Support NeoGAF

[Souldriver]

Now THIS is bad.
Was the Gamecube boost because of a hollyday?

 

[ivysaur12]

Now I'm all paranoid about the source of these numbers. What has become of Media Create theads!?

If there was ever a GAF game I feel like ioi would be the main villain.

 

[Evlar]

Now THIS is bad.
Was the Gamecube boost because of a hollyday?

Yeah, that spike you see is Christmas/New Years.

 

[cvxfreak]

Heroes of Mana on Amazon Japan

Now 2937 Yen. :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Now THIS is bad.
Was the Gamecube boost because of a hollyday?

Yeah, the Gamecube was just hitting Xmas at this point. Think of how far behind the PS3 is going to be rather soon.

 

[donny2112]

Youme Town
Wii: Sold Out
DS lite: 1 (pink)
Layton: Sold Out
DQM:J 1 copy

Mr. Max
Wii: Sold Out
DS lite: sold out
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J Sold out

Book-Net
Wii: Sold out
DS lite: sold out
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J Sold out

Goody
Wii: Never had any to begin with
DS lite: 1 used (white) Selling for only 200 yen less than a new one
Layton: Sold Out
DQM:J 1 used copy

Best Denki
Wii: Sold out
DS lite: Sold out
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J Sold out

Wanpaku
Wii: Sold out
DS lite: Sold out
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J Sold out

Famicom Dojo
Wii: 1 used
DS lite: Sold out
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J Sold out

Totals (7 stores):
Wii: 1 used
DS Lite: 2 (1 new, 1 used)
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J: 2 (1 new, 1 used)

Could you add a total like that for next week?

6. I was talking to Hiro (the owner of Famicom Dojo) and he told me about selling games in the 1980’s. He said that at his store the Famicom was supply constrained for more than 3 years. People would come every day asking if Nintendo had shipped any more. Tired of having all these customers go home empty handed he tried to sell the Epoch Super Cassette Vision. But people wanted Mario and wouldn’t settle for anything less.

And people still wonder how Nintendo can still have DS Lite shortages after a scant 14 months. :lol

 

[apujanata]

PS3 comparisons: At 19 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 1.9 weeks (March 11, 2000), PSP was at 8.5 weeks (February 2, 2005), where GCN was at 14.9 weeks (December 22, 2001), and where Wii was at 3.8 weeks (December 22, 2006).

PS3 is much slower than GC ? Alert, alert.

Edit : Sorry, forgot about the GCN holiday boost. Stand down the alert, please.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

Ouch at Heroes of Mana. Wasn't it supposed to be quite good?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

PS3 is much slower than GC ? Alert, alert.

Edit : Sorry, forgot about the GCN holiday boost. Stand down the alert, please.

Actually, the presence of the holiday makes it worse. The PS3 has had trouble keeping pace, with a holiday season under its belt vs a Gamecube without.

 

[PantherLotus]

This Week Sales:

Since 11/27/07:
16 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
10 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.

360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 10,145. Post Holiday Avg = 5,340.
Wii - Return to trend: 58-75k. Next Gen Avg = 114,674. Post Holiday Avg = 71,981.
PS3 - Return to trend: 19-25k. Next Gen Avg = 38,602. Post Holiday Avg = 24,653.

Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. A week on week perspective (upper graph) actually shows a CONTINUED slide to oblivion. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.

● PS3 returns to normalcy (21k?) much sooner than gundabump fans would have liked. Even I had predicted a more prolonged bump in combination with recent announcements. The quicker-than-expected drop simply shows that it's going to take more than announcements and single titles. 19-25k for the next 4 weeks.

● The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments. While I am bullish on the Wii sales, I have to lower the expected average (in JPN) from 60-80k down to 50-70k for the next 3 weeks, with the expectation that Nintendo will drop a 200k bomb in the near near future (3rd week of April?).

Expectations for 03/19-03/26
360 - 3k
Wii - 65k <<NAILED IT last week, but don't be surprised if it goes down again (54k?), per the pattern.
PS3 - 22k

This Week's Market Share:

Market Share Week-to-Week

[B][U]Date____               360             Wii             PS3[/U][/B]
11/27-12/03:            25%             49%             26%
12/04-12/10:            24%             49%             27%
12/11-12/17:            21%             50%             29%
12/18-12/24:            17%             57%             26%
12/25-12/31:            16%             56%             28%
01/01-01/07:            15%             58%             27%
01/08-01/14:            14%             59%             27%
01/15-01/21:            14%             60%             26%
01/22-01/28:            13%             60%             26%
01/29-02/04:            13%             61%             26%
02/05-02/11:            13%             61%             26%
02/12-02/18:            13%             62%             26%
02/19-02/25:            12%             62%             25%
03/26-03/04:            12%             62%             26%
03/05-03/11:            12%             62%             26%
03/05-03/11:            11%             62%             26%

