KillerTravis
Banned
The problem with Vita is that more people need to see the gifs of the same games that run and look better on PS3, right Skyzard?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 18, 2013 (Apr 29 - May 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Father_Brain
Banned
Plausible as a possibility for FY2014, at least, but based on the forecast and what little has been announced for 2013, even that might be optimistic as far as first-party retail software goes.
Let's say you're at an orphanage waiting to be taken home.
Visiting families don't want you, they want the cute kid that's not as athletic, makes friends with easily. Now a new kid's coming. They're better than sports than you and probably make friends more easily too.
Are the families going to start paying attention to you now?
Hey, this game had no texture problems!
Sales fluctuate. Price drops. Software releases. Competition. In this case, Sony's FY06 was the year that the DSLite released. The DS exploded that year, and that seems far more likely a reason for the dip in PSP sales that year, as it took some time for the PSP to find its footing again in the context of a 2nd-place system, when the two systems had been battling for top spot prior to that. The PS3 didn't exactly come flying out of the gate in FY06, so I can't imagine that it had much of an effect at all on the much better selling PSP that year.
Regardless, even during the dip, PSP was still selling 10M per year. Sony expected Vita+PSP to sell 16M last year. They sold 7M. They're expecting 5M this year, which means they're expecting Vita to sell well below 5M for the full year. That's not a plan - that's accepting the current state of the system.
^ That is only for this year though, the launch of the PS4.
expensive to develop vs cheap to develop
competing with tougher AAA franchises vs competing with indies
high cost games vs low cost games
home console vs portable
ties in with vita + ties in with ps4
If you want to talk about PS3, read the previous page comments.
expensive to develop vs cheap to develop
competing with tougher AAA franchises vs competing with indies
high cost games vs low cost games
home console vs portable
ties in with vita + ties in with ps4
If you want to talk about PS3, read the previous page comments.
How can I refute your reasoning, when for weeks, you ignore the facts that are laid out in front of you, not only by users, but by these same charts, and financial briefings?
Sony tried to push the Vita by clustering some games together, Soul Sacrifice included, with a price-cut. The effect was short-lived, even though it seems to have raised the baseline.
But what does Sony gain letting the platform drift off until the PS4 is out and the PS3 stops selling. Why should they start gathering support THEN? They should('ve) start(ed) way earlier than that.
And why would they get support if it's been a downward spiral so far??
Nothing guarantees that once the PS3 is dead the Vita will pick up the slack. People were expecting that with the most likely candidate being the PSP passing the baton, and that didn't happen.
At this stage Sony is probably going to keep it alive with the random content they can gather, and "help" it with cross-play.
I don't know. But at least your reasoning has a tiny bit more thought put into it than that other guy just waiting for (another) price drop and monster hunter.
Edit: Sony will start pushing it (as much as they can) some time during its lifetime. Because releasing just a couple of games is already pushing it compared to what it's getting. And it will probably be in a range of time after PS4 is launched. But that won't mean it's because suddenly it's a better opportunity.
But this year will still have the 3DS and the PS3. Vita does not gain anything. You can compare it to the PS4, but the old stuff aren't going anywhere. The old problems aren't going anywhere. Why will it improve?
The families didn't want you before. Now they have someone else to want that isn't you. You stay an orphan.
Will they use the top screen now.
let's not get crazy
Nekki said:
I suggested that because right now the vita and the ps3's games are competing against eachother. Sony has to rely on exclusives and indies basically at the moment. But eventually the ps vita won't be in competition with the PS3 as the games and focus will be predominantly on next gen. That means that heavily pushing the vita at this point (down the line) would result in more sales then just getting sales that would have been had on the ps3.
If they are saving the biggest push for after ps4's release. The price cut in the west has yet to happen as well. I'm not saying they can leave it forever, nor that they can have the same forecast for the next year unless they did something dodgy like someone mentioned previously. But there haven't been any signs of discontinuation. A low forecast is just that. Who knows, maybe they expect even less PSP sales.
PS3 won't die but it is being re-marketed as a family device competing against the wii u, while ps4 takes focus. That may take a while but everything is in position.
Because companies want you to buy new games, which come on new platforms. I never said it would all change this year. Japan will be even harder but luckily 3ds won't look as good as time passes by and Japan isn't the world, which Sony seems to have recognised with their output so far.
Other children get put up for adoption. You feel bad for neglecting the child you see in a new light - now that he's got his teeth whitened (your shallow that way), who was the foster center for so long that you give him everything and you spit on your other children, except the newest one, which the child is really good at handling and moving about.
