As I said in my comments earlier, I expect a lot of their revivals and new IPs to go away given the outlined strategy, but that they seem to be content with the idea of trying a revolving carousel of products in search for hits that can roll through easily.
Similarly, the concept of Bravely Default (making a game that hearkens back to their older titles) appears to be the goal of Project Setsuna based on their statements so far, so they already have the next try in that business line in the hopper.
I agree that I don't think it's a sound strategy. I'm also not too enamoured with the idea of Project Setsuna taking Bravely's place personally. Least of all because it likely means less handheld projects in favour of home console projects.
The fact that Project Setsuna was presented at E3 and they didn't even acknowledge Bravely Second is a slap in the face.
DQ has a good chance of decline ahead, very similar to FF in Japan. Kind of funny that going forward Capcom and Level 5 will have stronger IPs than either FF and maybe even DQ. While those two had been the biggest 3rd party IPs for a very long time even decades in Japan.
btw, everyone excited about DQXI PS4, but actually, if there will be a Vita version, that will be the huge one, imho.
could easily become the MH-psp situation
Because of that, i'm starting to get a bit worried about Super Mario Maker. Ok, it's very different from the others plataformers, but I think Nintendo might have overestimated the sales potential of this game...
DQ has a good chance of decline ahead, very similar to FF in Japan. Kind of funny that going forward Capcom and Level 5 will have stronger IPs than either FF and maybe even DQ. While those two had been the biggest 3rd party IPs for a very long time even decades in Japan.
That's what makes me think that it will come to some combination of Playstation platforms including PS4 because SE will try to offset lost sales in it's homeland with sales in west.
That's what makes me think that it will come to some combination of Playstation platforms including PS4 because SE will try to offset lost sales in it's homeland with sales in west.
I guess that´s the idea. Problem is that going forward neither PS3 nor PSV will be viable in the long run. Even with a hypothetical PS3/PSV/PS4 combination there´ll likely be a considerably decline compared to DQ9, and after 2017 this specific combination will be an even less and lesser viable strategy. Either they release a next gen handheld or the PS4 will be more and more reliant on its own userbase, which likely won´t even match PS3s in the end.
I guess that´s the idea. Problem is that going forward neither PS3 nor PSV will be viable in the long run. Even with a hypothetical PS3/PSV/PS4 combination there´ll likely be a considerably decline compared to DQ9, and after 2017 this specific combination will be an even less and lesser viable strategy. Either they release a next gen handheld or the PS4 will be more and more reliant on its own userbase, which likely won´t even match PS3s in the end.
DQXI is probably 2016 so any combination of PS systems is viable. I think Vita is going to support for quite a while after that too. DQ Builders on its own might give Vita a second lease of life.
Dragon Quest Heroes II: Twin Kings and the Prophecys End has a different world view from the previous game, and through that a new story will begin. Please expect a dramatic story to develop. The giant monsters and crowds of monster-battle action that was so popular in the previous game is powered up, of course. There are new ways to play and additions, so please look forward to more news.
Well, they announced DQ IV-V-VI on DS at the same time back then, and it doesn't seem SQEX is hiding its PS family support, so they might well announce the PS4 remaster anytime soon.
I was actually surprised that there was no effort to make a cheap DQVIII mobile port to Vita with Chaos Rings/Rise of Mana. Then I recalled hearing that Unity on Vita is pretty gimped(only uses one core, hasn't been updated in some time - which may explain the lack of GTA mobile ports, I mean they run on Xperia Play).
i wonder if when dq comes out for vita that the userbase in japan will grow for the machine to a point where it starts getting more games than expected for a system as old as it is (it'll be five years old at the end of 2016). in 2017 there could be a situation where the system is still doing relatively well, maybe on its final decline after an uptick, but basically not a viable platform anywhere else. localizations might only happen where it's just a digital version in the west.
Vita is easier to down-port to from PS4 than the 3DS is, and then it seems fairly cost-free to insert the PS4 localization. Which is the reason the West gets all those Atelier Plus games. Have we actually seen any 3ds/PS4 games?
I assume this may change with the NX, which is why I am not sure it will be that much more costly to develop for. Yes a native NX game will almost certainly be more expensive than a native 3DS game, but if it supports Unity and other platforms, that will be more than made up for by the ease of porting from Mobile/PS4. Wheras now I think the reason the 3DS is not getting DQXI(if it is not) is less because of its absolute power, or lack thereof than because of the size of the gap in power between it and the rest of the market, and presumably the NX going forward. Is is basically Gamecube level in a market where the bottom tier(PS3, Vita) is a generation ahead and the top-tier(PS4) is two. Which means the gap for a 3DS/PS4 game would be two not one generations. Can anyone imagine a PS4/PS2 cross-gen game? You would be better off making two entirely different ones.
i wonder if when dq comes out for vita that the userbase in japan will grow for the machine to a point where it starts getting more games than expected for a system as old as it is (it'll be five years old at the end of 2016). in 2017 there could be a situation where the system is still doing relatively well, maybe on its final decline after an uptick, but basically not a viable platform anywhere else. localizations might only happen where it's just a digital version in the west.
