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[hiska-kun]

Famitsu December Digital Sales (Playstation format) from 24th of November to 21st of December:

Minecraft: Vita Edition - 35k
Phantasy Star Nova - 16k
Minecraft: PS3 Edition - 14k
Gundam Breaker 2 (PSV) - 11k
Grand Theft Auto V (PS4) - 10k
Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) - 10k
Guilty Gear Xrd SIGN (PS3) - 7k
Gundam Breaker 2 (PS3) - 7k
Resident Evil HD Remaster (PS3) - 6k

 

[monpiece]

To think Sony lost the opportunity of releasing a physical edition of Minecraft... It could have been their title for holidays.

 

[hiska-kun]

Pre-orders opened for Zelda, Xenoblade 3D Xenoblade X, Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario on Amazon.jp

 

[Mpl90]

Famitsu December Digital Sales (Playstation format) from 24th of November to 21st of December:

Minecraft: Vita Edition - 35k
Phantasy Star Nova - 16k
Minecraft: PS3 Edition - 14k
Gundam Breaker 2 (PSV) - 11k
Grand Theft Auto V (PS4) - 10k
Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) - 10k
Guilty Gear Xrd SIGN (PS3) - 7k
Gundam Breaker 2 (PS3) - 7k
Resident Evil HD Remaster (PS3) - 6k

I suppose this means that, next week, we'll get overall digital and digital + retail charts, right?

Also, trying to combine these numbers with PSN 2014 charts released last week

English translation of the top 20 best selling PSN games in 2014:

PlayStation 3:
1. Minecraft: PlayStation 3 Edition (Mojang)
2. How To Survive (Spike Chunsoft)
3. Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition (Capcom)
4. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Konami)
5. Resident Evil 4 (Capcom)
6. Terraria (Spike Chunsoft)
7. Destiny (Sony Computer Entertainment)
8. Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. Full Boost (Bandai Namco)
9. Okami (Capcom)
10. Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn (Square Enix)
11. rain (Sony Computer Entertainment)
12. Super Robot Wars OG: Dark Prison (Bandai Namco)
13. Castlevania: Harmony of Despair (Konami)
14. Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch (Level-5)
15. Power Pros Baseball 2014 (Konami)
16. Samurai Warriors 4 (Koei Tecmo)
17. Ultra Street Fighter IV (Capcom)
18. Under Night In-Birth Exe: Late (Arc System Works)
19. Diablo III: Reaper of Souls Ultimate Evil Edition (Square Enix)
20. Grand Theft Auto V (Rockstar) > 7,000

PlayStation 4:
1. Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts)
2. FIFA 14 (Electronic Arts)
3. Call of Duty: Ghosts (Square Enix)
4. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Konami)
5. Destiny (Sony Computer Entertainment)
6. Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn (Square Enix)
7. Child of Light (Ubisoft)
8. The Last of Us Remastered (Sony Computer Entertainment)
9. Diablo III: Reaper of Souls Ultimate Evil Edition (Square Enix)
10. Trials Fusion (Ubisoft)
11. Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag (Ubisoft)
12. Dragon Age: Inquisition (Electronic Arts) - 10,000
13. Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition (Koei Tecmo)
14. Grand Theft Auto V (Rockstar) - 10,000
15. Yakuza Ishin! (Sega)
16. Strider (Capcom)
17. Watch Dogs (Ubisoft)
18. Samurai Warriors 4 (Koei Tecmo)
19. inFamous: Second Son (Sony Computer Entertainment)
20. Don’t Starve: Console Edition (Klei)

