The original argument was that 3DS would have a bigger decline in 2015 than 2014, I didn't interpret anything wrong.
And 3DS successor coming in Spring 2015 must have 0,01% chance.
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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2014 (Mar 17 - Mar 23)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
The original argument was that 3DS would have a bigger decline in 2015 than 2014, I didn't interpret anything wrong.
And 3DS successor coming in Spring 2015 must have 0,01% chance.
Yeah, I don't see how Nintendo (or any gaming company/division) would be ready to launch three different products in three successive years and be able to fully support each with the software, marketing, supply, etc. for each. We seen how they struggled to do that with the 3DS/Wii U. We know that the QOL platform is coming first, I don't think they'll immediately switch gears to the 3DS successor right after that.
Graphics Horse
Member
Maybe I'm wrong about the effect being worse because of the 3DS announcement, but it was 30% down in 2010 and 50% down yoy at the point of 3DS releasing. I don't see what's going to halt the sales falling this time around, the mobile threat isn't going away any time soon.
I don't know what the QOL platform is (does anyone?) But I don't imagine it's something that needs a steady stream of software, it would mostly be a self containted 'thing' with maybe firmware updates. But who knows.
We are playing with wrongs right now, the post I quoted talks for 1-1,5M 3DS hw for 2015 if we assume it will do 2,5-3M this year. Either you agree with this or not.
And if they don't that's what I feel is dangerous.
The 3DS has been dropping hard despite Nintendo's best efforts. What will it be selling like in 2016?
New releases {2014.04.03} (tax increase came and nothing comes out)
[PS4] Natural Doctrine # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.538)
[PS4] Natural Doctrine [Limited Edition] <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥8.618)
[PS3] Natural Doctrine <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.538)
[WIU] Just Dance Wii U <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥6.156)
[PSV] Natural Doctrine <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.458)
I didn't see any serious effort from Nintendo this year yet.
[PS4] Natural Doctrine # <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.538)
[PS4] Natural Doctrine [Limited Edition] <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥8.618)
[PS3] Natural Doctrine <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.538)
[WIU] Just Dance Wii U <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥6.156)
[PSV] Natural Doctrine <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.458)
I didn't see any serious effort from Nintendo this year yet.
Graphics Horse
Member
I think this year + next year could add up to less than 2013 if the current situation continues, yes.
If 3DS hits 3M this year, it will break 20M LTD.
I think one of the things that would have to be considered is if there is the potential of a 3DS revision in the future. I don't really see it happening.
There probably will be a price cut this year past august which would make it 2 years since the XL launched. Maybe alongside the launch of MH4G in Fall.
There probably will be a price cut this year past august which would make it 2 years since the XL launched. Maybe alongside the launch of MH4G in Fall.
That's why I'm thinking it was reactionary, and thus they won't have anything to show until late this year at the earlies.
For new games I'm guessing Metroid, Rhythm Heaven, Advance Wars and if we're really lucky another Nintendo made premium Tetris. Other than that it's probably all sequels to franchises already on the system or maybe more console conversions like DKCR and the N64 remakes. Nothing too major I can think of that hasn't already been released, announced (Smash Bros), officially retired (Mother) or deemed a bad fit for handhelds (Pikmin, Wii ____).
Although I sort of wonder how a Nintendo Land game might do on 3DS?
I don't know, I see people predicting PS4 to outsell PS3 in here. I'm not sure if even Vita will outsell PS3 yet?well, I don't think anyone is going to debate this point
Lol I love that thread.
in japan, it's hard to say. i'm trying to think of what possible low-effort releases they could have that wouldn't be huge burdens on them. pokemon gen 3 remake and/or x/y2 (or z) seem like they could happen somewhat soon. majora's mask 3d by grezzo would be another one (but zelda's not that big of a series in japan anymore). there's the frightening pikachu detective thing they've been working on, which should be out next year. intsys has been quiet, even considering their size. advance wars doesn't make sense in the japanese market, but the guys who do fire emblem are probably working on smt x fe with atlus.
elsewhere it may be a little more rosy on the game release front. dqvii, bravely second, and maybe even things like hero bank and youkai watch are candidates for localization within nintendo. they've managed to somehow create a pretty popular system for rpg fans out in the west.
Reasoning is probably that they don't want another Wii to Wii U situation on their hands.
