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[JoshuaJSlone]

Jesus, can I just get a chart which compares GameCube and Wii from launch week by week?

Piece of cake, milk. Through 52 weeks.

Noooo some of us are red/green colorblind!

I wonder if that was a problem for Pokémon early on?

 

[PantherLotus]

Piece of cake, milk. Through 52 weeks.


I wonder if that was a problem for Pokémon early on?

Interesting!

Since I'm being picky atm, I'll point out that hate how the Wii line just zeros out after unknown data points. Why can't it just stop? Do you have zeros instead of blanks in that column?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Interesting!

Since I'm being picky atm, I'll point out that hate how the Wii line just zeros out after unknown data points. Why can't it just stop? Do you have zeros instead of blanks in that column?

I originally made it so it cuts off when there's no data. Whenever it would be told to cut off the last 10 weeks, though, it would also always cut off the first 10 weeks. I couldn't figure out why, and haven't been able to get registered at the JpGraph forums to ask for assistance, so it's just been left at that state. I should try to tinker with it again, though; I agree it quite tarnishes the image.


EDIT: Ahaha, a new day brings a fresh perspective. I didn't find a solution to the problem I was having before, but by initializing the right array to be full of values JpGraph recognizes as null rather than 0, it now looks as it should.

 

[PantherLotus]

*I assumed you were using excel like a civilized human!*

(and yeah it does look much better)


So basically:
Week-to-week, the Wii hasn't lost to the GC yet. It will be around March when GC reaches its first Christmas season, which will probably be the first time the GC beats it. But this is only weekly sales.

I prefer weekly-LTD for comparison purposes unless one was lining up the data in the exact same week. (The Wii would start 8-9 weeks into the GC data?). Either way, we all know the Wii is doing (and will continue to do) much, much better than the GC ever did. It is not beyond expectations to see the Wii beat the GC's LTD in one year or less.

 

[LanceStern]

Can the Wii keep these consistently high sales for much longer?

What titles will sustain it's sales?

 

[AniHawk]

Can the Wii keep these consistently high sales for much longer?

What titles will sustain it's sales?

Wii Sports and Wii Play.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I prefer weekly-LTD for comparison purposes unless one was lining up the data in the exact same week. (The Wii would start 8-9 weeks into the GC data?)

GCN vs Wii
Weekly from launch (the one already posted)
LTD from launch

The way you mention can be had, too... I just need to bend the truth a bit and ask it to give me Wii data starting from September.
Weekly, times of year matched (There's one point where they appear to touch, but looking at the numbers Wii is ahead by several hundred.)
LTD, times of year matched


And as long as I'm posting those lines, I'll add these. Rather than needing to upload images when I'd want to reference weird creations in the future, I created a table for a Fake tracker where I can put things like THGCN or GCNSum.
Weekly from launch, Wii vs THGCN vs GCNSum
LTD from launch, Wii vs THGCN vs GCNSum

 

[haircut]

Then they don't have to participate or look at them.

Exactly, this is what banning ioi makes possible.

 

[Jonnyram]

Just an observation: raw data cannot be copyrighted, they are just facts.

Sales numbers are not raw data, though, they are estimates based on research by each company involved. If ioi had just used shipment numbers from publishers, there is no legal issue, but what he's doing is really dodgy. I'm surprised NPD hasn't come down on him yet, because there is literally no other source of sales data from the US so it's obvious where he's copying from.

I understand GAF's position, I'm not criticizing it, but please, people, understand that corporations should not control every single piece of information ever released.

Well the companies that do the work have a right to protect that work. I think that's a fair assumption in a non-communist society

 

[PantherLotus]

Excellent work joshua. I found this one most relevant. It's LTDs, time of the year matched up. The Wii is literally 13 weeks ahead (3+ months), and that doesn't even include the 3 month head start that the GC had!!

 

[Earthstrike]

Excellent work joshua. I found this one most relevant. It's LTDs, time of the year matched up. The Wii is literally 13 weeks ahead (3+ months), and that doesn't even include the 3 month head start that the GC had!!

