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[koam]

You really think Super Paper Mario and Twilight Princess won't even be in the top 100 in November?

Also, what would be more fun is to say which games are going to be in the top ten.

I only posted the first occurance for the wii/ps3/gc/xbx.. i forgot about the psp

 

[mj1108]

Can you make that pie chart yellow for the DS by default?

I second this. And we need an eye on it too. From here on out, we need PacChart's every week.

And if someone could animate one, that would rock even more.

 

[Tadaima]

 

[Magicpaint]

Ha ha ha, cool. But no NES?

 

[Tadaima]

Ha ha ha, cool. But no NES?

E&N has no NES figures

http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/japtotals.php?name=mario&maker=&console=

 

[koam]

why is there an nes sprite for the gba?

edit: n/m famicom mini

 

[CajoleJuice]

why is there an nes sprite for the gba?

I think that might be for that re-release of the original NES SMB. Not sure though.

 

[Drakken]

Anyone who wants these kind of lists every week?

Software sales comparision against last week:

01. NDS NSMB - 244,882

89,326 (26,73%)
02. PS2 Hisshou Pachinko ... V.5 EVA - 100,967 (NEW)
03. NDS Brain Age 2 - 52,876

3,594 (6,36%)
04. PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 - 34,880

3,280 (10,38%)
05. NDS Brain Age - 34,760

5,451 (13,55%)
06. NDS Animal Crossing - 25,355

3,197 (11,20%)
07. NDS English Training - 23,130

2,867 (11,03%)
08. NDS Tetris DS - 21,710

7499 (25,67%)
09. NDS Mario Kart DS - 11,880

870 (6,82%)*
10. NDS Pokémon Ranger - 11,646

854 (6,83%)*

* MK DS and Pokémon Ranger last week figures taken from Everything and Nothing.

Hardware sales comparision against last week (unconfirmed):

DSL - 132,027

3,587 (2,65%)
PSP - 21,656

2,939 (11,95%)
PS2 - 18,981

468 (2,53%)
GBASP - 4,116

248 (5,68%)
GBM - 1,654

384 (30,24%)
DS - 1,371

212 (18,29%)
Xbox360 - 1,100

145 (11,65%)
GC - 961

163 (20,43%)
Xbox - N/A ? 43
GBA - N/A ? 30

Ooh, I would. That's pretty cool actually.

 

[starship]

Impressive domination by DS.
It has:
Three +2m sellers (AC WW, BT 2, BT)
Three +1m sellers (NSMB, MK DS, ET)
Two +500k sellers (Tetris, PR)
in the top ten.
Wow, just wow.

This type of domination in both software and hardware fronts is incredible and never happened before.

Also its great to see CoM still hanging there. It can easily break 300k, maybe even 350k.
FF III will be another million seller, no doubt about it.

 

[Rock_Man]

 

[sprsk]

lets get a pacman chart for top 30 software sales.

 

[Jiggy]

This is one of the coolest things I've ever seen. Kudos.

 

[gconsole]

Impressive domination by DS.
It has:
Four +1m games (NSMB, MK DS, ET, Tamagotchi)

fixed

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

GBASP after 15 weeks: 1.05M
DSL after 15 weeks: 2.19M
Time for GBASP to reach 2.19M: ~45 weeks

"GBA after SP" after 15 weeks: 273K
"DS after DSL" after 15 weeks: 419K
Time for "GBA after SP" to reach 419K: ~28K

DS after 15 weeks: 1.90M
PSP after 15 weeks: 1.06M

----------------
So here's an interesting milestone. If you'll recall, I've kept tracks of weeks ownership for DS and PSP. That is, how many system-weeks each system has been owned. Interesting to use together with tie ratios.

ANYWAY, since in the beginning DS had the big supply advantage, it initially was very ahead of PSP in how long it had been owned. Even when DS began outselling PSP again, it wasn't by double or anything, so PSP continued to catch up and eventually hit half of DS's weeks ownership the week of June 13, 2005. At the time, that was 52.6 million system-weeks for DS and 26.3 milliion system-weeks for PSP.

Since DS began outselling PSP by so much late last year, though, the trend has been going in the other direction. And this week for the first time in nearly a year, DS has more than twice as many person-weeks as PSP. Now that's 303.9 million for DS, and 151.3 million for PSP.


---------------

Can you make that pie chart yellow for the DS by default?

I second this. And we need an eye on it too. From here on out, we need PacChart's every week.