Basically strike while the iron is still lukewarm instead of frigid.
Don't know if this was posted yet, but GI.biz had some info on the growth of the mobile market in Japan vs. Traditional gaming.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-03-28-japanese-smartphone-market-doubled-in-2013
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-03-28-japanese-smartphone-market-doubled-in-2013
SwiftDeath
Member
Smartphone game revenue has doubled since 2012? Welp talent in Japan is either in smartphone gaming or heading there then
i can understand why people on gaf would speculate as such, but i was wondering if it was grounded in any sort of reality.
theprodigy
Member
sörine;106260617 said:
yes, but I'm fairly sure those people aren't exactly predicting +50% or something crazy from PS3 to PS4 here
To note, feature phone revenue is excluded there (they did $2.4 billion in 2012, but I think that dropped like 40% or something this year as people upgraded to smartphones).
They're also adding dedicated hardware revenue to dedicated software revenue on the traditional platform side, while for smartphones it's only game app revenue.
People are speculating based off what they think they should do.
To my knowledge, Nintendo has made zero indication of any such thing, and I make that conceit every time I say they should go as early as possible.
Honestly for all we know they could wait until Fall 2018 or later.
Graphics Horse
Member
They've not said anything about the next hardware except it will be like a brother or sister of the next home console, which doesn't say an awful lot. acknowledging part of their next gen hardware strategy so soon seems unusual though.
I think it's a bit hard to predict when they are going to launch the 3DS successor.
However, one thing is certain: it's all downhill after 2013. They aren't going to top that software output for the rest of the 3DS' life. Hell, it was downhill sales wise after 2012!
What do they really have in store for us when it comes to software in 2014? 2015 and beyond? I have a hard time thinking of anything besides... more Pokemon.
However, one thing is certain: it's all downhill after 2013. They aren't going to top that software output for the rest of the 3DS' life. Hell, it was downhill sales wise after 2012!
What do they really have in store for us when it comes to software in 2014? 2015 and beyond? I have a hard time thinking of anything besides... more Pokemon.
Since many repeat the same, YOY 3DS hw 2013 fell behind 3DS hw 2012 at the last 6 weeks of the year.
Downhill for sales happened at 2013 holidays and later.
ah okay. i saw people throwing the date around so i thought i honestly missed something. 2015 would make more sense than anything later as far as not letting momentum die. i just hope whatever they do next is more traditionally their sort of handheld instead of another psp.
I don't think switching to a successor so early is necessarily a good idea. Since it'd be a new platform, there'd be a sales spike for a little while, but how long can they sustain it before the sales continuously drop? Then what, rush out yet another successor quick? In the West, I think it's just going to get worse, so since the 3DS is sort of established and has a solid library (plus SW sales are decent, especially in Japan, and I think third parties are probably comfortable with it), I'd just ride on it for now instead of starting over again soon.
Obviously they need to come out with a successor sometime, but I don't think rushing a successor is the best solution. I kinda feel people are obsessed with seeing big numbers that they're missing the big picture.
Nintendo is trying to get profitable again, killing off their biggest moneymaker and instead making further losses due to a new system launch is really a very contradicting move. We know that a big part of their loss in 2011 was due to their push to build a 3DS userbase. Right now they have a system that is beeing sold at a profit with a userbase that supports good software sales, 3DS basically dominates the software charts in a regular basis in Japan. And has a userbase that can generate million-sellers, the most the recent million seller beeing Puzzle & Dragons and Yokai-Watch with the potential to become one as well.
Sales aren´t as good as last year so far but still healthy, with options like new colours, price-cuts and a revision in combination with big sellers beeing the most reasonable ways to reignite sales, these are measures that they will take before they even consider a successor. Their priority is to be profitable and software sales by taking advantage of the soon bigger than PS2 userbase in Japan are the best way to achieve this.
Sales aren´t as good as last year so far but still healthy, with options like new colours, price-cuts and a revision in combination with big sellers beeing the most reasonable ways to reignite sales, these are measures that they will take before they even consider a successor. Their priority is to be profitable and software sales by taking advantage of the soon bigger than PS2 userbase in Japan are the best way to achieve this.
