I think it'll do reasonably well but I don't think it'll outsell Splatoon.
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Media Create Sales: Week 27, 2015 (Jun 29 - Jul 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I think it'll do reasonably well but I don't think it'll outsell Splatoon.
Sakura
Member
Not really sure about Persona 5 outselling it.
I could also see Splatoon doing well during Christmas depending on how popular it still is.
You'd think that but Minecraft is expansive to an almost prohibitive degree, and is why you never really see full-on clones from any large publishers. Or why Microsoft didn't just make their own.
In Japan, retailers are the ones buying the copies and they do so under their own expectations. And this is bad sell-through to those expectations:
Persona 5 will be huge for Atlus. I really think this is going to be the break out hit the series has been waiting for. All numbers of spinoffs are unusally high, especially considering how many of them there are. The main game will really put asses in seats, I feel.
MGSV...probably. Depending on how strong it will open FW and its legs. Who knows how much Splatoon has made by the time MGSV debuted.
As for Persona 5, do we know when it will arrive? It may not have enough time to catch up to Splatoon numbers if it will launch during the late holidays.
If you're talking about size then creating an endless procedurally generated world isn't actually impossible for Square to accomplish.
I don't see MGS5 having the hype or sales of MGS4. P5 is wait and see but I doubt it will top Splatoon either.
Sakura
Member
While I'm sure Persona 5 will do well, by the time it comes out, Splatoon could be sitting at 500~600k for the year. I'm not that confident Persona 5 will do better than that in the time it is out this year.
I can see Persona 5 doing similar to Tales of Xillia in the first week.
I was under the impression that MGSV is expected to be the worst selling game in the franchise in Japan. I guess we will find out in a few months.
I don't think Persona 5 will have enough time to catch up provided Splatoon continues to chug a long and has some surges in the Holidays.
No, not size. Complexity and player freedom. What you can do in Minecraft is astounding (let me tell you, I spend way to much time in it). The breadth of gameplay/building possibilities is nothing short of a happy accident.
But if its just a matter of size and building? Sure. SE can do that. (My point was, also, that a lot of pubs can get that done, but they don't bother because that's not really where Minecraft's legs and community draw come from.)
I don't know if you realize that almost every game (except the overshipments) has a 80-100% weekly sell-through.
Stock problems for Splatoon ended a few weeks ago.
I think it depends on Splatoon being bundled or not. If it is, forget about Mario Maker having higher LTD. Anyway, we really don't know the commercial potential of Mario Maker. Maybe it can really take Splatoon sales. Surely, Wii U will take lot of profit from these games, this year.
Pennywise83
Banned
07./10. [3DS] Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.06.11} (¥6.145) - 7.573 / 103.186 <60-80%> (-18%)
DB is doing ok. Wonder whether the anime + Obon can sustain its sales; it alread outsold the Butoden DS game (which was a bit late in the DS lifecycle, though).
DB is doing ok. Wonder whether the anime + Obon can sustain its sales; it alread outsold the Butoden DS game (which was a bit late in the DS lifecycle, though).
MGS is a consistent seller franchise. No reason why MGS5 should sell less than MGS4, which sold less than what Peace Walker did (original releases only)
People are seriously overestimating Mario Maker in Japan, I can see that title maybe making 250-300k by the end of the year and having great legs depending on how the Online is Flushed out.
Splatoon is being marketed for free in Japan, just looking at those miiverse posts in Japan I regret not being able to see them in my game. On top of that it appears plenty of artists drawing manga have jumped on the InkTrain
There is certainly reasons for this installment of the franchise to sell less in Japan, I expect it to do great WW but in Japan I get the feeling there isn't much chance of it selling as much as MGS4.
Splatoon is being marketed for free in Japan, just looking at those miiverse posts in Japan I regret not being able to see them in my game. On top of that it appears plenty of artists drawing manga have jumped on the InkTrain
There is certainly reasons for this installment of the franchise to sell less in Japan, I expect it to do great WW but in Japan I get the feeling there isn't much chance of it selling as much as MGS4.
A couple of years from now, it will be interesting to see how DQB and SMM end up performing/comparing to each other. At least the WiiU version of SMM, anyway.
Nintendo hasn't stopped advertising it, either.
Uhm...probably. But I'm still a bit cautios about seeing how Nintendo will promote the game. and I don't know if the game will be more "system seller" than Splatoon, being a third iteration of Mario platform on the Wii U.
Plus, Baisaku said that Mario is dead.
Interesting approach. let's see if the August update will match with those weekly event to sustain Wii U sales too.
Famitsu:
Kirby: 33.334 - 68.371 (after 7 weeks)
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze: 43.301 - 116k (from the recent updates)
Let's say that I was expecting a debut in between those two, with a possible LTD around 100K.
Something I wondered last week was whether it'll get its first +x% week-on-week sales before it drops below five figures, because I don't think that's a particularly common occurrence these days. It's getting close.
Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.
All things end some time. I have no data to back up my theory for MGS5 except from personal feeling.
Haha same here, Verendus was right telling us how little we know of their plans.
You dont think it will be a big seller?
Since it is so easy what the LTD for P5 will be?
