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[noshten]

Fantastic debut for the PS4 version, still thinking the numbers for the 3DS show the decline of the system and it's active user-base which has been winding down last year and been anemic since the Switch release. Now I'm really curious to see if I was correct in thinking the PS4 version will have longer legs compared to the 3DS one.

So DQ and Splatoon 2 and a bunch of other games announced - this has the potential to be the biggest summer sales period since 2009 when Dragon Quest IX launched and was accompanied by MH 3, Wii Sport Resort and Tomodachi Collection.

Wonder if I will be proven correct and this summer ends up the biggest summer in terms of both sw and hw sales since 2009.

 

[Zedark]

I wonder if Switch stock is also going to be higher than pre-Splatoon, post-Splatoon. Could be a very good week wrt hardware.

There were significant restocks last week, so I expect a large number for Switch.

 

[LordKano]

Has PS4 ever sold more than 100k outside of Christmas season ?

 

[KtSlime]

I see 1 in stock for a scalper's price of 47k Yen and sold by a third party reseller: https://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B0722L4496/

A 3000 yen markup for a bundle is hardly a scalpers price, but yeah, it is slightly marked up my Amazon page which reports 1 without the bonus item and 8 with which are fulfilled by Amazon, and then a number of other retailers.

Neither LE is hard to get at the moment.

 

[PdotMichael]

Looks like healthy sales for DQ on PS4.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

This bodes well for MHW.

After all that 'PS4 surge' hype it ended up what was expected by almost everyone 3-4 weeks ago.

This revisionist history lol
Near 1 million FW was somehow "expected by almost everyone" hahaha
YSO were the ones who changed perception shortly before launch.

 

[AdventureRacing]

This is going to be a huge week for HW and SW. I think I asked the same last week but I'm wondering the last time we saw a non holiday week this big. Potentially 300K or more HW and 2.5 million or more SW.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

This bodes well for MHW.

It doesn't bode anything, if only because Dragon Quest is a beloved japanese franchise that has never been defined by its platform, unlike Monster Hunter. There's a lot more hurdles going for that release than Dragon Quest had, if they ever had any (aside from a likely low selling western release).

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

It doesn't bode anything, if only because Dragon Quest is a beloved japanese franchise that has never been defined by its platform, unlike Monster Hunter. There's a lot more hurdles going for that release than Dragon Quest had, if they ever had any (aside from a likely low selling western release).

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

I'm not talking about the PS4 itself, I'm talking about Monster Hunter. Dragon Quest has never been platform-centric, but Monster Hunter built its appeal on portability even with its various home console outings.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

It doesn't bode anything, if only because Dragon Quest is a beloved japanese franchise that has never been defined by its platform, unlike Monster Hunter. There's a lot more hurdles going for that release than Dragon Quest had, if they ever had any (aside from a likely low selling western release).

Ok so if Monster Hunter releases and sells well, how will you spin that?

 

[KtSlime]

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

All it shows is that the PS4 can support a million seller on opening week which is called Dragon Quest 11.

 

[MoonFrog]

It doesn't bode anything, if only because Dragon Quest is a beloved japanese franchise that has never been defined by its platform, unlike Monster Hunter. There's a lot more hurdles going for that release than Dragon Quest had, if they ever had any (aside from a likely low selling western release).

It does in the sense that DQ shows a much more promising result on PS4 than FFXV did. FFXV isn't the shape big franchises have to take on PS4. If DQXI had done similarly to FFXV, that'd have been an awful sign for MHW. It's a good sign that DQXI did markedly better instead.

Obviously that doesn't mean that "MH fails if XI fails and does well if XI does well" but it is a good (however weak) sign for that game hitting a million +.

But that'll still be massive losses in sales numbers in Japan and there won't be a 3DS version to bring it in line with previous results.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Ok so if Monster Hunter releases and sells well, how will you spin that?

I'd spin it as it overcame a bunch of hurdles and Dragon Quest's popularity and sales figures aren't in any way an indicator of it? Like what do you think I'm saying.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Two million, baby!

Famitsu reported that Dragon Quest XI has sold 2.080.806 units in the first two days!

We still have to wait for Media Create numbers.