I don't think the userbase will grow that much tbh, SE is putting all of its eggs on PS4 and I hardly think there will be a Vita version if not the PS4 version is severely gimped (graphics wise).
But also it could spell some big trouble for Nintendo NX if SE starts to support Vita if that is the case
There is no doubt in my mind that the nx handheld will sell less overall than the 3ds and that developing for it will cost more than 3ds. That's where the danger lies.
The first year of the 3DS was hampered by the high launch price but it still became the fastest selling gaming system ever. I'd expect the next Nintendo handheld to break the record again as long as they don't make a major error. You've got multiple games that can sell around 4m in Japan such as Pokemon, Monster Hunter, Animal Crossing and Yokai Watch while hitting different audiences(granted Pokemon and YW have more overlap) and then the core Nintendo games like Mario/Kart/Smash. They could easily sell 10M systems in the first year with these games or more realistically race along to 15m within the first 2 or 3 years.
Expanding beyond that will be a challenge and they may hit a brick wall like they did with the 3DS. The rising development costs and franchise fatigue make the attempt at expanding more difficult but in terms of matching or slightly exceeding 3DS I think that the NX/4DS should be ok. Yokai Watch hit it big just this last year, Fire Emblem is seeing growth and Smash is new to handhelds this gen. Splatoon could also make the jump to handhelds next to help keep the market fresh. The 5DS is where I think the real challenge will be in terms of avoiding further severe contraction in handhelds in Japan.
I don't think the userbase will grow that much tbh, SE is putting all of its eggs on PS4 and I hardly think there will be a Vita version if not the PS4 version is severely gimped (graphics wise).
But also it could spell some big trouble for Nintendo NX if SE starts to support Vita if that is the case
well i still think 2017 is the vita's end as a platform regardless. it just could be a place for smaller companies in the meantime, preventing a move to nx, ps4, mobile, or steam that might be taking place next year instead. basically if there are 5.5-6m vitas in 2017 and winding down, versus just 5m (and the machine is barely selling at that point), there will probably be a large disparity between japan and the west. kind of like the saturn but not as severe.
well i still think 2017 is the vita's end as a platform regardless. it just could be a place for smaller companies in the meantime, preventing a move to nx, ps4, mobile, or steam that might be taking place next year instead. basically if there are 5.5-6m vitas in 2017 and winding down, versus just 5m (and the machine is barely selling at that point), there will probably be a large disparity between japan and the west. kind of like the saturn but not as severe.
I agree that I don't think it's a sound strategy. I'm also not too enamoured with the idea of Project Setsuna taking Bravely's place personally. Least of all because it likely means less handheld projects in favour of home console projects.
The fact that Project Setsuna was presented at E3 and they didn't even acknowledge Bravely Second is a slap in the face.
well i still think 2017 is the vita's end as a platform regardless. it just could be a place for smaller companies in the meantime, preventing a move to nx, ps4, mobile, or steam that might be taking place next year instead. basically if there are 5.5-6m vitas in 2017 and winding down, versus just 5m (and the machine is barely selling at that point), there will probably be a large disparity between japan and the west. kind of like the saturn but not as severe.
The cross-platform factor will keep localisations coming that would otherwise make no economic sense simply on Vita. If you have already translated the PS4 version of a game, it may cost you next to nothing to insert it into the Vita version and upload it to PSN.
What would kill it completely is Sony finally fixing PSN by relaunching the whole thing and scrapping legacy support. But as long as the Vita is viable in Japan I don't see them killing at least the store, and at that point the question again becomes if the infrastructure exists why kill something that costs nothing an generates a little bit of revenue?
I don't think the userbase will grow that much tbh, SE is putting all of its eggs on PS4 and I hardly think there will be a Vita version if not the PS4 version is severely gimped (graphics wise).
But also it could spell some big trouble for Nintendo NX if SE starts to support Vita if that is the case
If SE starts doing it? They've been supporting platforms all over, lol.
That said, I don't really think the Vita has anywhere to go but down with time, even if it gets the occasional breadth of life from a release here or there, the general consumer hasn't been compelled to buy one in droves even with a thousand MH clones, real Minecraft, or otherwise. If we are arguing for DQBuilders to revitalize it, we may as well also start discussing how SMM (and Spatoon) is going to revitalize the WiiU for another several years.
SMM is the best Minecraft clone that isn't Minecraft since Minecraft cloned Legos and Terraria was born! Also ROM hack tools.
DQXI is probably 2016 so any combination of PS systems is viable. I think Vita is going to support for quite a while after that too. DQ Builders on its own might give Vita a second lease of life.
I was mostly talking about a possible longterm decline for the DQ IP at retail also beyond a speculated DQ11 release in 2016, and the viability of the suggested PSV/PS3/PS4 combination in general past 2017.
