lol well done. Exactly what I thought of.
Are we not allowed to post a link to that?
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Media Create Sales: Week 18, 2013 (Apr 29 - May 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
lol well done. Exactly what I thought of.
Are we not allowed to post a link to that?
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
Did anyone ever compile the prediction results for April??
1-Advertising vita games [which you lot already have on ps3] lead to less ps3 sales
2-It affects it less than PS3, due to PS4 being so much better [I think some people are undermining how big the change will be in a while]
3-Not everyone has to buy everything, like I said, the option for handheld is there, it's not essential, it only adds to it. Bundles will help and I'm sure further pricecuts are planned. PSVita games also become cheaper alternatives to PS4 games.
4-Smarthphone gaming grew, is it still? I don't think so. But it grew SHITLOADS. And smartphones are handheld gaming. This changes peoples attitudes towards gaming in general given the reach it had. It has made people even more bored of current gen due to its convenience. Not everyone, but guess how many gamers have an iOS or Android device capable of gaming and play it. Quite a few I bet. It hasn't grown to its potential as the games, price and marketing haven't been the most it can be - people always say it has no games, and it's missing even notable first patty. Sony not pushing it as much as they should might have some affect on this I'd say.
5-As time goes on, standards will change. We will expect more and more physics features, which will need licensing. We will expect better animation, lighting you name it. Everything will cost. Bigger publishers are going to take even less of the chance. And they have to push it. To separate it from current gen, which is dying.
Handheld gaming is a way out. It allows you to put a decent game with a reasonable budget and charge a reasonable amount, without being compared to other AAA games that outclass it in every way. When it's portable, convenience becomes a big factor, that's why so many played angry birds, because who cares, I'm on a bus, or in my bed, or whatever.
6-PS360 hurt next gen so what does it leave, Wii U, 3DS, Vita. Wii U should get a couple like this, especially with the gamepad, so should 3DS. But the type of games Vita gamers want, they'll get em.
I'm sorry the last thing didn't come across but I did state many times that there will be a phasing out (maybe in edits) and that it would only happen when the people buying games at the moment start buying games next-gen (the majority of the people).
So it will first be multiports, maybe for a while too. Then vita upscales on ps3. Then Ps4 and Vita only. PS3 gives access to a cheap large library, last of us, GT, fifa, cod, wonderbook, puppateer, lbp/netflix player for a family (competing with the Wii U demographic) rather than the hardcores wanting the latest and best again.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
You realise there is this thing Sony has called crossbuy.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
If Sony manages to get GTA and MonsterHunter, the Vita will be alright.
The numbers wouldn't be great, but they would be alright.
Best Case Scenario for 2013:
Killzone, Tearaway, GranTurismo6, AssassinsCreed: RisingPhoenix, Rayman Legends, FIFA14, PES14, WarriorsLair, Minecraft, pricecut for EU/US by the time those releases start coming. Another Uncharted an another GravityRush announced at E3 for the holiday season. MonsterHunter, GTA and GodOfWar announced for 2014.
New model with better shoulder buttons and TV out.
Attractiv Vita-Ps4 bundle; RemotePlay works perfectly. Gaikai streams Ps1, Ps2 and Ps3 games to the Vita.
WorstCase Scenario for 2013:
Killzone and Tearaway turn out mediocre, WarriorsLair canceled, GranTursimo not for Vita, AssassinsCreed: Rising Phoenix 3DS exclusiv, Rayman Legends, FIFA and PES not on Vita, no price cut. Indie hype ends. BENDs Vita project canceled. GravityRush2 Ps4 exclusive., nothing announced for 2014. RemotePlay with Ps4 buggy and useless.
The numbers wouldn't be great, but they would be alright.
Best Case Scenario for 2013:
Killzone, Tearaway, GranTurismo6, AssassinsCreed: RisingPhoenix, Rayman Legends, FIFA14, PES14, WarriorsLair, Minecraft, pricecut for EU/US by the time those releases start coming. Another Uncharted an another GravityRush announced at E3 for the holiday season. MonsterHunter, GTA and GodOfWar announced for 2014.
New model with better shoulder buttons and TV out.
Attractiv Vita-Ps4 bundle; RemotePlay works perfectly. Gaikai streams Ps1, Ps2 and Ps3 games to the Vita.
