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[The Mad Draklor]

Those Splatoon legs

I'm surprised to see such a significant rise from the PS4. Can a minor update to the model possibly create that much of a boost?

 

[twothunder]

Big expected drop for FE. Still doing well and will probably make lots of money with digital sales. Having 3 routes and all.

Rhythm Heaven doing decent even without Fewer legs.

03./06. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 34.135 / 382.175 (-9%)
Splatoon
03./04. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 31.494 / 418.599 <80-100%> (-18%)

Those tentacles just keep going. It might end close to FE in the long run (in media create at least) if they can keep up good numbers

Why does everyone forget about Mario Maker? That'll outsell Splatoon.

Not too sure about that.

 

[Vena]

Wait what?

I'm joking. But DQB looks so unabashedly like a rip-off from its current screen shots, that I thought to entertain the idea.

Warner is making a minecraft clone - lego one. And i think it wont have minecraft legs, but will still be a big seller.

Its already out (effectively, Early Access) on Steam. Honestly, I don't think it will make any more of a dent than GTA LEGO or any other themed LEGO game relative to the thing it is aping. (I am not a fan of LEGOs formula as it is: take popular thing, slap LEGO on it.)

It will be a slow boil if it does, though, but I don't see the Minecraft crowd, community et al, moving and as such (as I said) I don't see it carrying or catching what makes Minecraft Minecraft. As I said, its not just the building and the big world, and I have no doubt that SE can pull that much off. I'll take my uninspired rip-offs with equally uninspired enthusiasm.

DQB should have been a romhack tool set!

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.

Splatoon has already surpassed Persona 4's sales.

Now Persona 5 will likely outsell Persona 4 due to the franchise having grown quite a bit between the multiple anime titles, spinoffs, etc, but Persona 5 would have to more than double Persona 4's sales to even have a shot at outselling Splatoon, given where Splatoon will likely end up with these legs.

 

[KooopaKid]

This is the known-quantity release vs. unknown-quantity release affect.

People knew Mario Kart (and Smash) were inevitabilities as well as Mario. That's why these sorts of titles don't usually see large or long lasting bumps (we'll see the same with the PS4 eventually, and its why the "wait for X" or chalkboard discussions are jokes).

Its the weird, out of nowhere titles that spur on actual hardware interest outside of the bare baseline. Huge IPs bring in spikes, but people know those IPs are eventually coming, so affects of this variety are spread far and thin. New titles and new IP can't have been anticipated (for obvious reasons) and so see their affects take hold after their release rather than before, and look much more "effective". Now, generally, these sorts of affects don't tend to last two months... but squid.

Yes, killer apps are more often than not unknown and new franchises (Super Mario Bros, Sonic 1, Halo, Tetris, Pokemon, Wii Sports, Minecraft,

Spoiler

Splatoon

, etc...) with some exceptions like SM64 or FFVII.
Nintendo should remember that more often.

 

[vinnygambini]

Persona vs Splatoon

What has happened?

__________________________________________

On topic, great legs for Splatoon, Fire Emblem continues to outpace its predecessor, and Rhythm Heaven seems to be doing fine but 500k LTD may be difficult to reach.

 

[Darius]

About Fire Emblem If, doesn´t the special edition actually include all three paths/versions instead of two with the last one as a download sometime later? If so, wouldn´t by the same reason counting the special edition as just two games actually be incorrect as well?

 

[Sakura]

About Fire Emblem If, doesn´t the special edition actually include all three paths/versions instead of two with the last one as a download sometime later? If so, wouldn´t by the same reason counting the special edition as just two games actually be incorrect as well?

The third route is DLC, not a retail game, so it should not be counted as a game.
It shouldn't even be counted as two games really, as it is just a special edition of the game that essentially includes 4000 yen worth of DLC.

 

[Pennywise83]

Splatoon has already surpassed Persona 4's sales.

Now Persona 5 will likely outsell Persona 4 due to the franchise having grown quite a bit between the multiple anime titles, spinoffs, etc, but Persona 5 would have to more than double Persona 4's sales to even have a shot at outselling Splatoon, given where Splatoon will likely end up with these legs.

Don't understimate Persona fanbase. I do think Persona 5 will be way bigger than 4 (which, btw, reached 400k units on PSV alone) and adding PS4 to PS3 might have a sizeable increase wrt to previous entries.

 

[Xbro]

Uh Persona 5 will easily outsell Splatoon. The hype will be real as they get closer to release.

Seriously?