PlayStation Vita:
1. Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition (Mojang)
2. Terraria (Spike Chunsoft)
3. Freedom Wars (Sony Computer Entertainment)
4. Senran Kagura: Bon Appetit! (Marvelous)
5. Muramasa Rebirth (Marvelous)
6. Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (Bandai Namco)
7. Soul Sacrifice Delta (Sony Computer Entertainment)
8. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F2nd (Sega)
9. Oreshika: Tainted Bloodlines (Sony Computer Entertainment)
10. Persona 4 Golden (Atlus)
11. Super Robot Wars Z3: Time Prison Chapter (Bandai Namco)
12. DanganRonpa 1·2 Reload (Spike Chunsoft)
13. Disgaea 4: A Promise Revisited (Nippon Ichi Software)
14. The Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki (Falcom)
15. Phantasy Star Nova (Sega) - 16,000
16. Steins;Gate (5pb.)
17. Senran Kagura: Shinovi Versus (Marvelous)
18. Phantom Breaker: Battlegrounds (5pb.)
19. Toukiden Kiwami (Koei Tecmo)
20. God Eater 2 (Bandai Namco)

http://www.psnstores.com/2015/01/japans-most-downloaded-psn-releases-in-2014/

 

[Mpl90]

Pre-orders opened for Zelda, Xenoblade 3D Xenoblade X, Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario on Amazon.jp

Just noticed that Zelda has a slightly higher price compared to other first party efforts. Was it the same with Ocarina of Time 3D? Don't remember currently.

Also, good price for Xenoblade 3D, IMHO (4,000 Yen).

 

[BriBri]

Err, don't you read Japanese? I mean you have a site/blog specifically for Japanese 3DS games!

Well my Mii managed to fuck Swapnote Nikki inspite of the language barrier so all is good in the hood.

It just says it includes a download code to play the game on Wii U.

Thanks

What would be the point of this then? Just retail space? Btw, was the last Mario v. DK a retail release in Japan?

That's exactly what Dragon Quest X 3DS is. And Nintendo Pocket Football Club EU.

 

[Aostia]

I don't see the great Wii U schedule at all. 3DS looks good though.

nothing is great, in terms of Wii U (lineup sales wise), imho, but I'd say that compared to last year and compared to what we knew last week this is at least decent:

Wii U:
1/22 - Kirby Rainbow Curse
1/22 - Lego Marvel Superheroes
3/12 - Mario Party 10 + Mario Party 10 amiibo bundle
3/12 - Captain Toad amiibo bundle
4/2 - Rodea Sky Soldier
4/2 - Lego Batman 3
4/29 - Xenoblade X
4/30: Dragon quest X 3.0
May - Splatoon

Kirby imho could be better than last year DK; Mario Party + amiibos bundles could be better than last year's Puyo puyo and Wii Fit; Xenoblade and DQ better than Just dance.
Obviously, entering May things change drastically, because Splatoon will be destroyed by MK8 sales. But speaking about the firts 4 months of the year we could say that it has a better lineup.
Pay attention, I'm not saying it will have better HW performances!
I think that just XBX could generate a decent bunp, but just for the launch week (due to the fact that it covers an empty slot in termf of lineup genre, nothing more), considering how Fatal Frame V was able to "bump" the Wii U HW numbers.

 

[Mpl90]

Well my Mii managed to fuck Swapnote Nikki inspite of the language barrier so all is good in the hood.


Thanks


That's exactly what Dragon Quest X 3DS is. And Nintendo Pocket Football Club EU.

So, each retail SKU contains download codes for both versions, right? Also, it should be 2,800 Yen, isn't it?

 

[hiska-kun]

Just noticed that Zelda has a slightly higher price compared to other first party efforts. Was it the same with Ocarina of Time 3D? Don't remember currently.

Also, good price for Xenoblade 3D, IMHO (4,000 Yen).

Majora's price is 4.700¥ (tax not included).

Xenoblade 3D price is 3.700¥ (tax not included). Cheaper than other Nintendo first party games.
Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario Edition is also cheaper.

 

[L~A]

Majora's price is 4.700¥ (tax not included).

Xenoblade 3D price is 3.700¥ (tax not included). Cheaper than other Nintendo first party games.
Puzzle & Dragons Super Mario Edition is also cheaper.

Oh? Surprised Xenoblade Chronicle 3D is that cheap... Maybe they really want it to help XCX sales. I don't remember Donkey Kong Country Returns being that cheap... was it?

 

[Kresnik258]

Any reason we're expecting it to bomb?

