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They really should. The announcement of Squeak Squad or whatever, instead of Canvas Curse 2 is still such an annoying and disappointing thing.

After how SS and KSSU sold and the fact that the DS doesnt need to prove the touch screen viable anymore, I think CC2 will come out in about never.

 

[donny2112]

Is it bs to expect the highest selling console to have the highest selling software along with it?

Is it bs to expect the highest selling console to have effort and significant software put on it by third-party publishers?

Lancestern has left his stigma in these threads.

You have been lurking for a while. :lol

 

[Chris1964]

Last time I do a comparison between Wii and PS3 third parties.
I know I will regret for what I'm doing right now but...

Famitsu 2006 top 500
PS3 3rd parties: 262.845 / 4 new games
WII 3rd parties: 227.067 / 8 new games

Famitsu 2007 top 500
PS3 3rd parties: 1.724.730 / 18 new games
WII 3rd parties: 2.754.663 / 32 new games

Famitsu 2008 top 500
PS3 3rd parties: 3.722.789 / 29 new games
WII 3rd parties: 2.589.652 / 34 new games

Famitsu 2009 top 30s (first 37 weeks)
PS3 3rd parties: 2.252.981 / 28 new games
WII 3rd parties: 1.957.062 / 20 new games

Famitsu total software (launch to today)
PS3 3rd parties: 7.963.345 / 79 new games / 100.802 per game
WII 3rd parties: 7.523.444 / 94 new games / 80.037 per game

Take the numbers and think whatever you want about them.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Would it be fair that Graces so sell at least 50k or more than Vesperia given the user base install? PS3 is kinda dwarfed by Wii so it should be equaled out

 

[Stumpokapow]

Would it be fair that Graces so sell at least 50k or more than Vesperia given the user base install? PS3 is kinda dwarfed by Wii so it should be equaled out

Would it be fair to say that the PSP or DS Tales installments should sell massive amounts more than Vesperia given the install base?

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Would it be fair to say that the PSP or DS Tales installments should sell massive amounts more than Vesperia given the install base?

Would it be fair to be confused? I am

Either way I DO expect Graces to outsell Vesperia for first week sales.

 

[freddy]

These are simple results from the Garaph game search, so things like BEST versions aren't added in, but

PS3 Top 20
Wii Top 20

Thanks. It would seem to me after looking at the sales figures for all those games that Japanese people are lapping up games they can play in short bursts(or long if they desire)and/or with friends. Much the same as other people around the world. Correct me if I'm wrong but Monster Hunter Portable G is a game in a similar vein as well. These are the type of games I believe can help consoles in Japan rise out of the doldrums, not just throwing more traditional software in the mix. I know we've seen Wii Sports Resort just released but its one game and it's a sequel.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Would it be fair to be confused? I am

My point was that while it's true that more hardware means a greater customer base to sell to, that's not necessarily true for a given genre, niche, or series, and there is a point past which software sales for an individual title are not going to benefit at all from the marginal difference in install bases.

I personally expect Graces to outsell Vesperia week one, but I don't think it's a lock, and I don't think failure to do so really reflects anything about either system.

If you look at sales patterns in the PS2 you can see this, actually. While overall software sales kept growing and growing, individual games didn't sell notably more in the back end of the PS2's lifespan than the front end. The DS is also a great candidate for this.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Sorry me byes, but this is between botticus and myself. Go find trouble elsewhere.

 

[Fredescu]

1. Nintendo is very strong at their systems, so every other publisher must turn their sources to other consoles.

I’ve said it many times but it seems some people just don’t want to understand it. Everyone competes with everyone and each generation’s leader always has the lion’s share of software sales.

I agree that the general point is silly, but the bolded seems wrong. If you take Gran Turismo out of the picture, you'd have a top ten games list on PS1 and PS2 made up entirely of third party efforts. I'm definitely not saying that this means that publishers are right to avoid Nintendo platforms because of the strength of first party games though.

 

[spwolf]

Last time I do a comparison between Wii and PS3 third parties.
I know I will regret for what I'm doing right now but...

Famitsu 2006 top 500
PS3 3rd parties: 262.845 / 4 new games
WII 3rd parties: 227.067 / 8 new games

Famitsu 2007 top 500
PS3 3rd parties: 1.724.730 / 18 new games
WII 3rd parties: 2.754.663 / 32 new games

Famitsu 2008 top 500
PS3 3rd parties: 3.722.789 / 29 new games
WII 3rd parties: 2.589.652 / 34 new games

Famitsu 2009 top 30s (first 37 weeks)
PS3 3rd parties: 2.252.981 / 28 new games
WII 3rd parties: 1.957.062 / 20 new games

Famitsu total software (launch to today)
PS3 3rd parties: 7.963.345 / 79 new games / 100.802 per game
WII 3rd parties: 7.523.444 / 94 new games / 80.037 per game

Take the numbers and think whatever you want about them.

peachy, anyone has data on 3rd party sales for PS2 (in first 3 years in Japan)?