Actually, it does include that. If it didn't include that the Wii line would be translated to the left and the difference would be about 35 weeks.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Excellent work joshua. I found this one most relevant. It's LTDs, time of the year matched up. The Wii is literally 13 weeks ahead (3+ months), and that doesn't even include the 3 month head start that the GC had!!

Yeah, going by that chart, Wii the week of January 15th matches up with GCN the week of April 8, 2002, and that's the week-behind Famitsu number. Considering the new Media Create number, that would bring it up to about where GCN was the week of June 11, 2002. GCN's mid-year weeks being so slow, each of these big weeks can pass months "GCN time".


If you guys want to try your own line variants, you can try it out here. It's pretty barren, but here's the lowdown:

Weeks: obvious
Radio button choice: pretty obvious
System: Usually the common 3-letter short form of a system name, though Xbox and X360 are exceptions.
Date: The Monday of the week you want that system to be tracked from, in YYYY-MM-DD format. I've got a list of commonly-used weeks with things like year beginnings and system launches.
Group: Usually leave blank. If you put in Manufacturer you can then track something like Sony rather than PS2 in the earlier System spot.
Tracker: mc for Media Create (it's the default if you leave it blank) or fam for Famitsu. If you want data from before 2003 you'll have to go with Famitsu, which goes back to the beginning of 2000.

There are a few more possibilities, but if I want to make it totally complete, page 50 of the weekly Media Create thread is hardly the place to hide it.

 

[youta]

Sales numbers are not raw data, though, they are estimates based on research by each company involved.

The gravitational constant is estimated to be 6.6742x10^-11 Nm^2/kg^2.
It is the product of over two hundred years of research. For all that
it's still a fact, and it is not copyrightable. No matter what NPD says,
the number of consoles sold in a month is not something you can
copyright. That GAF wishes to avoid confrontation is understandable,
but that doesn't mean the copyright argument is valid.

Well the companies that do the work have a right to protect that work. I think that's a fair assumption in a non-communist society

Sure, but the only way to "protect" this kind of data is secrecy, i.e.
a trade secret which generates revenue by being sold to select parties
under a NDA. If one of said parties leaks that information it becomes
fair game, but then the company can sue for violation of the NDA terms
(but only the party bound by the agreement).

 

[antipode]

Sure, but the only way to "protect" this kind of data is secrecy, i.e.
a trade secret which generates revenue by being sold to select parties
under a NDA. If one of said parties leaks that information it becomes
fair game, but then the company can sue for violation of the NDA terms
(but only the party bound by the agreement).

Not in the United States - if you know that a trade secret was leaked illegally and you spread the information the company can take legal action. And despite your argument about 'factual information', survey data is considered a trade secret under the USTA:

"Information, including a formula, pattern, compilation, program, device, method, technique, or process, that is both of the following:

(i) Derives independent economic value, actual or potential, from not being generally known to, and not being readily ascertainable by proper means by, other persons who can obtain economic value from its disclosure or use.

(ii) Is the subject of efforts that are reasonable under the circumstances to maintain its secrecy.

The courts have recognized customer lists and information, costs, internal weaknesses, marketing and strategic plans, diagrams, survey data, prices and similar information as satisfying these criteria."

 

[Jonnyram]

The gravitational constant is estimated to be 6.6742x10^-11 Nm^2/kg^2.
It is the product of over two hundred years of research. For all that it's still a fact, and it is not copyrightable. No matter what NPD says, the number of consoles sold in a month is not something you can copyright. That GAF wishes to avoid confrontation is understandable, but that doesn't mean the copyright argument is valid.

The number of consoles sold each month is not a fact. Yes, there is a fact out there somewhere, but noone knows it. If you knew the actual number of consoles released in a month, exactly, that would be fact. What NPD publishes is not fact. It is an extrapolated figure based on research. It is nothing like the gravitational constant at all. If you have an issue with this, you'd probably be best taking it up with NPD, since you're obviously not going to listen to someone on a forum.

 

[Cheesemeister]

The number of consoles sold each month is not a fact. Yes, there is a fact out there somewhere, but noone knows it.

You'd think this number would be completely ascertainable in this day and age.