The thing is, it seems a bit short term. Eventually DS Lite won't sell quite that percentage, or we'll just get sick of it, or Wii makes a chart that looks similar for a week, or whatever. So I don't want to make "Pac-Man Yellow" be the permanent color for DS Lite, or be changing them if I can help it. HOWEVER, I might be able to wrangle something in.

Possibility 1: I've been toying with things other than date that could be modified through changes to the URL, like size and grouping by manufacturer. I could make it so adding in something like "?pac=dsl" would make DS Lite the Pac-Man. The minus is that GAF automatically displays any image with a question mark in it as a link rather than displaying it.

Possibility 2: Make a separate PacChart PHP file that would detect if any system (or manufacturer, or whatever) had greater than 50% for a week, and assign yellow to it.

As for a Pac-Man Eye... I could probably do it, but it'd be a total pain in the eye. The advantage of using something like JpGraph is that most of the work is already done, it's just a matter of customizing it and inputting the data. But to get a decent eye it seems like I'd have to program in half of the stuff necessary for a pie chart in the first place. Using the radius , starting location, and individual values, determine where the Pac-Lips are, then further determine from that what location, size, and angle the Pac-Eye should use. @_@ There are much more interesting things I could do with that time and effort instead.

 

[starship]

fixed

I'm talking about top ten only

 

[JonathanEx]

I'll be doing my 3D Pac-Chart every week.

Unconfirmed hardware for Jun6-Jun11:

 

[Jeff-DSA]

I'll be doing my 3D Pac-Chart every week.

Unconfirmed hardware for Jun6-Jun11:

That is so awesome. Imagine the super pellet that Pokemon Diamond and Pearl is going to be...

 

[A Link to the Past]

The number of million sellers on the DS is pretty astounding.

Tamagotchi
Mario Kart DS
New SMB
Nintendogs
English Training
Gentle Brain Exercises
Brain Training
Brain Training 2
Animal Crossing WW

And WWT and SM64DS are getting close.

 

[LanceStern]

English Training
Gentle Brain Exercises
Brain Training
Brain Training 2

Why couldn't those be:

Children of Mana
Kirby Canvas Curse
Advance Wars Dual Strike
Castlevania Dawn of Sorrow

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't see a way to change the color of the guidelines, so they're pretty disguised. Since it's a supplementary novelty chart, though, perhaps the numbers should just be ditched and the sides should be brought in?

Sony Pac-Man

Why couldn't those be:

Children of Mana
Kirby Canvas Curse
Advance Wars Dual Strike
Castlevania Dawn of Sorrow

Because they're not $20 games with broad appeal and little similar competition.

 

[medrew]

s.

ANYWAY, since in the beginning DS had the big supply advantage, it initially was very ahead of PSP in how long it had been owned. Even when DS began outselling PSP again, it wasn't by double or anything, so PSP continued to catch up and eventually hit half of DS's weeks ownership the week of June 13, 2005. At the time, that was 52.6 million system-weeks for DS and 26.3 milliion system-weeks for PSP.

Since DS began outselling PSP by so much late last year, though, the trend has been going in the other direction. And this week for the first time in nearly a year, DS has more than twice as many person-weeks as PSP. Now that's 303.9 million for DS, and 151.3 million for PSP.

Now I might be missing the obvious here, but I have no idea what those million numbers mean.

 

[marvelharvey]

I went to Kobe the other day and while I was out shopping, found a couple of game shops that only stocked PS2 and PSP hardware/software (and they had a small corner for PC edutainment).

Sucks to be them.

 

[cvxfreak]

I went to Kobe the other day and while I was out shopping, found a couple of game shops that only stocked PS2 and PSP hardware/software (and they had a small corner for PC edutainment).

Sucks to be them.

:lol :lol Suckers.

 

[Emotions]

I went to Kobe the other day and while I was out shopping, found a couple of game shops that only stocked PS2 and PSP hardware/software (and they had a small corner for PC edutainment).

Sucks to be them.

Moneyhats.