So when will it happen? After two years of the 3DS getting blockbuster titles? Three years of the Vita's sales crawling to a more appealing position for publishers? Four years of the PS4 becoming more popular than the PSV ever was? At what point in the future - compared to everything else that is on the market does the Vita look better?
I suppose the Wii U could die. That would make it look better.
Thankfully you're paid enough to support five children.
I don't think you're appreciating the scope of the numbers though. Let's say that 5M forecast is 3.5M Vita + 1.5M PSP. 3.5M for Vita for it's 3rd FY on the market - that's a dead system. And that's what Sony is expecting. They were expecting a healthy, vibrant system when they launched it - that's why they expected 16M Vita+PSP last year. They've now realized they don't have a healthy, vibrant system - and they don't see it becoming one either. They're expecting 3-4M for Vita this year.
So you believe that their plan is to let Vita die this year, and then resurrect it a year from now because PS4 will be on the market. Wouldn't a better plan be to try to keep it alive this year, and then help it grow the following year? Instead of letting it die first, and then trying to resurrect a corpse? Because 3.5M for Vita this year is a horrifically low number, and that's following what was assuredly below 5M for last year as well. That's not a dip, or a period of struggling - that's the equivalent of platform death to be below 5M for two full years in a row.
That's not to say that it absolutely 100% cannot come back - because hey, weird shit happens sometimes. But that's not a thought-out, prepared plan for success.
^ They don't see it growing this year, who can blame them for betting it safe. It takes a while to bring out titles and big announcements are at key dates. They never expected it to be this low to begin with so I assume they were counting on more third-party support. But they are trying not to let it die with the pricedrop, SS, Tearaway, Killzone and all the indies. Killzone being more important than usual as it will likely be the best handheld fps ever.
TGS announcements and then next year's E3 would be ideal of course for bigger announcements. PS4 would have been out by then I think, why not start the change strong, both the vita needs it and so will the PS4.
It's certainly possible the may have really lost faith and given up for a while longer then that, I doubt they will discontinue it though. It just seems like the vita will have a better opportunity as time passes.
TGS announcements and then next year's E3 would be ideal of course for bigger announcements. PS4 would have been out by then I think, why not start the change strong, both the vita needs it and so will the PS4.
It's certainly possible the may have really lost faith and given up for a while longer then that, I doubt they will discontinue it though. It just seems like the vita will have a better opportunity as time passes.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's probably more 3M Vita, 2M PSP.
I imagine post Golden Week PSV and PSP will eventually be pretty close in Japan again.
Meanwhile, I think the PSP is outselling the PSV in Europe by more than the PSV is outselling the PSP in the US.
I imagine post Golden Week PSV and PSP will eventually be pretty close in Japan again.
Meanwhile, I think the PSP is outselling the PSV in Europe by more than the PSV is outselling the PSP in the US.
metalslimer
Member
Killzone, Tearawa, and Soul Sacrifice have all been in development before Vita even launched. Sony has yet to reveal a 1st party game that started development after Vita came out which indiciates that they seemed to have ended most signficant investments in the platform from a first party perspective. When was the last time Sony even announced a retail 1st party game? Last year....
That's kinda hard to do without even knowing if Killzone is any good.
Skyzard, I apologize if I seem condescending. It's not intention. But there's two questions that really itching me now.
1. How much do you expect Killzone for the Vita to sell, based off of previous Killzone entries?
2. What thread are you reading?
^Killzone isn't competing with other PS360 fps titles. It's competing with Vita fps titles, of which, most suck - yet it is supposed to be an fps machine basically due to its second stick. That means, together with a price drop, it should better than it would have done on PS3 with the same userbase.
I've watched the previews, I've seen other handheld fps available, it doesn't seem that difficult to imagine to me.
I've watched the previews, I've seen other handheld fps available, it doesn't seem that difficult to imagine to me.
metalslimer
Member
Soul Sacrifice was announced in May of last year. The best case for Sony at E3 is that they have deals with Activision and Ubisoft for another AC and CoD and they reveal that Bend is working on a new Vita game.
The idea that Killzone is a sign of some huge push to Vita and that it's perceived quality is going to do something is about as laughable as saying that people who see a Wipeout gif will run to the stores.
pieatorium
Member
Over My Dead Body Sequel
People posted they bought a vita due to the gif, I know you dream about it too
. I never said killzone was a sign of coming quality titles to the vita, I said it will have more significance on the vita due to it being an fps and the vita not having many. I also said IT was quality, from what we've seen I can't imagine any sane person would contradict it going to be a damn impressive handheld fps, regardless of the brand. It seems like they think it's a good idea, they're doing something similar with the PS4. Instead of it being on a handheld, it's on next-gen.New Fifa locked would be good, as would GR2. Infamous and GoW announcements at TG2 would be great, hopefully some moneyhats for third parties by then too. Some sort of new motorstorm or GT wouldn't hurt either.
metalslimer
Member
Is that a 1st party game?