 

[lawnjam]

You'd think this number would be completely ascertainable in this day and age.

Once they have RFIDs in everything SKYNET will know. It's not going to tell you puny humans, though. MWAHAHAHA

 

[youta]

Not in the United States - if you know that a trade secret was leaked illegally and you spread the information the company can take legal action.

I don't know how the GAF numbers were obtained originally.
Just because NPD didn't like it doesn't mean it was illegally.
Did they disclose them voluntarily? Was there a NDA involved?
Maybe yes, maybe no, I don't know, actually. The original
argument, I believe, was that they were protected by copyright,
that's what I don't agree with.

And despite your argument about 'factual information', survey data is considered a trade secret under the USTA:

Um, that's what I said. That sort of information would be protected
as a trade secret, but not by copyright law. I've given up of trying
to make Jonnyram understand this, but you just posted the USTA
definition.

In any case an argument as to the legality of distributing
those numbers can be made either way, but it's not a battle
worth fighting.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't know how the GAF numbers were obtained originally.
Just because NPD didn't like it doesn't mean it was illegally.
Did they disclose them voluntarily? Was there a NDA involved?
Maybe yes, maybe no, I don't know, actually. The original
argument, I believe, was that they were protected by copyright,
that's what I don't agree with.

Here's the thing, it really isn't important who is right or who is wrong. There's no conceivable way that you or I or GAF would be able to sustain a lawsuit from a major company.

So the real question is, does NPD have a prima facie case for their information being a trade secret? The answer to this is yes, and it's an even more resounding yes when you consider that most judges, even IP judges, do not have the statistical background to really be aware of how these numbers are calculated or spread, and there is generally a decent amount of deference towards full trials when it comes to technical issues.

Also, you're not limited to 80 column width. Please don't insert linebreaks. It makes your posts very jarring when compared to the other ones and very hard to read.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

I just saw the first Blue Dragon h-doujin on the web today. As weird and amusing as that is, the fact that it exists is proof that the 360 is making inroads into the Japanese market.

 

[youta]

Here's the thing, it really isn't important who is right or who is wrong. There's no conceivable way that you or I or GAF would be able to sustain a lawsuit from a major company.

I agree. It's sad, but I agree.

 

[Trident]

You can protect them by copyright if the numbers aren't exactly true, but are approximations based on their original methodology.

(which they are)

 

[cvxfreak]

I don't know how the GAF numbers were obtained originally.
Just because NPD didn't like it doesn't mean it was illegally.
Did they disclose them voluntarily? Was there a NDA involved?
Maybe yes, maybe no, I don't know, actually. The original
argument, I believe, was that they were protected by copyright,
that's what I don't agree with.

Only those who pay the tens of thousands of dollars for a subscription to the NPD are allowed to view the data. NPD data comes on spreadsheets in a special order with special abbreviations/codes for game names. That methodology is copyright.

Um, that's what I said. That sort of information would be protected
as a trade secret, but not by copyright law. I've given up of trying
to make Jonnyram understand this, but you just posted the USTA
definition.

In any case an argument as to the legality of distributing
those numbers can be made either way, but it's not a battle
worth fighting.

It's illegal to do so. Videogame sales numbers are not in the public domain. No one is entitled to knowing elaborate videogame sales for free. The NPD is not a charity, it is a business. This goes for CESA as well, which says that its data cannot be reproduced, by the way.

 

[P90]

Sales numbers are not raw data, though, they are estimates based on research by each company involved.

Exactly. ioi's #s or Square's or <insert number cruncher> have as much credibility as MC and other sources. They are all just kinda sorta algore math #s.

 

[P90]

You'd think this number would be completely ascertainable in this day and age.

Human error alone would rule this out. Not to mention monitoring sales is an indirect "minor" invasion of the consumer's privacy.

 

[cvxfreak]

Exactly. ioi's #s or Square's or <insert number cruncher> have as much credibility as MC and other sources. They are all just kinda sorta algore math #s.

I wouldn't go that far. MC/Famitsu/Dengeki/NPD are at least somewhat verifiable and the videogame companies actually trust them.