 

[thorns]

Brain Training 2 passes FF XII for 2006, not to mention the 450k sold in 2005!

http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/japyearly.php?year=2006

1 Brain Training 2 DS Nintendo 2,276,500 2,735,000
2 Final Fantasy XII PS2 Square 2,275,500 2,275,500
3 Animal Crossing: Wild World DS Nintendo 1,590,750 3,060,750
4 New Super Mario Bros DS Nintendo 1,546,000 1,546,000
5 Brain Training DS Nintendo 1,304,750 2,584,250
6 English Training DS Nintendo 1,184,500 1,184,500
7 World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 PS2 Konami 816,750 816,750
8 Tetris DS DS Nintendo 668,750 668,750
9 Mario Kart DS DS Nintendo 638,750 1,512,750
10 Pokemon Rangers DS Nintendo 592,750 592,750
11 Samaurai Warriors 2 PS2 Koei 556,750 556,750
12 Monster Hunter 2 PS2 Capcom 555,500 555,500
13 Dirge of Cerberus: Final Fantasy VII PS2 Square 492,250 492,250
14 Monster Hunter Portable PSP Capcom 375,750 664,250
15 Mother 3 GBA Nintendo 368,750 368,750
16 Shin Onimusha: Dawn of Dreams PS2 Capcom 333,250 333,250
17 Brain Flex DS Nintendo 316,500 1,262,250
18 Mario + Luigi 2: Partners In Time DS Nintendo 293,750 440,000
19 Tamogotchi Connection: Corner Shop! DS Bandai 284,750 1,103,500
20 Nintendogs DS Nintendo 274,500 1,321,500
21 Seiken Densetsu DS: Children Of Mana DS Square 271,750 271,750
22 Dragon Quest Yangus PS2 Enix 269,500 269,500
23 Gundam Clamix U.C. PS2 Bandai 231,250 231,250
24 Daredemo Asobi Taizen DS Nintendo 228,000 596,250
25 Lets Make a J-League Pro Soccer Club European Cham PS2 Sega 218,250 218,250
26 Kingdom Hearts II PS2 Square 201,750 1,161,500
27 Ace Combat Zero PS2 Namco 190,750 190,750
28 Powerful Pro Major League PS2 Konami 188,000 188,000
29 Super Mario Strikers GC Nintendo 185,250 185,250
30 Suikoden V PS2 Konami 182,500 182,500

why are your totals different from media crate's??

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Now I might be missing the obvious here, but I have no idea what those million numbers mean.

OK, I'll try and explain better. Essentially, it's a sum of the time since each individual system has been sold. 468,883 DS systems were sold on its launch week 79 weeks ago, so as a group those people account for 37,041,757 weeks of DS ownership.

The reason I think this is a useful number is that just looking at a tie ratio can be deceiving when there are quick changes to a system's userbase. To make a crazy example, let's say system A and B have both sold 2 million units, and each have a quite healthy tie ratio of 10 games apiece.
Current status
A: 2 million systems, 20 million games, tie ratio of 10
B: 2 million systems, 20 million games, tie ratio of 10

For some reason system A becomes very popular, and over the next month sells 1 million units compared to only 100,000 for system B. Each new and old system owner purchases 1 game.

Current status
A: 3 million systems, 23 million games, tie ratio of 7.7
B: 2.1 million systems, 22.1 million games, tie ratio of 10.5

Just looking at tie ratios, you'd think system B's owners buy more games, when the truth is just that the average owner of system B has had their system longer than the average owner of system A.

In the specific case of DS and PSP, the average DS owner has had their system 34.9 weeks, while the average PSP owner has had their system 42.9 weeks, so all things equal it would be unsurprising for PSP to have a slightly higher tie ratio.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

why are your totals different from media crate's??

ioi is like a meta-tracking service. While the different tracking services use what sales they know and whatever methods they have to extrapolate a result (which doesn't quite match with the others), ioi looks at the numbers from individual trackers and company announcements and tries to extrapolate his own approximation of the reality.

 

[marvelharvey]

tries to extrapolate his own approximation of reality

That would make an awesome tag!

 

[DarkMehm]

ioi your worldwide Tie-Ratios aren't up-to-date. You have updated the Hard & Software but forgot the Ratios.

 

[ioi]

ioi your worldwide Tie-Ratios aren't up-to-date. You have updated the Hard & Software but forgot the Ratios.

You're right, I have been lazy!!

Will do at some point

 

[topscouse]

21 Seiken Densetsu DS: Children Of Mana DS Square 271,750 271,750

Its good to see Children of Mana doing so well. I remember when it was first released and people were saying that it would not go past 100K.

 

[ioi]

Its good to see Children of Mana doing so well. I remember when it was first released and people were saying that it would not go past 100K.

it did 100k first week :lol

but yeah it has shown good legs...