My guesses would be that it hasn't shown up at COMG at all (and the floor is low at the moment - 16 points) and there seems to be very little hype around it.

 

[Chris1964]

I made a list with the medium/important games that will be launched from now until Golden Week. I ignored small releases.
I underlined the ND new games and dates.
Noted also Bloodborne delay that I think it will affect somehow PS4 rebirth.

Week 8 2015 (19th of February)
[PSV] [PS4] God Eater 2: Rage Burst

Week 13 2015 (26 of March)
[PSV] [PS4] Senran Kagura: Estival Versus

I don't expect many things from the famous PS4 rebirth since in reality it is only one strong month starting with DQH but especially for PS4/PSV multiplatforms we should see a much worse ratio for PS4 comparing to PS4/PS3.

 

[Pennywise83]

Given how strong Nintendo is going to be during the first half of 2015, and Summer as well (Fire Emblem can crack 400k and Rhythm Paradise might be another million seller), I wonder what's left for the rest of the year.

 

[Mpl90]

I don't expect many things from the famous PS4 rebirth since in reality it is only one strong month starting with DQH but especially for PS4/PSV multiplatforms we should see a much worse ratio for PS4 comparing to PS4/PS3.

Given the current status of preorders, though, unless there's a far lower pts / sales ratio compared to the current one (COMG), while lower than PS3, the PS4 version of DQH will surely do pretty well. That's going to help. Probably short-term, but it'll finally be air for the console.

But yeah, PS4/PSV ratio for games will probably be worse than PS4/PS3 one. God Eater 2: Rage Burst could be the first major example of this.

 

[hiska-kun]

My guesses would be that it hasn't shown up at COMG at all (and the floor is low at the moment - 16 points) and there seems to be very little hype around it.

Any reason we're expecting it to bomb?

Tsutaya expects the game to rank in the top 10, but Youkai, Smash, MH4G and PKM to be higher.

(That means less than 20k, then).

http://mantan-web.jp/2015/01/13/20150113dog00m200028000c.html

 

[Pennywise83]

Tsutaya expects the game to rank in the top 10, but Youkai, Smash, MH4G and PKM to be higher.

(That means less than 20k, then).

http://mantan-web.jp/2015/01/13/20150113dog00m200028000c.html

The reason though... 3DS got successfully a lot of IPs from PSP. Maybe it's too late, or the audience for this specific IP is not on 3DS. Also, early January is generally a bad timing.

 

[Nirolak]

Given how strong Nintendo is going to be during the first half of 2015, and Summer as well (Fire Emblem can crack 400k and Rhythm Paradise might be another million seller), I wonder what's left for the rest of the year.

They usually try to save at least one bigger title for Fall, though that could conceivably be a Pokemon title.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Well my Mii managed to fuck Swapnote Nikki inspite of the language barrier so all is good in the hood.

 

[Aostia]

They usually try to save at least one bigger title for Fall, though that could conceivably be a Pokemon title.

c'mon, it's obviously the 4DS launch!
No, I'm jokin.

 

[Josh7289]

I wonder which has sold more worldwide, PS Vita or Wii U. It's too bad Sony stopped reporting Vita hardware sales.

 

[Pennywise83]

They usually try to save at least one bigger title for Fall, though that could conceivably be a Pokemon title.

There were rumours saying that Pokémon would have skipped 2015 with a mainline entry; but that might be a choice. Of course, there's still room for a new Mario sport game, a new Luigi game, some weird experiment or a new IP.

 

[Nirolak]

c'mon, it's obviously the 4DS launch!
No, I'm jokin.

Going by previous Nintendo launches I'm kind of expecting the year prior to the 4DS to be completely dead.

There were rumours saying that Pokémon would have skipped 2015 with a mainline entry; but that might be a choice. Of course, there's still room for a new Mario sport game, a new Luigi game, some weird experiment or a new IP.

Right, I'm just thinking that unless they're intending to get the 4DS out in the first half of next year, I'm having trouble thinking of a Fall they just sat out on handheld from a first party perspective.

