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[KuwabaraTheMan]

Uff, might as well post here too:

But 1&2 was a port of PSP games, so it's not really a great comparison with a brand new game.

Where is SaGa????????????? :/

Probably 31st with only one fewer sale than 30th place!

 

[maxcriden]

Well GTAV has already sold well over a million in Japan between PS3 and PS4 now. How much more of a market could there be? Even if people who like that sort of game might also own a Switch, I think they would have already bought it before.

Ah, that's true. I didn't think of that. I guess I was thinking of a couple different groups, though. First, Japanese players who don't own a PlayStation and usually buy Nintendo systems. And secondly, Western players who don't buy Xbox or PlayStation systems and buy Nintendo systems. I'm curious if there's a significant audience at all in those categories, and then also I suppose of those in both regions who already have the game, if they'd buy it again for portability.

 

[Kresnik258]

But 1&2 was a port of PSP games, so it's not really a great comparison with a brand new game.

And Another Episode was a genre shift/spinoff.

The comparison was about how consistent the sales had been across three entries (one remake; one spinoff; one mainline). That's why I said:

That's hilariously consistent from DanganRonpa on Vita:

!!

 

[duckroll]

[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.770) - 787.233
[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 154.204
[PS4] Grand Theft Auto V # <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.12.11} (¥7.400) - 205.651
[PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 245.418

GTAV totals in Japan so far. Almost 1.4 million. Goddamn.

Probably 31st with only one fewer sale than 30th place!

Thank you my friend. Your words give me strength.

 

[mao2]

Quoting myself from the other thread

Yes, you're right.
http://blog.hokanko-alt.com/archives/50462955.html

&#12539;Nintendo Switch&#12434;&#12393;&#12358;&#35211;&#12427;&#12363;&#12289;&#12463;&#12522;&#12456;&#12452;&#12479;&#12540;30&#21517;&#36229;&#12467;&#12513;&#12531;&#12488;&#29305;&#38598;

 

[Chris1964]

We have confirmation for Sukiyaki short supply at last weeks. Now waiting for the legs it will show and how many of these lost sales will be replenished in the future.

 

[madstarr12]

So much for Final Fantasy, as expected, it dropped significantly. Though, it'll probably outsell it's shipment.....Eventually.....

Too bad for Pokemon, gonna sell less than X/Y, and on a bigger install base.

 

[Raylan]

No, Xbox had 52 units sold in week 3 of 2016. Don't know if it goes any lower, but 75 at least is not even the worst it's been.

It might be possible that these 75 XBOs are just the warranty replacement units and it actually sold 0 units last week.

Spoiler

 

[Raylan]

if it makes you feel a little less nervous, its currently at #1 on Amazon.jp

Not an indicator of overall sales, but it seems to be selling somewhere

110k is a good guess, right?

 

[LordKano]

110k is a good guess, right?

First week ? More like half that.

 

[Celine]

I always thought this series was bigger than 4 million. Is there a Chance it won't sell that? Seems like it should be able to easy.

Kingdom Herats sales LTD (shipment data worldwide):

 

[Liabe Brave]

Probably not, but I'm expecting 100,000 minimum. Anything under is just disappointing.

"Disappointing"?! A 100k first week for Switch would be an unmitigated disaster, much less anything lower. I think Nintendo should be very worried unless it's north of 300k.

 

[Inuhanyou]

The handheld nature of the entrees after 2 really did a number on the sales potential of the franchise, but i guess that is what they get for running after handheld popularity in Japan? GBA, DS, PSP, 3DS

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The handheld nature of the entrees after 2 really did a number on the sales potential of the franchise, but i guess that is what they get for running after handheld popularity in Japan? GBA, DS, PSP, 3DS

Just shows how bad SE was run last gen .
A 5 million IP that started on consoles skip the longest console gen .
Still with the right marketing they should be able to get back close to those numbers.

 

[ethomaz]

SMM 3DS already surpassed FFXV lol

It happened last week in Famitsu.

 

[Celine]

The handheld nature of the entrees after 2 really did a number on the sales potential of the franchise, but i guess that is what they get for running after handheld popularity in Japan? GBA, DS, PSP, 3DS

More than handheld popularity in Japan I think SE sought handheld cheaper development costs.
Also a few of them were outsourced to external developers.

 

[Oregano]

More than handheld popularity in Japan I think SE sought handheld cheaper development costs.
Also a few of them were outsourced to external developers.

...and the ones that weren't were developed by the smaller Osaka team. At the time it was still planned for the core team in Tokyo to make KH3.