 

[obonicus]

My point was that while it's true that more hardware means a greater customer base to sell to, that's not necessarily true for a given genre, niche, or series, and there is a point past which software sales for an individual title are not going to benefit at all from the marginal difference in install bases.

Attach-rate does seem to decrease as install-base increases, but I don't know that we can apply that here.

I mean, isn't the bet about whether the first-day sales of a year-late port of a main tales game will outsell the first-day sales of a new main tales game on a console with over twice the install-base? The very fact that this is an actual question suggests something that to me seems obvious, but is almost taboo in these threads: that the demographics of the Wii userbase is significantly different from the demographics of the PS3. (Whether this is bad, or whose fault is it is beside the point for this discussion.) Assuming similar demographics for both consoles, I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect significantly better sales on Wii. Not quite in line with the install-base ratio, but enough to make it so there'd be no doubt that Dragona'd lose the bet.

 

[Dalthien]

Attach-rate does seem to decrease as install-base increases, but I don't know that we can apply that here.

I mean, isn't the bet about whether the first-day sales of a year-late port of a main tales game will outsell the first-day sales of a new main tales game on a console with over twice the install-base? The very fact that this is an actual question suggests something that to me seems obvious, but is almost taboo in these threads: that the demographics of the Wii userbase is significantly different from the demographics of the PS3. (Whether this is bad, or whose fault is it is beside the point for this discussion.) Assuming similar demographics for both consoles, I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect significantly better sales on Wii. Not quite in line with the install-base ratio, but enough to make it so there'd be no doubt that Dragona'd lose the bet.

You are trying to read way too much into install base size as it pertains to Tales of...

The PSP has about 12 times the install base of the 360. And yet Tales games on the PSP sell about 1.5 times Vesperia on the 360.

Basically, there are a fixed number of people who buy the Tales series. Since the golden days of the PS2 (when the Tales series was a much more prominent series than it is today), every Tales game has fallen somewhere between 200-300k (give or take a little on either side), regardless of platform choice. That seems to be the size of the audience that likes to buy Tales games these days. And that same group seems to follow the series around to whatever platform. DS, PSP, Wii, 360, PS3 - they've all ended up selling roughly the same amount, even though each platform has a wildly different install base. There haven't been any outright disasters (<100k) or any huge successes (>500k) since the PS2.

 

[apujanata]

Attach-rate does seem to decrease as install-base increases, but I don't know that we can apply that here.

I mean, isn't the bet about whether the first-day sales of a year-late port of a main tales game will outsell the first-day sales of a new main tales game on a console with over twice the install-base? The very fact that this is an actual question suggests something that to me seems obvious, but is almost taboo in these threads: that the demographics of the Wii userbase is significantly different from the demographics of the PS3. (Whether this is bad, or whose fault is it is beside the point for this discussion.) Assuming similar demographics for both consoles, I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect significantly better sales on Wii. Not quite in line with the install-base ratio, but enough to make it so there'd be no doubt that Dragona'd lose the bet.

One of the reason why this is in doubt is because PS3 Slim is doing way better than most people predicted, and ToV is doing way better than most people predicted. If ToV PS3 is only doing 100K, and PS3 Slim first week is only 80K - 100K, I am pretty sure that most people would have predicted that ToG first week > ToV PS3 first week.

Sorry me byes, but this is between botticus and myself. Go find trouble elsewhere.

Oh well. It seems that I will remain tagless in the near future. At least tagless is better than "bad tag" .

 

[donny2112]

I agree that the general point is silly, but the bolded seems wrong. If you take Gran Turismo out of the picture, you'd have a top ten games list on PS1 and PS2 made up entirely of third party efforts. I'm definitely not saying that this means that publishers are right to avoid Nintendo platforms because of the strength of first party games though.

I believe Chris1964 is saying that when Nintendo had a small pond to acquire sales out of, third-parties could "avoid" competition with Nintendo games since their systems didn't have a large userbase. The particular part you bolded would've been used to say that lionshare of software sales in the two previous console generations would've been on PS1 and PS2, regardless of publisher, reflecting the idea of N64 and GCN having a much lower percentage of total sales, regardless of publisher, and Nintendo happened to have the most of that relatively small amount of total sales. This generation, Nintendo's pond is an ocean, so their total software sales as an individual publisher have gone up in turn. The lionshare of software sales are still on the biggest systems (DS and Wii) regardless of publisher, but third-parties can not go there or anywhere else to "avoid" competition with Nintendo games this generation.

Basically, his quote wasn't meant to indicate that the lionshare of sales are always from first-party games but rather that the lionshare of sales are always on the generational leading system.

peachy, anyone has data on 3rd party sales for PS2 (in first 3 years in Japan)?

So you're saying that you want to show that every other platform out there stinks when it comes to third-party sales, because that's the only thing you're going to accomplish by comparing PS2 third-party sales to any other system.

