Monster Hunter is larger than Final Fantasy.
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Monster Hunter is larger than Final Fantasy.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Well we will see if it get bigger than FF on consoles in Japan .
DQ is doing +1 million first week even tho it's available on the 3ds as well. You think +1 million for an exclusive MH ltd is not expected? I'd even argue the game has a high chance of hitting +1 million before the fy ends in japan alone physical+digital.
True, but it has only been bigger on handheld systems, not on consoles. I do think it'll do slightly better in the end, but it's definitely not a no-brainer imo. FFXV has it's western oriëntatie against it, while MHW seems like a pretty traditional MH in most respect, so that's why I think it'LL go over FFXV in the end.
Shops aren't even open yet.
I worded it wrong my mistake. The game is expected based on pre-orders to sell +1 million, but that's not the point. Even if it sells 750k-800k first week it should do 1 million 2-3 weeks after. Why would you expect an exclusive MH to sell less than that ltd?
Well, even though I expect it to break 1 million, so far the best selling home console MH squeaked by 1 million and barely sold out its initial shipment. So doing comfortably more than 1 million isn't exactly a sure bet.
Because:
- It's on console whereas Japan focuses on portables.
- MH on console has no history of such sales.
- PS4 has no history of such sales.
- Main games of both FF and DQ tend to be among the biggest games on console, FFXV barely made a million.
- MH has a history of achieving its big sales on portable through ad-hoc local play and word of mouth about it. A feature MHW can't offer.
Etc.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Its definitely got a very positive reaction in Japan. Its looking to become the most viewed trailer on the Capcom channel, possibly beating MHP3rd trailer. However 2 million for a console game has not been heard of since the PS2 days.
We need to see how DQ11 does.
Didn't Wii have a bunch of Multi Million sellers? Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart, NSMB. Not sure if any other.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Wii was king. Much like the 3DS most of it's sales congreagetes around the major million selling titles.
Same with the Wii U frankly. Still has more million sellers than the PS4 I believe. It's just how Nintendo systems are in Japan. Sony's system tend to have lower ceilings with more mid-tiers.
Those views were ad driven, after the ad run ended it gained almost no views
I'm on my way now, my nearby Geo opens at 7. Picking up the 3DS version.
We're not in 2007 anymore schuelma, it's not cool anymore, come on.
- It's on console whereas Japan focuses on portables.
Which is why we're here talking about 1 million and not 3 or 4 millions in sales.
- MH on console has no history of such sales.
Wouldn't the market and even MH be different now than what it was at the time?
- PS4 has no history of such sales.
DQ will. FF already did.
- Main games of both FF and DQ tend to be among the biggest games on console, FFXV barely made a million.
And other games did much better than their predecessors. FF decline in japan is one of the worst example of a series decline that I don't think it's fair to use as a comparison especially since some of it have to do with other factors related to the series itself not the market situation now.
- MH has a history of achieving its big sales on portable through ad-hoc local play and word of mouth about it. A feature MHW can't offer.
Multiplayer can make up for that since people who buy games for PS4 are used to that anyway, and you just need a good game to have a good wom which the game so far looks like it.
Which is why we're here talking about 1 million and not 3 or 4 millions in sales.
- MH on console has no history of such sales.
Wouldn't the market and even MH be different now than what it was at the time?
- PS4 has no history of such sales.
DQ will. FF already did.
- Main games of both FF and DQ tend to be among the biggest games on console, FFXV barely made a million.
And other games did much better than their predecessors. FF decline in japan is one of the worst example of a series decline that I don't think it's fair to use as a comparison especially since some of it have to do with other factors related to the series itself not the market situation now.
- MH has a history of achieving its big sales on portable through ad-hoc local play and word of mouth about it. A feature MHW can't offer.
Multiplayer can make up for that since people who buy games for PS4 are used to that anyway, and you just need a good game to have a good wom which the game so far looks like it.
With the caveat that I tend to think that World will break a million, I do have to say that FF isn't the only franchise to decline during this generation. I don't think there are as many huge 3rd party successes on PS4 as some people believe.
Has it been considered that the decrease in sales of FF are not due to lack of interest, but due to the platform it is sold on? Final Fantasy still has a lot of brand recognition and the games get many downloads on mobile.