 

[DylanEno]

The power of perfection (Aqua) will not be denied. She has claimed her throne.

Also, KH 2.8 outsold 1.5 (128k) and is the first in the collection to claim the #1 spot. Sword Art Online and Super Smash Bros. denied 1.5 and 2.5 of that, respectively.

Umm excuse me use the perfect version of perfection please

rip Leno chin

 

[Fisico]

This should tell you everything about why nintendo is going with an underpowered home console and an overpowered handheld in the Switch.

It makes no sense whatsoever

????
A traditionally portable game series does better on a portable system that has a way bigger install base than the console all the while the portable version sells about as much as the previous entry in the series.

The only thing to gleam from this is that a unified system in this case would have actually been detrimental to the total sales because the home console sales seem to have been the only growth to the series (maybe some people double dipping?)

There was probably next to zero growth thanks to home console, as we've already seen with multiple games across the years, going from portable only to portable/home console only split your audience and doesn't expand it, so no.

I don't see what install base has to do with anything also (PS4 has a more active user base)

 

[Bruno MB]

I will start calculating the results for the yearly prediction league, results won't be pretty haha.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1332955

 

[StereoVsn]

Don't worry, all shall be revealed soon.

Probably not, but I'm expecting 100,000 minimum. Anything under is just disappointing.

Didn't PS4 sell 300K first week? One would expect that Seotch which is realistically going to replace both WiiU and 3DS (eventually) should do better, no?

Unfortunately the price, accessories pricing and lack of games will hamper it since Zelda doesn't sell as well in Japan.

 

[-Setsuna-]

It's interesting you say that with the death of Miiverse and the lack of Miis in the Switch line-up that I'm inclined to believe this may actually be true.

IDK... Ditching a multi-million seller IP like TomoColle would be pretty absurd, even by Nintendo standards.

 

[Dinda]

The power of perfection (Aqua) will not be denied. She has claimed her throne.

Is Aqua the playable Character in this game? I really like her design. On the other side i can't stand the design of Sora(?) So i may actually be interested in this if we play as Aqua.

Also, is this actually a full fledged game?

 

[Shengar]

Did LOZ: Breath of the Waifu, Waifu Emblem and Xenowaifu 2 not already make that clear?

My friend just posted a picture on his Facebook "Reasons to play BotW" that filled with nothing but the girls lol

[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.770) - 787.233
[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.06.26} (¥4.990) - 154.204
[PS4] Grand Theft Auto V # <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2014.12.11} (¥7.400) - 205.651
[PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 245.418

GTAV totals in Japan so far. Almost 1.4 million. Goddamn.



Thank you my friend. Your words give me strength.

The good thing about GTA V selling in Japan that it spawn some hilarious crossover fanarts with character from Touhou and the such.

 

[Astral Dog]

It might. KH3 I'm sure will be the best game in the series and the best game on the platform. Nomura be praised. He's giving us so many things lately.

He is? &#128558;

 

[crinale]

08./13. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 10.066 / 245.418 (+6%)

This is really impressive. I think this budget re-release has now outsold the original PS4 GTAV, after 15 months.

Yeah I agree with this.

 

[rhandino]

Is Aqua the playable Character in this game? I really like her design. On the other side i can't stand the design of Sora(?) So i may actually be interested in this if we play as Aqua.

Also, is this actually a full fledged game?

1) Aqua is the playable character.

2) Lenght of the Aqua Demo Chapter seems to be around 4 hours but it also includes Dream Drop Distance which is kind of meaty.

 

[notaskwid]

Very good sales for a 6000 yen demo with a shit game remaster.

 

[Dinda]

1) Aqua is the playable character.

2) Lenght of the Aqua Demo Chapter seems to be around 4 hours but it also includes Dream Drop Distance which is kind of meaty.

Thanks.
Hm, don't think i'm really interested in Dream Drop Distance, so 4 hours isn't really much for that price. Maybe i pick it up down the line for cheap.

KH 3 will probably be Sora again?

 

[Nightengale]

Hmm, do we have any indication to how GR2's preorder tracking might hint to its opening week sales?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Hmm, do we have any indication to how GR2's preorder tracking might hint to its opening week sales?

01. [PS4] Gravity Rush 2 < 60k (average 55k)

YSO prediction.

 

[DylanEno]

My friend just posted a picture on his Facebook "Reasons to play BotW" that filled with nothing but the girls lol

Wait what did I miss something? There's Zelda and Zora girl... who am I missing?

