i think sony doesn't really care about how the ps3 is doing against the wii when the two have been a lot closer than usual lately. it's not like sony makes a lot of money selling their own ps3 games, so having a big userbase at this point is only good for gathering support for the next generation. with companies looking at the west, i'm not sure how this helps them.
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Media Create Sales: Week 33, 2012 (Aug 13 - Aug 19)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
i think sony doesn't really care about how the ps3 is doing against the wii when the two have been a lot closer than usual lately. it's not like sony makes a lot of money selling their own ps3 games, so having a big userbase at this point is only good for gathering support for the next generation. with companies looking at the west, i'm not sure how this helps them.
Canis lupus
Member
No doubt it will happen in the next 4 5 months.
Nightstick11
Banned
All is well in the Mushroom Kingdom
Distraction from the (actually amusing this time, with all the disguised attacks at the opposing company or maybe I've been medicated without knowing) fanboy discussion.
Candidates for the September predictions (08/27 to 09/30).
Pick your favorites, suggest others.
08/30 Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (3DS)
08/30 Senran Kagura Burst (3DS)
08/30 Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (PSV)
08/30 Gundam AGE (PSP)
08/30 Hyperdimension Neptunia V (PS3)
08/30 Sengoku Basara HD Collection (PS3)
09/06 Lost Heroes (3DS/PSP)
09/13 Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (PS3/360)
09/13 Accel World Stage 01 (PSP/PS3)
09/13 Medabots 7 (3DS)
09/13 Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3DS)
09/20 Final Fantasy III (PSP)
09/20 Hunter X Hunter: Wonder Adventure (PSP)
09/27 Dynasty Warriors 7 Empires (PS3)
09/27 SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (PSP)
09/27 Dead or Alive 5 (PS3/360)
09/27 Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (PSV)
Also, the multi-platform releases have been combined, to reduce the options (yes, I change my mind every month).
Candidates for the September predictions (08/27 to 09/30).
Pick your favorites, suggest others.
08/30 Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers (3DS)
08/30 Senran Kagura Burst (3DS)
08/30 Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (PSV)
08/30 Gundam AGE (PSP)
08/30 Hyperdimension Neptunia V (PS3)
08/30 Sengoku Basara HD Collection (PS3)
09/06 Lost Heroes (3DS/PSP)
09/13 Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (PS3/360)
09/13 Accel World Stage 01 (PSP/PS3)
09/13 Medabots 7 (3DS)
09/13 Samurai Warriors Chronicle 2nd (3DS)
09/20 Final Fantasy III (PSP)
09/20 Hunter X Hunter: Wonder Adventure (PSP)
09/27 Dynasty Warriors 7 Empires (PS3)
09/27 SD Gundam G Generation Overworld (PSP)
09/27 Dead or Alive 5 (PS3/360)
09/27 Ys: Foliage Ocean in Celceta (PSV)
Also, the multi-platform releases have been combined, to reduce the options (yes, I change my mind every month).
electroplankton
Banned
Those.
This is also about the timeframe of PSV reaching one million in Japan if you go by the lower tracker.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Comgnet is a chain of stores that sells games. Those are their pre-order sales rankings. How a point translates into a sale within the chain is not something that's known, but more importantly, how sales within the chain map to sales across the country is different for every game and every series, so you can't just say that <x> points will map to <y> sales.
Soul Hackers, Senran Kagura, Hatsune Miku, TTT2, Medabots 7, SWC2nd, SD Gundam, DoA5, Ys.
P4G boosted Vita sales to 30k-35k, and I doubt Miku could do any better. The race between 8 mil 3DS and 1 mil Vita is going to be close...
aiming really high.
Who the fuck cares how many games reach 2 million LTD in Japan? What do think 2D Mario is, a normal game?
Most of them.
test_account
XP-39C²
True, but why shouldnt the success continue there as well? The reason why series sell less is because people get less interested in them, i dont see why Mario should be "excluded" from this comparison. Afterall, NSMBU will be the 4th NSMB game since 2005, so the serie have been relatively active.
I think that the userbase is smaller than what the sales numbers shows because the PSP have had 3 revisions (4 if you count PSP Go). I'm sure there are some overlapping here. Nothing much to discuss though since finding exactly how much overlapping there is will be impossible. But the Wii had many big sellers regardless.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
My picks.
The Horror the horror
Banned
Those are Holiday numbers, and we've not even entered Fall.
slaughterking
Member
And sad, too.
Perhaps this better illustrates the point.
Also, somebody please update the graph! It'd be nice to have an updated version
Well then, what's your definition of success?
I agree with chris that 2M LTD for NSMBU would absolutely be a disappointing result given the pedigree of the brand. But at the same time, some historical context has to be taken into account as well.
Going by Famitsu, and looking at main releases (no Best Price reprints), expecting 4.5M again from NSMBU is basically expecting historical perfection. That's not to say that it will or won't happen, but historically, that is pretty much the highest possible bar that one could set. No home console game has sold 4M units since the NES. Nothing on Wii (except NSMB), nothing on PS3, or PS2, or PS1, or GC, or N64, or SNES, etc.
So NSMBWii is the only home console game to break the 4M barrier in like 25 years. That needs to be taken into account when it comes to expectations as well. 2D Mario is the cream of the crop in gaming brands (alongside Pokemon), but there are still historical realities that shouldn't just be blithely dismissed either.
Ah, memories! Always loved this chart.
electroplankton
Banned
Because DS, and Wii to a less extent, where phenomena that will hardly be repeated (and that doesn't coincide necessarily with their LTD), because NSMB on Wii has been THE game to buy since its launch, because NSMB on DS was the first new Mario in 2D since early Ninenties, because Super Mario 3D Land proved to be a strong Mario despite being 3D, and many other factors we still don't know (Wii U hasn't been released yet).