I honestly expect 1 million sold on PS4 side via Media Create. Probably 100K PS4 hardware too. Since Media Create is the superior tracker after all

 

[AdventureRacing]

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

I agree with this and I think with the reception to MHW it may well sell in a similar ballpark to DQ. Ultimately though it still puts the game well short of previous Japanese versions and mostly relying on western sales to make up the difference (which I'm sure they're expecting).

 

[Sandfox]

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

Dragon Quest selling close to a million doesn't tell us anything about MHW.

 

[TheLegendaryN]

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

Because even FFXV didn't reach 1M within a reasonable amount of time, I think the concern was justified. Good to see that a half year later DQXI (almost) manages to reach that number within FW. Considering the Vita's recent decline, my guess is PS4 will have good rest-of-the-year results, so when MHW launches, the userbase will probably be much bigger than it is now.

 

[Sandfox]

Because even FFXV didn't reach 1M within a reasonable amount of time, I think the concern was justified. Good to see that a half year later DQXI (almost) manages to reach that number within FW. Considering the Vita's recent decline, my guess is PS4 will have good rest-of-the-year results, so when MHW launches, the userbase will probably be much bigger than it is now.

The PS4 doesn't really have any other notable games releasing until MHW.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Dragon Quest selling close to a million doesn't tell us anything about MHW.

But it tells us something about the PS4 which is the point he was making. Obviously monster hunter and dragon quest are different franchises and I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise. This at least shows the PS4 can support titles that sell 1 million plus first week. If DQ had opened similarly to FF15 it pretty much would have showed that no SW was going to open that high.

 

[Mpl90]

That's higher than what I expected for the PS4 version, thhe 3DS one falls into my expectations. Overall, didn't expect the debut to be so near DQIX's.

Yes, it's true, the 3DS version would have surely sold more if it was released like 1-2 years ago, when the platform was healthier as a whole, and it's entirely possible it could've reached 2 millions on 3DS alone back then...but the multi-platform approach still worked pretty well for SE, even more than I expected.

3DS hardware numbers are high, it was a good idea to have a special model of the recently released cheaper model alongside its launch.
PS4 numbers are a bit lower than what could be expected given how high the game's debut was, and they haven't shattred the Japanese market [semicit.], but they're still good.

For both, it will be interesting to see the post-launch performance, especially considering how both platforms won't have such relevant lineups in the immediate future. Actually, later I'll post the lineups for both consoles up to the end of the year, in order to have a clearer idea of the situation.

 

[Eolz]

Oh we're already back to MonHun talk?

Good numbers overall. Really good for PS4, not so good for 3ds (but it'll likely have great legs) and not really good for the franchise as a whole...
That said, S-E obviously expected that since they've already announced the localization unlike usual.

 

[test_account]

YSO got 3DS spot on, but went bullish on PS4.

Pretty sure avg was 1m for both, so PS4 prediction was closer.

Yep, YSO had both version at less than 1.1 million (which i presume are the highest predictions out of all of them in YSO?), and the average predicition for both versions was indeed 1 million. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244280154&postcount=791

After all that 'PS4 surge' hype it ended up what was expected by almost everyone 3-4 weeks ago.

I dont know about that. Going by the Prediction Leauge, the average prediction here for the PS4 version was about 763k, about 190k less than what it actually sold. If you remove the highest and lowest predictions, i guess its somewhere around maybe 800k, which is still a noticeably number away from 950k.

The average for the 3DS version was about 1109k.


PS: Are the Prediction Leauge based on Famitsu or Media Create by the way?

3DS sold more hardware ? Like, how ? Was the PS4 themed console that ugly ?

Is the PS4 edition still widely available for sale?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Dragon Quest selling close to a million doesn't tell us anything about MHW.

All it shows is that the PS4 can support a million seller on opening week which is called Dragon Quest 11.

I'm not talking about the PS4 itself, I'm talking about Monster Hunter. Dragon Quest has never been platform-centric, but Monster Hunter built its appeal on portability even with its various home console outings.

This is not a hard concept. DQ11's launch tells us about the upper limits of software on the PS4 platform. An upper limit than many thought was 1 million or even less. This in turn offers the possibility of MHW opening at a larger amount than previously thought.