 

[noobie]

PS4 has a stellar year of content to keep momentum and excitement in the platform going globally. And unlike back in the PS3 days around the same time period, western games are more popular in Japan than ever before.

I expect Horizon to do over 100k easily

First week or lifetime?

 

[Shengar]

Wait what did I miss something? There's Zelda and Zora girl... who am I missing?

Here's the picture in question

 

[DriftingSpirit]

First week or lifetime?

FW

 

[DylanEno]

Here's the picture in question

Oh lol

Ehhhhh

 

[Bruno MB]

Prediction League Year 2016 Results

Congratulations to:

- Jon Carter, for winning by units!
- Ryng_tolu &#10014;, for winning by mean error %!

    BY UNITS                                           BY MEAN ERROR %

    01            Jon Carter         3.051.426         01             Ryng_tolu           39,36%
    02               Xbro            3.546.069         02            Jon Carter           39,53%
    03             Ryng_tolu         3.571.069         03              u_neek             39,63%
    04              u_neek           3.692.151         04            astrogamer           41,40%
    05            astrogamer         3.767.945         05             casiopao            41,84%
    06              Maniel           3.849.707         06               Xbro              43,20%
    07              Asd202           4.041.069         07              Asd202             44,21%
    08             Chris1964         4.055.401         08              Maniel             45,73%
    09               Eolz            4.099.961         09               Eolz              46,45%
    10              horuhe           4.157.807         10              Fisico             47,05%
    11               Orgen           4.194.711         11               Orgen             48,15%
    12               DKHF            4.197.945         12               Akki              48,58%
    13              Fisico           4.373.447         13               DKHF              48,95%
    14          KuwabaraTheMan       4.429.107         14              saichi             49,26%
    15             casiopao          4.437.945         15             Chris1964           49,34%
    16             zeromcd73         4.555.389         16              horuhe             50,98%
    17              saichi           4.665.711         17          KuwabaraTheMan         52,22%
    18              noobie           4.732.941         18              Xenoby             52,61%
    19           Psycho_Mantis       4.753.625         19            madstarr12           52,73%
    20           DarkLordMalik       4.754.174         20              noobie             52,74%
    21            madstarr12         4.783.621         21             jjonez18            55,51%
    22               Akki            4.791.065         22             Bruno MB            55,98%
    23             Bruno MB          4.803.625         23             zeromcd73           56,19%
    24              Xenoby           5.122.945         24           Psycho_Mantis         63,16%
    25             jjonez18          5.149.707         25           DarkLordMalik         63,66%

                                               Famitsu  Ryng_tolu   noobie    Maniel   jjonez18 madstarr12   DKHF   Jon Carter  u_neek    Fisico    Asd202     Xbro   astrogamer  Orgen    casiopao Chris1964    Eolz   KuwabaraTh Bruno MB
         [3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware          1.874.457 1.800.000 2.100.000 1.900.000 2.050.000 1.750.000 1.900.000 1.776.543 1.900.000 1.843.852 1.600.000 1.700.000 1.980.000 1.885.000 1.900.000 1.789.012 1.998.000 1.890.000 1.700.000
         [PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware         1.790.883 1.500.000 1.820.000 1.700.000 1.650.000 1.670.000 1.800.000 1.678.910 1.500.000 1.687.543 1.500.000 1.600.000 1.850.000 1.550.000 1.850.000 1.567.890 1.722.000 1.450.000 1.650.000
       [PSV] PlayStation Vita Hardware         865.002   850.000   950.000   900.000   900.000   945.000   850.000   987.654   900.000   912.345   850.000   800.000   850.000   770.000   800.000   789.012   876.000   900.000   800.000
        [WIU] Nintendo Wii U Hardware          336.151   500.000   780.000   550.000   400.000   490.000   450.000   567.891   400.000   543.210   450.000   500.000   550.000   525.000   450.000   567.890   651.000   800.000   550.000
    [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura     1.397.436 2.450.000 2.575.000 2.750.000 3.250.000 3.300.000 2.800.000 2.234.567 2.300.000 2.850.000 3.000.000 3.000.000 2.750.000 3.150.000 3.450.000 3.210.987 2.753.000 3.257.000 3.300.000
           [3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon           3.246.222 3.150.000 3.450.000 3.300.000 3.750.000 3.250.000 3.500.000 2.789.101 2.500.000 3.654.321 3.200.000 3.200.000 3.540.000 3.470.000 3.640.000 3.456.789 3.853.000 3.329.146 3.550.000
         [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories          286.500  1.750.000 2.320.000 1.700.000 1.500.000 1.750.000 1.600.000 1.234.567 1.300.000 1.812.346 1.500.000 1.250.000 1.750.000 1.530.000 1.850.000 1.234.567 1.632.000 1.795.000 1.500.000
            [PS4] Final Fantasy XV             860.127  1.200.000 1.220.000 1.400.000 1.750.000 1.675.000 1.700.000 1.012.345 1.400.000 1.321.654 1.250.000 1.125.000 1.000.000 1.100.000 1.000.000 1.234.567  747.000   824.000  1.350.000
            [PS4 + PS3] Persona 5              475.281   550.000   650.000   600.000   750.000   595.000   700.000   567.891   550.000   612.345   570.000   550.000   600.000   675.000   500.000   567.890   636.000   562.000   775.000

