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Media Create Sales: Week 06, 2011 (Feb 7 - Feb 13)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Baki
Member
duckroll said:
Oh snap. Didn't realize that. Just looked at the LTD now (about a few thousand from 17m). By the end of the year, they should be sitting comfortably on 18.5m. I wonder if it'll have the legs to reach 20m even though the PSP2 will be out?
So, the second question is. Will there be a price drop? Or new slimmer model for the PSP? I think the latter is a no, but a price drop? hmm... I guess they'd have the buffer potential losses on the PSP2 so a pricedrop may not be well advised.
Smiles and Cries
Member
duckroll said:
which should mean the NGP will take the #1 spot if they do everything just right
Paracelsus
Member
Smiles and Cries said:
There's no way it will happen, if anything because of the headstart they gave to the 3DS.
Baki
Member
Smiles and Cries said:
NGP is definitely a contender for the 3DS in Japan (on a weekly/monthly not necessarily LTD basis). Which means, for now, it seems to be the only interesting territory for the "handheld" market share battle. (Too bad the potential 6 month gap means the 3DS will have a hefty lead).
dragonflys545
Member
Good first week for Sengoku Musou Z, come on Koei make the announcement for it to be release in the states already!!!! Lol at the numbers for the Wii version...
AranhaHunter
Banned
duckroll said:
Isn't it already?
Anyways I'm very curious to see what Sony is gonna do with PSP pricing as a whole this year. Even with NGP coming this Fall I don't think they need a price drop in Japan, but they obviously need one in the US and EU way before then.
We, at this stage, know next to nothing about how the handheld battle will pan out because we don't have a clue what type of software is in development for NGP.
The main problem I see for Sony is that it will be much less costly for Capcom to scale MHP up (or MHTri down) to 3DS level than to NGP level.
I can quite easily see Sony losing MH to 3DS(or at the very least, multiplatform), while it will likely pick up ports or versions of Capcom's PS3 output (RE6?). With how well PS2 support worked out for PSP, this would be a major loss.
The main problem I see for Sony is that it will be much less costly for Capcom to scale MHP up (or MHTri down) to 3DS level than to NGP level.
I can quite easily see Sony losing MH to 3DS(or at the very least, multiplatform), while it will likely pick up ports or versions of Capcom's PS3 output (RE6?). With how well PS2 support worked out for PSP, this would be a major loss.
The problem I have with envisioning the PSP2 being as successful a competitor against the 3DS as the PSP was to the DS is that unfortunately the gaming industry is not a void limited to specific territories. While the PSP has continued to find great success in Japan despite being meaningless outside of Japan, this does not mean that developers and publishers are happy with it. It means that they are thankful that at least there is still a market in Japan. But that is not an ideal situation.
Let's take recent big releases like Peace Walker and Birth by Sleep. They sold pretty well in Japan, but pretty much tanked outside of Japan. BbS did way better than PW did in the US, but still, ~300k for a huge KH game positioned as a mainline prequel? That's terrible. Even the spinoffs for KH in the US can close in on a million units sold. Since big major titles like these are not developed solely for the Japanese market, given a choice between a platform that has hope for worldwide sales, and a platform with only hope for sales in Japan, I don't see publishers picking the Japan only platform.
Sure, titles like MHP, God Eater, Phantasy Star Portable, might well have a future on the PSP2, since overseas sales are not really all that meaningful to the franchises. But if these are the only titles which are exclusive to the PSP2, and big worldwide brands like FF, KH, MGS, etc decide to spend time between the PS3 and the 3DS, to maximize worldwide figures, then the gap between the 3DS and the PSP2 will grow much wider even in Japan, compared to the PSP and DS.
That's basically the main issue I see with the PSP2. If Sony can find a way to turn it around and make the PSP2 meaningful outside of Japan to attract third party publishers to seriously consider that it has a chance outside of Japan, that would be a different issue. At the moment though, I'm not seeing it.
Let's take recent big releases like Peace Walker and Birth by Sleep. They sold pretty well in Japan, but pretty much tanked outside of Japan. BbS did way better than PW did in the US, but still, ~300k for a huge KH game positioned as a mainline prequel? That's terrible. Even the spinoffs for KH in the US can close in on a million units sold. Since big major titles like these are not developed solely for the Japanese market, given a choice between a platform that has hope for worldwide sales, and a platform with only hope for sales in Japan, I don't see publishers picking the Japan only platform.