MasterSheen
Member
Not even close.
People's perception would probably be slightly different if they released NSMB2 last year, and SM3DL this year (with NSMBU), as opposed to how they went about it.
If anybody cares:
02./00. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 90.039 / NEW
06./00. [WII] Just Dance Wii 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.07.26} (¥5.800) - 60.121 / NEW
4 weeks later (roughly):
[WII] Just Dance Wii - 24,636 / 190,622
[WII] Just Dance Wii 2 - 23.231 / 137.423
If anybody cares:
02./00. [WII] Just Dance Wii <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.10.13} (¥5.800) - 90.039 / NEW
06./00. [WII] Just Dance Wii 2 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.07.26} (¥5.800) - 60.121 / NEW
4 weeks later (roughly):
[WII] Just Dance Wii - 24,636 / 190,622
[WII] Just Dance Wii 2 - 23.231 / 137.423
There aren't many who expect NSMB U to top NSMB W but at the same time it's very important the fact that it will most likely be a launch/close to launch title for the Wii U, showing how much Nintendo counts on it. A result of 2 million (basically anything significantly less than 3 million I believe) means that it won't be the title that will drive hw sales for a console that once again at least in the beginning will have to rely on first party efforts.
When the really heavy hitter fails to play its role you can't expect many things at the future.
ShockingAlberto
Member
NSMBU's existence as a launch game could work both for and against it. It won't have a userbase to draw off of, but could benefit from being the main game picked up with the system.
electroplankton
Banned
There are still many things we don't know, though. Price, for example... Even Nintendogs+Cats should have been a system seller, many people thought, since it sold so well on DS, but price prevented the target to jump on board during the first months, and therefore the game sold way less than the first entry (even if it could catch hit somehow, but I doubt it). Moreover, there might be a game that substitute NSMB sales during Wii U second year, like a 3D Mario that people will particularly love (just an example). 2mln must be in a context; I do believe they'd be poor sales, but still enough to be profitable I guess.
metalslimer
Member
Why are people even debating whether 2 million would be a good result for nambu. It would be a nightmare for nintendo. It would be like seeing the next mainline pokemon sell 2.5 million. Nintendo relies on massive sales from these games to keep the company in the black. It isnt just about the game itself being profitable.
Do you expect the game to get to 2 million and just die off? It's going to sell alongside the Wii U and will probably sell well for the entire course of the Wii U's shelf life. It's not going to come out and sell 2 million Wii U's in the launch window but will probably consistently be in the top 20 charts for as long as the Wii U has momentum. It's just absolutely mind boggling that you can say selling 2 million is an absolute failure. You should've just said "If Mario U fails to sell Wii U systems then it will have failed." which is something I would actually agree with.
metalslimer
Member
Chris was responding to someone who said 2 million ltd which means lifetime sales
Do you understand what we are talking about? 2 million LTD, not first month or first year or first 2 years. 2 million LTD means NSMB U failed to to sell Wii U systems, it's very simple.
electroplankton
Banned
Unless Wii U sells exactly 2 million units!
test_account
XP-39C²
I'm actually not making any predictions about how much NSMBU will sell, i'm just wondering why it shouldnt be compared to previous entries in the serie if it sells less. But i see now that maybe it was more a comment that sales of NSMB and NSMBW caliber shouldnt be expected for 3DS and WiiU.
I do agree that it wont be surprising if it sells less, but i think it should be fine to compare it to other games in the serie. The PS2 was also a phenomena, so we can say that it makes sense why many games sold less on the PS3 (sold much less and it was much more expencive), but comparisons to serie decline were still discussed, talked about and compared.
EDIT: After reading your first post again, i guess maybe you mean that using NSMBW as a bar for success or not is too high, i agree to that. But if they sell much less, it shows serie decline, i just ment to say that i think it is fair to do this comparison.
Not at all. If NSMB U comes out and sells the Wii U for the first year two until other heavy hitting titles like Mario Kart, Smash Bros, etc come out then it will have done it's job even if it "only" sold 2 million LTD.
Regardless it's an asinine theory because the possibility of it only selling 2 million LTD is near zero.
He chose his wording poorly. I think he meant "leave the Top 20/30 at 2m," which still wouldn't really be a good result. For reference, NSMB DS left the Top 20 (Famitsu) for the first time at 4.8m, and NSMB Wii left the Top 20 (Famitsu) for the first time at 3.9m.
electroplankton
Banned
It's also true that Nintendo will use DLC with both NSMB, therefore money will come in any way.
I'd say DLCs will help both games selling through time, improving their legs. Not only about mere money from people buying DLCs.
Yeah, 3M is probably the bar that I'd set for not being a disappointment. 3M is a top-tier elite result for any home console game in Japan. 3.5M would be a very strong result, and 4M again for NSMBU would be an outstanding result.
People wanna have that pervy upskirt miku vita dude
2 million LTD for NSMB U means you are looking at a 12-months result close to 1 million. Good luck selling Wii U consoles with that number, waiting for the next hitters to come. GameCube was about to explode every time a new Nintendo major title came out when the previous failed.
The problem would be the entirety of the Wii U would have failed, not just NSMB U. Mario is going to be a great system launch game for sure but if people are willing to buy a home console to play it is something that I'm interested to see how it plays out. We need more concrete details about the date, price, other launch games first.
And for the record are you implying or believing that NSMB U is realistically going to sell only 2 million LTD in Japan?
you should go back and read instead of just spouting like a mad man
What I expect for NSMB U and Wii U is irrelevant to this conversation.
What makes you think that would happen.
He's not talking about how Mario and Wii U will do, calm down.