               TOTAL ABS. DIFF.                         3.571.069 4.732.941 3.849.707 5.149.707 4.783.621 4.197.945 3.051.426 3.692.151 4.373.447 4.041.069 3.546.069 3.767.945 4.194.711 4.437.945 4.055.401 4.099.961 4.429.107 4.803.625
               MEAN ERROR %                               39,36%    52,74%    45,73%    55,51%    52,73%    48,95%    39,53%    39,63%    47,05%    44,21%    43,20%    41,40%    48,15%    41,84%    49,34%    46,45%    52,22%    55,98%

Psycho_ManDarkLordMa  Xenoby     Akki   zeromcd73   saichi    horuhe
1.750.000 1.666.666 2.013.000 1.700.000 2.200.000 1.888.000 1.813.673
1.750.000 1.777.777 1.852.000 1.650.000 2.000.000 1.790.000 1.592.802
 750.000   999.999   722.000   900.000   810.000   793.000   801.559
 600.000   666.666   621.000   500.000   600.000   586.000   639.834
3.250.000 3.555.555 3.321.000 3.300.000 2.890.000 3.250.000 3.036.279
3.250.000 3.333.333 4.089.000 2.900.000 2.900.000 3.850.000 2.969.543
1.250.000 1.111.111 1.623.000 1.850.000 1.250.000 1.735.000 1.464.923
2.000.000 1.555.555 1.230.000 1.150.000 1.550.000 1.185.000 1.084.236
 725.000   777.777   498.000   650.000   685.000   575.000   689.043

4.753.625 4.754.174 5.122.945 4.791.065 4.555.389 4.665.711 4.157.807
  63,16%    63,66%    52,61%    48,58%    56,19%    49,26%    50,98%

                 STATISTICS                   Famitsu   GAF_AVG     OVER     UNDER      MAX       MIN           CLOSEST BY
         [3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware         1.874.457 1.859.750    52%       48%    2.200.000 1.600.000      1.885.000 Orgen
        [PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware         1.790.883 1.686.357    28%       72%    2.000.000 1.450.000     1.790.000 saichi
       [PSV] PlayStation Vita Hardware        865.002   856.263     44%       56%     999.999   722.000        876.000 Eolz
        [WIU] Nintendo Wii U Hardware         336.151   557.540     100%       0%     800.000   400.000      400.000 jjonez18
    [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura    1.397.436 2.999.336    100%       0%    3.555.555 2.234.567   2.234.567 Jon Carter
          [3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon           3.246.222 3.354.969    68%       32%    4.089.000 2.500.000   3.250.000 madstarr12
        [3DS] Monster Hunter Stories          286.500  1.571.701    100%       0%    2.320.000 1.111.111  1.111.111 DarkLordMalik
           [PS4] Final Fantasy XV             860.127  1.282.574    92%        8%    2.000.000  747.000   824.000 KuwabaraTheMan
           [PS4 + PS3] Persona 5              475.281   624.438     100%       0%     777.777   498.000       498.000 Xenoby

 

[Magicpaint]

That's a pretty harsh drop for Pokemon. It should still crawl to 4m, but like X/Y looking likely that it'll also miss 5m mark.

Danganronpa did well. As did KH, considering the value proposition this time around compared to the other collections.

 

[Oxx]

Yokai 3 and Monster Hunter Stories came in a bit short of GAF's expectations.

 

[novabolt]

"Disappointing"?! A 100k first week for Switch would be an unmitigated disaster, much less anything lower. I think Nintendo should be very worried unless it's north of 300k.

Didn't PS4 sell 300K first week? One would expect that Seotch which is realistically going to replace both WiiU and 3DS (eventually) should do better, no?

