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[lunchwithyuzo]

Are all of those games confirmed??

If so, it's not that bad, even though (save a few games that came out so far) it accounts for most of the year support-wise D:

I think the big problem with the Vita list is that half the games are also on PS3 or PSP. If we pare both lists down to exclusives, we get

3DS
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Oni Training
Rune Factory 4
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy
Animal Crossing: Jump Out
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Project X Zone
AKB48+Me
Professor Layton VS Ace Attorney
Fantasy Life
Senran Kagura Burst
Medabots 7
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd
Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone
Grandpa Danger Conversion
Kokuga
Naruto SD Powerful Shippuden
Shin Megami Tensei IV


Vita
Ogarhythm
Special Reporting Division
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (timed, PS3 in 2013)
LittleBigPlanet
DJ Max Techinka Tune (arcade port)
Ys Celceta, Sea of Trees (technically a Ys IV remake, but essentially new)
Soul Sacrifice

 

[grimshawish]

Thats quite horrible looking :/

 

[redcrayon]

Presumably Japan will get Castlevania LOS: Mirror of Fate for the 3DS too.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Presumably Japan will get Castlevania LOS: Mirror of Fate for the 3DS too.

2013, like the rest of the world, probably.

 

[Tenki]

2013, like the rest of the world, probably.

Fall 2012 iirc

 

[Sammy Samusu]

3DS

2M+
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Animal Crossing: Jump Out

500k+
Paper Mario: Sticker Star

300k+
Professor Layton VS Ace Attorney
Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone

200k+
Bravely Default
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon

100k+
Oni Training (wild card)
AKB48+Me
Rune Factory 4
Project X Zone
Medabots 7
Samurai Chronicles 2nd
Shin Megami Tensei IV

Not Sure: Lost Heroes, E.X. Troopers


PSV

200k+
Soul Sacrifice (wild card)
Hatsune Miku Diva f

100k+
Legend of Heroes Zero no Kiseki Evolution
Earth Defense Forces 3 Portable (probably not)

This is how I see it.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Presumably Japan will get Castlevania LOS: Mirror of Fate for the 3DS too.

Yeah, there are other possibilities for 2012 yet too (like Style Savvy 2, Tomodachi Collection 2, Heroes of Ruin, PES 2013, etc).

 

[extralite]

Just to make sure, does the japanese version also have 7 languages? I see over at Play-Asia.com, and only the asian version is being mentioned to have 7 languages.

I have the demo which I think is the digital version with partial unlock keys (a new one each week up to the release), downloaded from the Japanese PSN. Not sure for the retail version but I don't see why it should be different. I plan to get the full digital version sometime soon so I'll be able to fully confirm it for that version.

 

[Novid]

I mean...do they do any...work over at Level 5? I mean look at the studio they are in.

 

[grimshawish]

3DS
200k+
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon

What are the sales of the first gamecube game in Japan? I'd think Luigi could pull similar to Paper Mario

PSV
200k+
Soul Sacrifice (wild card)

Bold. 200k would be a pretty big number for the Vita; can't really get behind that one.

 

[Takao]

Medarot 7 could probably do close to 200k. Medarot DS shipped 150k and this one's going all out with the nostalgia attacks.

As for Soul Sacrifice, I think that'll do 200k+ if it's good. Sony will push it hard, and if the game's quality can match I think they'll have a hit.

 

[Father_Brain]

Yeah, I think it's pretty unlikely that a new IP can sell that much over 150K on a userbase Vita's size without big, established IP (500K+) coming first to drive hardware adoption. 200K wouldn't be completely ridiculous, though.

 

[slaughterking]

Layton vs. AA was a certain 500k+ seller for me when it got announced considering how both franchises are 500k+ sellers individually. I'm not so sure anymore, though. The last Layton games was definitely a big drop from the DS games, but there could be many reasons for that and they may not exist anymore (or only to a lesser extend). And the AA series kinda disappeared off the radar completely, even though it may just feel that way because the last mainline game is over half a decade old.
Will be interesting to see what happens to that game. I hope it does really well.