 

[Frankfurter]

If HW numbers are true, it's another crazy week.

Seriously, are there STILL shortages in Japan after all these weeks?

 

[ioi]

If HW numbers are true, it's another crazy week.

Seriously, are there STILL shortages in Japan after all these weeks?

I'm upping my estimate for LTD to end of Dec to 12.5m from 12m previously

 

[soundwave05]

I think Nintendo is probably starting to strain under the pressure of trying to supply Japan and now the North America/Euro launches as well, where demand will obviously be high early on.

That's probably why there's fewer DS Lite's being shipped into Japan for the time being ... because they need systems for the Western launches.

They definitely will need at least 400,000 DS Lite's for North America alone this month, so something's gotta give.

 

[MrSardonic]

I recently got to play an import copy (a friend's brother is a DS fan) and it was pretty cool and fun. It was the first game I've seen the girls not throw a look of pity towards whoever was playing a videogame in their presence. They were actually the ones playing it all afternoon while the football was on. I think I will get this game, especially at the lower price point.

The strange thing is that I find these new types of DS games (especially the cheaper ones) are more likely to get my money that others. Sure I will buy NSMB but these days I won't buy a game unless it is the best of a genre or promises me long-term entertainment. The entire life of the GC I've only had 13 games for the machine and I only bought 8 of those myself.

It's not funny anymore.

It was funny once?

 

[Frankfurter]

I'm upping my estimate for LTD to end of Dec to 12.5m from 12m previously

I'm still a bit on the 'lower' side with an LTD of ~11.5m till the end of the year (that would still be 6 million DS sold in a year in Japan!). Mostly because I just think that this whole craziness has to end sooner or later.

I think Nintendo is probably starting to strain under the pressure of trying to supply Japan and now the North America/Euro launches as well, where demand will obviously be high early on.

That's probably why there's fewer DS Lite's being shipped into Japan for the time being ... because they need systems for the Western launches.

They definitely will need at least 400,000 DS Lite's for North America alone this month, so something's gotta give.

I think they won't have supply problems anymore in one or two months when the 2m/month systems hit the stores. They just can't possibly sell even remotely close to 2m systems till atleast October (June could come relatively close though with all the DSL launches).

 

[ioi]

I'm still a bit on the 'lower' side with an LTD of ~11.5m till the end of the year (that would still be 6 million DS sold in a year in Japan!). Mostly because I just think that this whole craziness has to end sooner or later.

I would be inclined to agree, but by the end of June (3 more weeks) the LTD should be well over 9m. So another 3.5m for the rest of the year (don't forget we could see 1.5-2m in Dec alone if we reach the giddy heights of last year) is a definite possiblity, maybe even more. I can't see the DS dropping past 100k for a while with some strong releases in July / Aug and then into Pokemon etc. I think 11.5m is a very very low end estimate.

 

[Grampasso]

I would be inclined to agree, but by the end of June (3 more weeks) the LTD should be well over 9m. So another 3.5m for the rest of the year (don't forget we could see 1.5-2m in Dec alone if we reach the giddy heights of last year) is a definite possiblity, maybe even more. I can't see the DS dropping past 100k for a while with some strong releases in July / Aug and then into Pokemon etc. I think 11.5m is a very very low end estimate.

QFT

 

[starship]

I'm upping my estimate for LTD to end of Dec to 12.5m from 12m previously

Its great to see this, but I think your estimate is still too low. I'm thinking of over 13.5m or even maybe 14m units by the end of the year.
By the end of June DS sales will be at 9m, add at least another million for July and August and the LTD should be well over 10m units. September and October should be huge with the debut of Pokemon D/P and its safe to say DS sales will be at least 1.5m units during those 2 months (if Nintendo can supply enough units, I think it will end up a lot more, something like 2m), so the LTD sales will be at +11.5m units by the end of October. Again its safe to say DS will do at least another couple millions during November and December (in 2005 it did more than 2m during November and December) and the LTD would be like +13.5m units by the end of the year.

Also these are from more than 2 months ago:

Well you can bookmark this thread if you want, but when I said AC would do 3m people laughed to start with but I think basically 3.5m is a cert now, high 3m is probably a safe guess, 4m++ about a 50/50 chance.