 

[apujanata]

So you're saying that you want to show that every other platform out there stinks when it comes to third-party sales, because that's the only thing you're going to accomplish by comparing PS2 third-party sales to any other system.

I think there is a slight chance that DS is the only platform (I know it is portable platform, but it is still a platform nonetheless) that can come out smelling rosy when compared to PS2, even in the 3rd party sales area (because of the # of game released on DS, so it is going to take a hit on average # / game).

 

[Fredescu]

Basically, his quote wasn't meant to indicate that the lionshare of sales are always from first-party games but rather that the lionshare of sales are always on the generational leading system.

Oh I see, I misread then.

 

[donny2112]

I think there is a slight chance that DS is the only platform (I know it is portable platform, but it is still a platform nonetheless) that can come out smelling rosy when compared to PS2, even in the 3rd party sales area (because of the # of game released on DS, so it is going to take a hit on average # / game).

Nope. Every system pales next to PS2 for third-party sales.

From my database, third-party sales at 4 yrs, 9 months (i.e. LTD for DS):
PS2 - 93.6m
NDS - 58.1m

In total sales, NDS is ahead by 25m, but that just shows how massive Nintendo has been this generation on the NDS.

 

[spwolf]

So you're saying that you want to show that every other platform out there stinks when it comes to third-party sales, because that's the only thing you're going to accomplish by comparing PS2 third-party sales to any other system.

was Wii success not compared to PS2? Was it not expected to go beyond PS2?
Comparing market leader to market leader will tell you how trully Wii is doing with 3rd parties.

so can you please get PS2 vs Wii info (2000vs2006, etc), and let us decide what to think? I believe it will show clearer picture of what many people were saying here and would be much appreciated!

 

[Thunder Monkey]

was Wii success not compared to PS2? Was it not expected to go beyond PS2?
Comparing market leader to market leader will tell you how trully Wii is doing with 3rd parties.

That's a fallacy.

We didn't know what was going to happen when we saw the Wii explode out of the gate. Now we see that there won't be a PS2 like console at all this generation in Japan, because the entire market has shifted to a handheld dominant market.

3rd parties bet on the wrong horse. Now the only horse that isn't limping from broken legs is the DS. And there's a huge competitor on that market that they didn't have to deal with before.

Markets change, and developers need to learn to change with them, instead of stubbornly denying that anything has changed.

 

[apujanata]

was Wii success not compared to PS2? Was it not expected to go beyond PS2?
Comparing market leader to market leader will tell you how trully Wii is doing with 3rd parties.

so can you please get PS2 vs Wii info (2000vs2006, etc), and let us decide what to think? I believe it will show clearer picture of what many people were saying here and would be much appreciated!

Why is there 3rd parties qualifier in your sentence? Let's make it all even steven, and compare ALL PS2 S/W against ALL Wii S/W and ALL DS S/W. Let's compare total strength (first party + 3rd party) against total strength, not major strength (PS2 third party) again minor strength (Wii third party).

If donny2112 wanted to add more data about 3rd parties, then good.

Nope. Every system pales next to PS2 for third-party sales.

How about ALL PS2 S/W vs ALL DS S/W ? Since we are comparing PS2's strength (3rd party) against DS' weakness (third party), I feel that the comparison is not really apple to apple.

By saying that DS have weakness in third party, I am thinking more about early years of DS, in which First party games (MK DS, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Pokemon D/S, Brain Age & BA2) crushed other first generation 3rd party S/W in total #.

 

[donny2112]

was Wii success not compared to PS2?

In hardware sales.

Was it not expected to go beyond PS2?

"If these trends continue..."

That boat has sailed in Japan. In the U.S., it's ahead in hardware and about even in total software. It's still way behind in third-party sales, because everything pales in comparison to PS2 for third-party sales.

Comparing market leader to market leader will tell you how trully Wii is doing with 3rd parties.

Could be a reasonable position if they had anything close to the same level of support from third-parties.

Edit:

Let's compare total strength (first party + 3rd party) against total strength, not major strength (PS2 third party) again minor strength (Wii third party).

If donny2112 wanted to add more data about 3rd parties, then good.


How about ALL PS2 S/W vs ALL DS S/W ?

I'll do this along with third-party. Give me a minute.

 

[freddy]

Donny how has the DS performed overall in software vs PS2 in the same time frame?
All lower 3rd party sales this generation on the market leader tells us is that 3rd parties are dropping the ball and doing something wrong.

What are we all trying to achieve in asking for 3rd party sales only? Genuinely interested in an answer here.

 

[DR2K]

Donny how has the DS performed overall in software vs PS2 in the same time frame?
All lower 3rd party sales this generation on the market leader tells us is that 3rd parties are dropping the ball and doing something wrong.

What are we all trying to achieve in asking for 3rd party sales only? Genuinely interested in an answer here.