 

[haircut]

Exactly. ioi's #s or Square's or <insert number cruncher> have as much credibility as MC and other sources. They are all just kinda sorta algore math #s.

Is this a word, and if so what does it mean?

 

[LordMaji]

Question:

For those saying the information is copyrighted and thus can't be freely distributed without consent of NPD, how is this any different than information from gallop polls or any other printed and distributed information being posted on here?

Why are we allowed to have MC #s?

Why are we allowed to post print magazine reviews?

If a company bound by an NDA leaks information about a system or a game that gets leaked to the internet - why is it allowed to be posted here?

Why is it that these rules only seem to apply to NPD?

 

[P90]

Is this a word, and if so what does it mean?

Not American? Clue: It is the guy who invented the internet.

 

[haircut]

Not American? Clue: It is the guy who invented the internet.

I thought it might be a word related to algorithms, since you were talking about math and, frankly, "algore" sounds like one of those words they'd make you select an antonym for in the GRE.

 

[fallout]

IANAL, so I dunno how correct this is ...

Question:

For those saying the information is copyrighted and thus can't be freely distributed without consent of NPD, how is this any different than information from gallop polls or any other printed and distributed information being posted on here?

I think it has something to do with it being publicly available. It's a mildly grey area, but you can't go anywhere and just legally find the NPD numbers on a website somewhere. You can, however, go to the MC numbers site and find them. You can go somewhere and pull up the gallop polls. The miscellaneous NPD numbers that we do get (posted on 1Up, GameSpot, IGN, etc.) can be reposted here without a problem because NPD makes those available.

Why are we allowed to have MC #s?

See above.

Why are we allowed to post print magazine reviews?

I didn't realize that we were.

If a company bound by an NDA leaks information about a system or a game that gets leaked to the internet - why is it allowed to be posted here?

That I'm not sure about!

Why is it that these rules only seem to apply to NPD?

I don't think you're talking about the same rules.

 

[youta]

Folks, I'm not about to pick a fight over this, to each his own.
The way I see it the IP issues involved are similar to the ones
that arise in stock exchange data (i.e. can share values be
copyrighted?), and that can of worms has been open for decades:
http://www.futuresindustry.org/fimagazi-1929.asp?a=831&iss=133

 

[Trident]

Folks, I'm not about to pick a fight over this, to each his own.
The way I see it the IP issues involved are similar to the ones
that arise in stock exchange data (i.e. can share values be
copyrighted?), and that can of worms has been open for decades:
http://www.futuresindustry.org/fimagazi-1929.asp?a=831&iss=133

The key difference here is that NPD numbers are not facts about the world. They're approximations based on NPD's investigations and algorithms. They could use other stores for their base sales, and they could use other algorithms for their approximations. That easily falls within the creative requirement for American copyright law.

 

[fallout]

The key difference here is that NPD numbers are not facts about the world. They're approximations based on NPD's investigations and algorithms. They could use other stores for their base sales, and they could use other algorithms for their approximations. That easily falls within the creative requirement for American copyright law.

That's a really good point, thanks.

I hope at some point they release full blown old sales data in an archive somewhere. I'd eat that shit up.

 

[duderon]

What we really need is a company to compete with NPD, so they'll start to release more numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if a gaffer could come up with a more accurate way of estimating sales.

 

[Stumpokapow]

What we really need is a company to compete with NPD, so they'll start to release more numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if a gaffer could come up with a more accurate way of estimating sales.

hahahaha no

Armchair statisticians whose statistical experience includes "Intro to Stats for Business Students" and "Experimental Design for Fine Arts Students" are generally not considered to be more reliable than teams of professional statisticians.

 

[P90]

I thought it might be a word related to algorithms, since you were talking about math and, frankly, "algore" sounds like one of those words they'd make you select an antonym for in the GRE.

Nah, you are too smart math-wise for me! Just some creative math used by a politician. Others do it as well, but Mr. Gore was caught red handed.

 

[ethelred]

Bad enough we've got bickering over vgcharts. Can we keep politics out of Media Create, please?

