Let's be clear. This is Nintendo's most competitive AAA 3rd party platform since GameCube. Nintendo consumers need to support 3rd parties, if they want to receive these titles. 3rd parties need to give the consumers quality ports.
I do think in year 1 and year 2 of Switch 2's life, you WILL receive these quality ports. Going forward thereafter it will depend on how the consumers support 3rd parties.
*IF* 1 million sales is the litmus test for good sales on AAA, I think some of the announced/rumored AAA 3rd party titles games easily sell that. Some will be annually, some will be cumulative over years.
IE…EA FC, Madden, NBA 2k, Civ (over time), SFVI, Cyberpunk, MLB, Hogwarts, and more rumored games like COD, Halo, Tekken, Goldeneye Remastered, Octopath 3, Resident Evil, Metal Gear, FFVIIR, DQXI, etc. Hell, Bomberman R sold over a million units on Switch, i suspect Bomberman collection could also sell over a million lifetime on Switch 2.
Other games like PvZ, Assassins Creed Mirage, Star Wars Outlaws may not break a million, but could sell VERY WELL! And the sales could fully justify the port.
I am not counting things like Minecraft which are essential to platform success, just like Fortnite and Rocket League, and even something like Genshin. Those games are different conversations. Those games will do extremely well.
Sonic the Hedgehog titles will continue to be profitable and seem on an upward trajectory. It seems somewhat predictable.
There is a TON of opportunity for 3rd parties. On paper, there seems to be a huge opportunity for Xbox games and older PlayStation first party titles as well. We will see later this year, but hopefully 3rd parties have a few more unannounced big titles for 2025 on NS2!