In most of the world Final Fantasy gets a big portion of their sales from core gamers, however in Japan RPGs are a bit more of a casual genre and games such as DQ and FF gain a lot of sales from less committed gamers that are unlikely to invest in expensive hardware.
In most of the world Final Fantasy gets a big portion of their sales from core gamers, however in Japan RPGs are a bit more of a casual genre and games such as DQ and FF gain a lot of sales from less committed gamers that are unlikely to invest in expensive hardware.
TheLegendaryN
Member
Very true. I think I should elaborate more on that 2m, which isn't FW, but lifetime.
Besides that Monster Hunter is a huge series in Japan, I think that by the time MHW releases in Japan in Early 2018, the Vita will be dead and a lot of people will shifted away, along with developers. There's a shift going on in Japan right now where the mobile hype is laying down, some developers get back to console, and we're getting a situation where console and mobile can coexist (even though I think console won't get its 6th/7th gen size back). We'll see how DQXI does next Wednesday. I'm one of the people who thinks DQXI will get more than 1m lifetime sales on PS4 (I can't find my prediction league entry quickly, but I think it was 1.3m or so). In the meantime, many developers are shifting away from the Vita and the results so far are mostly PS4 exclusive titles. That might change to PS4/Switch combo, but right now, it seems like developers are treating PS4 as the next big thing in the console space.
Furthermore, both Capcom and Sony (which is an important one) seem to be putting a lot of money into marketing the game. My guess is we'll see the whole circus, including demos, rows of people waiting to get the game, a limited edition PS4 console bundle, etc. By the time MHW releases (my guess is the last week of March, which is a traditionally big week, or the week before), I expect the domestic install base of the PS4 to have grown to 7 million. It's at 5m right now with steady growth of around 30k/week. Next week will be big, and the 12 weeks after should bring at least 360k units (with some very, very stupid math, but still). Let's keep it easy and say 5.5m at the end of October. In November and December, sales numbers will rise though. To compare to 2016, between Oct 31, 2016 and Jan 1, 2017, almost 700k units were sold. By Mar 26, 2017, the growth since Oct 31 was risen to 1.1m. I expect that number to be bigger this year because the reasons given above (to reach 7m LTD, that would mean 1.5m).
Now let's compare it to Final Fantasy XV. The marketing train was going in overdrive and I think it'll be a similar situation with Monster Hunter World. Some people in this thread say Monster Hunter is bigger than Final Fantasy nowadays, and I agree with them. But let's say it'll do similar. When FFXV released, the install base of PS4 was 3.75m and the game sold 690k copies (attach rate of 18.4%). When I apply that percentage to 7m, I have a number of 1290k FW already! Historically, Monster Hunter games have quite some legs, so my conclusion is that with the assumptions made above, it isn't unreasonable to expect MHW to make around 2 million in Japan alone.
Bruno MB
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) -
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) -
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) -
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) -
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: August 2 2017 09:00 am (EST)
Attention:
Rules:
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) -
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) -
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) -
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) -
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: August 2 2017 09:00 am (EST)
Attention:
- Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
- Multiplatform entries are the combined available sales of each platform described.
Rules:
- Do not edit your post after the deadline. If you do, you'll be disqualified.
- The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
- The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
- The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
- The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
- Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.
Gotdatmoney
Member
2m for MH:W? Naw fam come on.
Skullwaker
Member
That's interesting. I knew DQ was like that, but not FF and RPGs in general. Is there any genre that's considered core in Japan?
If DQ struggles much like FFXV struggled, I'd imagine MH will also struggle.
I don't think DQ will struggle like that. I think we'll see that there was something of a FFXV problem alongside the general PS4 problem and that there isn't a DQ problem.
I similarly think, atm, that World looks like it will do about as well as it could on PS4, which isn't saying much compared to what it could do elsewhere, but is saying, I believe, that it'll do better than FFXV did on PS4.
It just seems that it is about the best case for MH on PS4, i.e. it is not that heavily westernized fan nightmare that rumors suggested.
So I think that DQ PS4 and MH PS4 will both cross 1 million easier than FFXV did. I still think something like 1.5 million is probably their ceiling.
I don't think DQ will struggle like that. I think we'll see that there was something of a FFXV problem alongside the general PS4 problem and that there isn't a DQ problem.
