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To be clear, I'm talking about 3DS series specifically. Obviously jump dumping a PS4/Vita game on the system is way more feasible.
Though the switch to the Vita/PS4 topic reminds me of another low budget developer who has seemingly increased their budget going from Vita/PS3 to PS4:
Now I don't imagine it's a tremendous increase, but it's still there.
Kresnik258
Member
Did they?
To be clear, I'm talking about 3DS series specifically. Obviously jump dumping a PS4/Vita game on the system is way more feasible.
Though the switch to the Vita/PS4 topic reminds me of another low budget developer who has seemingly increased their budget going from Vita/PS3 to PS4:
I'm ignorant, so pardon me if I'm wrong but:
even from DS to 3DS there was the need to change the assets, right?
if inside a company/among developers some engine/middleware are already in use, which is the difference in terms of costs/time to re-do the assets using an existing and already-running tool, compared to the previous "jumps"?
I'm not saying that there won't be any consequences, mind you.
Just that probably the fact that Nintendo portables were "behind" their competition, will probably "simply" allow developers to use already common tools to simplify the 3DS to Switch jump
Oh, yes, things like engines should transfer easier. My statement was more about how I would expect the cost of art assets to go up enough between things like SMT4 -> SMT HD and probably even games like Harvest Moon 3DS -> Harvest Moon Switch to see a non-negligible budget increase on these series.
I think that could result in lowered profit (unless they're charging more) if they're not seeing accompanying sales increases.
The counter to SMT4 -> SMT HD would be something like Octopath, which I could plausibly see having the same art asset budget as Bravely Default. However, the question becomes if a game like that still sells 1+ million copies (Bravely did 400K in Japan, 600K abroad).
If it helps, basically I'm musing about the tier of development where cost isn't irrelevant, which quite a few games have because they sell enough that it doesn't matter. If Level-5 spends twice as much on Yokai Watch 4, it's not a relevant issue. A series that did 60-100K an entry? Maybe more of an issue.
I honestly might be mistaken. It might have been a PSP to DS comparison even.
SwitchZilla when?
Since I think it's a good exercise for people to point out when their own predictions are wrong:
Tekken 7's release date was announced as June 2nd with PC/PS4/XBO as the platforms, so I'm wrong on at least three of these.
I still think the other two are possible at a 50%+ chance.
Tekken 7's release date was announced as June 2nd with PC/PS4/XBO as the platforms, so I'm wrong on at least three of these.
I still think the other two are possible at a 50%+ chance.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
These are now the same? T_T
248 Gaist Crusher 7.556 52.469 52.469 0 Capcom 05/12/2013
78 Monster Hunter Stories 154.390 300.606 286.500 14.106 Capcom 08/10/2016
What Wii push?
I brought it up all the time when people expected Monster Hunter Stories to do something.
Actually, the more time passes, the more I think 1-2 Switch could indeed sell much better than most users (me included) thought at first: it certainly surprised me seeing the game so high on different Amazon charts and not just for the pre-order start day; also, I surely wasn't expecting it to be already at 41pts on Comgnet charts. It just needs 14 pts to surpass NintendoLand's final pre-order pts. Mind you: it's a launch, so the higher-than-average pre-orders/sales ratio can play a role here as well, but it's still surprising.
How Switch is actually promoted on Nintendo.com:
Switch and Play.
Freedom to have fun. Wherever. Whenever.
Nintendo Switch is designed to go wherever you do, transforming from home console to portable system in a snap. So you get more time to play the games you love, however you like.
I bolded what I think express the raison d'être behind the Switch concept.
Nintendo named the console to make it immediately appearent how easy and quick it is to set up your gaming session "Wherever, Whenever, However you like".
Well at least Stories is attached to a powerful brand.
Hmmm I'm doubtful personally. The people who have kept their Wii Us and are interested in relatively more hardcore stuff are probably the type to buy a Switch at launch.
You expect it to double Twilight Princess GC?
What Chris said. Yeah, I think Zelda Wii U could sell 100.000 LTD without too much effort.
I wasn't forgetting it but it's pretty much a non factor when talking about the sales of the Switch version, especially for its first month.
Breath of the Wild's Switch numbers will depend on Switch hardware.
Now if we're talking about LTD then yes, people which might jump on Switch only for Christmass will not buy BotW if they already played it on Wii U
So you're expecting a 250k opening at best, when all consoles released the last 6 years (except xbox) sold more than 300k at launch.
PSV, WiiU and PS4, all of them, collapsed after launch and had a horrible first year. I can understand, and you might have a point, if you think that Switch will bomb like these systems on its first year. But all of them sold more than 300k at launch. I don't know why should be different for Switch.