 

[Canis lupus]

Damn minecraft still beasting. DQ builders make so much sense. Also DQXI on PS4 is all but confirmed now. Also makes sense, since it'll probably be the only relevant platform in that chart in 2-3 years by the time it actually comes out.

 

[casiopao]

The third route is DLC, not a retail game, so it should not be counted as a game.
It shouldn't even be counted as two games really, as it is just a special edition of the game that essentially includes 4000 yen worth of DLC.

Sakura sorry for troubling u here, Can u explain the special edition for FE here?

Is it a single game with two title in a cartridge or it is a title with another version being given as DLC code?

 

[Jigorath]

Damn minecraft still beasting. DQ builders make so much sense. Also DQXI on PS4 is all but confirmed now. Also makes sense, since it'll probably be the only relevant platform in that chart in 2-3 years by the time it actually comes out.

It's almost definitely coming next year.

 

[Xbro]

Don't understimate Persona fanbase. I do think Persona 5 will be way bigger than 4 (which, btw, reached 400k units on PSV alone) and adding PS4 to PS3 might have a sizeable increase wrt to previous entries.

Do you have the digital sales on P4G?

144. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329) - 54.140 / 329.050 (137.076 <84,11%>)

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Seriously?

Considering what Persona 4 sold on Vita back in 2012, why is that so hard to believe?

 

[Square2015]

less than 4000 is not much of a bump, that could have been caused by a retailer having a sale.

Or dat FFVII anticipation. The post-E3 bump.

 

[Jigorath]

Persona 5 will do very well in Japan. Doubt it'll beat Splatoon but it'll sell at least 500k. I'm more curious how it'll do in the US. I think it's the first big "test" for the PS4 when it comes to JRPGs in the West.

 

[Busaiku]

Do you have the digital sales on P4G?

144. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329) - 54.140 / 329.050 (137.076 <84,11%>)

Probably the budget rerelease (didn't check, so I don't know).

 

[Wynnebeck]

Splatoon has already surpassed Persona 4's sales.

Now Persona 5 will likely outsell Persona 4 due to the franchise having grown quite a bit between the multiple anime titles, spinoffs, etc, but Persona 5 would have to more than double Persona 4's sales to even have a shot at outselling Splatoon, given where Splatoon will likely end up with these legs.

144. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329) - 54.140 / 329.050 (137.076 <84,11%>)

http://www.siliconera.com/2009/10/06/well-how-many-copies-did-persona-4-and-devil-survivor-sell/

North America
Persona 4 (PS2) – 110,000 (150,000 expected)




We also have sales data for Japan, but since Persona 4 was released there on July 10, 2008 that number is from last year’s report. Considering Persona 4 came out between two fiscal periods it’s probably different and just here for a rough comparison between regions.



Japan
Persona 4* (PS2) – 300,000 (180,000 expected)

So about 739K roughly. I think people forgot that Persona 4 Golden is not the only Persona 4 that came out. P4G saw decreased sales because it was put only on Vita. Had the game been released on PS3 along with Vita, I daresay sales would have doubled. Now, Splatoon has legs, but IMO I'm not so high on it hitting 500-600K LTD not until November or December if this year at all. Judging just by Japan, I can see P5's LTD hitting around 550K for this year depending on how well received it is. Has anything shown up in Comgnet yet?

 

[Sakura]

Don't understimate Persona fanbase. I do think Persona 5 will be way bigger than 4 (which, btw, reached 400k units on PSV alone) and adding PS4 to PS3 might have a sizeable increase wrt to previous entries.

According to the yearly media create sales thread, it reached 329k on the Vita at the end of 2014, when it came out in 2012. When we are talking about which game will sell more this year, Splatoon or Persona 5, it's pretty silly to say Persona 5 will win easily.

Sakura sorry for troubling u here, Can u explain the special edition for FE here?

Is it a single game with two title in a cartridge or it is a title with another version being given as DLC code?

It is a single game card with both routes available on the game card, with the third route being available later for download. At least that is what the site says.

In any case, they are selling you a single retail game card. It should not be counted as 2 or even worse 3 units worth of sales.

Considering what Persona 4 sold on Vita back in 2012, why is that so hard to believe?

So because Persona 4 sold 200+k on the Vita in 2012 it is reasonable to believe that Persona 5 will sell over 600k in 2015?

 

[Tom Nook]

Splatoon!! Never misses leg day.

 

[Square2015]

Those Splatoon legs

I'm surprised to see such a significant rise from the PS4. Can a minor update to the model possibly create that much of a boost?

No but e3 can.

 

[Jamix012]

So because Persona 4 sold 200+k on the Vita in 2012 it is reasonable to believe that Persona 5 will sell over 600k in 2015?

