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Media Create 17-23 April
- Thread starter Jonnyram
- Start date
Unless it's a straightforward copyright infringement, bans usually only happen when it's someone who is obviously destroying the carefully maintained balance of GAF's delicate environment. Obviously someone thought Monorojo had exceeded the strict pollution levels, so he was removed from the atmosphere. I can't say I disagree with the decision.
duckroll said:Bans don't get justified on GAF, what are you, a noob? This is a private message board. Anyway he was probably banned because he kept pissing everyone off with his nonsense in a dozen different threads. He doesn't ONLY post on Media Create threads you know.
It was a combinations of factors & posts. OK. Now it is clear. What surprises me is the fact that an administrator has waited more then 36 hours to decide to ban him and in a thread where he said nothing: it was only a suprise, personally.
Thanks for the answer.
Jonnyram said:
Error2k4 said:
It is OK. Now it is absolutely clear. I was just curious. Thanks.
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Now, back to the topic, have we Hardware's Estimations for this week ?
Sometimes it's good to pretend that GAF is like a real life classroom or party of some sort.
Monorojo obviously would be the person who bugs everyone with his views, so everyone would simply shy away or argue with him until they're blue in the face. And then, the party owner throws him out.
It's mainly the reason why I wonder why some posters are so damn annoying. In real life that wouldn't pass, but on the net, they've got that blanket to protect them.
Monorojo obviously would be the person who bugs everyone with his views, so everyone would simply shy away or argue with him until they're blue in the face. And then, the party owner throws him out.
It's mainly the reason why I wonder why some posters are so damn annoying. In real life that wouldn't pass, but on the net, they've got that blanket to protect them.
duckroll said:In real life the exact same thing would happen though. Ever heard of that fucking annoying friend of a friend? If that friend is hosting a party, no matter how annoying his friend is, why would he throw him out?
In real life though, the signals eventually get people to stop.
However your case does apply to Drinky Crow. :lol
No amount of "=_=" smilies would ever get any annoying person here to stop though.
cvxfreak said:In real life though, the signals eventually get people to stop.
However your case does apply to Drinky Crow. :lol
No amount of "=_=" smilies would ever get any annoying person here to stop though.
We just had an influx of 600 new members. Logistically speaking, this is like an open-door party that never ends and people go to work/school/whatever and just come right back after. So basically since new people keep coming in, even if you managed to get everyone BEFORE that to stop, someone will always come in and start it again.
Anyway, discussing that crap is boring, I'll rather discuss how Mother 3 has a good start (ioi needs to note that the initial shipment was ONLY 300k, there's no way it can do 450k in a week when only 300k were shipped!), plus this week is golden week so expect sales to go up even more. Yangus is fucking disappointing, no two ways about it, I'm to blame too since I didn't buy it. But I -did- buy Okami, and it's sad to see not many other people did. :lol
MrSardonic
The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
lancubap said:
duckroll said:
Well, no but it didn't even sell out the shipment, and I thought 300k initial shipment was being conservative. It will hold ok over the next few weeks but I can't see it doing 500k which is a shame :-( It's not a bad performance, but not worthy of a game that has been massively anticipated for the last 10 years. It only sold three times as much as some average Dragonball game on the PSP.
And about predicting the top 10, you may have had all the right games, but not necessarily in the right order ;-) (some UK people may get the reference)
ioi said:
It's impossible to sell out a shipment logistically. Because one entire shipment would be distributed over every store that ordered the game in the entire nation, including import stores taking from suppliers and whatnot, a complete sell-out is impossible. If anything, a low initial shipment limits the potential sales of a game even more simply because places where the game IS in demand in might not have enough stock, while stock is left rotting in other places. I know you HATE the idea that a game that is IN DEMAND might have entire shelves filled with it in some corner of the world, but realistically, that happens all the time.
I think the popularity of Mother is really overstated here on GAF. It's not that it's unpopular but there haven't been that many people actually WAITING for it for 10 years. It was more of a "if it comes out cool, otherwise... whatever" reaction.