PSV - 324.859
WiiU - 308.142
PS4 - 309.154
You might say that it was holiday season for PSV and WiiU. But seeing how Vita collapsed during week 51, 2011 (Dec 19 - Dec 25) I don't think holiday season had any effect on that system. And of course, PS4 was released in February and still sold >300k with Knack and a multi spin off Yakuza game as potencial games.
The only scenario I see Switch selling less than 300k at launch is if Nintendo doesn't ship enough copies at launch. And after Wii U, Wii and 3DS launches, I don't know why would they ship less than 300k.
Even if you expect Switch to collapse right after launch, I think opening sales shouldn't be different than other launches.
I'm just spit balling here, but I think it's worth discussing if Falcom actually increased their budget for Cold Steel 3, or if it just looks better because increased hardware power allows for it. For example, it was 3 years between Ao no Kiseki from PSP to Cold Steel 1 on Vita/PS3. It will be 3 years between Cold Steel 2 on Vita/PS3 to Cold Steel 3 on PS4. Do you think that Cold Steel 3 definitely costs more to develop compared to Cold Steel 1? Couldn't it be simply the case of the same number of staff given the same amount of time, being able to do more on stronger hardware because of their experience already working on this new framework for the series two entries in a row now?
StereoVsn
Gold Member
Yeah, I don't see how Switch will do much less then that 300K norm unless something goes terribly wrong. It's likely to sell its 300K or perhaps more first week. What happens the following weeks, who knows, will heavily depend on too many factors to predict. Personally I don't think it's going to great till it picks up with perhaps Splatoon and then Mario. DQXI if it releases this year will give it a boost as well.
So for SUPA Bomba to Bomba?^^
I compared it to Nier, more referring on how the demo helped the game, lol. It seems, we're having the same effect with Nioh.
100k for me.^^
We need to account the game itself before counting the increase in development cost. Games that already used low poly texture or sprite with minimal to no animation will be tremendously increased in cost when the developer can no longer apply the same thing on a newer hardware, a process that might have started from scratch. On the other hand, games like MH where the animation is already top notch, it only needs to improve its already existing textures to a better one. It just all speculation unless we've got our hands on development cost of big titles, but I guess games like MH, Ace Attorney, or the current Pokemon wouldn't have their development increased too big.
Looks like Cube Creator 3D has been so successful, Arc System Works is trying to milk it as hard as they can.
Cube Creator DX announced in Famitsu this week. Yes, for 3DS. Not Switch.
. Not surprising since they almost went bankrupt before Cube Creator 3D's JP release, but there's no doubt they have something in the works for the Switch:
http://www.postbulletin.com/news/lo...cle_7ce60c0f-7f52-57aa-a6a9-841009d8ef99.html
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201701/24125430.html
Wonder if there'll be a western release (most likely will).
Cube Creator DX announced in Famitsu this week. Yes, for 3DS. Not Switch.
(Nintendo dropping balls, Switch doomed, yadayada)
http://www.postbulletin.com/news/lo...cle_7ce60c0f-7f52-57aa-a6a9-841009d8ef99.html
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201701/24125430.html
Wonder if there'll be a western release (most likely will).
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201701/24125418.html
Not opening a thread for now, since I wanted to see if this is actually what it should be and if it's worthy to open it.
Basically, I wanted to have a confirmation of what's said here: i.e. that not only this week's number has a 16-pages feature on launch lineup, features of the console and opinions from 45 creators (I'm sure 15 of them have already been covered online, as I've already posted), but that Famitsu's going to have 6 special features (including this one) from now up to the Switch's launch.
Not opening a thread for now, since I wanted to see if this is actually what it should be and if it's worthy to open it.
Basically, I wanted to have a confirmation of what's said here: i.e. that not only this week's number has a 16-pages feature on launch lineup, features of the console and opinions from 45 creators (I'm sure 15 of them have already been covered online, as I've already posted), but that Famitsu's going to have 6 special features (including this one) from now up to the Switch's launch.
Kresnik258
Member
Did Cold Steel 1 not have an increase in budget itself from Ao no Kiseki, given it was their first fully 3D game in the series?
Just to be clear, you're talking about the dev nearly going bankrupt right, not ASW?
https://twitter.com/bk2128/status/823819145787514880
That's what I got from this guy who's usually pretty good with translation news.
Yup. What's interesting is that I don't see the eShop mentioned anywhere.
That's pretty much it, yes. I doubt they'll have anything really groundbreaking, though.
I think we would've heard about it if ASW had almost gone bankrupt and was saved by Cube Creator 3D of all games (so to answer your question: yes).
Yep. Famitsu counting down until Switch launch with six weeks of special features. This week will focus on the features of the Switch, its launch lineup, and interviews about the machine with 45 Japanese video game developers.
I can see the guy in charge of Monster Hunter, the director of SMT4, and... don't know the others.