I similarly think, atm, that World looks like it will do about as well as it could on PS4, which isn't saying much compared to what it could do elsewhere, but is saying, I believe, that it'll do better than FFXV did on PS4.
It just seems that it is about the best case for MH on PS4, i.e. it is not that heavily westernized fan nightmare that rumors suggested.
So I think that DQ PS4 and MH PS4 will both cross 1 million easier than FFXV did. I still think something like 1.5 million is probably their ceiling.
gundamkyoukai
Member
It going to be interesting to see what happens to MH if it get big \ do good in the west .
So World will sell double the previous highest home console Monster Hunter entry, and hundreds of thousands more than Final Fantasy or DQ- on a system that has so far seen franchise declines in many third party franchises.
Anything can happen, but that seems unlikely to me.
I don't know why you think MHW doing 1m or 1m+ in Japan is beating expectations.
It's a massive decline from previous entries and so far every time we hear for a Capcom title "west wiill make up for lost sales of dead Japan" it hasn't happened and this one is a heavily Japan focused.
Square Enix took a big step back from original plans with DQXI, nothing is guaranteed for MHW sales potential outside Japan.
Gotdatmoney
Member
The strategy is gonna be global from now on. They will have the spinoff team on handhelds until it's not viable but otherwise I don't see much changing. The games will be on consoles and PC going foward and we'll have to see if handhelds were the major limiter (personally I just think the 3DS was the major limiter).
I'm just talking my own personal expectations after the initial unveil+early rumors which made it seem very Western focused and unlikely to appeal to Japan.
Skullwaker
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) -600k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 300k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 45k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 25k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 200k
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) -600k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 300k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 45k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 25k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 200k
idk
TheLegendaryN
Member
Since the PSP releases, Monster Hunter has grown in popularity to insane heights. The handheld games have insane legs and sell tons of copies. My rough estimate for a console game like this is half of that. Although that first week estimate is probably too high, I think the sales in the following months will make up for it. I think it will sell at least 1.5m lifetime; that's similar to MHXX, for which the reception has been worse than the initial reception of MHW (which is all we have for now).
(Edit 9:57 PM UTC: The highest selling home console MH game is Monster Hunter Tri, which sold 1.9 million units. My estimate isn't close to 'double'. It's kind of similar.
Source: Capcom IR - Platinum Titles (see #33).)
That does raise the question of how do you bring a new, mainline FF to mobile, though.
Old entries can be cheap-ish ports with low sales/revenue ambitions to match the 'premium' market on mobile. And traditional, menu-driven JRPG at least also controls perfectly fine on mobile, although FF's insistence on action systems atm would make it less of a clean fit.
I'd imagine that a new entry would have to instead try and somehow convert the franchise to a mobile game, with things like characters, skills, weapons, levels tied to IAP and some way of turning the game into a continuing GaaS to keep the audience playing, which sounds more like a spin-off of the Final Fantasy brand than a mainline Final Fantasy, to me. Perhaps that thinking is just something SE would need to defy.
But it also probably doesn't help the series over-seas, which is a major component of FF's audience. Japanese mobile games are fairly idiosyncratic and have a hard time penetrating other markets.
...
Perhaps an alternate idea would be pushing FF on portable hardware first, and then releasing it on mobile afterwards with some IAP added, with less of an onus on high performance by the standards of the mobile market.
But then, portables are also not where the FF's western markets are.
I'm not going to get into a huge discussion because we'll just have to see- but you cite MH XX which has free local multiplayer- in comparison to World which will have no local play and require a PS plus sub to play online.
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 500k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 500k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 100k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 60k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 200k
Because MH blew up when it left home console, a much more popular home console even. Not sure if a reverse trick is gonna work. I also wonder what's PS+ subscription rate in Japan.
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 500k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 500k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 100k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 60k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 200k
Because MH blew up when it left home console, a much more popular home console even. Not sure if a reverse trick is gonna work. I also wonder what's PS+ subscription rate in Japan.
TheLegendaryN
Member
Fair point, although I think they'll be fine.
But yeah, you're right. We'll see when the game releases.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I don't see why SE has to change anything with FF .
They have there mobile versions which is making money in Japan .
