Earlier today I got linked to this chain on Twitter, and I think it's onto something vitally important for understanding what's happening now (and why we may have serious structural issues with our elections in the US going forward.)
The fundamental thing underlying all of this - we've switched to a service-based economy where the most important thing about where you live is how connected you are to other people. Being able to be within range of other people, clients, business, etc- it has exponential benefits in today's world. Cities are growing. Rural areas are declining. And this presents serious challenges to the United States and other western countries
https://twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/801079245091049472
Here's the map from WaPo article on this economic disparity- https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-american-economy-in-this-election/?tid=sm_fb
And here's part of the piece on the battle between right-wing rural populism and the progressive Urban areas - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-against-the-tide-of-right-wing-nationalism/
One other thing that seems related to this- it appears counties ravaged by Heroin in Ohio and Pennsylvania swung to Trump hard this cycle: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/22/13698476/trump-opioid-heroin-epidemic
The fundamental thing underlying all of this - we've switched to a service-based economy where the most important thing about where you live is how connected you are to other people. Being able to be within range of other people, clients, business, etc- it has exponential benefits in today's world. Cities are growing. Rural areas are declining. And this presents serious challenges to the United States and other western countries
https://twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/801079245091049472
1. Let's talk about economics, the election and polarization in a little bit of a different way than we have been.
2. There was a divide exposed in this election that dwarfs the pop vote / Electoral College split. That divide is economic.
3. In really crude terms, it's high-output America vs. low-output America.
4. Hillary Clinton won < 400 counties nationwide, out of more than 3,000. Those HRC counties make up nearly *TWO-THIRDS* of the U.S. economy
5. That's per calculations by @MarkMuro1 & co. Al Gore, in 2000, won 54% of GDP, by counties.
6. This appears to be an unprecedented share for a losing candidate in modern presidential politics. It matters. Because...
7. Donald Trump won by promising his counties - 1/3 of the economy - a return to their industrial heyday.
8. This visualization of HRC counties vs. DT counties, by GDP, is stunning. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ost-of-the-american-economy-in-this-election/ …
9. Now, read @ishaantharoor on how "the agenda of cities can get sidelined by right-wing populism."
10. So here's the rub: Western politics right now seems to be pitting the urban engines of growth against everyone else.
11. I have long written abt how the non-urban areas need revival, new growth engines, and how that's in everyone's interest, urban or not
12. It looks especially clear now. Economies that consolidate to tightly packed superstar metros risk a huge political backlash.
Here's the map from WaPo article on this economic disparity- https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-american-economy-in-this-election/?tid=sm_fb
And here's part of the piece on the battle between right-wing rural populism and the progressive Urban areas - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-against-the-tide-of-right-wing-nationalism/
What cities represent
But “their” world — that of multiculturalism and the metropolis — isn’t quite crumbling. In the United States, a host of mayors from major cities have signaled their willingness to push back against the proposed policies of the president-elect, including Trump's stated intent to round up and deport millions of undocumented migrants.
In New York City, one of the so-called sanctuary cities, an estimated 500,000 undocumented people exist on a municipal database after they enrolled in a scheme that allowed them and other New Yorkers to obtain a city-specific identity card. Bill de Blasio, the city's mayor, has insisted that municipal authorities will refuse to cooperate should a federal government under Trump seek to obtain information on undocumented people listed on the database.
“We are not going to sacrifice a half million people who live among us,” De Blasio said. “We’re not going to tear families apart. We will do everything we know how to do to resist that.”
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel made similar noises: “For all those who are, after Tuesday’s election, very nervous, filled with anxiety as we’ve spoken to, you are safe in Chicago, you are secure in Chicago and you are supported in Chicago. Administrations may change, but our values and principles as it relates to inclusion does not.” (And so did Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti.)
It's not just on issues of deportations where cities and the Trump administration may clash. If a conservative Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade, cities can defend the abortion rights of their residents. And already, in the face of policy paralysis on a national level, cities are pushing through larger progressive reforms: Seattle recently approved an ordinance for a $15-an-hour minimum wage, which is more than double the federally mandated figure; other local politicians, including former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, are leading the political fight on climate change even as controversial climate skeptics enter the White House.
No matter the ascension of a certain brand of nationalist politics, the reality in much of the West is of countries that are becoming both more urban and more diverse. Cities aren't just bastions of jet-setting Davos men: They are home to the fullest range of a nation's diversity. The politicians at the helms of cities such as New York or London have to act on a set of concerns — be it addressing income inequity, reckoning with housing shortages or defending inclusive societies — that echo across borders.
“Increasingly, nation-states look parochial and backward, and cities are actually cosmopolitan and much more broad in their understanding,” Benjamin Barber, one of the premier theorists of the global city and author of “If Mayors Ruled the World,” told WorldViews.
Everywhere, cities are the engines of the economy — worldwide, they contribute some 80 percent of global GDP. More than 80 percent of the American population lives in urban areas. And the populations in medium to large cities overwhelmingly tend to vote against the platforms of right-wing populists. Yet because of the nature of federal elections — including the weighted system of the U.S. electoral college — the agenda of cities can get sidelined by right-wing populism.
“There’s a fundamental asymmetry between what cities represent and what they are able to accomplish politically,” said Barber.
One other thing that seems related to this- it appears counties ravaged by Heroin in Ohio and Pennsylvania swung to Trump hard this cycle: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/22/13698476/trump-opioid-heroin-epidemic
A new analysis by historian Kathleen Frydl looks at the strong correlation between the opioid painkiller and heroin epidemic — which led to a record number of overall drug overdose deaths in 2014 — and the counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania that swung from President Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. Both of these states were crucial to Trump’s victory on Election Day.
In Ohio, 26 counties reported around 20 or more drug overdoses per 100,000 people in 2015. In all but two of these counties, Frydl said there was at least a 10 percent surge in voters who went to Trump compared with Republican candidate Mitt Romney in 2012, a 10 percent or more drop in voters who went to Hillary Clinton compared with Obama, or both of these trends. In five counties, the shift was big enough for the county to flip from Democrat in 2012 to Republican in 2016.
And in Pennsylvania, all but four of 33 high-overdose counties followed a similar trend. In three counties, the shift was enough for a complete Democrat-to-Republican flip.
In total, eight of 13 Ohio and Pennsylvania counties that flipped from Obama to Trump had around 20 or more drug overdoses.
Unlike past drug epidemics, the opioid epidemic has largely hit white and rural areas. The two states suffering the most from the epidemic, based on 2014 numbers, have been West Virginia and New Hampshire, both of which are very rural and very white. And a 2014 study found that nearly 90 percent of treatment-seeking patients who began using heroin in the previous decade were white — a big shift from equal racial representation prior to the 1980s. So Trump’s Rust Belt support appears to reflect, at least partly, the unique levels of suffering in these communities.