And you had the wrong games AND the wrong order! :lol
duckroll said:
Agreed, but 200k from 300k is no where near to even getting close to selling out. If demand was there then it would have sold 270-280k.
duckroll said:
Well it has been on the Famistu most wanted since whenever which as we've said although not a direct representation of sales it does show that there has been a lot of demand amongst hardcore gamers, no?
duckroll said:
Well if I have the wrong games then it's impossible for them to be in the right order isn't it
But my order and guesses were better than yours on the whole!
ioi said:
It was only starfi vs pokemon rangers i missed, a bit high for Mother and a bit low for Okami and DBZ.
ioi said:
Ninety Nine Nights was on the Famitsu Most Wanted too.
As I said, the demand was definitely overstated, but I expected at least 200k. I guess with almost no advertising, that's what you get!Well if I have the wrong games then it's impossible for them to be in the right order isn't it
But my order and guesses were better than yours on the whole!
But you're lying. After I posted my predictions here's what you had:
ioi said:
True, I was miles out with those original guesses :lol
But to be honest, that's what Mother 3 and DQ Yangus should have done.
I was miles over for the language titles, I thought they would see a bit more success than they have, Starfi has been disappointing and I didn't expect Animal Crossing to begin dropping just yet.
Sales are pretty low across the board really compared to how they should have performed. Only Dragonball Z and to a lesser extent Okami have something to be happy about this week imo.
But to be honest, that's what Mother 3 and DQ Yangus should have done.
I was miles over for the language titles, I thought they would see a bit more success than they have, Starfi has been disappointing and I didn't expect Animal Crossing to begin dropping just yet.
Sales are pretty low across the board really compared to how they should have performed. Only Dragonball Z and to a lesser extent Okami have something to be happy about this week imo.
Darmstadtium
Bandwagoner
So who is is Starfi and why is he a legend?
duckroll said:I hope Nintendo shipped MORE Mother 3 for Golden Week though. It would be sad to have another unshipped disaster, but at least it won't be as horrible as Bleach DS. That was tragic.
well I think it'll sell around 70-80k this week so they may not need to
Do you have the Famitsu numbers from last week Duckroll?
Darmstadtium
Bandwagoner
He's a giant underwater star that i presume never made it to america? Awesome...
ioi said:well I think it'll sell around 70-80k this week so they may not need to
Do you have the Famitsu numbers from last week Duckroll?
You're probably right. Too many new titles on the DS this week too.
Yeah, I couldn't post them because the Famitsu thread this week got locked due to the Tekken 6 and Chrono Trigger DS double-trap. :lol
1.More BT 73993 1957244
2.Starfe4 53879
3.AniCross 49596 2560882
4.BT 45645 2032168
5.GGXXSlash 43479
6.Ranger 38038 360128
7.Englist 35147 786202
8.FF12 26816 2221224
9.ProSpirits3 26368 100461
10.BurningStar(Baseball) 24006 79949
11.PowerPro-P 20090 79053
12.MakSoccerEC 17825 206479
13.MarioKart 15862 1273757
14.ACE2 11973 159529
15.Dic 11072
16.AC0 8617 169078
17.Nindog 8513 1209477
18.Seiken 8455 215134
19.DW5E 8048 96952
20.BLACK 7573 22555
21.MonHunP 7498 593934
22.Pacislot 7448 42314
23.Crayonshin 6639 37127
24.AnbeiDaizen 6604 495820
25.Zettai2 5753 45356
26.Tamagotchi 5695 1060397
27.Mother1+2 5473 33102
28.Suumari 4766 1153173
29.NarutoP 4363 41162
30.Sudoku 4344 17257
Hardware: (NOT THIS WEEK'S, NOT NOT NOT)
DSL　160340
DS　 　36041
PS2　　30005
PSP　　29856
GBASP　8926
GBM　　　2862
X360　　1780
GC　　　　1113
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Well, doesn't look too bad for Okami. Many titles there need legs...I think it was a crowded week, Mother, Yangus, FFXI, Okami, Starfi and N3...Golden Week is this one or the next? Hope that helps.
milanbaros
Member?
Busaiku said:
#25 is another good week for Com. It has dropped 8 places but the #10 spot is 30k this week compared to 20k last week, so its a higher sales week overall. I expect it to have dropped no more than 25%.
