Why do people assume P5 is going to have long legs? Honest question. No snark.
If the game does 600k opening week then yeah it might beat Splatoon numbers for the year, but I would say there is very little chance of it beating Splatoon LTD.
Unless I'm missing something..
Is there a tie-in anime? That could pull more people in after launch week.
Usually poplar RPGs open big and then drop like rocks. Why is it believed P5 will perform different?
Why do big RPGs usually drop so quickly. It's the resale market at work. If early adopters beat the game quick they can sell it back at near retail price (and if there are shortages for more than retail price). But once these used copies start hitting the market the bubble bursts quickly and people pick up cheaper used copies. Other than really hardcore gamers, few people keep a "Library" of titles here.
I know P4:The Golden lingered on the Vita charts for a long time but that seemed to be more of an anomaly that a precedent. It launched shortly after the vita (at the same time?) and it was the go-to game to pick up with the system.
As for mindshare in Japan, Splatoon is big right now. People are talking about it. Kids, adults. People who don't have WiiUs.
RPG gamers are excited about P5. Very excited. But at least at this time there is not nearly the level mainstream hype.
Splatoon on the other hand I can see getting a big bump at the holidays (like Nintendo games do every year). And then having lingering low chart (or off chart) sales until the NX.
I will be first to admit I have not been following P5 closely (though I plan to pick it up), but I live in Japan and unless there is some massive ad push by Atlus or a new anime tie in, or an irresistible bundle, I don't see it overtaking Splatoon.
But is there something I am overlooking or forgetting?