Significant Notes:
&#9679; The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 3 weeks.
&#9679; The Wii has never sold less than 44k in one week.
&#9679; The Wii is averaging 72k units in the 10 week post-holiday period.
&#9679; The PS3 is averaging 25k units in the 10 week post-holiday period.
&#9679; The Wii sold 3.10x the PS3 this week, and has 2.92x as many YTD, and 2.37x LTD. (thnx jjs)

If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
&#9679; The Wii will have a 1.5 million unit lead by the end of May.
&#9679; The Wii will have a 2 million unit lead by August. Seriously.
&#9679; The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by the January 08.

PL MC POST HISTORY
Click for accountability!
01/15-01/21
01/22-01/28
01/29-02/04
02/05-02/11
02/12-02/18
02/19-02/25
02/26-03/04
03/05-03/11

 

[OnWarmerMusic]

"Vinnk's Village" Anecdotal Report

Awesome work, Vinnk. I loved the anecdote about the Famicom shortage.

Ouch at Heroes of Mana. Wasn't it supposed to be quite good?

It looks awesome, but I seem to remember one of the Jgaffers (prolly ducky) saying that there was no hype for it over there, and he expected it to tank.

 

[Evlar]

Awesome analysis as usual from PantherLotus.

If I'm looking at this correctly, we can expect Wii to reach 1 million YTD in 2 weeks, and 2 million LTD in 4 weeks (or perhaps 3 weeks with average sales +55,000).

 

[ComputerNerd]

Now THIS is bad.
Was the Gamecube boost because of a hollyday?

Yup. The PS3 already had it's holiday.

 

[corez]

"Vinnk's Village" Anecdotal Report

I will track sales from all the stores that sell video games. They are:

2 department stores that sell games (Jusco and Youme Town)
1 discount store with a very small game section. (Mr.Max)
1 manga/anime/game store (Book-net)
1 porn store that tries to look legitimate buy having a small game/DVD section in the front and a massive porn section behind a curtain. (Goody)
1 electronics chain store with a game section (Best Denki)
2 dedicated game stores (Wanpaku and Famicom Dojo)

Thanks Vinnk for the concise report on your small town.

Psss. Did you get any prons while you were in the fourth shop?.

 

[Vinnk]

Totals (7 stores):
Wii: 1 used
DS Lite: 2 (1 new, 1 used)
Layton: Sold out
DQM:J: 2 (1 new, 1 used)

Could you add a total like that for next week?



And people still wonder how Nintendo can still have DS Lite shortages after a scant 14 months. :lol

Thank you for all the feedback guys! I am glad (and a bit surprised) you like the post. I willl add totals next week. And if anyone has requests for games I should "track" (or any other feedback), let me know.

Oh and one more bit of information:

Fire Emblem was not sold out at any store I went to other than the Anime/Manga/Game store. Which is too bad because it looks like a great game.

 

[Pellham]

Hmm, I thought that PoR did about 200k. Guess I was wrong.
In any case, I was still basing it off the fact that it only sold 58% of its shipment.

PoR did 150k... GoD is on track to sell 150k as well. What's the big deal? That's a fairly respectable number for a game in the SRPG genre. And this is not even considering potential US sales which will likely be in the 200k+ range.

It would be a bomb if it sold less than 50k.

 

[Vinnk]

Fancy charts and graphs

Thank you! I look forward to your graphs and summations every week. I am a visual person and the numbers really start to mean something when represented as a giant Wii Pac-man devouring its rivals.

 

[donny2112]

The Wii finally starts going back up.

 

[Desperado]

Thanks for all the graphs and analysis, guys.

 

[alejob]

:lol

Now imagine what would happen if the Wii actualy had games and the hardware was in stock!

 

[perfectchaos007]

I like how the PS3 stays between the lines of the Wii and 360. No lines ever cross.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

&#9679; The Wii sold 3.10x the PS3 this week, and has 2.92x as many LTD.

I said WOW

 

[chibcicylist]

Greatness.

great job man and wow at Wii pacman!

I think that everyone can almost proclaim that the wii has won Japan at this point. I don't see that changing at all in the next 12 months. Wii already has a killer app out.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I said WOW

 

[schuelma]

I'm almost ready to call Japan for the Wii. Is there any realistic scenario where PS3 comes back?

 

[AniHawk]

I'm almost ready to call Japan for the Wii. Is there any realistic scenario where PS3 comes back?

Wait for DMC4 MGS4.

