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[Godot25]

One of the information from huge Insomniac leak was reveal of sales of PlayStation games on PC. For those who don't remember, here is a graph

Now the interesting thing about that is that if you check SteamDB and games mentioned in this slide, you will find out that estimates from VG Insights are almost exact match to actual sales reported by Sony. VG Insights is reporting

3,22 million of Horizon Zero Dawn
2,4 million of God of War
1,85 million of Days Gone
etc.

So that got me thinking if I could extrapolate sales of Xbox first-party games on Steam alone, since we established that VG Insights method of producing sales numbers is pretty accurate. So...here it is.

Age of Empires II Definitive Edition - 4,11 million
Age of Empires III Definitive Edition - 1,19 million
Age of Empires IV - 1,87 million
Forza Horizon 5 - 6,18 million
Forza Horizon 4 - 4,73 million
Sea of Thieves - 9,32 million
Microsoft Flight Simulator - 1,62 million
Grounded - 2,05 million
State of Decay 2 - 1,52 million
Ori and the Will of the Wisps - 3,64 million
Ori and the Blind Forest - 1,8 million + 1,85 million (game has separate Definitive Edition)
Gears 5 - 682k
Psychonauts 2 - 310k
Pentiment - 147k
Gears Tactics - 199k
Forza Motorsport - 155k
Starfield - 4,47 million
Hi-Fi Rush - 668k
Deathloop - 808k
GhostWire Toyko - 471k
Redfall - 57k (fucking lol)
Diablo 4 - 570k
The Outer Worlds - 728k
Wasteland 3 - 562k
Minecraft Dungeons - 288k
Minecraft Legends - 72k (fucking lol)
As Dusk Falls - 70k (fucking lol)


Games with free-to-play components (Halo Infinite) can't be reported because...it's free-to-play. Same for Modern Warfare 3 because sales of that game are "bundled" with Warzone.

Of course I do need to remind that those sales don't include everything sold through Xbox App on PC and also don't include people who played those games through PC Game Pass (obviously). It's all about sales on Steam.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

 

[Ozriel]

I dont think this analysis holds water, since it seems to be a mix of different date ranges. Bottom text seems to say the cutoff for at least several of the older games is June 2022, but they’ve added newer games to the chart.
No real definitive time stamp to this.

It’s an extreme stretch to claim that VG matches these sales accurately. Especially when you’re checking VG sales estimates from today vs an unspecified date in the past, depending on when this slide was made.


Misleading thread title and analysis.

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

This thread title is crazy misleading, and the analysis is ridiculous.

 

[Ozriel]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

Sea of Thieves released on Steam two years after landing on PC GamePass. And it had sold 5 million copies nearly two years ago.

PC gamers prefer to play on Steam. How does that surprise you?

 

[Mephisto40]

I find it difficult to believe Starfield has sold 4 million copies on PC alone since september

 

[phil_t98]

I find it difficult to believe Starfield has sold 4 million copies on PC alone since september

why?

 

[kazuyamishima]

Starfield is #10 YTD according to Circana in the US, the 4 million units sold might be kinda accurate.

 

[Mephisto40]

why?

Because it's not very good, and it's on gamepass

 

[Three]

I dont think this analysis holds water, since it seems to be a mix of different date ranges. Bottom text seems to say the cutoff for at least several of the older games is June 2022, but they’ve added newer games to the chart.
No real definitive time stamp to this.

It’s an extreme stretch to claim that VG matches these sales accurately. Especially when you’re checking VG sales estimates from today vs an unspecified date in the past, depending on when this slide was made.


Misleading thread title and analysis.

The date is specified and VG insight is just inaccurate. The Insomniac slide has 2.5M steam sales at 02/06/2022.
VG Insight has 2.4M as of today. You can even look at a fake unit sales history and see that VG Insight thought it was at least 0.2M lower before 2023 began.

 

[Gen.Grievous]

I find it difficult to believe Starfield has sold 4 million copies on PC alone since september

Not surprised at all. First new Bethesda singleplayer RPG in over a decade. Big hype. Lots of preorders. That it turned out to be disappointing doesn't mean it didn't sell great.

Steam is also way more popular than PC gamepass and Bethesda games being mod friendly I never even considered getting it on gamepass.

 

[Senua]

Because it's not very good, and it's on gamepass

Most PC gamers use steam, not gamepass.

 

[tommib]

Sackboy is lowkey the best looking platformer ever and with co-op it’s a total joy. Also, it has Bowie songs.

I’m heartbroken with those sales. The brand just has no future.

 

[KaiserBecks]

Those numbers are good so obviously our own analysts disagree.

 

[Hudo]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

This is not unlilkely, tho. I know that Consolists keep saying that stuff doesn't selll on PC. But the reality is that stuff does sell on PC. And many people using Steam aren't that fond of using anything else.