 

[marmoka]

The Dragon Quest thirst was real in Japan

 

[TheLegendaryN]

The PS4 doesn't really have any other notable games releasing until MHW.

No things that will sell huge amounts of copies yeah, but thee are still a lot of games coming out in the meantime and while previously those games would also come to Vita, now many don't. The PS4 lost a big competitor in that sense. There will be buzz around the PS4, so that's good. And there's always back catalogue games like Final Fantasy XV, NieR: Automata, and now Dragon Quest XI.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I'd spin it as it overcame a bunch of hurdles and Dragon Quest's popularity and sales figures aren't in any way an indicator of it? Like what do you think I'm saying.

I look at sales of DQ and FFXV and I see a trend where the userbase is slowly building up so that it can result in a good launch for major games.

I don't think MHW will open to 950k, but it will come closer to this number when all is said and done. Because the install base for PS4 is slowly rising so sales will naturally get better with it. Right now, people are still buying new PS4 so the console is still building fanbase, even if slowly over time.

 

[Branduil]

I don't really see any connection between a mainline Dragon Quest game and home console Monster Hunter.

 

[LizardKing]

This is not a hard concept. DQ11's launch tells us about the upper limits of software on the PS4 platform. An upper limit than many thought was 1 million or even less. This in turn offers the possibility of MHW opening at a larger amount than previously thought.

I don't really see any connection between a mainline Dragon Quest game and home console Monster Hunter.

This. DQXI tells you about as much about MHW sales as it tells you about Knack 2 sales. In other words, nothing. It's not going to test the limits of PS4 sale potential and it has no correlation to either the genre, past success on consoles or history of the franchise. Saying a game (DQXI no less) can sell a million FW on PS4 means nothing for MHW.

 

[Kresnik258]

Wonder how close DQXI was to DQIX with digital.

 

[MoonFrog]

I don't really see any connection between a mainline Dragon Quest game and home console Monster Hunter.

This is the sort of conditional I'm seeing:

Assumption: If DQ has the anemic performance FF has, then MH will also perform poorly.

The antecedent is now taken as false, so the consequent is not necessitated (on these grounds at least).

That doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That conditional is still true if the antecedent is false and the consequent is true after all.

But it does put us, by the lights of the assumption, in a world where MHW could do "well," rather than one where it couldn't.

About the assumption: obviously, it could've been that DQ XI and FF both had a problem wrt Japan and then MH did "well." So this sort of if, then presentation of the thought is already a guess of how things are likely to turn out. And if you don't remove the hedging words, the sort of point I'm making doesn't come through.

It is just expressing a belief that a world where both FF and DQ struggled on a console is probably a world where MH would struggle too.

About "well:" DQ XI PS4 isn't going to do "DQ numbers" alone. Nor is MHW going to do "MH numbers." Expectation is set to being an easy million seller is doing well.

 

[L~A]

Only surprising bit for me is 3DS at 126k, was expecting something closer to 100k max than this. Guess they really nailed the timing of the N2DSXL release.

Would be great if we could somehow get data for:

- amount of double-dippers
- how many people own both 3DS and PS4 and got only 3DS/PS4 version

Unfortunately, I doubt even Famitsu or MC have data for #2.

 

[LizardKing]

This is the sort of conditional I'm seeing:

Assumption: If DQ has the anemic performance FF has, then MH will also perform poorly.

The antecedent is now taken as false, so the consequent is not necessitated (on these grounds at least).

That doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That conditional is still true if the antecedent is false and the consequent is true after all.

But it does put us, by the lights of the assumption, in a world where MHW could do "well," rather than one where it couldn't.

About the assumption: obviously, it could've been that DQ XI and FF both had a problem wrt Japan and then MH did "well." So this sort of if, then presentation of the thought is already a guess of how things are likely to turn out. And if you don't remove the hedging words, the sort of point I'm making doesn't come through.

It is just expressing a belief that a world where both FF and DQ struggled on a console is probably a world where MH would struggle too.

About "well:" DQ XI PS4 isn't going to do "DQ numbers" alone. Nor is MHW going to do "MH numbers." Expectation is set to being an easy million seller is doing well.