Edit: Ah I guess it is.
So that's one retail game in the last 9 months I guess.
Father_Brain
Banned
Re: Vita discontinuation, I'll be more open to the possibility that it's more than a year away when and if they announce first-party exclusive retail software for Q2 2014 or later. As is, based on the current schedule and their forecast, it seems to me like their current plan is to release whatever's announced or less than a year away from completion, and that's that for more-than-token support.
Gamer @ Heart
Member
You know next to knowing about that game except how it looks. Is that what your basing that statement on?
As for the second point, yeah. But it is crazy that they have announced next to nothing new for the system over a year after launch. If E3 rolls around and they have two things to show, is that enough? It is a serious concern.
No there has been a 10minute video and quite a few interviews. How high is the bar for current handheld fps?
It's a concern, I understand. It's not the end of the world though. I would be much happier with some impressive announcements at least by TGS but I'm worried with the PS4 and all. Still, let's see.
Just so we're on the same page, what imagine will happen with this "discontinuation"? I can only assume hardware production ceases, first party support completely ceases. Will third party otaku games and indie digital titles be rejected? Will marketing be completely gone? Will they slip Vita advertisements into PSN?
metalslimer
Member
Well I was more talking about exclusives since Ratchet and Clank(has this come out yet?) and Jax and Daxter was also announced, but this is fine as well. So we have from Sony announced for Vita
Jax and Daxter Collection (PS3/Vita)
Invizimals (PS3/Vita)
Killzone Mercenaries
Tearaway
And there's evidence Bend may be now working on PS4 game with their job listings.
I hear there is something else at e3 according to Shahid. FM said not to get too optimistic before though. Here's hoping it's better at TGS. Is that before the killzone release? They are relying on a heavy indie lineup this year, quite clearly as well as some semi-decent third party, hopefully more.
GR2 is highly suspected to be in the works as well btw. Twitter conversation and since the story is unfinished lol, unless they cancel it, which seems pretty crazy.
GR2 is highly suspected to be in the works as well btw. Twitter conversation and since the story is unfinished lol, unless they cancel it, which seems pretty crazy.
The only reason PS3 and Vita compete is because a large portion of the releases are cross-platform.
Many probably see releasing only on Vita (when it's clear where the bigger audience is) is not a good venture.
Gamer @ Heart
Member
What ever they do announce, i hope they pull a DKR3D on us and have it come out in two months or something similar. Waiting until the holidays for anything major with just Killzone in between will not be pleasant.
^Agreed, last summer was bad enough.
Not just that, they are the top of the line for what is available for that demographic. Once PS4 is out it will be more of a co-operation with the PS vita, with the bigger differences resulting in less cross-platform games. Unless they cancel the vita next year of course.
Not just that, they are the top of the line for what is available for that demographic. Once PS4 is out it will be more of a co-operation with the PS vita, with the bigger differences resulting in less cross-platform games. Unless they cancel the vita next year of course.
Yeah, I'd imagine the split to be closer to 3M-Vita/2M-PSP than 4M-Vita/1M-PSP.
This description from Siliconera right after TGS last year seems to indicate that the game was mentioned as early as sometime in 2011: (Link)
"Famitsu.com report that this sequel was teased at TGS this week. Shoji Masuda, the games director, says that last year he mentioned a sequel to Over My Dead Body. This year, the game has made a little bit of progress so Masuda can show a tiny bit of it."
So the game seems to have at least been in the planning stages before Vita released.
metalslimer
Member
To be honest, if there is Golden Abyss sequel I don't expect it to be Vita exclusive.
Sammy Samusu
Member
And it will also sell less than COD
.And it will also sell less than COD
Maybe not with the price drop in the west. Might get even better bundles. Vita has had more time for exposure, CoD was a disappointment, new one might not come out...etc (hopefully will do alright)
People may have known declassified was bad and still bought it anyway, desperate for a decent handheld fps.
Skyzard, it's like you live in opposite land, lol.
From what we've seen of the PS4, it actually looks to be the other way around.
From what we've seen of the PS4, it actually looks to be the other way around.
There will be more ps4/ps3 cross platform games until there are less and less and there isn't much chance of vita/ps4 cross-platform.
There is no way that Killzone outsells CoD.
They'd stop marketing it, but third-party games would still probably keep coming. I mean, it took until 2007 for Dreamcast to get its final official release.
Sammy Samusu
Member
They bought it because it's COD, and according to CS they are still buying it. Oh and CODs DS were million sellers.