I can guarantee that even with the triple-dipping efforts of R* and the big-ass delay, GTA 5 also sold millions of copies on PC. It's a lucrative market.

 

[MidGenRefresh]

Forza Motorsport bombed hard, deservedly so.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

This is not unlilkely, tho. I know that Consolists keep saying that stuff doesn't selll on PC. But the reality is that stuff does sell on PC. And many people using Steam aren't that fond of using anything else.

I can guarantee that even with the triple-dipping efforts of R* and the big-ass delay, GTA 5 also sold millions of copies on PC. It's a lucrative market.

Hey I buy shit on Steam too, and I don't think that stuff doesn't sell on PC. Just find it hard to believe that that game sold 4M plus since September on Steam. And if it did, how is it that MS didn't announce it once?

Ah well, guess we will never know.

 

[ChoosableOne]

State of Decay 2 - 1,52 million

No way.

 

[Ar¢tos]

I find it difficult to believe Starfield has sold 4 million copies on PC alone since september

The real question is, how many of the 7.6m players that didn't buy it on steam actually bought the game?

 

[damiank]

I find it difficult to believe Starfield has sold 4 million copies on PC alone since september

They secretly sold it on ps5

 

[MidGenRefresh]

State of Decay 2 - 1,52 million

No way.

It's a coop zombie survival/base budling game that's rated very positively with 40k+ reviews on Steam. Yes, way. PC players love these kind of games.

 

[Majima Everywhere System]

Diablo 4 looks low low. They were pretty big in their player counts, would a million+ PC people bought it on Battle.net? That seems high.

If battle.net maintained that many purchases with a steam launch, people must like it pretty well. Might be an actual competitor.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Sea of Thieves is a BEAST!

 

[Mownoc]

One of the information from huge Insomniac leak was reveal of sales of PlayStation games on PC. For those who don't remember, here is a graph

Now the interesting thing about that is that if you check SteamDB and games mentioned in this slide, you will find out that estimates from VG Insights are almost exact match to actual sales reported by Sony. VG Insights is reporting

3,22 million of Horizon Zero Dawn
2,4 million of God of War
1,85 million of Days Gone

The sales from Sony are as of 6th Feb 2023. Basically God of War on PC sold 2.5m in it's first year per Sony and VG Insights is saying it sold 2.4m in almost 2 years. That's a big discrepancy for GoW.

They're not as wildly inaccurate as I would expect but still very inaccurate in some cases when you take the big time discrepancy from Sony to VG Insights numbers into account. For Rough estimates they don't seem too bad though.

 

[cireza]

I find it difficult to believe Starfield has sold 4 million copies on PC alone since september

Let's say I am interested in a RPG I will be playing for the next 10 years. What is less expensive ? Buying the game or subscribing for GamePass for 10 years ?

 

[MidGenRefresh]

Diablo 4 looks low low. They were pretty big in their player counts, would a million+ PC people bought it on Battle.net? That seems high.

If battle.net maintained that many purchases with a steam launch, people must like it pretty well. Might be an actual competitor.

Hmmm... maybe because it was exclusive to battle.net for like 5 or 6 months? Who knows.

 

[MidGenRefresh]

Sea of Thieves is a BEAST!

GAAS done right and a great redemption story, possibly up there with No Man's Sky.

Edit: sorry for a double post!

 

[Majima Everywhere System]

Hmmm... maybe because it was exclusive to battle.net for like 5 or 6 months? Who knows.

You are right, it release October 17, I guess only because MS at that point. Bizarre.

 

[Team Andromeda]

Phil called it right to get XBox games Day 1 on PC then.

 

[freefornow]

Forza Motorsport bombed hard, deservedly so.

This!!

 

[Belthazar]

Sackboy is lowkey the best looking platformer ever and with co-op it’s a total joy. Also, it has Bowie songs.

I’m heartbroken with those sales. The brand just has no future.

The worst part is that I enjoyed it more than any Little Big Planet game, as the platforming on those were very mediocre and I didn't care for the creative part.

 

[phaedrus]

So that got me thinking if I could extrapolate sales of Xbox first-party games

Obligatory:

 

[Zathalus]

I prefer www.gamalytic.com. Methodology seems far more sound.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Because it's not very good, and it's on gamepass

Or GamePass isn't that successful on PC.

 

[Shtof]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

I'm surprised it sold so little.

I've actually been surprised many times out in the real world about how little people care about GP.
And many, not just casuals, actually strongly dislike the idea/business model.
This obviously goes for PS Plus too.

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

Nothing surprising about Starfield selling 4M on PC. And it's not that big of a number for PC for MS to talk about it anyway.