 

[test_account]

I think the big problem with the Vita list is that half the games are also on PS3 or PSP. If we pare both lists down to exclusives, we get

Vita
Ogarhythm
Special Reporting Division
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (timed, PS3 in 2013)
LittleBigPlanet
DJ Max Techinka Tune (arcade port)
Ys Celceta, Sea of Trees (technically a Ys IV remake, but essentially new)
Soul Sacrifice

Assassins Creed 3: Liberation as well. It is not a port of AC3.

I have the demo which I think is the digital version with partial unlock keys (a new one each week up to the release), downloaded from the Japanese PSN. Not sure for the retail version but I don't see why it should be different. I plan to get the full digital version sometime soon so I'll be able to fully confirm it for that version.

Thanks. I guess that the game isnt very heavy texted anyway? Might just import the japanese version since i want a physical copy of it.

 

[donny2112]

On Brain Training 3D, I think the professor should be a drill instructor in the game. He can't be a demon for the same reason it can't be called Demon Training in the U.S., but a military drill instructor should get across the same "rigid, difficult training" idea for the U.S. audience. Curious to see what Nintendo does with it, though. If they keep him a demon for the U.S. release, NOA is crazy.

 

[Frillen]

Assassins Creed 3: Liberation as well. It is not a port of AC3.



Thanks. I guess that the game isnt very heavy texted anyway? Might just import the japanese version since i want a physical copy of it.

How much will Liberation sell in Japan though? 30k LTD? That's like nothing.

 

[test_account]

How much will Liberation sell in Japan though? 30k LTD? That's like nothing.

No idea, i just wanted to mention in regards to the list that is is not an AC3 port.

 

[nordique]

3DS is going to gain much momentum this year...its only going to get stronger next year and the year after that...

Crazy to think.

 

[JJConrad]

Also, the actual sales data thread is less than half as long as the Vita sales fail thread...

We've got one more week to go until the release of the 3DSLL, NSMB2, and Oni Training... which will then be followed by DQX. I wouldn't worry about the size of the sales thread... this will be quite small in comparison to the next few weeks.

On Brain Training 3D, I think the professor should be a drill instructor in the game. He can't be a demon for the same reason it can't be called Demon Training in the U.S., but a military drill instructor should get across the same "rigid, difficult training" idea for the U.S. audience. Curious to see what Nintendo does with it, though. If they keep him a demon for the U.S. release, NOA is crazy.

My guess is that they just call it Brain Age 3. Devil Kawashima can still represent a harder training level, they just don't emphasize it as much in their marketing.

 

[saichi]

3DS

2M+
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Animal Crossing: Jump Out

500k+
Paper Mario: Sticker Star

300k+
Professor Layton VS Ace Attorney
Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone

200k+
Bravely Default
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon

100k+
Oni Training (wild card)
AKB48+Me
Rune Factory 4
Project X Zone
Medabots 7
Samurai Chronicles 2nd
Shin Megami Tensei IV

Not Sure: Lost Heroes, E.X. Troopers


PSV

200k+
Soul Sacrifice (wild card)
Hatsune Miku Diva f

100k+
Legend of Heroes Zero no Kiseki Evolution
Earth Defense Forces 3 Portable (probably not)

This is how I see it.

really lowballing Oni Training eh... I'm pretty sure Oni Training would outsell Soul Sacrifice even if Soul Sacrifice becomes a surprise hit.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Assassins Creed 3: Liberation as well. It is not a port of AC3.

Sure, when I made the original list I was trying to keep it to "notable" stuff. If we pare both down to games that can reasonably move 100k+ then we have:

3DS
New Super Mario Bros. 2
Oni Training
Rune Factory 4
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy
Animal Crossing: Jump Out
Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon
Paper Mario: Sticker Star
Project X Zone
AKB48+Me
Professor Layton VS Ace Attorney
Fantasy Life
Senran Kagura Burst
Medabots 7
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd
Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone
Shin Megami Tensei IV


Vita
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (timed, PS3 in 2013)
Ys Celceta, Sea of Trees (technically a Ys IV remake, but essentially new)
Soul Sacrifice

 

[metalslimer]

What chances does Ys have of selling 100k? I was under the impression that was a very niche series?

 

[test_account]

Sure, when I made the original list I was trying to keep it to "notable" stuff. If we pare both down to games that can reasonably move 100k+ then we have:

I see. Are Kokuga and Grandpa Danger Conversion being a noticeable releases though? How much do you expect them to sell?