WorstCase Scenario for 2013:
Killzone and Tearaway turn out mediocre, WarriorsLair canceled, GranTursimo not for Vita, AssassinsCreed: Rising Phoenix 3DS exclusiv, Rayman Legends, FIFA and PES not on Vita, no price cut. Indie hype ends. BENDs Vita project canceled. GravityRush2 Ps4 exclusive., nothing announced for 2014. RemotePlay with Ps4 buggy and useless.
^ That is one awful worst-case scenario, they could start breaking down as well...
It fits in perfectly with Vita cannibalizing PS3 sales (or vice versa) - they know you're only buying one anyway, but thanks I forgot to mention that.
It fits in perfectly with Vita cannibalizing PS3 sales (or vice versa) - they know you're only buying one anyway, but thanks I forgot to mention that.
GTA doesn't in anyway mean that Vita will be okay. GTA will not help in Japan at all, and on top of that while it might cause a small boost it will NOT save it (get it to decent sales month after month) in North America, just as the three PSP games couldn't save that system either.
Also even the smallest chance that Capcom decides to risk Monster Hunter install split, no way they do it until long after MH4 is out and the bulk of sales and hype have noce chance at being stolen by a game that isn't even out.
want a cookie for this thoughtful reply? if you are going to call what i said idiotic atleast back it up to why you think so. i am expecting another smart reply like " i don't need to" or "ain't got no time for that gif". i am giving you ammunition ahead of time just in case you have nothing good.
like i said it is a what if scenario. i like how all of you are taking that what if scenario and trying to make an argument on how it is not possible. i am not saying it will or it will not. i mean who predicted monster hunter would move to 3da after its massive success on psp? i mean they could have easily reused some assets and made the next monster hunter on psp and added a prettier version for vita like god eater 2 is doing and still be fine. maybe they will do a vita/ps3 combo to offset the install base differnce with 3ds and have a better sell ratio in the west with online integration on ps3. all i am saying it is not impossible to make an argument either way. we will see in due time if any of this materializes or if sony is going to just accept vita is dead and get out of the market like a lot of you keep implying.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
GTA wouldn't do shit for Japan, but for the West.
And do you consider the PSP a failure or why do you thing GTA didn't "save" the PSP?
I think Capcom couldn't give two shits about what platform their games are on al long as the sales are good. The reason why Capcom is on the 3DS now is that they wanted to start their new MonsterHunter games and 3DS was there and PsVita wasn't. That was way befor 3DS did well and also way befor Vita did bad. Its also much less work to make a MH on 3DS, its comparable to the MHs on PSP, if it werent for the shadows there'd be no chance to tell MH4 apart from MHP3rd. On the Vita there would be more work to do for Capcom, even if they choose lazy mode and would just upscale it like they did with MH3U on the WiiU.
Tons of people predicited the move to 3DS. Not everyone, some did believe Vita but by know means was Monster Hunter 3DS a real shocker.
Capcom couldn't let Monster Hunter stay on PSP, the platform would die eventually and they needed to tranistion so they did.
This is why Capcom would stay on 3DS, moving to Vita means a tiny user base and throwing away millions of potentail sales they've built up on the user base with Tri G and Monster Hunter 4.
PSP was a failure, it did decently compared to other Hardware, but because of the major issues with priacy and other factors PSP was a total failure in the west. Grand Theft Auto did not change this. It can be argued that Vita won't suffer some of the issues, but it's nearly impossible for a single piece of software to save an entire platform, even more so one who style of play (dedicated handheld) and markets are growing smaller and smaller as time goes by.
Also one thing no one is mentioning is NO brand is a sure hit. Capcom knows they need to be careful with Monster Hunter or they can and will hurt the brand. We've had proof over the last year that even the largest franchises don't always translate into good platform health.
New Super Mario Brothers U, Grand Theft Auto Chinatown Wars, Dragon Quest X MMO, and even Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD+ Wii U Ultimate, Ass Creed Liberation, and COD Declassifed.
Every single one of these games are apart of the biggest franchises we have, and each prove that a brand name alone isn't enough to ensure success. Ass Creed and COD couldn't save Vita, juts as New Super Mario Brothers Wii U and Dragon Quest X couldn't bounce the Wii U back. GTA Chinatown Wars despite every claiming it to be a good game failed on Both platforms.
Just getting Monster Hunter and GTA game doesn't ensure that Vita will be okay at all. They would need to be major investments and right now neither Rockstar/Take Two or Capcom have any reason to do this on top of the issue that they are not in anyway assured to get those investments back on such a risky platform choice.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Lol come on man. I love my Vita to death, its the best gaming handheld ever created (from a tech perspective) but sometimes good things aren't meant to be (see Dreamcast).