I'm sorry but nobody is here for Killzone, even if it's the best handheld FPS ever (not that hard to achieve).
Only maybe. CoD may inspire killzone sales itself seeing how bad it apparently was anyway.
I'd also like to point out that every game is competing with every other game regardless of platform. Being the best game on one system does not guarantee much if there are things to buy on other systems, especially when the other systems are ones that people already own. (If we're still talking about Killzone spearheading Vita's revival.)
It's not a guarantee but neither are any portable games made for mature gamers on pricier platforms. It makes a lot of sense to do it though.
Killzone won't be a revival...it should keep it alive though.
2014-2015 is year of the Vita, unless Sony lost faith in themselves, which we don't yet clearly know either way.
electroplankton
Banned
All what Skyzard is saying is wishful thinking based on completely unrealistic assumptions, and a distorted view of the world. This appears even clearer when it was Sony itself to state that doesn't care about Vita anymore, through the financial report they shared yesterday.
Leaving the product in the market for one year without much support, and expecting it will comeback later on is pure fantasy. Consumers' perception is being damaged, and it will not change immediately; people don't even know about Vita, and in general it's not viewed as an attractive product (sales speak for themselves, 33k units in the US in March are PSP-numbers during the end of its lifecycle). Expecting a comeback in 2014-2015 is like a sci-fi plot. A product selling so badly in all countries is losing also confidence in retailers, not only consumers. Both must be convinced that the product is valid, and it's a slow process. In the meanwhile, there will be two new platforms, new products taking space on shelves (like Wii Fit U, Disney Infinity, Skylanders, and who knows what else). Once Sony launches PS4, it will busy in promoting it; a platform that will last for at least 6 years in the market; furthermore, it will still have PS3 to take care of, which is an active platform; in the meanwhile, Vita's userbase lose confidence in the platform given the poor line-up.
I must admit that it's pretty sad reading Skyzard convinced that "Tearaway, Killzone and lots of indie" will keep the situation floating. They won't. People won't buy a platform for indie titles; people that bought the platform weren't expecting indie titles. Killzone is an IP that hardly sell more than 2 million units on PS3; how much will it sell on a dead platform? It seems Sony is not even promoting the game, compared to the effort it's putting on first party PS3 titles. And Tearaway won't do big numbers.
In the meanwhile, third parties are completely focusing elsewhere. In handheld gaming, they are relying on mobile and social platforms, and 3DS. Nintendo platform is building a quite good environment for them, in particular in Japan. Why should Capcom move Monster Hunter from 3DS, when it got Nintendo support and big sales there? It doesn't make sense. That's why it's wishful thinking.
Sony already lost faith in the product.
No effort software-wise and low forecast are pretty clear in showing this. And it appears that maybe Sony never had faith in the product, at least the Western side of the company.
Leaving the product in the market for one year without much support, and expecting it will comeback later on is pure fantasy. Consumers' perception is being damaged, and it will not change immediately; people don't even know about Vita, and in general it's not viewed as an attractive product (sales speak for themselves, 33k units in the US in March are PSP-numbers during the end of its lifecycle). Expecting a comeback in 2014-2015 is like a sci-fi plot. A product selling so badly in all countries is losing also confidence in retailers, not only consumers. Both must be convinced that the product is valid, and it's a slow process. In the meanwhile, there will be two new platforms, new products taking space on shelves (like Wii Fit U, Disney Infinity, Skylanders, and who knows what else). Once Sony launches PS4, it will busy in promoting it; a platform that will last for at least 6 years in the market; furthermore, it will still have PS3 to take care of, which is an active platform; in the meanwhile, Vita's userbase lose confidence in the platform given the poor line-up.
I must admit that it's pretty sad reading Skyzard convinced that "Tearaway, Killzone and lots of indie" will keep the situation floating. They won't. People won't buy a platform for indie titles; people that bought the platform weren't expecting indie titles. Killzone is an IP that hardly sell more than 2 million units on PS3; how much will it sell on a dead platform? It seems Sony is not even promoting the game, compared to the effort it's putting on first party PS3 titles. And Tearaway won't do big numbers.
In the meanwhile, third parties are completely focusing elsewhere. In handheld gaming, they are relying on mobile and social platforms, and 3DS. Nintendo platform is building a quite good environment for them, in particular in Japan. Why should Capcom move Monster Hunter from 3DS, when it got Nintendo support and big sales there? It doesn't make sense. That's why it's wishful thinking.
Sony already lost faith in the product.
No effort software-wise and low forecast are pretty clear in showing this. And it appears that maybe Sony never had faith in the product, at least the Western side of the company.
Where are you getting that idea from?