 

[Nirolak]

300k+
Professor Layton VS Ace Attorney

Pfft, as if that game is ever coming out.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I see. Are Kokuga and Grandpa Danger Conversion being a noticeable releases though? How much do you expect them to sell?

I don't expect much, but then I didn't make the 3DS list.

 

[test_account]

I don't expect much, but then I didn't make the 3DS list.

I understand. I thought you only included notable releases when you posted the 3DS list too (in post #301).

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Is there a chance for Rune Factory to sell 200k+? The new Harvest Moon on the 3DS was the best selling in the series, and latest data shows it has sold 190k. I have a feeling RF can do a bit better than that.

 

[donny2112]

really lowballing Oni Training eh... I'm pretty sure Oni Training would outsell Soul Sacrifice even if Soul Sacrifice becomes a surprise hit.

I just can't see Onitore selling less than a million LTD. This isn't like a Nintendogs, where they take out one of the main appeals of the game (i.e. actually petting/interacting directly with your animal). Also, it's coming out at a much more positive time in 3DS's lifespan. Now, it may not sell a million retail in Japan, since this game is like a poster-boy for why you'd want a game in digital form (i.e. few minutes a day play without having to take up the card slot all the time). However digital + retail, I just can't see being under a million for this game.

 

[slaughterking]

Pretty unlikely. Rune Factory is significantly less popular than HM. If RF4 can sell as good as the first game (150k-ish) I'd consider that really solid.

 

[test_account]

I just can't see Onitore selling less than a million LTD. This isn't like a Nintendogs, where they take out one of the main appeals of the game (i.e. actually petting/interacting directly with your animal). Also, it's coming out at a much more positive time in 3DS's lifespan. Now, it may not sell a million retail in Japan, since this game is like a poster-boy for why you'd want a game in digital form (i.e. few minutes a day play without having to take up the card slot all the time). However digital + retail, I just can't see being under a million for this game.

Luckily Nintendo have said that they will give out sales numbers for the digital version, so we will know the answer for sure =)

 

[donny2112]

Luckily Nintendo have said that they will give out sales numbers for the digital version, so we will know the answer for sure =)

Yeah, otherwise, probably wouldn't have brought it up. No point saying "It'll sell 10 kabillion in numbers we'll never see" or something. They're giving download details for Onitore and NSMB2. Hopefully it won't stop there, at least with their own games as far as giving out download sales.

 

[Aostia]

Luckily Nintendo have said that they will give out sales numbers for the digital version, so we will know the answer for sure =)

Didn't they say that they'll release DD numbers just for Mario?
Or was their sentence related to DD sales in general?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

What chances does Ys have of selling 100k? I was under the impression that was a very niche series?

A low one, but between the upped production values and the starved Vita base, I think it might push it up a bit.

 

[Nirolak]

A low one, but between the upped production values and the starved Vita base, I think it might push it up a bit.

Yeah, there usually are minor benefits to being on an empty system.

The Conduit did 72,000 in NPD when it came out, which is actually higher than Syndicate or Binary Domain managed.

Edit: Looking back for a game before this year, that should be about on par with Vanquish's opening month as well.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Yeah, otherwise, probably wouldn't have brought it up. No point saying "It'll sell 10 kabillion in numbers we'll never see" or something. They're giving download details for Onitore and NSMB2. Hopefully it won't stop there, at least with their own games as far as giving out download sales.

Is there a way to determine any kind of online sales? (like PSN reviews for Vita)

 

[test_account]

Yeah, otherwise, probably wouldn't have brought it up. No point saying "It'll sell 10 kabillion in numbers we'll never see" or something. They're giving download details for Onitore and NSMB2. Hopefully it won't stop there, at least with their own games as far as giving out download sales.

I hope that they release region specific numbers. I know that it was said at the japanese shareholder conference, but sales for rest of the world is just as important for a company.

Didn't they say that they'll release DD numbers just for Mario?
Or was their sentence related to DD sales in general?

Looking up the quote, it says:

"We would like to show the public the number of New Super Mario Bros. 2 or Onitore that have been sold by download so that those
in this industry can make the next move after finding out the consumer behaviour toward download version," said Nintendo president Satoru Iwata.

There is an "or" there, so maybe they will just give out numbers for one of the games.