Sure, titles like MHP, God Eater, Phantasy Star Portable, might well have a future on the PSP2, since overseas sales are not really all that meaningful to the franchises. But if these are the only titles which are exclusive to the PSP2, and big worldwide brands like FF, KH, MGS, etc decide to spend time between the PS3 and the 3DS, to maximize worldwide figures, then the gap between the 3DS and the PSP2 will grow much wider even in Japan, compared to the PSP and DS.
That's basically the main issue I see with the PSP2. If Sony can find a way to turn it around and make the PSP2 meaningful outside of Japan to attract third party publishers to seriously consider that it has a chance outside of Japan, that would be a different issue. At the moment though, I'm not seeing it.
Baki
Member
duckroll said:
That's actually quite an interesting perspective and definitely something I have failed to entertain.
I guess an alternative option would be to lobby developers to use assets created for PSP2 for multiplatform HD games? Maybe that would make a possible "Japan" only PSP2 attractive to developers?
I don't think "Japan only" should be a serious objective for any first party. That would be totally defeatist. Sony needs to find a way to turn things around outside of Japan. That might be why they're pushing Uncharted, Resistance, and Killzone on the PSP2 sizzle reel, but they really need to do a lot more. I'm a total pessimist when it comes to the chances the PSP2 has outside of Japan, because the situation for the PSP right now is beyond dire. It's a total wasteland at retail.
It would take a lot to turn it around outside of Japan, and portable PS3-like titles alone are not going to cut it. Sony needs to do something really unexpected (in a good way). They need something like a major new first party IP from Epic, like what Gears of War was for the 360, to even stand a chance. What I don't see is why any developer would invest actual effort into developing an IP on a platform which could tank really, really badly.
It would take a lot to turn it around outside of Japan, and portable PS3-like titles alone are not going to cut it. Sony needs to do something really unexpected (in a good way). They need something like a major new first party IP from Epic, like what Gears of War was for the 360, to even stand a chance. What I don't see is why any developer would invest actual effort into developing an IP on a platform which could tank really, really badly.
Baki
Member
duckroll said:
Well Epic needs to showcase the UE3 engine on the hardware. I think that could be a really good opportunity for Sony to court them to make a really solid piece of software to showcase the systems strengths.
I guess the online infrastructure could be what paves the way for PSP2 success in the west.
Sony has the potential to be the dudebro handheld of choice if they play their cards right and we've seen how lucrative that market has been for MS in the US.
Smiles and Cries
Member
duckroll said:
they can start by not calling it the PSP2 and tie it much closer to PS3 somehow
moving away from all the PSP's faults. I mean they are starting off with Uncharted that should do well outside of Japan
I am not really sure 6 months is enough for a 3DS victory, I still believe the NGP has a better chance at taking Nintendo out.
Japan is still important Sony needs to win Japan. If Sony does not find a way to money hat MH keeping it NGP then it may have some issues
I am not sure if Japan would not bite on a good Monster Hunter 3D and see all the fans jump ship to 3DS regardless of the PS3 level graphics Sony has to offer
it will be very interesting, I don't see a wide enough gap for a Nintendo Victory just a feeling - Nintendo needs to churn out 3DS in large volumes to solidify a head start they may not be able to keep up with demand
Baki
Member
Smiles and Cries said:
By the time the PSP2 comes out in Japan, I suspect that the 3DS will have close to ~1M ahead in Japan. It all depends on how much they can pump out.
That said, PSP2 will have a killer app day one. That would be the twin stick version of Monster Hunter Portable 3 (possibly 3G could be out by then).
Smiles and Cries
Member
Baki said:
I was thinking that the 3DS could be closer to 3 Million head start 6 months from now in Japan so I still stay that is not enough - I just feel Sony has a chance. Yes Nintendo needs to drop to ball a bit not sure what the mistake will be but I can say only one analog stick was a major one. It keeps easy ports of things like MH at bay
Baki
Member
duckroll said:
Probably a poor estimation on my part. I guess Nintendo shipping something like 2m consoles within that period is far more realistic.
Smiles and Cries said:
3m? That's how much the DS sold last year? I don't know if they will be able to produce that many within a 6 month window.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Smiles and Cries said:
Because we all know how much the PSP's single analog set up kept MH ports at bay.
Truth is, it's not really going to stop anyone from porting anything.
Father_Brain
Banned
Baki said:
MS has proven that there's a lucrative market for a dudebro handheld? How?
I get what you meant to say, but it's by no means proven that the bulk of the dudebro demographic has any interest in playing games like Halo, CoD, Gears, etc. on a handheld.