They have there consoles version which sold less in Japan but sold really well WW .
Plus they have there online version .
What I'm seriously wondering is...which games could be featured among the "others" for the major new titles cathegory?
Those are all titles that get over 1,000,000 of units shipped and, at the current state, we have MvC:I, Monster Hunter: World...and my mind is completely blank at thinking what else could fit the bill:
- TGAA 2 is Japan only and it would've never done that anyway
- The Switch version of XX won't either
- Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen...mh, the more recent Steam re-release is now at over 700,000 owners, and a cheap re-release on brand new systems could potentially help in reaching the 1 million mark. Still very difficult though
- Resident Evil Revelations on PS4/One is another title with low chances of reaching that mark, considering the original's sales and how, contrary to DD, it's not considered such a huge and important RE game
So, what other titles could fit the "major new titles" cathegory? Could a Resident Evil 7 GOTY/Gold/Switch version be the missing element? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't think of anything else that could potentially be a million seller among them.
I wasn't saying they should tbc.
I always thought that they would release a RE7 Switch version this FY since it would explain their crazy expectation of 2M copies sold, but I'm starting to think that they just didn't thought very well their expectations.
Skullwaker
Member
That would make sense.
Which means it's completely out of the question for Capcom.
But I really, really hope they do.
Resident Evil 2 Remake
Bruno MB
Member
For reference:
[PS1] Dragon Quest VII: Warriors of Eden <RPG> (Enix) {2000.08.26} (¥7.800) - 1.640.318 / 3.502.383
[PS2] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King <RPG> (Square Enix) {2004.11.27} (¥9.240) - 994.407 / 3.231.288
[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies <RPG> (Square Enix) {2009.07.11} (¥5.980) - 1.153.304 / 3.496.744
Here the cumulative sales for weeks 2 to 5 for these mainline Dragon Quest titles.
It is worth noting that Dragon Quest VII: Warriors of Eden had a massive second week sales (1,1 million a record that has never been broken) because the game was supply constrained. A launch shipment of less than 2 million units was evidently not enough for the peak platform for the genre.
If that was going to be the case, I assume it would've already seen a formal announcement outside of the "we're making it!" video from years ago, especially considering the potential scope of the project.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I think it can sputter to 200K LTD-ish. But it will have to do so on the back of new Switch owners, not MH hardcore buyers.
Actually, let's try to go with some potential very optimistic estimates, so optimistic that maybe not even Capcom are going with them
Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite - 2 millions, nothing else to say
Monster Hunter: World - let's go with 4 millions, which would translate into a major decrease in Japan and a major increase in the West
In this case, 4,300,000 millions left. Let's see what else can be estimated
Ultra Street Fighter II - > 450,000
The Great Ace Attorney 2 - 200,000
Monster Hunter XX Switch Ver - 400,000
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen - 700,000
Resident Evil: Revelations - 600,000
Monster Hunter Stories Ver 1.2 - 60,000
Megaman Collection 2 - 400,000
Monster Hunter Frontier 10th Anniversary - 30,000
We'd get a total of > 2,840,000 units covered by going with the aforementioned optimistic estimates. USFII could end its run for the current FY at 800,000 (again, optimistic view), resulting in 3,190,000, thus 1,110,000 copies from the forecast that seem to not be covered by the other games.
Correct me if I've left anything outside of this analysis.
Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite - 2 millions, nothing else to say
Monster Hunter: World - let's go with 4 millions, which would translate into a major decrease in Japan and a major increase in the West
In this case, 4,300,000 millions left. Let's see what else can be estimated
Ultra Street Fighter II - > 450,000
The Great Ace Attorney 2 - 200,000
Monster Hunter XX Switch Ver - 400,000
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen - 700,000
Resident Evil: Revelations - 600,000
Monster Hunter Stories Ver 1.2 - 60,000
Megaman Collection 2 - 400,000
Monster Hunter Frontier 10th Anniversary - 30,000
We'd get a total of > 2,840,000 units covered by going with the aforementioned optimistic estimates. USFII could end its run for the current FY at 800,000 (again, optimistic view), resulting in 3,190,000, thus 1,110,000 copies from the forecast that seem to not be covered by the other games.
Correct me if I've left anything outside of this analysis.