Outside of first party I rarely see DS 3rd party setting the charts on fire. I guess like the Wii, it's more evenly distributed. 3rd parties aren't doing anything wrong, they're competing with Nintendo is the problem.

 

[apujanata]

I just remember something. IIRC, DS' 3rd party support on launch is not very good, since a lot of 3rd party are behind PSP. 3rd party support only became significant AFTER brain age, nintendogs etc are released, and DS became sold out continuously in Japan, and DSL came out.

PS2, on the other hand, have good 3rd party support right out of the gate, and the big series started hitting them around 10 - 18 months since launch.

Based on above mentioned factors, I believe that early period (launch - year 2) will favor PS2, while later period (year 3 to end of life) will favor DS. If we revisit this issue again in 2010 or 2011, I will be very curious whether my prediction hold true or not.

Outside of first party I rarely see DS 3rd party setting the charts on fire. I guess like the Wii, it's more evenly distributed. 3rd parties aren't doing anything wrong, they're competing with Nintendo is the problem.

I think the bigger problem is that 3rd party have difficulty providing the type of gaming that "extended market" want. During GBA, 3rd party are doing well, like Rockman EXE 4 Tournament Red Sun / Blue Moon, which have almost 1 Million sales. Also Mushi King, with it's almost 700K sales.

Games like Brain Age, Nintendogs, Wagamama are games that are not traditional, and are new genres. Until third party can start tapping into those market, 3rd party are always going to play catch up with Nintendo. Nintendo are innovating a lot in the DS S/W, but not a much innovation on Wii S/W.

 

[spwolf]

All lower 3rd party sales this generation on the market leader tells us is that 3rd parties are dropping the ball and doing something wrong.

it takes two to tango...

 

[Thunder Monkey]

it takes two to tango...

But what if one wants to tango and the other says "Fuck you! You ugly jerk!"

 

[apujanata]

But what if one wants to tango and the other says "Fuck you! You ugly jerk!"

Ah, a scene from beauty and the beast. What a lovely disney animated movie. I like it a lot.

Back to topic, for those who like conspiracy theory, listen to this :
Nintendo are secrectly pushing for 3rd party to stay away from Nintendo console (by not offering money hat, not courting them enough in other non-money way), because they are secretly wishing that ALL 3rd party developer goes bankrupt/loss money a lot, so Nintendo can either buy them on cheap, or just let them collapse. This way, 3rd party became irrelevant, and Nintendo can crush Sony with it's puny (compared to Nintendo) 1st party developer together with Microsoft almost non-existence (because Microsoft closed them down) 1st party.

That way, Yamauchi can laugh and get more money, because they get monopoly on console gaming.

 

[donny2112]

All data from my database, i.e. Famitsu but not 100% complete.

PS2 vs. NDS (4 yrs, 9 mos from launch):

Total SW:
PS2 - 101.0m
NDS - 128.5m

Total 3rd-party SW: (I had a bug in the previous query)
PS2 - 90.5m
NDS - 56.7m

Total 1st-party SW:
PS2 - 10.5m
NDS - 71.8m


PS2 vs. Wii (2 yrs, 9 mos from launch):

Total SW:
PS2 - 44.7m
WII - 32.0m

Total 3rd-party SW:
PS2 - 38.9m
WII - 8.1m

Total 1st-party SW:
PS2 - 5.8m
WII - 23.9m

Edit:

Based on above mentioned factors, I believe that early period (launch - year 2) will favor PS2, while later period (year 3 to end of life) will favor DS. If we revisit this issue again in 2010 or 2011, I will be very curious whether my prediction hold true or not.

NDS 3rd-party through 2 yrs, 9 mos - 22.9m

You should be able to work out approximately what you were looking for with that.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Ah, a scene from beauty and the beast. What a lovely disney animated movie. I like it a lot.

Actually, a direct memory from High School.

 

[cvxfreak]

Do we have Media Create LTD for the Dreamcast?

I just realized that the DS has outsold the PS2, GameCube and Xbox combined, and seems to have done it a long time ago.

After another year or so, I think we can say that the Wii + PS3 + 360 will have outsold the GBA. :lol

Has it outsold the combined PS1, N64 and Saturn yet?

 

[donny2112]

Do we have Media Create LTD for the Dreamcast?

Jonnyram posted an image with MC LTDs through Sept 1, 2002 before. On that, it had the DC at 2.18m LTD.

Has it outsold the combined PS1, N64 and Saturn yet?

From the same image,

PS1 - 17.14m
N64 - 3.79m

Nothing for Saturn, though.

 

[apujanata]

All data from my database, i.e. Famitsu but not 100% complete.

Total 3rd-party SW: (I had a bug in the previous query)
PS2 - 90.5m
NDS - 56.7m

Total 1st-party SW:
PS2 - 10.5m
NDS - 71.8m


NDS 3rd-party through 2 yrs, 9 mos - 22.9m

You should be able to work out approximately what you were looking for with that.