 

[schuelma]

Wait for DMC4 MGS4.

Since I'm new at this- is MGS that huge in Japan? I assume its big, but not FF/DQ massive?

 

[splattergnome]

I'm almost ready to call Japan for the Wii. Is there any realistic scenario where PS3 comes back?

Deliberate and systematic sabotage of the Wii production plants, raids of rabid Sonyfans on a suicide mission storming Nintendo headquarters and liquidating each every employee, and a government law forbidding the sale or purchase of Wii consoles by punishment of death.

Spoiler

Miyamoto ditching Nintendo for a higher paycheck at Sony.

 

[AniHawk]

Since I'm new at this- is MGS that huge in Japan? I assume its big, but not FF/DQ massive?

It's bigger than Zelda, not as big as FFIII DS.

 

[PantherLotus]

Wait for DMC4 MGS4.

So you just learned the strike-through tag too, huh?

 

[Maximus]

Stupid Question, but does Wii Sports not come included with the Wii in Japan?

 

[schuelma]

Stupid Question, but does Wii Sports not come included with the Wii in Japan?

No it does not.

 

[PantherLotus]

Makes you wonder why Wii Sports isn't selling here in the states!!

 

[AniHawk]

So you just learned the strike-through tag too, huh?

Fun times ahead.

 

[PantherLotus]

Fun times ahead.

I know. I never even knew we could do it until earlier in this thread. It will be awesome for crossing shit off of lists.


PS3 Hopes for success
GTAIV exclusive
VF5 exclusive
DMC4 exclusive
MGS4
FFXIII

 

[Jasoncheng]

Dengeki-Ranking
http://www.dengekionline.com/soft/ranking.html

TOP50
NDS:38
Wii:6
PS2:4
PSP:1
PS3:1

 

[My Chemical Mouse]

DMC4 on 360 is going to have ZERO effect on the games sales on Ps3 in Japan, that should be obvious to everyone.

 

[PantherLotus]

DMC4 on 360 is going to have ZERO effect on the games sales on Ps3 in Japan, that should be obvious to everyone.

DMC4 will have no effect on Japan at all. Get it straight.

 

[sprsk]

For hardware charts maybe we should use code?

Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS -   121,630 | 108,631 | 1,719,595 | 15,725,274
2. WII -    67,070 | 44,495 | 915,139 | 1,834,782
3. PSP -    43,769 | 56,175 | 603,928 | 5,136,057
4. PS3 -    21,635 | 32,115 | 316,475 | 774,033
5. PS2 -    13,321 | 14,585 | 223,953 | 20,378,812
6. 360 -    2,910 | 3,333 | 71,632 | 336,334
7. GBA -    1,293 | 1,504 | 26,911 | 15,324,990
8. NGC -    367    | 240    | 5,039 | 4,174,507

 

[Cheesemeister]

Fun times ahead. GAF abuse of strikeout ahead.

 

[AniHawk]

Fun times ahead. GAF abuse of strikeout ahead.

I hate you You're a funny guy.

 

[PantherLotus]

I hate you You're a funny guy.

It's a new fad meme.

 

[Pureauthor]

I hate you You're a funny guy.

Nintendo Sony fanboys are the worst.

 

[Cheesemeister]

For hardware charts maybe we should use code?

That wouldn't be hard at all. The columns could line up and everything, using existing code for the graphic.

 

[PantherLotus]

Let's talk more about my awesome charts and graphs. I do it for the attention.

 

[Pureauthor]

Let's talk more about my awesome charts and graphs. I do it for the attention.

Lousy attention whore Nice work dude, keep it up.

 

[Cheesemeister]

Let's talk more about my awesome charts and graphs. I do it for the attention.

Me too! We have so much in common. :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

DMC4 on 360 is going to have ZERO effect on the games sales on Ps3 in Japan, that should be obvious to everyone.

As Panther said, DMC4 was never going to have any damn effect on sales in Japan even as an exclusive. Maybe a one-week spike at best, and that hasn't changed at all. I predict MGS4 to have a much bigger effect. Two week spike, for sure.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The Wii sold 3.10x the PS3 this week, and has 2.92x as many LTD.

That's off; I think you used only your post-holiday numbers for that calculation. 1834782/774033 = 2.37x.

Let's talk more about my awesome charts and graphs. I do it for the attention.

That's not a chart! THIS is a chart!

 

[NintendosBooger]

Nintendo is clearly fishing with dynamite here. This isn't even fair to Sony and Microsoft.

Nintendo, I know Sony punked you last generation, but there's no excuse for this type of revenge. Be the bigger man, Nintendo! You're destroying the competition with your ability to generate platinum titles out of thin air.