Hero of Legend
Member
It was Big John who almost went bankrupt, and was saved by Cube Creator 3D, and mainly its Japanese sales performance at that. ASW doing a sequel themselves (who only localized it in Japan) makes a ton of sense.
"Push" wasn't the right word, I suppose. I meant the "brand awarness", I think it was easier for N to launch a Wii successor (initially) than a Wii U one: the perception of "nintendo home console" in the mass market was stronger back in the days, to me.
I'm not so sure that PR words (that the vast majority of the mass market will never hear) is more prominent than actual
- Pricing (Switch price isnt' the price of a handheld device. at least not the price of a successfull one. the 3DS struggled to sell at 25000Yen, for example)
- Software (I'm not sure that Zelda BotW could be seen as a flagship icon of the classic portable gaming in Japan. Like, at all)
I agree: Zelda Wii U will sell "something", boosting the global sales of the title.
Yes I expect the console to sell less than the latest launches did.
Maybe it will sell more than 250k, but let's face it: between a 308k and a 250k, we could easily end in the middle with 270k and would still show some issue for the product, imho (not moving goalposts, Orgen
I still stand with my prediction of 250k)The reasoning is that the console
As a home:
isnt' launching near holidays (unlike the Wii U)
isn't launching with a 2D Mario (that in Japan is way stronger than 3D Zelda)
is launching after the Wii U that hurted the perception of a Nintendo home console of being able to "stay" interesting for awhile (let's call it brand awarness)
Ins't launching with a Wii Sport game, easily understandable looking at a TV advertising (you actually have to PLAY games like 1,2 Switch to test the HD Rumble feature out)
isn't launching with a strong "promised" support as the PS4 one (Nintendo brands will be there, but so far we had the confirmation of just FE coming "from the portable side of things"; the only third party games coming are Minecraft and DQXI, both widly available on other systems too; there is no "Final Fantasy/Resident Evil/Everything we need and want will surely come to this console" situation here)
As a portable:
isn't launching at a "portable" price (even the 3DS didnt', and costed 5000Yen less)
ins't launching with any meaningful portable IP (nor we see any coming in the first 9 months),
So I'm doubtful about the actual picture for the Switch in Japan, especially at launch
man, is hard to have a different opinion compared to yours, GAF ;D
When you predicted 1m for 3DS in 2016 and that only if it got DQ it's very hard.
I think I doubted it being able to reach 2 millions, not it selling just 1 million
but who knows? You are the sales-genius, right?
Yes I expect the console to sell less than the latest launches did.
Maybe it will sell more than 250k, but let's face it: between a 308k and a 250k, we could easily end in the middle with 270k and would still show some issue for the product, imho (not moving goalposts, Orgen
As a portable:
isn't launching at a "portable" price (even the 3DS didnt', and costed 5000Yen less)
ins't launching with any meaningful portable IP (nor we see any coming in the first 9 months),
So I'm doubtful about the actual picture for the Switch in Japan, especially at launch
man, is hard to have a different opinion compared to yours, GAF ;D
First of all we are talking about Japan, talking about the console aspects of the Switch is like talking about the bonus functionality for Japanese dedicated market. Console owners are a small subset of people who actually play games in Japan. It's obviously the Switch is aimed as a dockable Nintendo Tablet - and it's also pretty obvious they are aiming for local multiplayer experiences you can share, all the major handheld titles getting a graphical/functionality upgrade and a launch year that looks to address all the issues they ran into with the 3DS launch.
The 3DS launch was awful and in every conceivable way. Y25,000 and no games for like 6 months. You might scoff at Zelda but it could very well be the first million seller on the system - depending on when exactly Splatoon 2 is launched.
I think we are really missing a major component of the Switch, previously kids had no way to share their 3DS with a friend. Now even the individual joycons provide that option and I think a lot of games aimed at younger kids will have an easy to implement control scheme for local 2/4 player games on the go. The fact that the joycons have 20 hour battery life is also pretty impressive from my point of view. The actual technology of the things can be utilized for a lot of different game concepts. I think once a kid gets the joycon in his possession while playing with a friend outside the whole situation changes. This is clearly a a function of the device best experienced by kids - the size of the tablet ensures it. It might not be a comfortable experience for 30 year old man but for a couple of 10 year old's it would be amazing. The nag factor is going to be unbearable for some parents once this thing is out - especially in Japan. Being able to give it to multiple kids to enjoy and the expansive parental controls does talk about the underlining goal of the device and that's largely to be an entertainment device for multiple people in a household. Meaning long term you might have a few Switches laying around if you have a couple of kids.
People downplay nag factor but it's a thing that happens and kids are definitely the biggest part of the equation for Nintendo when designing the Switch.