 

[hiska-kun]

I don't expect many things from the famous PS4 rebirth since in reality it is only one strong month starting with DQH but especially for PS4/PSV multiplatforms we should see a much worse ratio for PS4 comparing to PS4/PS3.

As I said before, I think that Bloodborne's delay already hurted this "rebirth".

Starting with Bloodborne the beginning of February, followed by some multiplat games (some bigger than others), and DQH by the end of February, followed again by some multi and exclusive remakes (Type-0) was a considerably strong line up for at least two months.

But without Bloodborne, february line up just died. Samurai Warriors and God Eater won't sell well on PS4, and the new users that Bloodborne would have moved won't be there until the end of March.
So, that "rebirth" starts now the 26th of February with DQHeroes, we can say that's March already, so will be just one strong month, not two now.

 

[Aostia]

Guys, have you seen the "Post-Vita" topic on Gaf? it seems that the vast majority of people is sure about Sony abandoning the dedicated handheld market, going for a PS Now streaming service on iOS and Android (pushing their Xperia line?)

Is this sentiment shared also among Sales-age users?

If so, do you think that this could turn out to be positive for the next Nintendo handheld at least in terms of consolidate its market against mobile? or do you think that the mobile market and/or the PS environment would subsistute Vita in terms of third party attention? because I've always thought that the PSP launch somehow "helped" Nintendo environment, turning more attention from third parties toward the portable aspect of gaming.

what do you think?

 

[small44]

Guys, have you seen the "Post-Vita" topic on Gaf? it seems that the vast majority of people is sure about Sony abandoning the dedicated handheld market, going for a PS Now streaming service on iOS and Android (pushing their Xperia line?)

Is this sentiment shared also among Sales-age users?

If so, do you think that this could turn out to be positive for the next Nintendo handheld at least in terms of consolidate its market against mobile? or do you think that the mobile market and/or the PS environment would subsistute Vita in terms of third party attention? because I've always thought that the PSP launch somehow "helped" Nintendo environment, turning more attention from third parties toward the portable aspect of gaming.

what do you think?

I think that Sony handheld and Nintendo handheld don't share the same audience so if Sony abandon their handheld it will have 0 effect on Nintendo handheld

 

[extralite]

I think that Sony handheld and Nintendo handheld don't share the same audience so if Sony abandon their handheld it will have 0 effect on Nintendo handheld

So the 4 million+ people buying MH on 3DS are different customers than the 4 million+ on PSP?

 

[Pennywise83]

Guys, have you seen the "Post-Vita" topic on Gaf? it seems that the vast majority of people is sure about Sony abandoning the dedicated handheld market, going for a PS Now streaming service on iOS and Android (pushing their Xperia line?)

Is this sentiment shared also among Sales-age users?

If so, do you think that this could turn out to be positive for the next Nintendo handheld at least in terms of consolidate its market against mobile? or do you think that the mobile market and/or the PS environment would subsistute Vita in terms of third party attention? because I've always thought that the PSP launch somehow "helped" Nintendo environment, turning more attention from third parties toward the portable aspect of gaming.

what do you think?

What helped DS were its touch-screen and the Touch Generation + the right support from Nintendo. It's difficult to say whether Nintendo would be hurt or not by the lack of a direct competitor; to be honest, I don't think PSV has eroded userbase to 3DS, actually it's the opposite (with MH and other games). Also, games like God Eater and Persona portings might still make sense on a traditional console.

 

[small44]

So the 4 million+ people buying MH on 3DS are different customers than the 4 million+ on PSP?

So just because one games sold similarly in 3DS and PSP ,PSP have the same audience as 3DS.

 

[extralite]

So just because one games sold similarly in 3DS and PSP ,PSP have the same audience as 3DS.

At least 4 million, yes. And there were multiplatform releases between 3DS and Vita, further demonstrating the shared audience, even now.

 

[Nirolak]

Guys, have you seen the "Post-Vita" topic on Gaf? it seems that the vast majority of people is sure about Sony abandoning the dedicated handheld market, going for a PS Now streaming service on iOS and Android (pushing their Xperia line?)