Based on what little we know now, I share Duckroll's pessimism regarding NGP. He didn't even mention 3DS' lead time (which could well include one unchallenged holiday season in the US and/or Europe), or the significantly higher development costs on NGP compared to 3DS, both of which are pretty big disadvantages for Sony.
Smiles and Cries
Member
duckroll said:
1mil should be the first 3 weeks if not major meltdowns to come
Baki
Member
Father_Brain said:
I don't think you quite got what I meant. I meant that *IF* the PSP2 became the handheld of choice for the "dudebro" market. It could be quite lucrative for them in the US because we've seen how lucrative that market has been for MS in the US.
So basically it is a qualifier based on the dudebro market being interested in handheld gaming in the first place.
Smiles and Cries
Member
jeremy1456 said:
Just face it, PSP did not have a rival with 2 sticks so it did okay regardless
but the 3DS does have a challenger with 2 sticks sure the 3DS may still get its MH but why give devs excuses to think twice about it?
Smiles and Cries said:
Monster Hunter has been fine on the PSP, with one analog stick, for multiple iterations of the game.
As for "giving executives an opportunity to think twice about porting MH to the 3DS", I'm sure the piles of cash that might very much be made by that decision would do a lot to convince them.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Smiles and Cries said:
Is my sarcasm detector broken today?
Pureauthor
Member
jeremy1456 said:
The bigger question than whether or not both systems get the port will be which system the consumers choose to play it on.
Smiles and Cries
Member
gerg said:
okay then Advantage goes to Nintendo's court on this one? Or does the MH fanbase stay with Sony's platform?
Nintendo's relationship with Capcom is pretty good and Monster Hunter has touched all Platforms so far so I guess I cannot give NGP an advantage on this they need something else as duckroll pointed out
Smiles and Cries said:
As I said above, I think it entirely conceivable that the Monster Hunter fanbase remains on Sony's platform. But I think the bigger factor in that is that the NGP is graphically and technologically a more superior platform than the 3DS. In comparison to that, the lack of a second analog stick is small beans.
Smiles and Cries
Member
gerg said:
they did say NGP is easy to work with do you see MH as a launch title? Or a year later?
they would need something to make a decent dent on Nintendo's lead
where are the SONY Defense Force? Do they still hate sales-age threads?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Smiles and Cries said:
Are you talking about the MH3 port? I could see that coming out close to launch.
Brand new MH game? At least a year after, probably 2. MH4 hasn't even been announced yet, and an MHP3G wouldn't have nearly the impact.
Smiles and Cries
Member
jeremy1456 said:
can they sell one more MH3 port? how many ports of this has been out?
wait there is no PS3 versions of these games?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Smiles and Cries said:
Well there's MH3 and MHP3. They can still do a MHP3G.
Not to curtail all of the PSP2 and 3DS talk but I'm really envious of Japan getting Rune Factory: Oceans next week along with Disgaea 4. And they got Catherine this week also, didn't they?
I would say Catherine and Disgaea 4 are a lock for a Stateside release this year but who knows how long it will take for us to get RF: Oceans. Those ports generally take awhile =(
I think the PSP2 will fare well against the 3DS in Japan and elsewhere. I've said it in other threads but I think it has the potential to be the best piece of gaming hardware Sony has ever made and by removing alot of the old hurdles that developers were used to dealing with on a Sony platform I think the device will be well supported with software. It's powerful, it has multiple interface methods, multiple content delivery methods and by all accounts will be far easier to develop for and port to than anything Sony has ever produced.
Not to take away anything from the 3DS because it's going to do gangbusters everywhere but I honestly believe the future of the PSP2 is fairly bright.
I would say Catherine and Disgaea 4 are a lock for a Stateside release this year but who knows how long it will take for us to get RF: Oceans. Those ports generally take awhile =(
I think the PSP2 will fare well against the 3DS in Japan and elsewhere. I've said it in other threads but I think it has the potential to be the best piece of gaming hardware Sony has ever made and by removing alot of the old hurdles that developers were used to dealing with on a Sony platform I think the device will be well supported with software. It's powerful, it has multiple interface methods, multiple content delivery methods and by all accounts will be far easier to develop for and port to than anything Sony has ever produced.
Not to take away anything from the 3DS because it's going to do gangbusters everywhere but I honestly believe the future of the PSP2 is fairly bright.
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
duckroll said:
That press conference seemed like it was entirely aimed at the west Bam uncharted then go through every Sony first party hit there is, The only thing that was from the Japan side was whee, MHP3 with AA. I mean third party developers spoke almost nothing of what they were doing, so I'd say we can make judgements just yet...........
(On that note what happened to Sony Japan's 2nd and third party studios, why we do we have so many worldwide studios but almost nothing left in Japan now?