The 5 million projection means Sony has no big plans in line for the Vita. Is it possible some 3rd parties decide to put a new game onto the system and it somehow leads to a Monster Hunter PSP level resurgence? Yeah of course it is, but its something that Sony couldn't possibly predict. They have no faith in the longevity of the device and have no interest in spending more resources on big projects for the system.
And really thats the right call. They should just admit the Vita is a failed device and focus everything on the PS4.
Actually I can't remember.
can someone make a thread like make your prediction on what they think will be the fate of the vita? this way we can look back someday when the vita is discontinued and see who was wrong. i have no problem making my prediction and admitting when i am wrong and eat crow. it is just tiring to see week in week out people saying the same things over and over. i guess the same thing can be done for the wii u because those are the two that are dominating these threads nowadays.
Platforms that do badly, regardless of who they are by are always going to be the ones talked about most. So of course Wii U and Vita are the major talking points.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
PSP actually outsold the DS for the most part until the DS lite, the mid section of it's lifetime was most probably the realisation that it wasn't going to outsell the DS but most probably not that'd be discontinued etc.
Sony's initial forecast for FY06 (ending Mar 31/07) for the PSP was 12M. They cut the forecast to 9M halfway through the year, and they finished the year shipping 9.6M units.
StreetsAhead
Member
Clearly waiting for PS3 to take off so PSP graphix would be more relevant.
A gif!
You forgot the fact that the PSP hurt the PS2's sales during those ~2 years.
^ If they heavily advertising psp games over ps2 games, then that would probably hurt their game sales. By that time they were fine though iirc. And once PS3 was out, did PSP sales not go up? Were people finding more need for a portable ps2 of sorts now that the ps3 was out. Not everything applies, but I can deliberately misquote you lot too with pleasure if you'd like.
When you don't get PS3 games anymore, only a few expensive next-gen titles, and your phone games don't control any better over the years. There becomes room for other platforms with plenty of lower budget developers ready. Especially with platforms providing something significantly different at the right price, and with their missing titles.
Did people not feel a change of what they were willing to tolerate on a home console vs a handheld after iOS? I couldn't play indies on PS3 anymore. I know others feel the same way.
Eventually, after so much PC gaming and nothing new console wise, stopped playing PS3 mostly too. Convenience matters (..once you're used to it), and Sony would best be able to benefit of that with the right timed push and really smart advertising.
Thank you. I should have asked earlier but for the 2 years before and after as well? Or a link? Sorry.
They were doing generally well as a company at the time right?
When you don't get PS3 games anymore, only a few expensive next-gen titles, and your phone games don't control any better over the years. There becomes room for other platforms with plenty of lower budget developers ready. Especially with platforms providing something significantly different at the right price, and with their missing titles.
Did people not feel a change of what they were willing to tolerate on a home console vs a handheld after iOS? I couldn't play indies on PS3 anymore. I know others feel the same way.
Eventually, after so much PC gaming and nothing new console wise, stopped playing PS3 mostly too. Convenience matters (..once you're used to it), and Sony would best be able to benefit of that with the right timed push and really smart advertising.
Thank you. I should have asked earlier but for the 2 years before and after as well? Or a link? Sorry.
They were doing generally well as a company at the time right?
They would have done even better if released multiplat, but Japanese software houses still refuse to recognise what British devs have been doing since the 8-bit era (often with licensed Japanese games back then).
Anyway, next gen PS4, X720, PC will all be highly similar architecture, no reason for them not to finally be forced into multiplat development... no excuse not to release most third party games on steam...
As for Vita, at least the recent bump has pushed it into X360 LTD area, it has a future in Japan as a niche platform. No need to discontinue it, many other niche platforms have survived for many more years with similar or lower installed bases than that.
A gif!
You forgot the fact that the PSP hurt the PS2's sales during those ~2 years.
Do you have a link for the video of this gif?
Edit: found it.
You have to go through their financial reports. Here's a link for the FY06 forecast - PDF
Go to Page 7 for the PSP hardware.
It's a little tricky back then though, because that was when Sony was still reporting production shipments instead of the more traditional retail shipments.
In any case, the PSP had 2.97M production shipments in FY04 (ending Mar 31/05). It had 14.06M production shipments in FY05 (ending Mar 31/06). And then they forecast 12M production shipments for FY06 (ending Mar 31/07), and then they reduced that forecast to 9M production shipments for the year. The PSP ended up with 9.6M traditional retail shipments for that year.
