I totally agree with you. The cause is the mobile gaming, not the lack of new ip's.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2014 (Mar 17 - Mar 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I totally agree with you. The cause is the mobile gaming, not the lack of new ip's.
SwiftDeath
Member
You know I always read your posts and find it odd that the PS4 is "selling out" at some stores still. Guess Sony is sending all of 10 units to Japan at a time?
Next weeks numbers should be closer to the baseline going forward
Well Sony can't expect much from Japanese PS4 market now and they already know it. Also Bamco's CEO (also head of CESA) stated that he is expecting to sell 350-500K PS4's through March.
Every other unit Sony makes are currently shipped to market outside of Japan IMO.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yes that's what I think is happening as well. Sony isn't prioritizing stock for Japan as the interest isn't high enough.
Although I've also read from another poster on here that stores in Japan often don't have much space for holding stock so perhaps it's just regular turnover and the stores only ever get in a small amount at a time
1st Course
Member
Japans consumption tax The big squeeze
Japan steps off the tax cliff Tuesday Can it survive?
Tax hike may push Japan shoppers online: Rakuten CEO
Japan Prepares for First Tax Hike in 17 Years - Will it Crush USD/JPY?
Japan prices rise for ninth month ahead of tax increase
Economists expect consumer spending to drop.
Japan steps off the tax cliff Tuesday Can it survive?
Tax hike may push Japan shoppers online: Rakuten CEO
Japan Prepares for First Tax Hike in 17 Years - Will it Crush USD/JPY?
Japan prices rise for ninth month ahead of tax increase
Economists expect consumer spending to drop.
『ドラゴンクエストX　目覚めし五つの種族　オンライン』国内累計売上本数100万本を突破！有難う御座います。とはいえ、これは通過点でしかないので、Yah oo!ゲーム版と合わせての発表としました。目指すは家庭用ゲームでRPGというジャンルを確立させたDQ（１）の本数です。 #DQ10
Basically yes, but he doesn't mention the platforms explicitly. He says they consider this a milestone and not the end result, which he announces together with the new yahoo version (you can play the PC version with a yahoo account now). Their ultimate goal is to sell as many copies as the original DQ which established RPGs as a genre on consoles.
I like that their expectation is basically in line with my own from back before it released.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
3m is probably likely this year for the 3DS.
12 weeks of 3DS sales = 633,696
If it were to sell at the exact same pace for 40 more weeks (which it's going to get a boost during the holidays)
52 weeks of 3DS sales at the current pace = 633,696/12*52 = 2,746,016.
Predicting what will happen in 2015 and 2016 is hard. No one is good at predicting that kind of stuff at all.
Vita in comparison:
12 weeks of Vita sales = 356.055
52 weeks of Vita sales at current pace = 1,542,905
12 weeks of 3DS sales = 633,696
If it were to sell at the exact same pace for 40 more weeks (which it's going to get a boost during the holidays)
52 weeks of 3DS sales at the current pace = 633,696/12*52 = 2,746,016.
Predicting what will happen in 2015 and 2016 is hard. No one is good at predicting that kind of stuff at all.
Vita in comparison:
12 weeks of Vita sales = 356.055
52 weeks of Vita sales at current pace = 1,542,905
Hero of Legend
Member
http://gamershour.com/blog-entry-6699.html
There's talk about Metal Max 4 for 3DS (it's been out for a while), going by Google Translate, it seems to talk about sales and MAYBE the future? Anyone able to summarize accurately?
There's talk about Metal Max 4 for 3DS (it's been out for a while), going by Google Translate, it seems to talk about sales and MAYBE the future? Anyone able to summarize accurately?
shinra-bansho
Member
It's hard to make definitive numbers predictions.
It's not hard to see significant trends that are acting against any rise in sales and make a decline more likely. The rise of mobile and apparent saturation leading to a significant decline so far this year. These factors aren't likely to go away next year or the year after.
We're probably looking at an eventual LTD of somewhere in the realm of 20M, give or take a few million. Which means we're probably looking at a combined decline of something like 20M units from the NDS/PSP to the 3DS/PSV in the Japanese market.
I think thats an accurate projection, but the more important number is software, and there will be a much larger decline on that front.
metalslimer
Member
Combine that with the loss we see from the Wii U and maybe even the PS4 and this generation (3DS,PSV, Wii U, PS4, One?) is going to be significantly down. It's quite amazing how fast the gaming landscape has changed.
BishopLamont
Banned
All major platform holders are at fault, not just because of smartphones, we really needed a Wii/DS sized phenomenon this gen to capture the casuals, sadly these success are coming from mobiles for the most part.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
WiiU will be down form Wii
PSV has shown a severe decline
3DS has shown a massive decline
Really the only console that I has a chance of not showing a decline is the PS4. Well thats my opinion/prediction and it will do better than the PS3 in the long run.
I honestly don't see how the PS4 could do better than the PS3.
Yoy are not the only.
Funny how DS->3DS is massive and PSP->PSV is severe.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Fair enough. We had this conversation numerous times and its pointless to have it now at this moment in time. Well we will see what happens anyway
3Ds had not experienced a severe decline. Should end up at a 30% decline which is not severe but its 12 or so million units so its massive.