______________________
EDIT: Students of the Round table companies president updated his twitter again with more information on sales: "media create doesn't include amazon sales in it's calculations , so the numbers are not correct, for 360 software Internet sales are main. think of the sales of games as being double what is reported, 50% of students of the round table sales came from amazon"
しかし、出回るソフト販売本数って随分違うよなぁ。あるメーカーさんも本数が倍違ってたし（10万本も違う）(＇∞＇
He's heard of examples from other makers where sales have been off by more then double(100,000 copies) what was reported.
I cannot see Capcom doing many Exclusive games handheld wise this gen at least when it comes to games that will use MT framework. Its just far too easy to multiplatform that.
Custom Engine games maybe but I think Capcom is going to milk MT Mobile for all its worth.
Nintendo plans for 1.5 million 3DS to be in the hands of Japanese gamers within the next month and a half. The lead the 3DS gets will be totally depending on how fast they have the production lines at. They could theoretically probably get a 4 million+ lead if they have production capabilities to do it.
Custom Engine games maybe but I think Capcom is going to milk MT Mobile for all its worth.
Nintendo plans for 1.5 million 3DS to be in the hands of Japanese gamers within the next month and a half. The lead the 3DS gets will be totally depending on how fast they have the production lines at. They could theoretically probably get a 4 million+ lead if they have production capabilities to do it.
AranhaHunter
Banned
Baki said:
Anecdotally speaking, all dudebro friends I have in real life (i.e. only buy COD, maybe another shooter, Madden, NBA) already made their choice with their handheld and it's usually the iphone, a couple with the android. They usually don't even play games on it though unless it's free or pirated. Sad, but true.
Smiles and Cries
Member
the wildcard for the NGP is the hackers with Sony being lawsuit happy lately some might take that as a challenge to really open the NGP wide
it may help sales but hurt software support
yeah very interesting stuff ahead this year
it may help sales but hurt software support
yeah very interesting stuff ahead this year
Isn't the main attraction that developers can basically make a PS3/360 title (which would still sell in the West), and port it to the NGP with little effort? Since portables are the big thing in Japan, I'd assume that the NGP will be more popular than PS3, given the same lineup.duckroll said:
Also, it seems Sony is involving developers directly in the design of NGP, which is a pretty big step. Blogs yesterday indicated a lot of PlayStation love in Japan's third parties.
Smiles and Cries
Member
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
This is nothing Sales-Age has not known for years now we still make due with what we have we love the charts - if your game sells a ton it matters little but sub 20k is not really important to us is it?
cj_iwakura
Member
Doesn't Catherine count as a next-week release?
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
Smiles and Cries said:
I know we know how the trackers work, but it's extremly intriguing to hear actual concrete numbers like this from a developer.
I think I see why people say every week is so boring now, I'm I the only one here who cares about sales of niche games?
duckroll said:
Titles like MHP, God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable, as well as Birth by Sleep and Peace Walker have one thing in common: they weren't possible to make on the DS in the form they eventually were released to. That doesn't apply with the next generation handheld war. The 3DS can certainly host competent renditions of MHP, GE and PSP, and is already receiving real entries in the MGS, KH and RE series that look and play well. Unless Japanese publishers decide that their future handheld games must sport HD visuals and the advanced gameplay engines that go with them (an idea I find flawed for many reasons), then there's nothing stopping the 3DS from gaining those crucial third party franchises that made the PSP a success. Meanwhile, Sony still won't have Mario and Pokemon, the two biggest handheld franchises ever, and if SE continues the tradition with DQ, then DQXI goes to 3DS as well.
Smiles and Cries
Member
3DS shipment for Japan this fiscal year (through March 31)
- 1.5 million
I wonder if these numbers can change with a little more push and less people sneaking things from the production lines lol
+200,000 would be nice but if they already set the fiscal year data can they change it last minute? March 31st is not that far away though
I would be nice if every dev would just get on Twitter every week and brag about the sales not counted
We always hear about Amazon or TRU not being counted. It would be great to have true numbers for a change even the smaller games would be nice to have instead of just vague estimates for the top 10
- 1.5 million
I wonder if these numbers can change with a little more push and less people sneaking things from the production lines lol
+200,000 would be nice but if they already set the fiscal year data can they change it last minute? March 31st is not that far away though
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
I would be nice if every dev would just get on Twitter every week and brag about the sales not counted
We always hear about Amazon or TRU not being counted. It would be great to have true numbers for a change even the smaller games would be nice to have instead of just vague estimates for the top 10