I sincerely regret your failure to live up to your promise :

I'll do this along with third-party. Give me a minute.

It actually take you 20 minutes instead of one minute. This is very bad

DS 3rd party first 2 years : 22.9 M
DS 3rd party, second 2 years " 33.8M (actually not 2 complete years yet, but le'ts ignore that)

Do you have figure for PS2 3rd party in the first 2 years ? Need that to make better comparison and trending.

 

[donny2112]

I sincerely regret your failure to live up to your promise :

I didn't promise.

Do you have figure for PS2 3rd party in the first 2 years ?

See the PS2 vs. Wii section. It has the PS2 third-party sales at 2 yrs, 9 mos there.

 

[apujanata]

I didn't promise.



See the PS2 vs. Wii section. It has the PS2 third-party sales at 2 yrs, 9 mos there.

I was hoping for a more accurate period (2 years) instead of 2 years, 9 months. Anyway I got the general idea that PS2 is a beast, and there is slight hope that DS 3rd party will be able to beat PS2 3rd party, unless DS is alive for more than 10 years (like Gameboy), and only manage to beat PS2 3rd party because it (DS) lived longer.

So, PS2 Total S/W is somewhere between DS (best) and Wii (worst). Nice response, donny2112. Thanks.

Poor 3rd party. They have very difficult choices :
A. Put on leading platform (DS & Wii), and compete against Nintendo directly.
B. Put on non-leading platform (PSP, PS3 & X360), and compete against Nintendo indirectly.

I believe they should choose A, and choose area where Nintendo are not strong at, like RPG (since Nintendo only have Pokemon), fighting (Nintendo only have SSBB), racing (Nintendo only have Mario Kart), Sports (Nintendo have a few games, but weak sales on average).

Come to think of it, Nintendo is quite spread out, and don't have a single strong point (only one series for a genre)

 

[freddy]

So Nintendo is this mythical untouchable beast that is so much better than every other software company that they are too scared to compete? I'm not buying that.

Look at Donnys' figures there. I don't think anyone can argue that Nintendo hasn't provided an adequate user base so we can discount that. It also seems that Nintendo is moving absolute bucketloads of software on their own systems so it's not like the right software doesn't sell either.

I see this talk every week on here that Nintendo is to blame for the software that could have been on their system. Somehow in fantasy land it's mostly Nintendos' fault for not doing more. It takes two to tango after all right? Looks to me like Nintendo is dancing on its own. They're not perfect by any stretch but their far from the being the culprit here.

It's not rocket science. You look at what is selling and you put your best teams onto replicating that success for your own company. Companies like Capcom and Konami can't compete? 3rd parties can compete with Nintendo but not with their B and C teams. Last gen we had million sellers from third parties because the best teams were on the systems with the highest userbase. You reap what you sow and what you see right now is the result. They have dropped the ball and dropped it hard.

 

[spwolf]

PS2 vs. Wii (2 yrs, 9 mos from launch):

Total SW:
PS2 - 44.7m
WII - 32.0m

Total 3rd-party SW:
PS2 - 38.9m
WII - 8.1m

...

You should be able to work out approximately what you were looking for with that.

can i beg you for one more query? Since it is obviously impossible to compare Wii to anything without DS thrown in, can we then compare first 2 years of Wii vs NDS, 1st party and 3rd party software?

I guess it will show the same thing (lack of 3rd parties hurting the system), without any system wars innuendo...

 

[obonicus]

You are trying to read way too much into install base size as it pertains to Tales of...

The PSP has about 12 times the install base of the 360. And yet Tales games on the PSP sell about 1.5 times Vesperia on the 360.

Well, like I (and Stump) said, attach-rate does go down with install-base. Also, the 360 has a particularly high attach-rate. (And has the PSP gotten a main entry in the series? The best-selling game in garaph is ToW:RM2, which seems to be a fanservice spinoff.)

Basically, there are a fixed number of people who buy the Tales series. Since the golden days of the PS2 (when the Tales series was a much more prominent series than it is today), every Tales game has fallen somewhere between 200-300k (give or take a little on either side), regardless of platform choice. That seems to be the size of the audience that likes to buy Tales games these days. And that same group seems to follow the series around to whatever platform. DS, PSP, Wii, 360, PS3 - they've all ended up selling roughly the same amount, even though each platform has a wildly different install base. There haven't been any outright disasters (<100k) or any huge successes (>500k) since the PS2.

I don't think any of that is true. Didn't Vesperia PS3 have a better first-day than the 360 one (in fact, didn't it do the 360's entire LTD in the first day)? If you were right, we'd see the same first-day sales every single time, even assuming that your die-hards would buy the same game twice over. There's some inelasticity there, but that's true for practically any game/series (except possibly those made by Nintendo), but if it were a fixed fanbase I don't think anyone would be contemplating the whole ToG vs. ToV bet as more than a joke.