 

[mdkirby]

All seem pretty believable, tho I’m surprised by Minecraft dungeons/legends, they don’t interest me, but I’d have expected much higher numbers given Minecraft’s success

 

[rofif]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

Yeah seems weird to me too

 

[fatmarco]

State of Decay 2 - 1,52 million

No way.

State of Decay 2 is good (now) though?

In August 2021, it was announced the game had surpassed 10 million players.[8]

Like after the Juggernaut patch (2020)/ Plague Territory patch (2021), and the various other patches beyond that, it became very good, just aside from the fact it's limited by its AA budget and it still has the odd bad/cringe characters every now and then. So yeah, they did mostly fix it after 3 years hahah.

 

[Kilau]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

MS doesn’t say anything because Ass of Can Whooping was responsible for over 3 million of those “sales” and refunded after leaving a negative review.

 

[Sentenza]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

If anything it’s surprising it sol so little (relatively speaking). This was supposed to be the next big thing from BGS after more than a decade. Many assumed it would pulverize the sales of games like BG3.

Instead we have that game being already in the estimated range of 10M+ on STEAM ALONE and the “next Skyrim” sitting at less than half that number.

A Starfield with better reception and word of mouth at launch would be way higher in sales. Even with Gamepass being a thing.

 

[Mephisto40]

Let's say I am interested in a RPG I will be playing for the next 10 years. What is less expensive ? Buying the game or subscribing for GamePass for 10 years ?

I'm not sure you'll be playing Starfield in 10 years time tbh, but power to you if you are still playing it

 

[Ozzie666]

Pulling numbers out of the ass, or just making them up, I can't decide. I entered this thread thinking, how would Insomniac actually know this information. Turns out, they didn't.

 

[cireza]

I'm not sure you'll be playing Starfield in 10 years time tbh, but power to you if you are still playing it

Change 10 by 1. What I said is still true.

 

[Calverz]

“Fucking lol”

 

[Ozriel]

Starfield is in Steam’s Platinum tier for 2023, which covers the top 12 games on the platform by revenue. It’s made more money on Steam than RE4 Remake, FIFA 23, FC24 and many others.

Thats hard data from Valve. Why would anyone assume it didn’t sell very well on Steam?

 

[Gaiff]

Something has to be wrong here... I find it hard to believe that 4M+ people bought Starfield on PC outright. Being that it's on gamepass.

Unless I am missing something. And if it sold that much on PC alone... There is no way MS keeps that quiet and says nothing about it.

There's absolutely no way Starfield hasn't sold 4M+ copies on PC after 4 months of availability. It peaked at over 350K on the day of release. Even factoring Game Pass, let than 4M on PC after all that time would be an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Banjo64]

Age of Empires II Definitive Edition - 4,11 million
Forza Horizon 5 - 6,18 million
Forza Horizon 4 - 4,73 million
Sea of Thieves - 9,32 million
Grounded - 2,05 million
Ori and the Will of the Wisps - 3,64 million
Ori and the Blind Forest - 1,8 million + 1,85 million (game has separate Definitive Edition)

Some amazing numbers there. SoT is huge. Grounded very good for the budget. Ori, 3.6m each =

Gears 5 - 682k
Forza Motorsport - 155k

These two in particular, with each brands’ former pulling power, yikes.

Just goes to show that the paradigm has shifted. Halo, Gears, FM are out - SoT & FH are M$’s tentpole games.

 

[Ozriel]

Just goes to show that the paradigm has shifted. Halo, Gears, FM are out - SoT & FH are M$’s tentpole games.

Halo Infinite didn’t even make it to Steam’s Bronze category. So clearly the F2P approach isn’t pulling in any substantial amount of money.
Forza Motorsport seems to be a financial disaster all round.

Ironically, both Halo and Forza hammered by the devs making drastic changes to the progression system that proved to be deeply unpopular. Spencer/Booty need to figure out what these MS devs are smoking when they break with tradition and implement extremely drastic changes to progression systems without doing the proper groundwork and research. Thats where the mismanagement bit comes in.

Not sure where Motorsport goes from here, but there’s still a credible path to success for future Halo games if they can manage to execute well. Turn 10’s put themselves into a bind with their pivot to ‘Forza Motorsport as a platform’.

Hopefully, Coalition does enough to make Gears 6 look like a return to form for the series. We’ll see.

 

[twilo99]

Diablo 4 looks low low. They were pretty big in their player counts, would a million+ PC people bought it on Battle.net? That seems high.

If battle.net maintained that many purchases with a steam launch, people must like it pretty well. Might be an actual competitor.

Diablo is a big name within the genre so not really surprising.

The battle.net sales are very interesting since I’m pretty sure CoD on PC is primarily battle.net sales and not Steam.

It will be interesting to see what Microsoft does with it because if they remove it, they will be giving quite a lot of business to Steam..