 

[walking fiend]

I just can't see Onitore selling less than a million LTD. This isn't like a Nintendogs, where they take out one of the main appeals of the game (i.e. actually petting/interacting directly with your animal).

That was one of the strangest things about the game; I was baffled people giving it very good reviews at Amazon etc. despite this


----
I also wanted to point out that unlike western countries, the growth of social gaming and gaming on smartphones apparently hasn't damaged the 3DS momentum; do you think it is because that 3DS is actually being supported much more solidly at Japan? (more and better games?)

 

[Aostia]

I hope that they release region specific numbers. I know that it was said at the japanese shareholder conference, but sales for rest of the world is just as important for a company.



Looking up the quote, it says:

"We would like to show the public the number of New Super Mario Bros. 2 or Onitore that have been sold by download so that those
in this industry can make the next move after finding out the consumer behaviour toward download version," said Nintendo president Satoru Iwata.

There is an "or" there, so maybe they will just give out numbers for one of the games.

thank you for the quote, I didn't remember it properly

 

[nordique]

Yeah, there usually are minor benefits to being on an empty system.

The Conduit did 72,000 in NPD when it came out, which is actually higher than Syndicate or Binary Domain managed.

Edit: Looking back for a game before this year, that should be about on par with Vanquish's opening month as well.

Agreed.

If a company can take advantage of that, then they can find success within a niche or what market is well represented by the system. Its like the Gamecube, even though it was neglected by most hardware purchasers and software developers (3rd party) it still found home to a few gems that were worth owning the system for, especially for gaming enthusiasts. It might not change the public perception of the system in Japan, but it could end up not being a waste of money for those core gamers who picked up the system. Soul Sacrifice could have a strong chance at being one of those games.

Gamecube tanked in Japan but was still able to muster some nice third party titles in addition to first party exclusives like MGS TS, Billy Hatcher, FF CC, Lost Kingdoms I + II, Megaman NT, PN 03, PSO I&II + III, Baten Kaitos, RE 0, Dreamcast ports (Skies of Arcadia & Sonic Adventure games), in addition to having some notable third party releases like Tales of Symph, Re4, Winning 11, and stuff like that.

It could carve out a respectable niche.

For gaming enthusiasts in Japan who frequent sites akin to GAF it could end up being a notable purchase (and I think it will)

3DS seems like it is going to be the "PS2" though, to Vita's "Gamecube"



Just to add to your point, Conduit wasn't even a good game but it satisfied a starved market to the extent it did well enough to warrant a sequel

 

[Izayoi]

Stop posting lists that get more and more grim every time. ;_;

Is that Vita Heaven thing still happening?

 

[fabfour64xx]

Agreed.

If a company can take advantage of that, then they can find success within a niche or what market is well represented by the system. Its like the Gamecube, even though it was neglected by most hardware purchasers and software developers (3rd party) it still found home to a few gems that were worth owning the system for, especially for gaming enthusiasts. It might not change the public perception of the system in Japan, but it could end up not being a waste of money for those core gamers who picked up the system. Soul Sacrifice could have a strong chance at being one of those games.

Gamecube tanked in Japan but was still able to muster some nice third party titles in addition to first party exclusives like MGS TS, Billy Hatcher, FF CC, Lost Kingdoms I + II, Megaman NT, PN 03, PSO I&II + III, Baten Kaitos, RE 0, Dreamcast ports (Skies of Arcadia & Sonic Adventure games), in addition to having some notable third party releases like Tales of Symph, Re4, Winning 11, and stuff like that.

It could carve out a respectable niche.

For gaming enthusiasts in Japan who frequent sites akin to GAF it could end up being a notable purchase (and I think it will)

3DS seems like it is going to be the "PS2" though, to Vita's "Gamecube"

From what we've seen so far, it's hard to disagree with that.

 

[Nirolak]

Stop posting lists that get more and more grim every time. ;_;

Is that Vita Heaven thing still happening?

At some point yes. They're promising "major announcements", but uh... I'm not holding my breath.

 

[metalslimer]

3DS seems like it is going to be the "PS2" though, to Vita's "Gamecube"

Gamecube had some great selling software. I wonder if anything will ever sell over a million on Vita

 

[Nirolak]

Gamecube had some great selling software. I wonder if anything will ever sell over a million on Vita

The only game that ever broke a million on PSP was Monster Hunter, so it's probably not too likely.