Edit - I'd have to go back and double-check the number, but I believe that the actual retail shipments for FY04+FY05 ended up being 14.1M units LTD through Mar 31/06. The production shipments for that timeframe were 17.03M - so it seems like Sony kept 2.5-3M units sitting in their warehouses for most of those first 2-3 years of the PSP lifespan.
Let's say end of next year 3DS/3DS LL is $119.99/$149.99 and VITA get a port of MH4 when 3DS gets MH4G in March 2015 with MH5 announced? are people going to still believe that the VITA is going to sell? now I know this is a what if scenario and people are going to jump on me for saying i am living in fantasy land and this won't happen etc... but you have to admit it is not out of the realm of possibility. this possible scenario is for people that are like so sure that vita is making a comeback.
The point is... anyone can make a what if scenario to support his point but it's fucking pointless. What's more annoying is the people who make the "what if scenario" claims that we would never know he is right or wrong because the "what if scenario" never happened.
Thank you again for the detail. I can't see to find out how to go to the next two years? Did they go up? It seems to have dipped when the PS3 came out.
Also this is sort of the jackpot...
They seemingly wanted to delay pushing those PSP units until the PS2 was closer to done and PS3 was out?
StreetsAhead
Member
Are you a real person?
When it's sitting their already, it becomes a different matter than if they had the choice of selling it easily.
Otherwise, what?
DiscoJer
Member
Two original ones, and a port of the DS game. And the PSP sold something like 77 million units world wide.
I'm not saying GTA will save the Vita, especially in Japan, but the first LCS sold a couple million, I believe. VCS didn't do as well, but it was undercut by LCS being ported to the PS2 a few months later for half the price, so people knew the same would happen to VCS (which it did).
Not to mention easy mass pirating. 11-17 demographic, pirate gardens
StreetsAhead
Member
Maybe they were making more PSPs than they could reasonably sell to retailers. Maybe they were stock piling them to counter the effect of the PS3's manufacturing costs. Maybe the change in financial reporting practices makes it hard to determine. I dunno. Some possibilities.
No. Sony was trying to rip the handheld crown out of Nintendo's hands - they weren't delaying anything based on the timelines of the PS2/PS3. That's just the inventory level that they kept for those first few years of the platform. Based on the sales at the time, that never would have been more than 3-6 months worth of sales, so it wasn't anything worrisome, and it allowed them to keep the manufacturing lines humming without too much slowdown. Having to reduce and then later boost the manufacturing quotas repeatedly adds costs. And a 2-3M inventory isn't a problem for a system that's selling 10-15M units per year.
15 was for 2 years I thought? Seemed like half the inventory in the beginning. There are better times to sell your product sometimes. Wii U is waiting for a push at the end of the year even though they should be pushing now before next-gen.
Either way, there was a dip when the ps3 came out and a rise up again afterwards (I assume...).
What. Unless I'm remembering completely wrong the DS was winning everywhere, even before the Lite. Granted the gap was small enough that thinking it could be overturned wouldn't be crazy, but unless you have numbers to back this up I'm fairly sure the DS was ahead even before it got the Lite.
Could the Vita's continued support have to do with resources being too expensive to be worth shifting? I seem to recall reading something on Andriasang sadface in which Sony talked about creating a dedicated Vita marketing team. Ignoring the risk of saving face, cancelling the Vita would also mean getting rid of this team. The staff would either have to be moved elsewhere or fired (severance costs being an issue in the latter case). On top of that, any property, plant, and equipment dedicated to the production of the Vita would have some costs in being switched over to a different product.
Not sure if it's realistic, but could Sony simply be reducing their Vita budgets, gradually shifting resources and attempting to ride out the console generation? They could eventually exit the dedicated handheld space unceremoniously. I would be surprised if Sony's management is so prideful as to continue completing in the handheld market just so that a rival company doesn't "win". The success of the PSP seems difficult to replicate (because of its popularity as a media player) and smartphone markets are now a bigger threat for dedicated handheld gaming devices.
For any more ragincajun77's, I'll admit that I completely misjudged the lasting power of Soul Sacrifice and the Vita price drop. But I don't think its success was enough to matter in the long run. I don't think Sony believes it is salvageable. They wouldn't be combining their PSP and PSV numbers if they thought they would impress.