 

[apujanata]

can i beg you for one more query? Since it is obviously impossible to compare Wii to anything without DS thrown in, can we then compare first 2 years of Wii vs NDS, 1st party and 3rd party software?

I guess it will show the same thing (lack of 3rd parties hurting the system), without any system wars innuendo...

Lack of 3rd parties will hurt any system (be it Nintendo, Sony or MSFT), but betting on the wrong horse will hurt 3rd parties even more. We have seen lots of Western developer folding up (goes bankrupt) in year 2008 and 2009, and it is possible that some Japanese developer can/will fold up in the future (2010 or 2011). The only thing saving Japanese developer is because they are more fiscally prudent, and didn't invest too much on HD console games (yet).

I am not predicting Japanese developer collapse, but it could happen. Who will be the first ? No idea, but I think Konami is one of the candidate. Konami relied too much on MGS4, and if anything happen to the cash cow, they will have big problem. Whether the problem will cause them to go down is anyone's guess, but I believe Konami is vulnerable. SEGA is another vulnerable company, with only Mario & Sonic at Olympic as their single big game.

On the other hand, Gamefreak only have Pokemon, and it survived by a single game releasing every 3 years. However, Pokemon didn't have very big development cost (IMO, since Pokemon graphics are very basic), so it is not a surprise it can survive (all those remakes are bonuses to them, since the remake are selling very, very well).

 

[obonicus]

One of the reason why this is in doubt is because PS3 Slim is doing way better than most people predicted, and ToV is doing way better than most people predicted. If ToV PS3 is only doing 100K, and PS3 Slim first week is only 80K - 100K, I am pretty sure that most people would have predicted that ToG first week > ToV PS3 first week.

Well, yeah, people aren't completely crazy, they're not betting on something they know nothing about (they prefer to do that in hype threads, occasionally in recommendation threads). My point is that this is unique to the Wii and the composition of its userbase. Would anyone have made a bet like this when comparing the sales of different Symphonia (PS2 version a year-late port) versions or would the title's superior performance on PS2 be a foregone conclusion?

 

[Dalthien]

I don't think any of that is true. Didn't Vesperia PS3 have a better first-day than the 360 one (in fact, didn't it do the 360's entire LTD in the first day)?

Tales 360 sold 200k. The PS3 version may very well match the 360 LTD in the first week, but definitely not on the first day. I was using the 360 version as the baseline example because the 360 is one of the worst software selling systems released in Japan. Ever. The top selling game is still only 200k after 4 years on the market.

If you were right, we'd see the same first-day sales every single time, even assuming that your die-hards would buy the same game twice over. There's some inelasticity there, but that's true for practically any game/series (except possibly those made by Nintendo), but if it were a fixed fanbase I don't think anyone would be contemplating the whole ToG vs. ToV bet as more than a joke.

Come on now. Of course the exact same number won't turn up every time. But just for fun, let's look at the Tales series since the PS2


318k - PSP - Radiant Mythology 2
259k - DS - Hearts
246k - DS - Innocence
216k - PSP - Versus
214k - PSP - Radiant Mythology
212k - Wii - Symphonia DotNW
206k - DS - Tempest
195k - 360 - Vesperia
194k - PSP - Eternia
142k - PSP - Destiny 2
112k - PSP - Phantasia FVE
83k - PSP - Rebirth

And the PS3 version will fall somewhere on the high end of this list.

So we have multiple games across five different platforms all hanging out in the 200k-300k range. Pretty damn consistent, I would say. Especially considering that this was a series capable of 500k-600k on the PS2 not all that long ago.

Well, yeah, people aren't completely crazy, they're not betting on something they know nothing about (they prefer to do that in hype threads, occasionally in recommendation threads). My point is that this is unique to the Wii and the composition of its userbase. Would anyone have made a bet like this when comparing the sales of different Symphonia (PS2 version a year-late port) versions or would the title's superior performance on PS2 be a foregone conclusion?

It's not unique to the Wii. The DS has had new Tales games (considered to be part of the main series - if that even means anything anymore with this series) that have also fallen within this same sales range. And yet Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, etc. have all managed to sell very well on the DS. So there clearly isn't a problem selling rpgs on the DS. And the DS has something like 25 times the userbase of the 360. And yet, the same 200k - 300k in sales every time.

That's not to say that this is set in stone forevermore. But it does paint a remarkable picture of stable mediocrity (for this particular series) regardless of platform.

 

[obonicus]

Tales 360 sold 200k. The PS3 version may very well match the 360 LTD in the first week, but definitely not on the first day. I was using the 360 version as the baseline example because the 360 is one of the worst software selling systems released in Japan. Ever. The top selling game is still only 200k after 4 years on the market.

Where'd you get 200k? Garaph lists 160k. But again, the 360's attach-rate for JRPGs is enormous, it will skew comparisons. If your 200k number is correct, 1 in 5 bought ToV. Even lower-profile RPGs have had very high attach rates.

