialized with years of experience ...
Then you'll tell them that they'll have to do it all over again? 5 years graduation + post graduation + years of experience to get another job with the same salary? At their 30's?
Tertullian
Member
I’m totally unconvinced that machine learning bots will be replacing any significant number of human jobs, or that they will be anything more than a useful supplemental tool like Google searches or reference books.
The video in the OP doesn't impress me. It's 3 minutes of carefully-curated content. It's like a bullshit "in-engine" vertical-slice trailer for a video game. Show me an unedited 2 hour video of GPT solo teaching long division from scratch to a kid who has had crappy schooling and who doesn't even understand the context of what he's doing or what questions to ask. Don't show me an obviously smart, coached kid asking softball questions he clearly already knows the answer to. When you can show me that, I'll be impressed. Then I'll believe this thing can literally replace human teachers. Until then, it's a doodad you could place in the back of a classroom for the kids to play with, or a gimmick you could hand them for half an hour to give the teacher a break.
My impression of these machine learning bots is that they are very "smeary." They sound really good (actually they sound disgusting, their writing is hideous, but they sound competent) in general terms and when writing something of article-length or less. But eventually they make bizarre mistakes, fall into inconsistencies, make shit up, or just fail to actually address the issue. Nobody has yet produced a 400-page novel without meaningful human intervention that hangs together or is any good at all. Still less has anyone produced a 400-page 100%-AI-generated geometry textbook or tabletop roleplaying game rulebook that is even in the ballpark of acceptable.
And yes, I know what you're going to say: machine learning will continue to get better. But it’s like self-driving cars. 10 years ago, the exact same techbros were saying that we would have fully-autonomous self-driving cars by now. Now almost nobody thinks that. Because the self-driving cars do fine 95% of the time, but it turns out that that last 5% is a bitch, and we can’t actually solve it. And 95% isn’t good enough; you need 100% before they can actually replace a significant number of human drivers.
And I seriously doubt these chatbots will reach 100% at any point in the next 20 years. Because that last 5% is vastly harder than the first 95% was. Immensely harder. Believing that we will bridge that last 5% in the next few iterations of GPT is magical thinking. Machine learning chatbots may even regress instead, as they effectively cannibalize themselves because more and more of their raw material culled from the internet is itself AI-generated sludge.
I’m not saying machine learning isn’t a significant innovation. I think it is definitely useful and will change how a number of jobs are done. It isn’t NFTs or something dumb like that. But it’s an innovation on the level of Google searches, or perhaps smartphones. It’s not the apocalypse. It’s not going to result in 90% unemployment. It is nowhere near AGI, nor is it even in the same conceptual category as AGI. People who think it is have a terminal case of science fiction brain.
The video in the OP doesn't impress me. It's 3 minutes of carefully-curated content. It's like a bullshit "in-engine" vertical-slice trailer for a video game. Show me an unedited 2 hour video of GPT solo teaching long division from scratch to a kid who has had crappy schooling and who doesn't even understand the context of what he's doing or what questions to ask. Don't show me an obviously smart, coached kid asking softball questions he clearly already knows the answer to. When you can show me that, I'll be impressed. Then I'll believe this thing can literally replace human teachers. Until then, it's a doodad you could place in the back of a classroom for the kids to play with, or a gimmick you could hand them for half an hour to give the teacher a break.
My impression of these machine learning bots is that they are very "smeary." They sound really good (actually they sound disgusting, their writing is hideous, but they sound competent) in general terms and when writing something of article-length or less. But eventually they make bizarre mistakes, fall into inconsistencies, make shit up, or just fail to actually address the issue. Nobody has yet produced a 400-page novel without meaningful human intervention that hangs together or is any good at all. Still less has anyone produced a 400-page 100%-AI-generated geometry textbook or tabletop roleplaying game rulebook that is even in the ballpark of acceptable.