I agree with some of Aostia's points but at the same time the conclusions he makes are very hard to support. Is the Switch priced as a home console rather than a portable at this point? Absolutely. Is the Switch a hard sell as the replacement the 3DS now? Yes. But do either of those points mean it is not an attractive product? Nope. Nintendo can sell a successful home console that has a portable function. That's not to say they will automatically succeed or that it will be easy, but I think given what we've seen so far they have a pretty good shot.
Here's how I see it. It's like a company selling shirts and pants. For a period of time their pants weren't selling because the competition was better. But their shirts were really successful. Their shirts continue to be really successful and they're still selling new shirts in the current branding line. They have decided to discontinue their pants brand. Instead their next brand line is a set of shirts and pants. It's more expensive than just their shirts, and it isn't immediately replacing the shirt brand, but depending on how fashionable the two piece sets are in the new brand, it could still take off better than their failed pants brand. It being more expensive than their casual shirts doesn't mean jack shit.
Here's how I see it. It's like a company selling shirts and pants. For a period of time their pants weren't selling because the competition was better. But their shirts were really successful. Their shirts continue to be really successful and they're still selling new shirts in the current branding line. They have decided to discontinue their pants brand. Instead their next brand line is a set of shirts and pants. It's more expensive than just their shirts, and it isn't immediately replacing the shirt brand, but depending on how fashionable the two piece sets are in the new brand, it could still take off better than their failed pants brand. It being more expensive than their casual shirts doesn't mean jack shit.
I think I doubted it being able to reach 2 millions, not it selling just 1 million
but who knows? You are the sales-genius, right?
I have photographic memory.
From this week's feature? Sure. At best, we could get some hints (probably most of them will be vague) for the next future.
But I'm mostly interested in what the next five features will be, especially if there could be further game announcements attached to them. It would kind of remind me of the Vita pre-TGS 2011, when Famitsu had features on games, including new announcements, for four consecutive weeks.
No, even for future features. Not to mean it'll be completely worthless, though, but I'm not getting my hopes up. I'd love to be wrong!
***
Also, confirmed that Cube Creator DX gets a retail release. 2800 Yen, April 27th. So that retail release we discussed a long time ago ended up happening.
http://blog.esuteru.com/archives/20008430.html
So with Cube Creator DX, here's what the 3DS line-up for this year looks like (retail-only, probably missing a couple really minor ones):
February 2nd
[3DS] BoxBoy! Hakozume Box
February 9th
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters Joker 3 Professional
March 2nd
[3DS] Doraemon: Nobita no Nankyoku Kachikochi Dai Bouken
March 16th
[3DS] Manga Yume Debut Monogatari: Sutekina Manga o Egakou
[3DS] Future Card Buddy Fight: Mezase! Buddy Champion!
March 18th
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX (Double Cross)
March 30th
[3DS] Attack on Titan: Shichi Kara no Dasshutsu
[3DS] The Alliance Alive
[3DS] Mario Sports Superstars
April 20th
[3DS] Pro Yakyuu Famista Climax
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia - Limited Edition
April 27th
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X
[3DS] Cube Creator DX
Spring 2017
[3DS] Lady Layton: The Millionaire Ariadone's Conspiracy
July 2017
[3DS] The Snack World
Fall 2017
[New 3DS] Fire Emblem Warriors
2017
[3DS] Ever Oasis
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Sugisarishi Toki o Motomete
[3DS] Pikmin
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3 (Ver. 3.0 update)
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei project
[3DS] Farming Simulator 18
[3DS] Dai Gyakuten Saiban 2?
February 2nd
[3DS] BoxBoy! Hakozume Box
February 9th
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters Joker 3 Professional
March 2nd
[3DS] Doraemon: Nobita no Nankyoku Kachikochi Dai Bouken
March 16th
[3DS] Manga Yume Debut Monogatari: Sutekina Manga o Egakou
[3DS] Future Card Buddy Fight: Mezase! Buddy Champion!
March 18th
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX (Double Cross)
March 30th
[3DS] Attack on Titan: Shichi Kara no Dasshutsu
[3DS] The Alliance Alive
[3DS] Mario Sports Superstars
April 20th
[3DS] Pro Yakyuu Famista Climax
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia - Limited Edition
April 27th
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X
[3DS] Cube Creator DX
Spring 2017
[3DS] Lady Layton: The Millionaire Ariadone's Conspiracy
July 2017
[3DS] The Snack World
Fall 2017
[New 3DS] Fire Emblem Warriors
2017
[3DS] Ever Oasis
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Sugisarishi Toki o Motomete
[3DS] Pikmin
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3 (Ver. 3.0 update)
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei project
[3DS] Farming Simulator 18
[3DS] Dai Gyakuten Saiban 2?