Come on now. Of course the exact same number won't turn up every time. But just for fun, let's look at the Tales series since the PS2


318k - PSP - Radiant Mythology 2
259k - DS - Hearts
246k - DS - Innocence
216k - PSP - Versus
214k - PSP - Radiant Mythology
212k - Wii - Symphonia DotNW
206k - DS - Tempest
195k - 360 - Vesperia
194k - PSP - Eternia
142k - PSP - Destiny 2
112k - PSP - Phantasia FVE
83k - PSP - Rebirth

And the PS3 version will fall somewhere on the high end of this list.

So we have multiple games across five different platforms all hanging out in the 200k-300k range. Pretty damn consistent, I would say. Especially considering that this was a series capable of 500k-600k on the PS2 not all that long ago.

Actually, that doesn't really look like 200-300k. It looks like 80-300k. The average is 200k, most of the titles are in the 140-260k range. And yeah, there is consistency there, but in the same way that there's consistency across nearly every other series. You're right that there's a limited audience for these games, but you're not pointing out anything unique to the Tales of series.

It's not unique to the Wii. The DS has had new Tales games (considered to be part of the main series - if that even means anything anymore with this series) that have also fallen within this same sales range. And yet Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, etc. have all managed to sell very well on the DS. So there clearly isn't a problem selling rpgs on the DS. And the DS has something like 25 times the userbase of the 360. And yet, the same 200k - 300k in sales every time.

That's pretty unfair. Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest selling well on a platform doesn't really mean much, they're two of the biggest Japanese IPs. Tales was never in the same league. I'm not denying that the series' popularity has declined, just that comparing its sales to FF or DQ as a way of proving that is, well, wrong.

That's not to say that this is set in stone forevermore. But it does paint a remarkable picture of stable mediocrity (for this particular series) regardless of platform.

Which, most importantly, doesn't even address the comment you replied to in the first place. This is about people's expectations in this thread being so low that they accept the possibility that a new main entry in this front-loaded series on a more popular console won't do better initial numbers than a year-old port on the PS3. No one's saying that the Wii version should outsell the PS3 game by 2:1 (well, I'm not, anyway). They're instead afraid that the Wii version will barely outsell it, if that.

 

[Dalthien]

Where'd you get 200k? Garaph lists 160k.

Joshua does a wonderful job with garaph, but it isn't always up-to-date with the latest available data.

Actually, that doesn't really look like 200-300k. The average is 200k, most of the titles are in the 140-260k range.

Are you really trying to argue the range? There are just as many titles in the 194k-318k range as there are in the 140k-260k range, but whatever.

That's pretty unfair. Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest selling well on a platform doesn't really mean much, they're two of the biggest Japanese IPs. Tales was never in the same league. I'm not denying that the series' popularity has declined, just that comparing its sales to FF or DQ as a way of proving that is, well, wrong.

Fine, choose your own RPG. The DS is the undisputed king of JRPGs in Japan this generation. Nothing else is even remotely close. So feel free to dismiss Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, and choose your own RPGs, and the conclusion will be the same.

I'm not comparing Tales to FF or DQ in terms of absolute sales. I'm pointing out that the DS is the RPG system in Japan, and it has a userbase approaching 30 million, and yet even with a main entry in the Tales series, the DS version was outsold by a PSP version. That fact alone makes it pretty clear that the Wii having a greater userbase than the PS3 plays only a very minor role when it comes to how well a Tales game will sell on the two platforms.

Heck - Vesperia 360 sold on par with Tempest DS, despite a userbase difference of roughly 25:1. So yeah, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Vesperia PS3 may be able to potentially outsell a Wii Tales game when the userbase difference is only a little more than 2:1, and the Wii has a much weaker RPG base than the DS. Likewise, it shouldn't be surprising if the Wii version does outsell the PS3 version. The series has been so consistent across the various platforms this gen, that at this point in time, either scenario seems perfectly plausible to me. As we move forward the next few years, one platform may emerge as the dominant choice for the Tales series - but that hasn't happened yet, and it may not happen at all this generation.

Which, most importantly, doesn't even address the comment you replied to in the first place. This is about people's expectations in this thread being so low that they accept the possibility that a new main entry in this front-loaded series on a more popular console won't do better initial numbers than a year-old port on the PS3. No one's saying that the Wii version should outsell the PS3 game by 2:1 (well, I'm not, anyway). They're instead afraid that the Wii version will barely outsell it, if that.

The Wii version may or may not outsell the PS3 version. I wouldn't be surprised either way. And I wouldn't have been surprised either way a couple months ago either.

As I've said, the Tales franchise has proven to be very stable in terms of sales across numerous platforms with very different userbases. So given that both the Wii and PS3 version are starting from roughly the same point - other factors will determine which one comes out ahead.