If DQXI had sold 700k would people really have a different outlook about MHW? I think if you thought MHW would do FFXVish numbers before this, you probably still think that. And if DQXI had sold the same it's FW would that really have changed anything? Especially when you can just wave away lower sales due to the 3ds version.

 

[LordKano]

If DQXI had sold 700k would people really have a different outlook about MHW? I think if you thought MHW would do FFXVish numbers before this, you probably still think that. And if DQXI had sold the same it's FW would that really have changed anything?

Yeah this, I don't see how DQXI selling 200k more than expected at launch is supposed to change anything concerning MHW.

 

[TheLegendaryN]

Only surprising bit for me is 3DS at 126k, was expecting something closer to 100k max than this. Guess they really nailed the timing of the N2DSXL release.

Would be great if we could somehow get data for:

- amount of double-dippers
- how many people own both 3DS and PS4 and got only 3DS/PS4 version

Unfortunately, I doubt even Famitsu or MC have data for #2.

Media Create usually list separate editions, such as Double Packs. I hope (and think) they'll do it for the PS4/3DS bundle version.

 

[Alrus]

Good debut for DQ. It's not the best opening but it's still close. I'm very interested to see how it performs in the next few weeks.

Also you guys don't need to make everything about MHW...

Wonder how close DQXI was to DQIX with digital.

People are already ass pulling digital numbers for some reason. We'll never know them anyway (considering it's been shown that the Famitsu digital estimates are most likely inaccurate at best).

 

[Sandfox]

This is not a hard concept. DQ11's launch tells us about the upper limits of software on the PS4 platform. An upper limit than many thought was 1 million or even less. This in turn offers the possibility of MHW opening at a larger amount than previously thought.

DQXI doesn't really tell us the upper limit of PS4 software.

 

[MoonFrog]

Only surprising bit for me is 3DS at 126k, was expecting something closer to 100k max than this. Guess they really nailed the timing of the N2DSXL release.

Would be great if we could somehow get data for:

- amount of double-dippers
- how many people own both 3DS and PS4 and got only 3DS/PS4 version

Unfortunately, I doubt even Famitsu or MC have data for #2.

Yeah I'm very curious about these things.

A larger percentage of PS4 owners own a 3DS than the other way around, so I imagine PS4 leads wrt the second? But that's guessing overlap is high for PS4 owners and thinking PS4 numbers would be lower if 3DS were seriously eating into its player base.

Would be interesting how "both" fares in that intersection.

If DQXI had sold 700k would people really have a different outlook about MHW? I think if you thought MHW would do FFXVish numbers before this, you probably still think that. And if DQXI had sold the same it's FW would that really have changed anything? Especially when you can just wave away lower sales due to the 3ds version.

I don't have a solid idea of what MH will do. DQ doing well just lifts the ceiling going forward. DQ doing poorly puts that prediction ceiling lower. Obviously the way the lead up to MH's launch will color in where it fits, but DQ provides a bit of framing and an idea about PS4.

Idk if this is the sort of thing others are suggesting and I'm trying to point out how it's not determining anything or making me super gung-ho, but it does add to the picture going forward.

 

[PdotMichael]

Who thought that >1million seller on the PS4 of a multiplatform title somehow tell us anything about an exclusive Monter Hunter title.

 

[cw_sasuke]

DQXI doesn't really tell us the upper limit of PS4 software.

...it doesnt ? Its the biggest game the console has received yet.

 

[Magicpaint]

DQXI doesn't really tell us the upper limit of PS4 software.

Of course it does. It's a mainline DQ game. Can't think of much else that could rival it on PS4 short of MHW really over-performing current expectations.

 

[sphinx]

...it doesnt ? Its the biggest game the console has received yet.

The idea is that people buying this game are the DQ fanbase, not the PS4/3DS existing/future fanbases.

so theoretically if DQ11 was exclusive to X1 in japan, it would still sell in the vicinity of 2 million.

such fact wouldn't be taken as proof that the X1 provides a good and healthy enviroment for japanese software. .

 

[Sandfox]

...it doesnt ? Its the biggest game the console has received yet.

It's the biggest game on the platform, but calling it the limit means that something like an exclusive DQ in the same conditions wouldn't have blown past that limit.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

Of course it does. It's a mainline DQ game. Can't think of much else that could rival it on PS4 short of MHW really over-performing current expectations.