I think a reasonable future for Vita is this: one or two first-party titles a year - outsourced or from B studios. Third party titles will consist mostly of niche and otaku stuff that would not be big sellers on other platforms. Sony attempts to incentivize third parties with marketing, but also shifts Vita marketing to cheaper venues. No more television commercials like Soul Sacrifice had.
sadface in which Sony talked about creating a dedicated Vita marketing team. Ignoring the risk of saving face, cancelling the Vita would also mean getting rid of this team. The staff would either have to be moved elsewhere or fired (severance costs being an issue in the latter case). On top of that, any property, plant, and equipment dedicated to the production of the Vita would have some costs in being switched over to a different product.Not sure if it's realistic, but could Sony simply be reducing their Vita budgets, gradually shifting resources and attempting to ride out the console generation? They could eventually exit the dedicated handheld space unceremoniously. I would be surprised if Sony's management is so prideful as to continue completing in the handheld market just so that a rival company doesn't "win". The success of the PSP seems difficult to replicate (because of its popularity as a media player) and smartphone markets are now a bigger threat for dedicated handheld gaming devices.
For any more ragincajun77's, I'll admit that I completely misjudged the lasting power of Soul Sacrifice and the Vita price drop. But I don't think its success was enough to matter in the long run. I don't think Sony believes it is salvageable. They wouldn't be combining their PSP and PSV numbers if they thought they would impress.
I think a reasonable future for Vita is this: one or two first-party titles a year - outsourced or from B studios. Third party titles will consist mostly of niche and otaku stuff that would not be big sellers on other platforms. Sony attempts to incentivize third parties with marketing, but also shifts Vita marketing to cheaper venues. No more television commercials like Soul Sacrifice had.
Well, it was a year + 4 months for Japan, a year + launch week for the US, and not even a full year for Europe.
But no - the dip didn't have anything to do with Sony purposely planning to slow down the PSP in preparation of the PS3 launch. In fact, Sony wasn't even planning for much of a dip at all. They sold 14.1M units to retail in a little more than a year (2/3 regions had more than a year included in that total). They were sitting on 3M of inventory at that time, so they would have likely been planning on pruning that number down somewhat, and their initial production forecast for FY06 was 12M units - which means that they were likely expecting to sell a good 13M units or so that year, which is pretty similar to what they had the previous year.
Well, I can see that you're sticking to your "this is all part of Sony's master plan for Vita" theory - so have at it.
Hey, if it fits.
What else would cause such a significant revision, that I'm still assuming was only temporary.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/05q3_sony.pdf
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2006/060126e.pdf
They were neck and neck WW even though the DS was out first in the US/EU. Pretty sure the DS pulled ahead even before the Lite but obviously that was the catalyst for its sales. So yeah it was accurate to say that PSP outsold the DS early on when they were both out.
Also if the Vita has a dedicated marketing team they should all be fired anyway honestly. Because they've done an atrocious job.
Haven't Sony's Vita forecasts been consistently dropping? How could that possibly be a positive?
StreetsAhead
Member
Because they're secretly waiting until after the PS4 launches for people to become nostalgic about sub-PS3 level graphics and then sell them the Vita on the back of that nostalgia in droves, part of their master plan. Duh.
Does it sound that crazy? PS Vita seems like it will be most useful when people move over to next gen, keeping people off the second hand market and not away from their new PS4 games, while offering cheaper alternatives through the sub-ps3 in your hand, vita.
Next-gen is going to look amazing as the years pass by, mid-tier devs are in trouble now, just imagine in 2 years or so and when games get seriously good.
Let's say you're a father and your child is a student. They take a class and say "I'm definitely going to get 100% on this!"
But they come back with 40%, a failing grade. They apologize, and instead promise that they'll be able to get a 90%.
But they come back with 40%, a failing grade. They apologize, and instead promise that they'll be able to get a 80%.
At what point do you imagine that your child, without more help, will be able to pass the course? Do you believe they have a strategy to improve their grades?
Devil Survivor 2: Break Record's release date has been pushed back from 7/11 to this fall. Reason cited for the delay was to improve the game's quality.
http://www.4gamer.net/games/196/G019655/20130510014/
http://www.4gamer.net/games/196/G019655/20130510014/
The strategy was on the previous pages, the support comes when it's going to help them the most. Like everyone says, there is limited money.
Then it should've come a long time ago.
And yes, your theory sounds crazy and non-realistic.
Yet nothing specific about it?