Is this sentiment shared also among Sales-age users?

If so, do you think that this could turn out to be positive for the next Nintendo handheld at least in terms of consolidate its market against mobile? or do you think that the mobile market and/or the PS environment would subsistute Vita in terms of third party attention? because I've always thought that the PSP launch somehow "helped" Nintendo environment, turning more attention from third parties toward the portable aspect of gaming.

what do you think?

I'd probably put the odds of a PSP3 at around 10-15% tops.

It's a dead product outside of Japan, it's in a dying product category, Sony has very little in the way of effective first party handheld content, and the previous product was also failing near the end so it's not like there's a strong reason to believe this is a one off failure.

However, Sony announced an $1100 Walkman at CES so obviously there's some level of insanity and flagrant monetary waste going on at the company, so I'm not going to write it off entirely.

As for Nintendo, I think they get some benefit in that developers who want to make a game for a dedicated handheld would have zero other options. However, I would temper that with the feeling that I believe there's a huge amount of overlap between people who own 3DSes and people who own Vitas already, so I would kind of expect it to impact software quite a bit more than hardware as people pick up more software they want on their 4DS than their non-existent PSP3.

 

[Hero of Legend]

I think that Sony handheld and Nintendo handheld don't share the same audience so if Sony abandon their handheld it will have 0 effect on Nintendo handheld

Why? Who's to say most of the Vita audience won't just migrate to the 4DS? Especially if the 4DS does indeed become the home of Vita's developers who wouldn't touch the 4DS if a successor did exist. I can't imagine folks like Gust, NIS, Falcom, and the like only developing on PS4 in this scenario.

4DS would be the cheapest non-mobile platform to make games on and by default the thing will be a big hit once Pokemon, Yo-kai Watch, and Monster Hunter come out. So they will have a huge audience to work with.

I dunno, that's what I think will happen if Sony bows out.

There's also the potential for the Vita to just get an extended lifespan, but how will 3rd-parties feel about that? I think once 4DS comes out, people will want the newest platform and 4DS should be more powerful so right away the superior visuals will be an incentive to draw away the Vita crowd.

 

[Aostia]

I think that Sony handheld and Nintendo handheld don't share the same audience so if Sony abandon their handheld it will have 0 effect on Nintendo handheld

I disagree with this. I think that for example Atlus (who developed games for both Vita and 3DS) could develop Persona 5 golden for 4DS (just to make a random exmaple) if there will be no PSP3. And following this kind of toughts, I'd say that MH5 could be a lock for the 4DS, without a PSP3 on the market. But even KT could continue its portable games from the Musou series just on 3DS, while I wonder if Atelier could end up being exclusive on 4DS in terms of portable ports/spinoffs, and so on and on. And I'm thinkin about projects like the hunting games on Vita, that could be on 3DS (if MH5 will be there and if there will be no PSP3, for example).

What helped DS were its touch-screen and the Touch Generation + the right support from Nintendo. It's difficult to say whether Nintendo would be hurt or not by the lack of a direct competitor; to be honest, I don't think PSV has eroded userbase to 3DS, actually it's the opposite (with MH and other games). Also, games like God Eater and Persona portings might still make sense on a traditional console.

just to be clear: I wasn't saying that DS didn't have its won merits, lol.
I was just wondering if the attention that the PSP undoubtely brought to the portable side of gaming initially could somehow turn away from that segment (going into mobile, or coming back to home consoles- especially sony's ones) if there will be no PSP3

I'd probably put the odds of a PSP3 at around 10-15% tops.

It's a dead product outside of Japan, it's in a dying product category, Sony has very little in the way of effective first party handheld content, and the previous product was also failing near the end so it's not like there's a strong reason to believe this is a one off failure.

However, Sony announced an $1100 Walkman at CES so obviously there's some level of insanity and flagrant monetary waste going on at the company, so I'm not going to write it off entirely.