 

[slaughterking]

The Conduit did 72,000 in NPD when it came out, which is actually higher than Syndicate or Binary Domain managed.

Edit: Looking back for a game before this year, that should be about on par with Vanquish's opening month as well.

Talk about putting things into perspective. Damn.

 

[Boney]

At some point yes. They're promising "major announcements", but uh... I'm not holding my breath.

How many Nintendo Directs have happened since the first Vita Heaven?

 

[nordique]

From what we've seen so far, it's hard to disagree with that.

What I find fascinating, is the 3DS will really be the first "modern graphically" capable system that will be home to all the major franchises in Japan, especially the biggest hitters, perhaps since the Super NES. I mean, the only thing Sony lacked during its domination PS1/PS2 years were the popular Nintendo franchises.

On the 3DS, given the portable system "shift" occurring there where the portable platforms are now the primary focus of Japanese centric publishers, the largest franchises will all be on the 3DS (or very likely will be on the 3DS in some major shape or form) with respectable graphics. This isn't the O.G. DS tech-wise.

- Mario
- Pokemon
- Monster Hunter
- Dragon Quest


And I think Final Fantasy will make a much stronger presence there soon, outside of that rhythm game. Square Enix is clearly showing which platform will be getting most of their support.

Mid level publishers are throwing their support behind it.

Nintendo is targeting all types of core gamers, casual fans, younger gaming enthusiasts, older enthusiasts, mature gamers... take your pick.

We have yet to see the 3DS's best years...I think its going to be a haven down the road [esp for Japanese gamers...lucky guys!].

The biggest thing is that software sales are actually fairly strong on it. We have heard so many times in the past how third party games "don't" sell on Nintendo systems (or so the claim is) but with the 3DS in Japan, though certain titles haven't performed up to expectations, the sales are still respectable and overall are pretty strong.

I suppose a "healthy market" is the best term to use.

 

[metalslimer]

How many Nintendo Directs have happened since the first Vita Heaven?

Not including the E3 one and the mini Brain Training one I think only 1. Including them 3.

What I find fascinating, is the 3DS will really be the first "modern graphically" capable system that will be home to all the major franchises in Japan, especially the biggest hitters, perhaps since the Super NES. I mean, the only thing Sony lacked during its domination PS1/PS2 years were the popular Nintendo franchises.

On the 3DS, given the portable system "shift" occurring there where the portable platforms are now the primary focus of Japanese centric publishers, the largest franchises will all be on the 3DS (or very likely will be on the 3DS in some major shape or form)

- Mario
- Pokemon
- Monster Hunter
- Dragon Quest


And I think Final Fantasy will make a much stronger presence there soon, outside of that rhythm game. Square Enix is clearly showing which platform will be getting most of their support.

Mid level publishers are throwing their support behind it.

Nintendo is targeting all types of core gamers, casual fans, younger gaming enthusiasts, older enthusiasts, mature gamers... take your pick.

We have yet to see the 3DS's best years...I think its going to be a haven down the road.

The biggest thing is that software sales are actually fairly strong on it. We have heard so many times in the past how third party games "don't" sell on Nintendo systems (or so the claim is) but with the 3DS in Japan, though certain titles haven't performed up to expectations, the sales are still respectable and overall are pretty strong.

I suppose a "healthy market" is the best term to use.

The biggest strike against the 3DS in having a truly healthy market is western sales. A game maker targeting the west with a M rated game isn't necessarily going to go that route especially after Resident Evil. The PS2 was such a dominant system because of how much it dominated everywhere. I doubt we'll ever see a system like the PS2 again.

 

[Nirolak]

Talk about putting things into perspective. Damn.

My personal favorite comparison is about generation decline and how Dante's Inferno's first month outsold Max Payne 3's first month, the 5-6 years in development, 5+ studio Rockstar May game.

How many Nintendo Directs have happened since the first Vita Heaven?

I think it's been two, but I could be wrong. Can't remember if the first one happened right before or right after.

 

[Dalthien]

I just can't see Onitore selling less than a million LTD. This isn't like a Nintendogs, where they take out one of the main appeals of the game (i.e. actually petting/interacting directly with your animal).

Not to mention that Nintendogs will still end up somewhere around a million anyway.