And yes, I know what you're going to say: machine learning will continue to get better. But it’s like self-driving cars. 10 years ago, the exact same techbros were saying that we would have fully-autonomous self-driving cars by now. Now almost nobody thinks that. Because the self-driving cars do fine 95% of the time, but it turns out that that last 5% is a bitch, and we can’t actually solve it. And 95% isn’t good enough; you need 100% before they can actually replace a significant number of human drivers.
And I seriously doubt these chatbots will reach 100% at any point in the next 20 years. Because that last 5% is vastly harder than the first 95% was. Immensely harder. Believing that we will bridge that last 5% in the next few iterations of GPT is magical thinking. Machine learning chatbots may even regress instead, as they effectively cannibalize themselves because more and more of their raw material culled from the internet is itself AI-generated sludge.
I’m not saying machine learning isn’t a significant innovation. I think it is definitely useful and will change how a number of jobs are done. It isn’t NFTs or something dumb like that. But it’s an innovation on the level of Google searches, or perhaps smartphones. It’s not the apocalypse. It’s not going to result in 90% unemployment. It is nowhere near AGI, nor is it even in the same conceptual category as AGI. People who think it is have a terminal case of science fiction brain.
Tertullian
Member
And don't even get me started on the sheer, coma-inducing stupidity of this chart.
I mean, real estate agents? I don't even like realtors, but do these socially-incompetent tech fundamentalists seriously not understand that virtually the entire function of realtors is the human and emotional touchpoint they provide? And please don't try and say "ChatGPT will get so good at replicating the human touch and answering people's questions that people will just use it instead of paying a realtor!" No, they absolutely will not. This notion falls apart the instant you try and actually walk through how it will work in practice.
What are people going to do? Is the average person going to walk through a house with an iPad that has GPT on it, pointing the camera at everything in the house and asking GPT what it thinks? What if they don't even know what questions they should be asking? Are they going to ask the creepy, excessively bland chatbot what questions they might be missing, then they're going to ask that same chatbot those questions, then they're going to figure that they've pretty much covered all their bases? For a $600,000 purchase? And you're trying to tell me that not only are a few people going to do this, but EIGHTY SIX PERCENT of average joes on the street, making the largest purchase of their lives, are going to do it this way within the next 20 years? Delusional.
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Gp1
Member
I disagree.
Your buying side AI will do the entire purchase process. It will select the cheapest supplier given your requirements and needs (yeah, it will know what you need better than you), then it will barter with the sellers AI for the discount.
You will probably only authorize the deal. (And that's for important deals, everything else will probably be automated)
6502
Member
Look up British Telecom, their own advancements in ai development times (only 6 weeks down from 6 months per task) and job losses internally projected at 10,000 in next few years.
They also have ai measuring emotions of call centre staff, spoken word checkers and recently wanted cameras monitoring facial expressions and body movements of staff.
This was already a high tech company, they want to resell some of this stuff to other firms.
Some can't see it ever happening, others are already living it.
Unknown Soldier
Member
I hope the AI doesn't decide to exterminate us that's all really
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
If teachers have that problem if they are unemployed, that's on them to figure out. Dont take job that has a narrow focus.
I work in finance. Even if I get gutted (I have before 15 years ago), I'll just go do finance for another company because just about every company can use a number cruncher. That's not on the general public or government to bail me out. That's on me to choose a career.
My sis in law's sister is a dental hygeniest. If she gets fired one day, I dont know what kind of other jobs are out there to get aside from more dental jobs. But if shes stuck that's her fault and on her to figure out.
I know friends and family who changed careers in their 30s. So it's not impossible. I actually knew someone who did the reverse. She worked beside me in an office, got bored of the office grind and became a teacher going back to school. She's now an elementary school teacher for about 10 years.
Many people I know quit the office grind too becoming real estate agents. I know at least 5 off the top of my head who I used to work with and bailed. If I think about it more, I can probably reach 10 people.
Get off the ass and get a different career.
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Hugare
Member
I dont think you got my point
Imagine a situation where AI just erase all the jobs in finance, ok? Not some, but all. Or one where it replaces all dentists. No more dental jobs out there. All those years studying to become a dentist and all her experience? Thrown into the trash. Now she will have to start a graduation in whatever gets her a decent job, in her 30's.