Yes. Unless it releases in the last 2 weeks of December.

 

[Busaiku]

Had the game been released on PS3 along with Vita, I daresay sales would have doubled.

This likely isn't case.
Look at staggered releases of other games vs same day launches.
Simultaneous launches cause sales increases, but staggered releases usually net a higher total.

 

[Wynnebeck]

This likely isn't case.
Look at staggered releases of other games vs same day launches.
Game sales increase, but staggered releases usually net a higher total.

I'd imagine Atlus would have released the PS3 version near the start date of the anime to build off of the hype with the Vita version a month later or what have you.

 

[Sakura]

Yes. Unless it releases in the last 2 weeks of December.

Based on what exactly? Just because the combined PS3 and PS4 install base is larger than the Vita install base, does not mean that the game will necessarily have much higher sales than P4G did.

 

[Wiggy]

It will be a slow boil if it does, though, but I don't see the Minecraft crowd, community et al, moving and as such (as I said) I don't see it carrying or catching what makes Minecraft Minecraft. As I said, its not just the building and the big world, and I have no doubt that SE can pull that much off. I'll take my uninspired rip-offs with equally uninspired enthusiasm.

DQB should have been a romhack tool set!

I think this is more after kids than diehard loyal minecraft fans

 

[Jamix012]

Based on what exactly? Just because the combined PS3 and PS4 install base is larger than the Vita install base, does not mean that the game will necessarily have much higher sales than P4G did.

P4G was an updated re-release of a game and sold 300k+. P5 is a brand new game with far more interest.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Persona 5 is going to open well but Splatoon is on track for 500-600k. Easily beating those numbers . . . I doubt it unless the game straight up doubles P4s total numbers in its first week or two.

 

[horuhe]

So because Persona 4 sold 200+k on the Vita in 2012 it is reasonable to believe that Persona 5 will sell over 600k in 2015?

Not that high, but otselling Persona 4 Golden shouldn't be that difficult, though.

Combining the two platforms, I hardly believe it'll sell more than 500k, when all it's done.

 

[Wynnebeck]

P4G was an updated re-release of a game and sold 300k+. P5 is a brand new game with far more interest.

You would think that should tell you all you need to know.

Persona 5 is going to open well but Splatoon is on track for 500-600k. Easily beating those numbers . . . I doubt it unless the game straight up doubles P4s total numbers in its first week or two.

I think I misspoke when I said beat easily. I was thinking in the sense of global sales, whereas only Japan is a much harder thing to determine especially this early.

 

[Canis lupus]

It's almost definitely coming next year.

I hope so but dont see them announce and release such a big rpg in only a year despite the anniversary.

Persona 5 should be able to crack 600k in Japan. In the west though, I'm expecting more than 1.5 million.

 

[Jigorath]

Based on what exactly? Just because the combined PS3 and PS4 install base is larger than the Vita install base, does not mean that the game will necessarily have much higher sales than P4G did.

P4G was just a remake. P5 is an entirely new game. I'm pretty sure it'll easily outsell P4G.

 

[beril]

144. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329) - 54.140 / 329.050 (137.076 <84,11%>)

http://www.siliconera.com/2009/10/06/well-how-many-copies-did-persona-4-and-devil-survivor-sell/



So about 739K roughly. I think people forgot that Persona 4 Golden is not the only Persona 4 that came out. P4G saw decreased sales because it was put only on Vita. Had the game been released on PS3 along with Vita, I daresay sales would have doubled. Now, Splatoon has legs, but IMO I'm not so high on it hitting 500-600K LTD not until November or December if this year at all. Judging just by Japan, I can see P5's LTD hitting around 550K for this year depending on how well received it is. Has anything shown up in Comgnet yet?

with digital it should hit 500k in a week or two

Also I think you're underestimating how many people double dip with portable remakes.

 

[Xbro]

P4G was an updated re-release of a game and sold 300k+. P5 is a brand new game with far more interest.

I'd imagine P4 for PS2 is sitting around 300-310K. I'd say it's pretty clear the Persona fanbase is a dedicated one, which is why the spin-offs sell as well as they do.

 

[Astral Dog]

Why compare Persona to Splatoon?

 

[Xbro]

Why compare Persona to Splatoon?

Something about Splatoon being among the best selling games this year.

It's on course to be best selling game on console this year in Japan

 

[Sakura]

P4G was an updated re-release of a game and sold 300k+. P5 is a brand new game with far more interest.