We would have known the upper limit if this was only available on PS4.

 

[Aostia]

Yes it does. It clearly shows PS4 can support near million sellers in its first week. LTD for DQ11 will probably be near 1.5 million again showing PS4 is capable of million+ sellers.

These are two things many in this thread outright refused before DQ11 launched.

I think many expected DQXI to be million seller on PS4.
What surprises here is that it did that at debut (almost), so it will probably be able to have a higher LTD (1.5 seems totally doable now!)
But seriously, nobody doubted a mainline DQ to sell strongly on a home console.
With MH it will have to prove way more than DQ, in being able to sell that much on a home console.
Isn't the portable/home exactly the reason (the ONLY reason) why Capcom move seems "bold" for the Japanese market?
DQXI performance doubts were based on the weak home segment compared to the past, and to the fact that there was also a 3DS version planned, that would have sold better.
In fact, we are not seeing a 3 millions sold for the PS4 version, as an exclusive main line DQ would have to do (but wouldn't be able on PS4 alone).
With MH the topic is that it historically have seen its succed heavily based on the portable nature of the hw, on the local multiplayer gameplay, with the best selling mainline game on home console able to sell 1.1 million in Japan so far.

I mean: surely DQ will help MHW enlarging the install base, bringing in a wider and more varied target audience, and showing how strong games can sell around 1 million on PS4 in Japan, but I think that what MHW will have to demonstrate is that the brand is strong enough to sell millions even without the portability and local multiplayer aspects

Am I wrong?

 

[extralite]

The idea is that people buying this game are the DQ fanbase, not the PS4/3DS existing/future fanbases.

so theoretically if DQ11 was exclusive to X1 in japan, it would still sell in the vicinity of 2 million.

such fact wouldn't be taken as proof that the X1 provides a good and healthy enviroment for japanese software. .

If that were true they could have just released it only on PS4 without the 3DS version. Buying a console for just one game is not an option for everyone. It actually is only an option for very few people.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

If that were true they could have just released it only on PS4 without the 3DS version. Buying a console for just one game is not an option for everyone. It actually is only an option for very few people.

Just one game... DQXI is the game that pushes people to buy. I am pretty sure people that buy a console, 3 years in it's life-cycle, for one game, are in the minority.

 

[duckroll]

If DQXI had sold 700k would people really have a different outlook about MHW? I think if you thought MHW would do FFXVish numbers before this, you probably still think that. And if DQXI had sold the same it's FW would that really have changed anything? Especially when you can just wave away lower sales due to the 3ds version.

Errr. If DQXI sold 700k, I would have a very different outlook for MHW than I do now. My outlook is that MHW is a tough sell in Japan, and it needs the PS4 to move as close as possible to at least the late PS3 ecosystem to have a chance of doing well. This means big games need to have big impact, to show PS4 owners have a proportional response. There needs to be more titles being able to do >500k, gamers with western taste need to be on the system. The same sort of conditions that made GTAV a surprise hit in Japan would be beneficial to MHW taking off as well.

DQXI selling 700k would show that even DQ can't get the userbase more excited, and that would be bad. 950k shows that DQ being a big brand without FF's baggage can still excite console players, even with a 3DS version out there. By themselves singular data points tell us very little about what another title might sell, but they do act as markers on the health of the ecosystem, especially big notable releases. Actual conclusions about how a specific title could tell would have to be made based on a collection of such data points, along with seeing how a product is marketed, how receptive people are to the marketing, the timing of the release, and what other announcements are made between now and the release.

The idea is that people buying this game are the DQ fanbase, not the PS4/3DS existing/future fanbases.

so theoretically if DQ11 was exclusive to X1 in japan, it would still sell in the vicinity of 2 million.

such fact wouldn't be taken as proof that the X1 provides a good and healthy enviroment for japanese software. .

Except such a theory has no basis in reality.

 

[Aostia]

wait, is people saying that they could have developed DQXI as an Xbox 1 esclusive and still be able to sell 2 millions at launch?


:\

 

[Kenzodielocke]

wait, is people saying that they could have developed DQXI as an Xbox 1 esclusive and still be able to sell 2 millions at launch?


:\

A fantasy based on a fantasy.