If digital goods unaffected, it wil nurture mobile even further as people search for cheaper entertainment solution. The traditional market could collapsed before the mobile bubble burst if this happened.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
PS2 has an LTD of 21.8 million. Soon to be? lol
Sammy Samusu
Member
- MH4G
- PKMN Z
- DQXI
- 2DS
- Price Cut
- Redesign
3DS is doing ok and will continue to for the next few years. Now let's talk about platforms that are truly fucked up.
- PKMN Z
- DQXI
- FFV
- Price Cut
- Redesign
3DS is doing ok and will continue to for the next few years. Now let's talk about platforms that are truly fucked up.
2DS hasn't been announced for Japan and you're kinda reaching with DQXI and FFV. GAF insiders have even suggested that DQ may return to consoles.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Wii U is in the grave and PS4 is at the very least heading in the direction of the cemetery and you think he is the one stretching by thinking DQXI will probably be on the only successful platform in Japan?
I think it's a bit odd to use unannounced games as a plus for a platform, I know that much.
That's fair, but I would call DQXI a virtual certainty at this point.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Where else would it sell 4 million copies?
Mobile.
Me too, but you never know.
Have they given that figure as a sales target?
I was under the impression that DQ was a system seller, so I'd guess it'll sell 4 million copies wherever it lands.
Already been ruled out if I remember rightly.
astrogamer
Member
Haven't we learned that GAF Insiders aren't exactly supposed to be trusted
And you say I'm reaching.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=87799009&postcount=2805
I'm not saying DQXI on 3DS isn't gonna happen, it's just not a good idea to list games that aren't officially announced yet.
3DS was only up YTD for the first 3.5 months of 2013 thanks to the earlier Animal Crossing hardware boost, and then for like 6-7 weeks in October/November thanks to the Monster Hunter 4/Pokemon XY hardware boosts. Most of 2013 was behind 2012, and even with those massive games, 3DS couldn't end the year with positive growth.
A PS4 port of Dragon Quest X would make that true and mean pretty much nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Let's just wait and see then.
And I can't wait for DQX for the PS family, at least we would have a chance of playing it in English.
And I can't wait for DQX for the PS family, at least we would have a chance of playing it in English.
I can do a detailed YOY comparison but if we go there until July 2012 when LL come out they were neck by neck at YTD sales. If Pokemon and Dragon Quest are massive so is the redesign.
Jeez, GAF insiders. PS4 is completely dead in Japan then, nothing has been announced for it.
Sure, put it on Wii U or Vita then, 4m guaranteed.
Honestly dude, you're using 4 games there, 2 of which are unannounced (one of which will probably never be announced). Pokemon Z will not bring any new users X or Y haven't brought already and same goes for MH4G. Now I'll grant you a redesign could work wonders, though.
Use Smash then.
I think it is pretty clear that Dragon Quest will be a handheld/mobile game (3DS most likely). The series doesn't have a huge presence in the west, and S-E has had a lot of success with the series in the past 8 years or so on the DS/3DS. Furthermore, we are not going to see another console pushing 18-22M units in Japan as well did in the 4 generations that Dragon Quest was released on home console.
I think a redesign could slow down the 3DS' decline in Japan for the year, but I don't think it will ultimately make that big a difference. It's too late in the Generation. A DSi quality redesign might boost the 3DS' eventual LTD by 10% or so. The DSi/DSi XL ended up accounting for 25% of DS sales in Japan, and given how quickly the DS Lite died, I think a good portion of those customers would have bought the previous model if they didn't have a better option.
I think a redesign could slow down the 3DS' decline in Japan for the year, but I don't think it will ultimately make that big a difference. It's too late in the Generation. A DSi quality redesign might boost the 3DS' eventual LTD by 10% or so. The DSi/DSi XL ended up accounting for 25% of DS sales in Japan, and given how quickly the DS Lite died, I think a good portion of those customers would have bought the previous model if they didn't have a better option.
That (and DQ11 if exclusive) are the only hardware boosters I see in 3DS line-up.
Genuine question, does anyone keep a tally on what our GAF "Insiders" say and if it has turned out to be truthful? I ask because a quick search for Verendus brings me a claim that Guerrilla was going to unveil their new IP at the PS4 reveal in February of 2013. That didn't happen. In fact, we're more than a year removed from that, and we still haven't seen their new IP. I believe he's also told us about a bunch of far off SCE Japan Studio games, and my favourite, a Final Fantasy VII remake.