Will one version be considered to be a better game than the other? Will the previous 360 Vesperia hurt sales of the PS3 version, or will many people double-dip in order to get the new content? Will Vesperia's strong reviews and good word-of-mouth since the 360 release help boost sales on the PS3? Will the mediocre quality of the previous Wii game stunt sales of the new Wii game? Will the new influx of people to the Slim help provide a boost to the PS3 version? Will hardware sales at the time of the release of the Wii version be a boost or detriment to the Wii version? Will one version receive a greater advertising push than the other version?

Who knows. I certainly don't. But given the generally stable sales of the series the past few years, these are the factors which will tip sales one way or the other for each version.

But I wasn't all that surprised when the DS versions were outsold by some PSP versions, despite the DS having more than double the PSP userbase, and the DS having a much stronger RPG userbase.

And guess what. Vesperia PS3 will likely outsell all 3 Tales games on the DS. Even though the DS crushes the Wii in both overall userbase and RPG userbase in particular. So why would it be such a surprise if the PS3 version outsells a Wii version of Tales? This isn't exactly uncharted territory for the Tales series.

 

[test_account]

Does anyone think that Tales of Vesperia PS3 might have had a noticeable effect on the PS3 hardware sales? It seems that the Xbox 360 version of Tales of Vesperia affected the Xbox 360 hardware sales quite a big (going from 6,368 from the week before to 15,742 the next week, and the next week after the ToV Xbox 360 release it was 15,743 (Famitsu numbers)), or was there any other factors involved to this hardware bump as well? I know that ToV Xbox 360 got a bundle though, but wouldnt there still be a noticeable hardware bump?

 

[°°ToMmY°°]

Does anyone think that Tales of Vesperia PS3 might have had a noticeable effect on the PS3 hardware sales? It seems that the Xbox 360 version of Tales of Vesperia affected the Xbox 360 hardware sales quite a big (going from 6,368 from the week before to 15,742 the next week, and the next week after the ToV Xbox 360 release it was 15,743 (Famitsu numbers)), or was there any other factors involved to this hardware bump as well? I know that ToV Xbox 360 got a bundle though, but wouldnt there still be a noticeable hardware bump?

i remember there was a price cut in that period, but i'm not sure it was before or after tov launched.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[wsippel]

IntSys (1-2 teams) - ???. Most recently worked on Dragon Quest Wars, WarioWare Snapped, WarioWare DIY, Card Hero DSiWare

They also seem to be the developers behind Eco Shooter for WiiWare.

 

[ZeoVGM]

The idea that Wii has been doing "dismal" or that it's completely screwed in Japan boggles my mind. That's quite a bit of hyperbole. It's not as if PS3 sales are going to stay at the level they are now forever either.

 

[apujanata]

IIRC, there is one DS Tales games that are so shitty, it caused the public to be wary of DS Tales games. I forgot the name of the game, since I don't play Tales games on portable, so maybe a Tales fan can explain that in more detail ?

It is interesting to see the # of sales when sorted by release date :

216k - PSP - Versus		06/08/2009 (Fighting game??)
318k - PSP - Radiant Mythology 2	29/01/2009
259k - DS - Hearts		18/12/2008
195k - 360 - Vesperia		07/08/2008
212k - Wii - Symphonia DotNW	26/06/2008
83k - PSP - Rebirth		19/03/2008
246k - DS - Innocence		06/12/2007
142k - PSP - Destiny 2		15/02/2007
214k - PSP - Radiant Mythology	21/12/2006
206k - DS - Tempest		26/10/2006
112k - PSP - Phantasia FVE	07/09/2006
194k - PSP - Eternia0		3/03/2005

If the Tales Versus is a fighting game, shouldn't we put it out of comparison, since the other Tales games are all RPG ?

The idea that Wii has been doing "dismal" or that it's completely screwed in Japan boggles my mind. That's quite a bit of hyperbole. It's not as if PS3 sales are going to stay at the level they are now forever either.

Dragona was referring to the possibilities that Wii will not break PS2 record in Japan, NOT that Wii can be #2 console in Japan behind PS3. There is high expectation that Wii can surpass PS2 record, in both H/W and S/W, and recent trend in Japan seems to make that possibilities became smaller and smaller and smaller (not zero yet, but pretty close).

 

[Datschge]

NBGI announced "main" Tales games for DS from the very beginning. The first "main" Tales game turned out to be Tempest by Dimps, which did such a glorious price collapse that NBGI introduced the term "escort" Tales game. The second "main" Tales game was Innocence by Alfa System, which did better but still received mixed response. Once Tales Studio itself finally touched a "main" Tales game for DS, Hearts, the general response seemed to be "whatever" even though the game itself is well received. Unlike PS1, PS2 and PSP the DS never got minor releases (like ports and crossover games) so much of the fan base likely never played along with NBGI's "the DS is our main Tales system" masquerade.

Versus is a text/skit adventure in the vain of the two Fandom game, just expanded with a Smash Bros./Jump Superstar alike take on the 2D Tales battle system. It does have plenty RPG leveling mechanics though.