Nope, it's a total bomb. Capcom/Clover weren't happy with Viewtiful Joe's sales and it charted 47k 1st week and was easily a much lower budget production on a much smaller userbase. Clover's about to lose their ass on Ookami... expect ports and an engine reused sequel soon.ioi said:
jarrod said:
Yeah because the engine they spent years writing around the archaic PS2 is going to be so easy to move to another platform right? I think their comments on the subject of ports have been fairly clear that they would lose even more money overall if they tried. Engine reuse is a distinct possibility though.
The costs of porting are negligible compared to original R&D, the big costs in Ookami were likely more the planning work rather than the code work. Porting up to a more capable platform would likely cut costs further just by the nature of being less demanding... this wouldn't be like RE4 PS2.Mmmkay said:
I expect we'll probably see a Revolution port, maybe even 360, followed by a quick multiplatform sequel late next year. Viewtiful Joe lays out a nice roadmap for Clover "bombs".
jarrod said:
So in your estimation, the cost of developing a Revolution version of Okami would be less than the expected revenue from sales? Consider us in disagreement on that one. I made no suggestion that the overall costs of Okami were comparable to that of a port.
If they are going to continue the franchise, they may take more losses in the short term by making it multiplatform with the intention of seeing profits from a sequel at a later date. But I have concerns that they are going to get the green light for it, given the disappointing forecasts for the Rev's growth and the 360's non-existent presence in Japan. VJ and RE4 were easy decisions because they were moved to a significantly larger installed base.
I think your notions are overly pessimistic. As with Viewtiful Joe, the best way to try and ensure survival for a new brand like Ookami is by expanding it's potential base. Especially given it's similraly underwhelming initial performance.Mmmkay said:
I also think you're being too short sighted on platform slection here. Clover are self-admitted Nintendo enthusiasts and the dedicated Nintendo base has likewise been overwhelmingly the most supportive of their software. Given the lowered effort/costs demanded in "porting up", plus a hungry new userbase (which can often drive sales of new IPs... see: Monkey Ball) combined with Clover's track record on Nintendo consoles and suddenly Revolution starts looking like a natural fit for any attempt to recoup on the game quickly for little investment. It doesn't have the massive base PS2 did when Joe was greenlit, but there's other obvious elements pushing in it's favor. I'd also take issue with your claim of "dissapointing forecasts" for the platform, that hardly seems to be what the majority of outlets are claiming... particularly in it's national market. To be honest, given the lifecycles we're at and potential costs involved, I think a Revolution port of Ookami is even more likely than a PS2-only Ookami 2.
I don't think Revolution's the only potential home for a port though... I could easily see Ookami on Xbox 360 or PSP really (though the latter would likely demand a more intensive conversion process/R&D cycle). Clover's position within Capcom is similar to the Dreamcast era SEGA setup, where R&D divisions were given ficsal responsibility and freed from management overhead... it's in their interests to make the Ookami brand a success, and it's not looking like that's going to happen on PS2 alone. Again, Viewtiful Joe lays out a nice roadmap.
jGuru said:
It won't even reach the top 10 since one of the "Generation" games big selling points it's their budget price. Besides going by how a recent attempt of a classical action puzzler published by Nintendo did in PuzzLoop and Tetris "bombing" in NA you can't have high expectations.
jarrod said:
I think VJ was developed to be much more franchise oriented than Okami. Are we really going to see an Okami TV show? Your argument seems to hinge around the idea that underperforming titles are expected to spawn ports to recover losses. There are hundreds of titles which under perform every year and see no recoupment through porting.
If you are talking about something which may be specific to Clover, then I don't think we've seen a precedent for what you're suggesting with Okami. Your opinion of Clover is also seething with bias and I don't think you're being objective.
I again strongly disagree that in Okami's case a port will be a simple affair. Firstly, we're talking about remarketing a 'failed' brand. That in itself is going to make any publisher hesitant. Secondly, there is the delayed exclusive port effect where in the majority of cases the new market underperforms the old one. On a technical side, while the cost of developing the engine may not have been the focus of Okami's budget, it's unquestionable that it's going to be intimately tied to the PS2 hardware. Lots of assembly code and to the metal solutions. I believe that this engine is going to require more than a little effort to move to another platform, despite being more powerful. There will not be a 360 version, it's almost laughable that you've brought that up twice now. I think you're just trying to pad out the options
I have yet to see a single forecast which suggests the Revolution is going to provide any more support in Japan than it's predecessor did. I am always interested in keeping up to date with events like these, so if you have some sources to indicate a stronger showing from Rev in Japan, then I'd be happy to see them.