So...?
That means it's going to sell 600k?
There are many cases where a re-release performs well. But that doesn't exactly mean a new entry performs astoundingly better. I mean, you couldn't possibly think that most of the audience of P4G are perhaps people who already played P4?

Not that high, but otselling Persona 4 Golden shouldn't be that difficult, though.

P4G was just a remake. P5 is an entirely new game. I'm pretty sure it'll easily outsell P4G.

Nobody is saying it won't outsell P4G. I'm specifically referring to the idea that it would be able to easily outsell Splatoon sales of 500~600k, simply because P4G did like 250~k first year.

 

[Vena]

I think this is more after kids than diehard loyal minecraft fans

Kids are one of the biggest audiences of minecraft personalities. And they are a big part of the community through WOM and just in general.

 

[Jamix012]

I'd imagine P4 for PS2 is sitting around 300-310K. I'd say it's pretty clear the Persona fanbase is a dedicated one, which is why the spin-offs sell as well as they do.

I don't agree. I think the actual truth of the matter is that the fanbase and interest has exploded since 2008 due to the numerous quality spin offs, good word of mouth and tie ins.

 

[Jigorath]

I'd imagine P4 for PS2 is sitting around 300-310K. I'd say it's pretty clear the Persona fanbase is a dedicated one, which is why the spin-offs sell as well as they do.

with digital it should hit 500k in a week or two

Also I think you're underestimating how many people double dip with portable remakes.

I think we're going to see some major crow eating when we see Persona 5 sales.

Nobody is saying it won't outsell P4G. I'm specifically referring to the idea that it would be able to easily outsell Splatoon sales of 500~600k, simply because P4G did like 250~k first year.

Right, I don't think it'll outsell Splatoon either, but people expecting P5 to sell around 300k are way underestimating it.

 

[Wynnebeck]

So...?
That means it's going to sell 600k?
There are many cases where a re-release performs well. But that doesn't exactly mean a new entry performs astoundingly better. I mean, you couldn't possibly think that most of the audience of P4G are perhaps people who already played P4?


Nobody is saying it won't outsell P4G. I'm specifically referring to the idea that it would be able to easily outsell Splatoon sales of 500~600k, simply because P4G did like 250~k first year.

It also comes down to the Persona brand being a more recognizable and popular IP compared to newcomer Splatoon. Yeah, it's great Splatoon is doing so well, but when you have the newest entry to such a popular series, it's not outside of the realm of possibilities that sales will reflect its popularity.

 

[beril]

I think we're going to see some major crow eating when we see Persona 5 sales.

Oh I think P5 will do well. possibly 500k+. But I don't think combining P4 and P4G sales makes much sense

 

[Wiggy]

Kids are one of the biggest audiences of minecraft personalities. And they are a big part of the community through WOM and just in general.

Yeah exactly. I'm saying they would be just excited that a new minecraft-like game is out and buy it, not worried that it doesnt have sufficient mod-tools or whatever. Add the DQ ip and there's more interest. Thats why I think decent opening, but not minecraft legs (unless the game turns out to be really good i guess).

 

[Chastten]

Generally don't comment in here, but seems like Splatoon gave some life to WiiU in Japan, no? At least more then MK/Smash did last year.

What are the chances of it staying there? Any major new game releases in the upcoming weeks?

 

[BlackJace]

Persona should do well for Atlus' expectations. That doesn't mean million, or even near million status, mind you.

What's reassuring is that it's a healthy, and I believe growing, franchise.

 

[Aostia]

I think we're going to see some major crow eating when we see Persona 5 sales.



Right, I don't think it'll outsell Splatoon either, but people expecting P5 to sell around 300k are way underestimating it.

your estimation?

 

[hiska-kun]

Now, Splatoon has legs, but IMO I'm not so high on it hitting 500-600K LTD not until November or December if this year at all. Judging just by Japan, I can see P5's LTD hitting around 550K for this year depending on how well received it is. Has anything shown up in Comgnet yet?

Splatoon will be over 500k easily before summer ends (quote me on that by the end of August). That's ignoring the already confirmed +58k digital sales.

Splatoon will be over 700k easily by the end of this year. That's if it's NOT bundled later.

Now, I truly believe that Persona 5 will sell really great. But there's no way to surpass Splatoon.

That said, can we stop comparing unrelated games and impossible targets?

 

[Xbro]

Right, I don't think it'll outsell Splatoon either, but people expecting P5 to sell around 300k are way underestimating it.

Who is saying P5 will sell around 300K?

 

[Jigorath]

your estimation?

Something like...

Splatoon - 1m
Persona 5 - 600-700k