 

[creamsugar]

Famitsu TOP 5 of Wii & PS3 Games (Till Jan 28)

Wii:
1.Wii Sports - 908,457
2.Wii Play - 786,943
3.The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 381,968
4.WarioWare Smooth Moves - 307,146
5.Pokemon Battle Revolution - 193,270

PS3
1.Ridge Racer 7 - 124,463
2.Gundam: Target in Sight - 121,733
3.Resistance: Fall of Man - 101,667
4.Armored Core 4 - 72,595
5.Genji: Days of the Blade - 48,869

 

[bud]

what are the big wii releases this week?

 

[Heidir]

Last Week.
DS 180k
Wii 80k
Wii Sports ~1.000.000
Wii Play ~800k
Zelda ~400k

 

[KINGMOKU]

Last Week.
DS 180k
Wii 80k
Wii Sports ~1.000.000
Wii Play ~800k
Zelda ~400k

Wii gets its first Million seller in a little over a month, while the gamecube had one its entire lifetime.

Unreal.

 

[DefectiveReject]

Last Week.
DS 180k
Wii 80k
Wii Sports ~1.000.000
Wii Play ~800k
Zelda ~400k

 

[Magicpaint]

Last Week.
DS 180k
Wii 80k
Wii Sports ~1.000.000
Wii Play ~800k
Zelda ~400k

Where do these numbers come from?

 

[bloke]

Where do these numbers come from?

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10025123495.html

DS ~180k
Wii ~80k
PSP ~30k
PS3 ~20k
360 ~5k

ed.
1. J-League Soccer 5 (PS2) ~100k
2. Harvest Moon (NDS) ~70k
3. GTA San Andreas (PS2) ~60k

 

[ziran]

Famitsu Top 10 Jan 29-Feb 4:
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/2007/02/07/103,1170827369,66768,0,0.html

1. J-League Soccer 5 (PS2)
2. Harvest Moon (NDS)
3. GTA San Andreas (PS2)
4. Dragon Quest Monsters (NDS)
5. Wii Sports (Wii)
6. Pokémon Diamond/Pearl (NDS)
7. Wii Play (Wii)
8. More Brain Training (NDS)
9. NSMB (NDS)
10. Common Sense Training (NDS)

 

[Mrbob]

Resistance sold over 100K in Japan?

Crazy.

Hopefully Zelda can get over 500K in Japan. :/

 

[Magicpaint]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10025123495.html

DS ~180k
Wii ~80k
PSP ~30k
PS3 ~20k
360 ~5k

ed.
1. J-League Soccer 5 (PS2) ~100k
2. Harvest Moon (NDS) ~70k
3. GTA San Andreas (PS2) ~60k

Thanks for confirming the source. They seem to be quite accurate.

Famitsu Top 10 Jan 29-Feb 4:
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/2007/02/07/103,1170827369,66768,0,0.html

1. J-League Soccer 5 (PS2)
2. Harvest Moon (NDS)
3. GTA San Andreas (PS2)
4. Dragon Quest Monsters (NDS)
5. Wii Sports (Wii)
6. Pokémon Diamond/Pearl (NDS)
7. Wii Play (Wii)
8. More Brain Training (NDS)
9. NSMB (NDS)
10. Common Sense Training (NDS)

If DQM is that high, then maybe they shipped more than 100K last week?

 

[BuzzJive]

Resistance sold over 100K in Japan?

Crazy.

Hopefully Zelda can get over 500K in Japan. :/

Resistance is at about a 20% attach rate - which is really good. And Zelda is up over a 25% attach rate. If Wii sales stay with the current trend (4 or 5 weeks in a row now of ~80k?), Zelda will hit 500k in 5 weeks.

 

[sphinx]

Resistance is at about a 20% attach rate - which is really good. And Zelda is up over a 25% attach rate. If Wii sales stay with the current trend (4 or 5 weeks in a row now of ~80k?), Zelda will hit 500k in 5 weeks.

seems like zelda will join Mario 64 DS and Final fantasy III as one of the games to take the longest to reach a million in japan ( if it'll ever do )

Nintendo is as healthy as ever.

in the SD vs HD gaming camp, we have 2 teams: PS2/WII against PS3/360 I wonder if the HD team will ver stand a chance against the SD one.