PSV's decline was 70% and that is very severe. Its also massive as well.
Canis lupus
Member
I don't think the 3DS will reach 20 million.
Sammy Samusu
Member
lol?
Why not ?
If the 3DS successor is released by the end of 2015, and sales keep up with those 30k/week, 3DS could fell short of 20M by a few thousands units.
I don't think it'll happen, but it's not impossible
Fair enough. We had this conversation numerous times and its pointless to have it now at this moment in time. Well we will see what happens anyway
3Ds had not experienced a severe decline. Should end up at a 30% decline which is not severe but its 12 or so million units so its massive.
PSV's decline was 70% and that is very severe. Its also massive as well.
I think he was trying to make you seem like a fanboy but obviously you all view the words massive and severe differently.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Depends entirely on this year and when the successor is released. If 3DS did 2.5 million this year and the successor is released next year it won't for instance.
Yeah for me massive is bigger than severe lol
Canis lupus
Member
YoY drop from last year is massive. I anticipate a harder drop next year, a successor by late 2015/early 2016.
3DS is already at 15M and should at least be around 18M at the end of the year. To think it will not do 20M ltd is only under the assumption it will be replaced in 2015 and will sell shit in fall 2015. I believe there's more chance to have a new 3DS model than a new handheld console in the foreseeable future. Nintendo will try to extend the 3DS lifetime as much as possible. Games sell well on the thing.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
Even further than it has? Oh the joy.
Yeah, no.
theprodigy
Member
sörine;106206125 said:
well, I don't think anyone is going to debate this point
Graphics Horse
Member
Which part are you yeah noing at?
Nintendo systems seem to get dropped in Japan as soon as a successor is announced.
michaelius
Banned
No succesor for 2015 will be final blow to viability of handhelds as gaming platforms.
If we interpret "harder drop next year" as 50%+ from where it is now then yeah, I think it's unlikely to be doing 10-15k all of 2015.
I don't think it's ridiculous to point out the system is on a notable downward slope worldwide, already low cost, and has a lot of major software to boot, so replacement is usually not an unreasonable prediction.
That said Nintendo is going after QoL and supporting the Wii U, so risking critical damage to their handheld business to do that might be part of the price they decided to pay.
Certainly sitting on their hands with the Wii did the Wii U no favors and Sony didn't have any more luck with letting the PSP decay.
I don't think it's ridiculous to point out the system is on a notable downward slope worldwide, already low cost, and has a lot of major software to boot, so replacement is usually not an unreasonable prediction.
That said Nintendo is going after QoL and supporting the Wii U, so risking critical damage to their handheld business to do that might be part of the price they decided to pay.
Certainly sitting on their hands with the Wii did the Wii U no favors and Sony didn't have any more luck with letting the PSP decay.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
It's not only going to do better it's going to save Japan. Wii u flopped because it's an undesirable product but it is no indicater of the state of the home console industry in Japan. You don't believe me ask any Hardcore Sony fan.
Which is what people were basically saying before the launch of the Wii U.
Sorry dude but I can't see this happening unless the VR is a huge success but that's a strech.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
I don't recall Nintendo fans being that delusional claiming the Wii u would save Japan. I'll gladly eat some crow if you can proffer some quotes however
I'm kind of curious to see what they will announce. For focusing on the 3DS it's pretty quiet on the first party front unless I missed a bunch of news.
To me the biggest issue is that the mid tier is vastly smaller now so there really isn't a baseline of moderate interest games coming out on a regular basis and instead so far we basically have some really small titles and a couple of major hits that are few and far between.
It's actually very similar to the Wii U's lineup.
Now, could that change? Yes, but our horizon does not look good so I think I would want to see more concrete evidence than "Studio X said they would make a PS4 game one day."
Sammy Samusu
Member
I didn't post once in that thread, Nintendo consoles are always a flop.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Where exactly does he say the wii u will save Japan because I missed it. I know the Wii u is doing horribly and I've always maintained that the ps4 won't reach ps 3 numbers. I don't think either console will dominate. I think ps4 well come in on top but numbers will decline from last gen
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
in the OP
If the WiiU performed anything like the NES it would definitely save console gaming in Japan.
Even if 4DS comes at holidays 2015 and Nintendo anounces it at E3 2015 3DS won't disappear at that moment. DS was very alive in 2010, I don't get get where this thing that 3DS suddenly dies next year comes from.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
I guess dominate and save mean different things to us. I don't think anything is saving Japan not even the 2nd coming of Christ
Graphics Horse
Member
DS was very alive in 2010, yet the PSP started outselling it. The year after, it dropped by over 75%
I don't see how that contradicts what I said.
theprodigy
Member
yes, but the 3DS also came out early in 2011, and I doubt the next handheld is coming in spring 2015
Graphics Horse
Member
You interpreted my word 'drop' as 'disappear'. I'm not contradicting what you said because it was more hyperbolic than what I said.
It may not be. I think we might hear about it by then though.