As for Nintendo, I think they get some benefit in that developers who want to make a game for a dedicated handheld would have zero other options. However, I would temper that with the feeling that I believe there's a huge amount of overlap between people who own 3DSes and people who own Vitas already, so I would kind of expect it to impact software quite a bit more than hardware as people pick up more software they want on their 4DS than their non-existent PSP3.

I agree with that sw-hw statement. My question: do you think there could be more software developed for 4DS than for 3DS, not having a PSP3, despite its sw quote being splitted at least even toward mobile/PS4/5?

 

[phoenix3934]

4DS should be more powerful so right away the superior visuals will be an incentive to draw away the Vita crowd.

Let's not get carried away here, this is Nintendo we're talking about.

 

[Nirolak]

I agree with that sw-hw statement. My question: do you think there could be more software developed for 4DS than for 3DS, not having a PSP3, despite its sw quote being splitted at least even toward mobile/PS4/5?

That's kind of the million dollar question, right?

If the Vita gets removed, do enough developers move over to counteract the notable downward pressure on number of dedicated titles and the transition toward mobile and Asia?

It's not impossible, certainly, but I don't think it's a certainty.

 

[Kresnik258]

The reason though... 3DS got successfully a lot of IPs from PSP. Maybe it's too late, or the audience for this specific IP is not on 3DS. Also, early January is generally a bad timing.

I'm beginning to wonder if the IP has just run its course. It received a lot of entries on PSP in the last gen.

I thought the fact it had a break for a while might've helped it, but it seems not a lot has actually changed in terms of the core game itself.

 

[shinra-bansho]

If so, do you think that this could turn out to be positive for the next Nintendo handheld at least in terms of consolidate its market against mobile? or do you think that the mobile market and/or the PS environment would subsistute Vita in terms of third party attention? because I've always thought that the PSP launch somehow "helped" Nintendo environment, turning more attention from third parties toward the portable aspect of gaming.

what do you think?

The 3DS has already consolidated the dedicated market. If it didn't then it also would have suffered a more severe collapse in the face of mobile. When Sony forgoes the market going forward Nintendo will just absorb whatever remaining market there is that they haven't already taken.

 

[Jigorath]

Nintendo is releasing an f2p Pokemon game for 3DS that works like Candy Crush Saga.

Should be on mobile if they wanted to make some serious dough.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Let's not get carried away here, this is Nintendo we're talking about.

3DS is unarguably more powerful than PSP in every way bar being slightly lower in resolution. Sounds reasonable to me.

 

[Aostia]

That's kind of the million dollar question, right?

If the Vita gets removed, do enough developers move over to counteract the notable downward pressure on number of dedicated titles and the transition toward mobile and Asia?

It's not impossible, certainly, but I don't think it's a certainty.

I agree with you.
Up to now, I'd say that IF there will be no PSP3, its software share could end up being splitted like this

- Mobile: 55%
- PS4/5 environment: 25%
- 4DS: 20%

Just a note: I'm obviously talking about Japanese developed softwares (in the West I think that all the software houses already abandoned the portable side of things, years ago: I'd say that they tried with PSP, being way lighter even on the DS), abd only about portable games (not talking about Resident evil 7 or MGS V, for example, that are games oriented heavily also toward the West, and lock for home consoles); a picture where the PS environment already demonstrated to be able to attract multiplatform games (for PSP/3/Vita/4 thanks to the shared assets/engines/accounts), where Mobile is bigger and bigger every year, but where Nintendo handheld are still very relevant of course.

I'd say that it would be smart for Nintendo to move toward those third party properties that could do a good transition from PSP/Vita to 3DS/4DS with just a "little" push from their side (that could be providing development tools earlier than usual, publishing those games in the West on Nintendo expenses, proposing a similar "shared" environment with their next home console in order to be attractive also in the West, proposing some sort of cross-promotion with their beloved IPs as we saw for some TK game or MH with cameos or whatever they can come up with) in order to be able to keep that 20% I listed above

Btw, this make sens only if a PSP3 will not exist at all, obviously, and I'm still not sure about it.