Unfortunately the price, accessories pricing and lack of games will hamper it since Zelda doesn't sell as well in Japan.

I just can't see Japan suddenly dropping the 3DS for the Switch on the get go. I think it will take some time but more than Nintendo wants to give out. That's why my expectations are low.

 

[Kresnik258]

Prediction League Year 2016 Results

Congrats guys

Shocked how close the GAF averages were to the actually Famitsu hardware numbers for nearly everything except Wii U. Not bad!

Software really screwed you all though

 

[Takao]

The handheld nature of the entrees after 2 really did a number on the sales potential of the franchise, but i guess that is what they get for running after handheld popularity in Japan? GBA, DS, PSP, 3DS

I think the handheld games were more a case of "How do we keep this IP in the public eye while Nomura develops Final Fantasy Versus XIII?" You might remember that the trainwreck currently known as Final Fantasy XV had its roots in the team behind Kingdom Hearts and its sequel. The handheld games were all either outsourced, or made by significantly smaller sister studios. SE Osaka did Birth By Sleep and Dream Drop Distance. They'll now spend at least 4 years on KH3.

 

[Ray Down]

I think the handheld games were more a case of "How do we keep this IP in the public eye while Nomura develops Final Fantasy Versus XIII?" You might remember that the trainwreck currently known as Final Fantasy XV had its roots in the team behind Kingdom Hearts and its sequel. The handheld games were all either outsourced, or made by significantly smaller sister studios. SE Osaka did Birth By Sleep and Dream Drop Distance. They'll now spend at least 4 years on KH3.

Only 4?

 

[Mahonay]

PS4 looks it's finally sticking over there.

 

[BriBri]

IDK... Ditching a multi-million seller IP like TomoColle would be pretty absurd, even by Nintendo standards.

Hopefully you're right but TC:NL is exactly the same as the DS version so I'm unsure who's left to buy the game for a third time (other than me obviously!). Plus the likes of Miitomo have reduced the value of the concept (even if it is just a micro version of what TC offers).

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Prediction League Year 2016 Results

Man, I was the closest on XV and pretty much right there on the 3DS, Vita and Pokemon.

But my Yokai, Monster Hunter and Wii U predictions were terrible.

 

[Bruno MB]

Monster Hunter Stories Results

    BY UNITS                                            BY MEAN ERROR %

    01           DarkLordMalik        824.611           01           DarkLordMalik        287,82%
    02            Jon Carter          948.067           02            Jon Carter          330,91%
    03             Chris1964          948.067           03             Chris1964          330,91%
    04               Xbro             963.500           04               Xbro             336,30%
    05           Psycho_Mantis        963.500           05           Psycho_Mantis        336,30%
    06             zeromcd73          963.500           06             zeromcd73          336,30%
    07              u_neek           1.013.500          07              u_neek            353,75%
    08              horuhe           1.178.423          08              horuhe            411,32%
    09             jjonez18          1.213.500          09             jjonez18           423,56%
    10              Asd202           1.213.500          10              Asd202            423,56%
    11             Bruno MB          1.213.500          11             Bruno MB           423,56%
    12               Orgen           1.243.500          12               Orgen            434,03%
    13               DKHF            1.313.500          13               DKHF             458,46%
    14              Xenoby           1.336.500          14              Xenoby            466,49%
    15               Eolz            1.345.500          15               Eolz             469,63%
    16              Maniel           1.413.500          16              Maniel            493,37%
    17              saichi           1.448.500          17              saichi            505,58%
    18             Ryng_tolu         1.463.500          18             Ryng_tolu          510,82%
    19            madstarr12         1.463.500          19            madstarr12          510,82%
    20            astrogamer         1.463.500          20            astrogamer          510,82%
    21          KuwabaraTheMan       1.508.500          21          KuwabaraTheMan        526,53%
    22              Fisico           1.525.846          22              Fisico            532,58%
    23             casiopao          1.563.500          23             casiopao           545,72%
    24               Akki            1.563.500          24               Akki             545,72%
    25              noobie           2.033.500          25              noobie            709,77%

For the prediction league results the maximum percentage error is capped at 150%.

 

[Ray Down]

Man, I was the closest on XV and pretty much right there on the 3DS, Vita and Pokemon.

But my Yokai, Monster Hunter and Wii U predictions were terrible.

May Pudding give you better betting skills this year.

 

[Dargor]

Hey, didn't notice PS4 had broken the 4M LTD. It really is doing better than PS3!

 

[theprodigy]

software outside of Pokemon was a dumpster fire lol