SMM exists for the same reason that DQB exists, its for the creative kids/crowd that Minecraft is growing. SE went about chasing said crowd with making not-quite-Minecraft, while Nintendo went about it with romhack tools.
Both will get heavy advertising, and Mario will almost certainly get a ton of advertising. Its Mario after all.
Minecraft and AC:NL are the only ones I can think of doing it with any sort of consistency in the four figure range.
Nothing "easy" about it. By the time P5 hits, Splatoon will be over half a million, and possibly makings its way into a holiday bundle. At which point...
As a huge Minecrafter (admittedly on PC, with admittedly a lot of mods), the draw of Minecraft is in part its enormous and creative community and in part its utter freedom, neither of which I foresee in this title. This looks like a building game... I doubt the in-depth logic circuits of Minecraft around going to be in here, for instance. I'll draw a better conclusions when we hear more but my original point was and will remain: there's a reason other pubs haven't bothered making a Minecraft clone.
When we get more info on the title (and I ask my friend what is in the Famitsu article for a better idea on what they are planning here) I may make a bigger post with regards to what I think about this vs. minecraft and its appeal. No doubt DQ will be a strong lure, though.
Not only that, but it's selling more Wii Us than MK8 was doing at the same timeframe. Fantastink!
This is the known-quantity release vs. unknown-quantity release affect.
People knew Mario Kart (and Smash) were inevitabilities as well as Mario. That's why these sorts of titles don't usually see large or long lasting bumps (we'll see the same with the PS4 eventually, and its why the "wait for X" or chalkboard discussions are jokes).
Its the weird, out of nowhere titles that spur on actual hardware interest outside of the bare baseline. Huge IPs bring in spikes, but people know those IPs are eventually coming, so affects of this variety are spread far and thin. New titles and new IP can't have been anticipated (for obvious reasons) and so see their affects take hold after their release rather than before, and look much more "effective". Now, generally, these sorts of affects don't tend to last two months... but squid.
It will outsell Splatoon so easily that it will never happen.
Check my post about summer holidays and Obon.
Warner is making a minecraft clone - lego one. And i think it wont have minecraft legs, but will still be a big seller.
And this is why, ladies and gentlemen, NX at launch needs Kid Icarus: Uprising 2 by Platinum Games. Who the fuck would expect that? And how awesome would it be?
I have no way in gauging the interest in MGSV in Japan right now, but having 2 platforms (+1 for whatever XBO version will give, +1 if Konami bothers to sell the 360 version there) would surely help increase total sales for the game. But then again, it will really depend on how big it will open and for how long it will sell good numbers this year because right now Splatoon would probably be over 600k units by the time MGSV launches, plus Splatoon has proven to have strong weekly sales post launch that will further improve its numbers in the long run. So far, every new main line MGS game outside of MGS1 and Ground Zeroes have opened above 400k FW. If MGSV PP combined FW sales can do better than its predecessors' opening weeks then it may have a chance. Otherwise, I don't think it can catch up.
It definitely won't be a system seller. It's the third Mario game on the platform. Splatoon, being a new IP, has the benefit of reaching an entirely different audience than the usual Nintendo crowd. Like I'm sure Brain Age sold more DS systems than almost any other game on the system despite being a new IP. Same for Wii Sports on the Wii.
I still think the game will sell very well though.
Not as well as DQ Builder though Vena 
Diddy Kong
Banned
dem splatoon legs
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Wait what?
Is this a serious post?
I call for an avatar bet if so. Is a 100k difference between the two ok? You said "easily", so surely it can't be less than that?
If they want something unexpected for NX launch, Nintendo should do its very own GTA, in the form of an Urban Champion reboot.
Sakura
Member
???
Persona 4 did like, ~300k first year.
Splatoon will likely be at 500~600k when Persona 5 comes out.
I know Persona seems to be pretty strong these past years, but I don't think it has gotten so big that it will do more than double the sales of the last instalment.
And even if it does outsell Splatoon, it will be close, not 'easily'.
That would be awesome. They have already tried with a shooter. A GTA-ish game made by Nintendo would take the industry by storm. xD
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Interceptor
Banned
We are so used to these numbers now but it still blows my mind that there is fairly steady number of 30K people buying a handheld (or a console, doesnt really matter) every week.
Across all platforms or separate? I'm on mobile at the moment, so I can't give a detailed prediction.
LEGO is not that strong in Japan. I meant something a la Splatoon, where even manga creators have been involved. Something GTA-ish but with a japanese appeal. NX would do well, if it was released with a game like that.
Continuing with the Media Create White Book
Here the link for Used Sales Top 500 2014
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/4codwcvg9bmgtjk/AADfCVT1t9Atose6PnTkcC-ta?dl=0
I will keep updating the book little by little
Here the link for Used Sales Top 500 2014
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/4codwcvg9bmgtjk/AADfCVT1t9Atose6PnTkcC-ta?dl=0
I will keep updating the book little by little
I'm also pretty surprised by those sales, yeah. So, for this same reason I think that these type of game would sell well in NX.
Pennywise83
Banned
Thanks! Do you know whether they also sell these books in digital format?