 

[phoenix3934]

3DS is unarguably more powerful than PSP in every way bar being slightly lower in resolution. Sounds reasonable to me.

Low res and superior visuals are mutually exclusive, I don't think the 4DS or whatever will be more than 480p.

 

[Aostia]

Low res and superior visuals are mutually exclusive, I don't think the 4DS or whatever will be more than 480p.

so definition is THE parameter? I wonder if THE parameter will change, if the resolution will be higher ;p

 

[Trigonometrize.]

There has to come a point when one of these two trackers no longer even care about getting data on Xbox One. If it were to get below a hundred, would they even bother? I mean, there are 125 mil people in this country lol

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think the 4DS will be about the same power as the vita. Best not to expect much more or else the reveal thread will angry place.

Given how strong Nintendo is going to be during the first half of 2015, and Summer as well (Fire Emblem can crack 400k and Rhythm Paradise might be another million seller), I wonder what's left for the rest of the year.

FFTA3 after the smashing success of FFEX.

And a new Mario luigi to boot.

Wait a second, is alpha dream known to be doing anything now?

 

[monpiece]

I believe that both in hardware and software, Vita numbers are negligible in the great scheme, so Nintendo will be at the same place it is nowadays if Sony doesn't make any kind of successor to Vita.

Considering that Sony likely won't exit the handheld market like Sega did in the console market. i.e., through premature discontinuation, Vita will be around for a few years more, and if the market keeps shrinking at the same rate, it is possible that in 2 or 3 years the total handheld market will be the same size as current 3DS market is now (in SW and potential HW sales). Some specific IPs may move to 3DS sucessor, some will go mobile, some will be absorbed by consoles and possibly PC as well (aiming the Western market).

Nintendo benefits will be negligible, in the form of a handful of mid-sized IPs (there is no big IP on Vita), and lots of niche games that don't account for 10% of Vita software and hardware sales, so it will only temporarily pan out the shrinking of Nintendo handheld family maket. Other than that, Nintendo will be on its own to revitalize the handheld market and reverse the contraction, and any specific IPs that were on Vita and will switch to 3DS successor will have no significant impact on its fortunes.

 

[Nirolak]

I agree with you.
Up to now, I'd say that IF there will be no PSP3, its software share could end up being splitted like this

- Mobile: 55%
- PS4/5 environment: 25%
- 4DS: 20%

Just a note: I'm obviously talking about Japanese developed softwares (in the West I think that all the software houses already abandoned the portable side of things, years ago: I'd say that they tried with PSP, being way lighter even on the DS), abd only about portable games (not talking about Resident evil 7 or MGS V, for example, that are games oriented heavily also toward the West, and lock for home consoles); a picture where the PS environment already demonstrated to be able to attract multiplatform games (for PSP/3/Vita/4 thanks to the shared assets/engines/accounts), where Mobile is bigger and bigger every year, but where Nintendo handheld are still very relevant of course.

I'd say that it would be smart for Nintendo to move toward those third party properties that could do a good transition from PSP/Vita to 3DS/4DS with just a "little" push from their side (that could be providing development tools earlier than usual, publishing those games in the West on Nintendo expenses, proposing a similar "shared" environment with their next home console in order to be attractive also in the West, proposing some sort of cross-promotion with their beloved IPs as we saw for some TK game or MH with cameos or whatever they can come up with) in order to be able to keep that 20% I listed above

Btw, this make sens only if a PSP3 will not exist at all, obviously, and I'm still not sure about it.

Not to go totally off track, but I think what's more important than any specific percentage of raw title count is investment.

While number of titles is certainly part of that, the other battle to focus on is getting major franchises and major new IP (and important entries in those brands), high quality third party staff working on games for their platform, a large amount of money from the publisher itself going into building a 4DS development pipeline, and strong launch investment around each of these titles as well.

If you manage to keep X% of titles released, but they're notably less important titles, then you end up with the disparity between the 3DS and Vita where the Vita is currently getting more software, but is still leagues behind the 3DS.