All I'm saying is that I don't see Okami's 'apparent' failure as an indication of it appearing on the Revolution. If it does, then it may be part of a longer term strategy for the franchise, but not as a short term measure to recover losses. A Rev port would be an investment in an installed base for profits from a sequel not a solution to bankroll Okami 1.
Nearly all games are developed with "franchise potential" in mind. Joe's merchandising and brand expansion came months after it's original summer 2003 release though, I wouldn't be so quick to affirm that as premeditated as compared to Ookami.Mmmkay said:
In what respect? Again, I think Viewtiful Joe shows a very workable precedent, complete with questionable "failure" status.Mmmkay said:
Well, that's part of the decision making process Clover (not Capcom) faces... balancing risk and potential. It really comes down to how much they want to push Ookami and how much potential other platforms offer.Mmmkay said:
That's part of the advantage in moving to a new platform though, similar results can be achieved with less effort by building a new engine and simply reusing art assets... this is the ideogology behind plenty of low cost PSP ports, though there far more effort is demanded in the codework to reach a PS2-level target result as compared to moving towards higher end platforms.Mmmkay said:
I do think it's possible, though I'd agree in 360 being a less likely home than some other platforms (Wii/PSP).Mmmkay said:There will not be a 360 version, it's almost laughable that you've brought that up twice now. I think you're just trying to pad out the options
Well, I'm going mainly off consumer/industry/retail polls presented by various industry media outlets like this poll, this poll, this poll or this recent Famitsu poll... I haven't seen anything really concrete from JP investment firms though.Mmmkay said:
In general, I've found most forecasts to be conflicting at best, especially given how little firms have had to work with in terms of public knowledge... I'm certainly not seeing any "dissapointing" trend here in America though either, care to source the various forecasts which brought you to this conclusion? The only really "dissapointing" one I can recall is from Piper Jaffray for year end 2006, who's track record is fairly open to debate. Equally controversial though, Webush Morgan's Patcher has chimed in highlighting Revolution's potential and even predicts it taking 2nd place ahead of 360 in the US.
Well, I'd agree there... again it'd follow Viewtiful Joe's roadmap, which a quick PS2 port paved the way for a quick engine reused mulitplatform sequel. Ookami Wii wouldn't be as much about recouping costs for PS2 Ookami 1 as it would be attempting to provide a wider audience for the brand's future. Clover's sunk a lot into pushing Viewtiful Joe as a sustainable brand, I can definitely see them giving Ookami the same sort of push.Mmmkay said:
*shrug* Other than them both being 'apparent' failures, I'm just saying they don't share that much in common. The timing of Joe, its genre, and stylism played to its advantage as a franchise. I see it as having a much stronger brand potential, compared to Okami which you would be hard pressed to imagine a sequel coming in less than 2 years.
Eh, I don't think it's a very good idea reading much into reader polls. Nor, admittedly, is it a great idea to look at analyst forecasts when most were done a while ago. Nikko Citigroup gave a forecast of 4.25m in Japan and 11.1m for NA by the end of FY 2012. But the fact that there is uncertainty and that decisions would have to have been made in recent months whether to pursue a port, I think they would have found it hard to be optimistic about sales forecasts.
Viewtiful Joe though, has it been a successful franchise? Haven't most of the other games underperformed too? Wouldn't that have a negative impact on its 'precedent'?
Eh, I don't think it's a very good idea reading much into reader polls. Nor, admittedly, is it a great idea to look at analyst forecasts when most were done a while ago. Nikko Citigroup gave a forecast of 4.25m in Japan and 11.1m for NA by the end of FY 2012. But the fact that there is uncertainty and that decisions would have to have been made in recent months whether to pursue a port, I think they would have found it hard to be optimistic about sales forecasts.
Viewtiful Joe though, has it been a successful franchise? Haven't most of the other games underperformed too? Wouldn't that have a negative impact on its 'precedent'?
