So, confirmed then. Wii U will be supply constrained forever from now.
Unprecedented demand!
So, confirmed then. Wii U will be supply constrained forever from now.
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
|System | This Week | Last Week | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
| ALL | 404.000 | 304.000 | 484.000 | 9.394.000 | 11.587.000 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+
I know most core RPGs in Japan have poor legs due to the used market, but this is still amazing at how Fire Emblem's sales halted after a few weeks in Japan while in America it just kept going.
There were over 790K participants in the last Splatfest. Over half the number of copies sold. The retention rate is insane. At this point I'm liking Ryng's prediction of Splatoon hitting 2 million with digital.
3DS Fire Emblem
Tomodachi Life
These are some nice examples of the struggles of the dedicated market in Japan.
Fire Emblem is a series that has to get basically all its sales in approximately the first month in Japan, while it had gigantic, three year long legs in North America.
Tomodachi, a casual title, was able to show better legs in Japan, but still capped off at 40 weeks, whereas it went well beyond that in Europe.
When you have to do so much business up front, especially as a core title, it can be really limiting to the ability of quality driven word of mouth to sell your product in the long term.
These aren't exception cases in the West either. We very frequently see games launch with X million and end up with double that in lifetime sales. Watch Dogs went from 4 to 10 million. Far Cry 3 went from 4.5 million in its first quarter to over 10 million LTD. Borderlands had a modest 1-2 million launch with 1 week of TV ads into over 6 million lifetime. Skyrim went out with 7 million and ended up over 20 million. This is before we even start with games like Stardew Valley launching at 30K copies and ending up over a million (or Terraria starting the same and getting over 12.5 million). Being able to have that kind of scenario is a big boon to the viability of products and game development in general.
I just gave a deeper look at the Fire Emblem graph. That...that means that, starting with 180,000 units the first month, it went to sell not that far from 1,000,000 (800,000+) in US alone. What the, how.
Rip star fox
These are some nice examples of the struggles of the dedicated market in Japan.
Fire Emblem is a series that has to get basically all its sales in approximately the first month in Japan, while it had gigantic, three year long legs in North America.
Tomodachi, a casual title, was able to show better legs in Japan, but still capped off at 40 weeks, whereas it went well beyond that in Europe.
When you have to do so much business up front, especially as a core title, it can be really limiting to the ability of quality driven word of mouth to sell your product in the long term.
My feeling is that this is a fine explanation for volume, but that's not really what I'm addressing with my statement.I don't like this kind of comparisons actually, cause while the market grew up in the west, it's struggling in Japan, so while we compare Japan (120mln people) with the US (500mln people and not counting Canada) and UE (just France + Italy have the same population of Japan and they are not the biggest market in Europe, UK and Germany)
Second, Tomodachi on 3DS did not as weel as it did on DS, while in Europe the DS version never appeared. Also NoE pushed a lot the game, while NoJ didn't do such a great effort.
The market is struggling in Japan, but you don't have to use this comparisons, just check how much hardware sold in the last 10 years, iirc 2015 was the lowest point in the last 20 years.
Reasons ? Mobile expanding and children birth rate very low; the latter is an aspect not considered so much, but it should be mentioned cause the 6-18 y.o. audience has always been important for the market in Japan. Life over there is different from the west and when you grow up you don't have so much time for playing, just considering that the peak during the 2006-2008 was made when the market was expanded by new audience thanks to DS and Wii.
Here is a graph which clearly shows the situation :
So, confirmed then. Wii U will be supply constrained forever from now.
My feeling is that this is a fine explanation for volume, but that's not really what I'm addressing with my statement.
The concern for me in that graph is the sales trends. Core games in Japan are overwhelmingly only selling new copies up front. Monster Hunter is the main breakaway I can think of past the children's title age demographic and I imagine the co-op service game nature of that helps a lot, since everyone needs to hang on to their copies to play together and get the new free content.
Like, sure, Japan is never going to have comparable sales to vastly larger populations, and that's perfectly fine, but that doesn't immediately cause games to sell 90%+ of their volume in the first 5-6 weeks. That's an issue on the distribution and retail sales end.
My feeling is that this is a fine explanation for volume, but that's not really what I'm addressing with my statement.
The concern for me in that graph is the sales trends. Core games in Japan are overwhelmingly only selling new copies up front. Monster Hunter is the main breakaway I can think of past the children's title age demographic and I imagine the co-op service game nature of that helps a lot, since everyone needs to hang on to their copies to play together and get the new free content.
Like, sure, Japan is never going to have comparable sales to vastly larger populations, and that's perfectly fine, but that doesn't immediately cause games to sell 90%+ of their volume in the first 5-6 weeks. That's an issue on the distribution and retail sales end.
Long term sales are made on the used Market in Japan. We can check that, we have the Top 500 for years 2013 and 2014. (And someday we will have 2015 too).
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=874622
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1078514
That makes sense. It's actually probably a pretty good incentive to go in heavily on DLC since you can attempt to monetize those users.
I just gave a deeper look at the Fire Emblem graph. That...that means that, starting with 180,000 units the first month, it went to sell not that far from 1,000,000 (800,000+) in US alone. What the, how.
Splatoon
After 4 weeks
total: 368.000
retail: 310.582
digital: ~58.000
After 22 weeks
total: 905.000
retail: 737.478
digital: ~168.000
After 48 weeks
total: 1.490.000
retail: 1.338.689
digital: ~151.000
I guess we had digital returns
Alright, maybe I'm not reading things right, but something looks off to me. Fire Emblem Fates has shipped .78 million in Japan. Wonderful number and all. And it's probably not counting the alternate Birthright/Conquest path you download, given how their top digital sales are structured. But the chart showing its sales puts it at maybe 600K in Japan. Which is a pretty big difference. I doubt there's 100K copies of Fates sitting on shelves, so what's the cause of the discrepancy?
Alright, maybe I'm not reading things right, but something looks off to me. Fire Emblem Fates has shipped .78 million in Japan. Wonderful number and all. And it's probably not counting the alternate Birthright/Conquest path you download, given how their top digital sales are structured. But the chart showing its sales puts it at maybe 600K in Japan. Which is a pretty big difference. I doubt there's 100K copies of Fates sitting on shelves, so what's the cause of the discrepancy?
#PrayforScaleboundPoor Platinum games. They can't make a commercial hit for shit.
#PrayforScalebound
According to the Nintendo chart, Fates in Japan is about 550,000 lifetime, not 600K.
[PS3] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness - Well, whatever.
This was very expected. It should be around 15k. Really a shame![PS3] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness - Well, whatever.
That seems low for One Piece
[PS3] Star Ocean: Integrity and Faithlessness - Well, whatever.
Alright, maybe I'm not reading things right, but something looks off to me. Fire Emblem Fates has shipped .78 million in Japan. Wonderful number and all. And it's probably not counting the alternate Birthright/Conquest path you download, given how their top digital sales are structured. But the chart showing its sales puts it at maybe 600K in Japan. Which is a pretty big difference. I doubt there's 100K copies of Fates sitting on shelves, so what's the cause of the discrepancy?
We never gonna get a good one piece fighting game 😢
#PrayforScalebound
But I thought that Metal Gear Rising was kind of a hit for them thanks to a combination brand power + popular character on that series + being a good game.
How does losing digital sales even work?
PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2016
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from May 02 to May 29):
[PS4] Uncharted 4: A Thief's End (20 days) -
[PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II (3 days) -
[PS3] Dragon Quest Heroes II (3 days) -
[PSV] Dragon Quest Heroes II (3 days) -