I'm calling it here guys- by December 31st 2006:

Animal Crossing- 3.6m
Brain Training 2- 3.1m
Brain Training- 2.9m
Mario Kart DS- 1.7m
English Training- 1.6m
Nintendogs- 1.5m
Brain Flex- 1.5m
Tamogotchi- 1.3m
Wario Ware- 1.2m
Super Mario 64 DS- 1.1m

DS Hardware- 11.1m

Tetris DS- 1.3m
New Super Mario Bros- 1.9m
Pokemon D/P (assuming Nov launch)- 3.8m


**puts the popcorn in the microwave for 9 months time**

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3081649&postcount=485

And mine:

I think DS hardware sales will be at least 1m more than that by the end of the year.
8.5m LTD by the end of May, at least 1.5m during next 5 months (June-October), and at least 2m during November and December.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3081680&postcount=488

 

[jamesinclair]

23. NDS Right Brain Training: Point Blank Trainer



Ok, so this is not honestly a long running GAF joke? This is the real name? No Im serious, I want a real answer.

Id just assumed that this was just a bit of fun added by GAF posters.

 

[starship]

23. NDS Right Brain Training: Point Blank Trainer



Ok, so this is not honestly a long running GAF joke? This is the real name? No Im serious, I want a real answer.

Id just assumed that this was just a bit of fun added by GAF posters.

Its the real name.

 

[Tadaima]

23. NDS Right Brain Training: Point Blank Trainer



Ok, so this is not honestly a long running GAF joke? This is the real name? No Im serious, I want a real answer.

Id just assumed that this was just a bit of fun added by GAF posters.

It's not a joke, they actually named it that.

 

[Jiggy]

Why couldn't those be:

Children of Mana
Kirby Canvas Curse
Advance Wars Dual Strike
Castlevania Dawn of Sorrow

CoM's apparently a dungeon crawler, Kirby CC is a gimmick that's fun once and then drops straight off (unlike the usual Kirby games which have more or less infinite replay value), and Castlevania doesn't sell in Japan for whatever reason.

Advance Wars I'll give you, though. That thing deserves to be a multimillion seller, in each region, independently. If for no other reason than to get Sami/Domino in Smash Bros.

 

[neo2046]

cool!

 

[yayaba]

Super Mario Land sold that much? Wow.

 

[KINGMOKU]

I really wonder where NSMB is going to end up. I'm guessing that it hits second place eventually, but it'll be close.


To beat the GB game it would have to have about 3more weeks of 200,000+ sales, or more.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

There are definitely major ugliness issues, but these line charts allows for interesting comparisons I thought some of you might want to play with. You can see the general format of the URL variations below; here are general descriptions.
date1= Beginning date on chart for first system
group1= Left out, it defaults to the individual system. However, you could instead choose "HardwareFamily" for adding together the different models of DS and GBA, "Manufacturer" for summing things up by company, or "SystemType" if you want it split by console/portable. This settings works on the pie and bar charts as well, though it's just group instead of group1 there.
system1= Usually system name, but if you're using one of the special options in group1, you might put something like "Microsoft" or "portable" here instead

For each of those there is a 2 variant for the one it's being compared to. If date2 should be the same as date1, you don't have to put it in.

weeks= How far the comparison goes. It defaults to 52 weeks.

DS+DSL 2006 versus DS 2005
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...em2=ds&date2=2006-01-02&group2=hardwarefamily

DS+DSL versus PSP, starting DS launch week.
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...e2=2004-11-29&group1=hardwarefamily&weeks=104

Consoles versus portables, 2003 through present
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...&group2=systemtype&date1=2002-12-30&weeks=128

testcomparesumline1.php and testcompareline1.php are both valid, the sum version just keeps summing up from week to week while the non-sum one doesn't.

DS+DSL 2006 versus DS 2005, week to week
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...em2=ds&date2=2006-01-02&group2=hardwarefamily

DS+DSL versus PSP, starting DS launch week, week to week
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...e2=2004-11-29&group1=hardwarefamily&weeks=104

Consoles versus portables, 2003 through present, week to week
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...&group2=systemtype&date1=2002-12-30&weeks=128

 

[Doogdogg]

I really wonder where NSMB is going to end up. I'm guessing that it hits second place eventually, but it'll be close.


To beat the GB game it would have to have about 3more weeks of 200,000+ sales, or more.

I think it'll end up 2.5-3 million. It has another 1-1.5m to go before all is said and done.

 

[cvxfreak]

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/top30/2006/06/15/120,1150351936,54975,0,0.html