"Oh but I know a coworker that changed careers", lol. This wouldnt be nowhere near the same situation. Billions of people would be forced to change careers at the same time, competing for the same jobs. Less jobs available, way more competition.
Imagine all the dentists in the world becoming irrelevant. All those people looking for a new job in a new career. And that's only considering dentists (for this example), and not many other jobs out there that will also become irrelevant.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I cant speak for other people in other job fields, but if AI took over all finance jobs making the entire field obsolete, I'd just get a different job. And if it means me being forced to do extra school I'd do it. I've got an undergrad and masters. And so do much of my fam, so going back to school to do more bookworming and tests isnt the end of the world. Its about improving yourself when you need to for sake of interest and career.
No different than friends and fam who changed career as I said before. And that even included them doing night school because they worked during the day. So they had initiative to do both at the same time! As always, it comes down to how much of an effort someone wants to put into life, and who wants to sit around as a laggard.
No matter what era of tech it's been, no time in life did things flip on a dime. It can take decades for a generational shift in tech to finalize itself making some jobs obsolete (or virtually obsolete). If people dont want to adapt, that's on them. I'm still waiting for the waves of AI-driven 18-wheelers to take over trucking making all truckers obsolete. Those articles popped up when Tesla was promoting Tesla trucks with EV, and the extension was autopilot feature.
Youre assuming ChatGPT and whatever programs are out there are going to make everyone lose their jobs quickly at the same time (or pretty close to it) making it a giant mob on unemployed people at once. Wont happen.
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Kings Field
Member
We already use AI at my hospital to help diagnosis patients. Our radiologist use AI to help read medical images such as CT scans and X-rays to help confirm diagnosis faster.
In 20 years I’ll be 57 and hopefully nearing retirement so whatever happens, so be it.
In 20 years I’ll be 57 and hopefully nearing retirement so whatever happens, so be it.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Over my career, ERP and CRM systems have fully taken over office life where all the data is imported by IT dept and spat our as reports anyone can use (or make their own report).We already use AI at my hospital to help diagnosis patients. Our radiologist use AI to help read medical images such as CT scans and X-rays to help confirm diagnosis faster.
In 20 years I’ll be 57 and hopefully nearing retirement so whatever happens, so be it.
Anyone from decades ago being a paper pusher is gone. But the replacement is all the techies handling the gear, fixing data issues and implementing even better tools every 5 years. It's a cycle.
As long as someone as an ounce of IQ to make judgement calls, they'll always be valuable. Especially when data is wrong a lot of the time, but the company has to with the data available. And human brains are the ones who will make those calls the best as they can tell the difference between good data and bad data, as well as give solutions or reco that are a 180 vs. what a typical answer is if the situation requires dynamic thinking and ideas.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Yes finally someone has the guts to say that the great depression was just a bunch of people all getting lazy at the same time.
Greatest generation my ass.
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xrnzaaas
Member
First of all it's not the same as in the movies, it's still only a tool based on machine learning. This means it will remain a tool, even though it'll surely continue to be even more useful.
Some jobs are already becoming redundant and it's best to start a different career path if you still can. Sure it's not like all translators or artists will lose their jobs, but overseeing and checking what the AI does will require less jobs.
I feel like creativity in general is going to take a big hit. It'll be easier for the big corpos to ask AI to generate something rather than ask talented artists or writers to do it. And if people won't have a massive negative reaction to it they'll just see it as a good way to cut costs.
Some jobs are already becoming redundant and it's best to start a different career path if you still can. Sure it's not like all translators or artists will lose their jobs, but overseeing and checking what the AI does will require less jobs.
I feel like creativity in general is going to take a big hit. It'll be easier for the big corpos to ask AI to generate something rather than ask talented artists or writers to do it. And if people won't have a massive negative reaction to it they'll just see it as a good way to cut costs.
NecrosaroIII
Ultimate DQ Fan
I plugged 3 chapters as PDFs into chat GPT, and was surprised by the quality of analysis it provide for feedback. Definitely works as a "first pass" as an editor.