Also the unreasonable hope for PSV reminds me of the PSV-TV reveal which was considered as a brilliant move to put the system back on track ... Even with a successful DQ spinoff the fate is sealed, due to old age and nothing to follow up this hypothetical software success, beeing optimistic sales could remain flat or see a slight increase compared to this years already mediocre to bad sales. After that we have the next gen handheld in the horizon which won´t make matters easier.
Are you talking about Japan ? Because if it's the case I can hardly believe than what you're saying is serious, there's not a single dedicated device that sold 10M in one year (the DS must be the one holding the annual record with 8M in 2006), DS barely reached 15M in 2 years in what were the biggest years of the industries (15M 2006-7)
And we're not going to see that kind of number anymore
Assuming it's an handheld device first, NX would be lucky to reach 10M in 3 years in the current market already.
I'm really curious to see how SE's strategy pays off because KH3 is really the only game I can see selling close to what we are used to and I'm not even sure how that's going to do in today's climate.
I was mostly talking about a possible longterm decline for the DQ IP at retail also beyond a speculated DQ11 release in 2016, and the viability of the suggested PSV/PS3/PS4 combination in general past 2017.
Also the unreasonable hope for PSV reminds me of the PSV-TV reveal which was considered as a brilliant move to put the system back on track ... Even with a successful DQ spinoff the fate is sealed, due to old age and nothing to follow up this hypothetical software success, beeing optimistic sales could remain flat or see a slight increase compared to this years already mediocre to bad sales. After that we have the next gen handheld in the horizon which won´t make matters easier.
For a game like that, i would say yes. I'm sure that many people would simply get it for PS3 instead of having to buy another system. Even if they have packed the PS3 away, it wont be a problem to unpack it.
If Dragon Quest 11 comes out in late 2016 or 2017 and old platforms wouldnt be viable, we basically only have PS4 left. At this time, Nintendo's next platform will be out as well i think, but its unlikely that DQ11 will be made for those.
As far as I can tell,
-Ongoing advertising (probably? If NOA is still advertising surely other regions are too?)
-Good word of mouth
-The constant drip of new content going out
-Being a new IP sidesteps some of the cynicism that this would have received had it been Mario Paintball
SMM? I've only compared SMM to Minecraft in respect to what the games are: creation tools, but they are fundamentally different type of creation tools with the former being effectively a ROM hack (made accessible) and the latter a free-form building tool. They offer different types of building (though both are effectively free form and limited only by the canvas on which you paint, so to speak), but they target a similar demographic and interest group: kids and adults who like to build stuff and create.
The equivalent of the Minecraft super structures will be the SMM super self-run music levels or stuff like that.
Until someone figures out how to program a computer in SMM.
Of course, SMM offers things that Minecraft doesn't (in any intuitive way, at least) which is to share creations and basically be a "game" for everyone by everyone. Creation tools like that can be self-proliferating if they aren't obtuse and alienating. And, of course, conversely Minecraft offers a whole world beholden to only the creations you make which, obviously, SMM cannot provide nor does it set out to do so. Minecraft is also a much more organic experience as it has no real "rules" or guides outside of the general laws of the world, everything else is random and personal. This is usually what is lost in many of its clones that try to give it structure if they're not just outright aping the game wholesale.
I do think SMM has a chance to be a big success for Nintendo on a different level than most of their usual titles, but one I feel they've been chasing themselves since Wario Ware was a thing.
The game I've actually compared to Minecraft as a like-product... is DQ:Minecraft, because it is Minecraft.
They probably just compiled a modded version of Minecraft.
The first year of the 3DS was hampered by the high launch price but it still became the fastest selling gaming system ever. I'd expect the next Nintendo handheld to break the record again as long as they don't make a major error. You've got multiple games that can sell around 4m in Japan such as Pokemon, Monster Hunter, Animal Crossing and Yokai Watch while hitting different audiences(granted Pokemon and YW have more overlap) and then the core Nintendo games like Mario/Kart/Smash. They could easily sell 10M systems in the first year with these games or more realistically race along to 15m within the first 2 or 3 years.
Expanding beyond that will be a challenge and they may hit a brick wall like they did with the 3DS. The rising development costs and franchise fatigue make the attempt at expanding more difficult but in terms of matching or slightly exceeding 3DS I think that the NX/4DS should be ok. Yokai Watch hit it big just this last year, Fire Emblem is seeing growth and Smash is new to handhelds this gen. Splatoon could also make the jump to handhelds next to help keep the market fresh. The 5DS is where I think the real challenge will be in terms of avoiding further severe contraction in handhelds in Japan.
I've compiled all of 1st Course's 2015 Dengeki data into an excel sheet, because I got interested in seeing how software was moving week to week. (Now someone is going to tell me that excel data for that already exists, lol.)
Anyway, here's a fun little pie! (I didn't include X1 because it was 0%...)