Now, for the Vita that was obviously an improvement over "dead platform," but given Nintendo's position, during the transition I think what's more important than courting Falcom, Idea Factory, Nippon Ichi, or the otomi market would be just picking up a couple of key franchises like God Eater, Phantasy Star, and Toukiden or Namco's bigger licensed titles that show up on Vita like Sword Art or whatever is relevant at that point in time.

Like, to put this another way, I don't think it matters where Valhalla Knights shows up, but in Nintendo's ideal world something like SaGa shouldn't have even been considered for Vita, much less being exclusive to it.

Of course, we're ultimately talking about a system where the peak software sales are 400,000 units. There's kind of a question of how much you'd really gain even if you got every last bit of notable software. The bigger focus might just be on retaining the third party franchises they do have that do much, much better, and trying to convince third parties to make more of those for their next system instead of almost every new major effort going to mobile.

 

[SmokyDave]

I love the idea that there's a significant Vita audience to migrate anywhere.

4DS should be more powerful so right away the superior visuals will be an incentive to draw away the Vita crowd.

I don't think Japan works like that. See the success of the 3DS for a start.

 

[monpiece]

Not to go totally off track, but I think what's more important than any specific percentage of raw title count is investment.

While number of titles is certainly part of that, the other battle to focus on is getting major franchises and major new IP (and important entries in those brands), high quality third party staff working on games for their platform, a large amount of money from the publisher itself going into building a 4DS development pipeline, and strong launch investment around each of these titles as well.

If you manage to keep X% of titles released, but they're notably less important titles, then you end up with the disparity between the 3DS and Vita where the Vita is currently getting more software, but is still leagues behind the 3DS.

Now, for the Vita that was obviously an improvement over "dead platform," but given Nintendo's position, during the transition I think what's more important than courting Falcom, Idea Factory, Nippon Ichi, or the otomi market would be just picking up a couple of key franchises like God Eater, Phantasy Star, and Toukiden or Namco's bigger licensed titles that show up on Vita like Sword Art or whatever is relevant at that point in time.

Like, to put this another way, I don't think it matters where Valhalla Knights shows up, but in Nintendo's ideal world something like SaGa shouldn't have even been considered for Vita, much less being exclusive to it.

Of course, we're ultimately talking about a system where the peak software sales are 400,000 units. There's kind of a question of how much you'd really gain even if you got every last bit of notable software. The bigger focus might just be on retaining the third party franchises they do have that do much, much better, and trying to convince third parties to make more of those for their next system instead of almost every new major effort going to mobile.

I agree with everything, except the SaGa part, since it is not a title that will make any difference. Nintendo has already obtained the ideal situation that is not having any third party developer whose games could make a big difference exclusively on the competitor (handhelds only). A game that would represent less than 2% of 3DS software sales for the year is not important for Nintendo. Besides, we are almost sure that Square Enix will put any real big title they have in the cards for handhelds on 3DS.

 

[Eolz]

I love the idea that there's a significant Vita audience to migrate anywhere.

I wouldn't be surprised if some genres keep appearing on Vita after its "death" like the VN for PSP.

 

[Nirolak]

I agree with everything, except the SaGa part, since it is not a title that will make any difference. Nintendo has already obtained the ideal situation that is not having any third party developer whose games could make a big difference exclusively on the competitor (handhelds only). A game that would represent less than 2% of 3DS software sales for the year is not important for Nintendo. Besides, we are almost sure that Square Enix will put any real big title they have in the cards for handhelds on 3DS.

I don't think SaGa will be an especially relevant title either, but I was just trying to think of the "biggest" upcoming Vita title - especially one that wasn't just an expansion pack to an existing one - as an example of things they'd want to keep off the Vita and well, it's hard, haha.

Though I guess that kind of says a lot on its own.

There just really is very little to harvest of note in terms of gaining macro scale change.

 

[Pennywise83]

Yeah, sometimes I feel people overestimate how much PSV games tend to sell. For example, I read often about these otome games, but the best-selling one is at about 35k units, which is really nothing in the grand scheme of things (on PSP there is some otome game that sold more than 100k).