Bomb? All you have to do is looks at B/W2 numbers, which is on a last gen system to know that Pokemon is going to do anything BUT bomb. I would say it's the most consistent handheld franchise in history, and assuming the new gen is a decent step forward (Which I think it may well be), this isn't going to change anytime soon.
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Media Create Sales: Week 33, 2012 (Aug 13 - Aug 19)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
How is it spouting? I'm saying if NSMB U sells 2 million LTD then Nintendo would have failed to sold the entire concept of the Wii U. Yeah, NSMB U is a title along with that but to say that Mario alone is the sole factor in the success OR failure of the Wii U is ridiculous when right now there are too many unknowns concerning the Wii U other than that it's launching with a NSMB game.
So you want to talk about how NSMB U will have failed if it only sold 2 million LTD in Japan but you won't answer if you actually believe that it'll happen?
Um, yes? What don't you understand? I'll give a prediction if and when I want since this has nothing to do with the original argument.
Okay, buddy.
My, my... so if NSMBU is profitable then Nintendo should be happy? BIG LOL here, my god! And people wanting answers from Chris... I'm sorry for you Chris but seeing this you should go back to your 2-3 one liners posts per Media Create thread hahaha 
Believe! ;D
Wow. Onitore dropped during Obon week. Guess the Brain Training ship really has sailed in Japan.
Believe! ;D
Oh, I'm sorry >_< forgot this was a sales thread. Lol I used bomb as in "Iwata drop the bomb"
Not that I think it's going to bomb in the charts, quite the contrary.
To be fair, it's way too early to be trying to predict anything anyway. Most people didn't expect Vita to be doing this badly (heck, I was one of the few who expected it to be a failure - and even I didn't expect it to be this bad. I was thinking it would be in a struggle to reach 2M by the end of its 2nd XMas. Instead, it's struggling for 1.5M) so they would have miscalculated the software sales for Vita. The userbase is going to give Miku a kick in the nuts, and even P4G looks like it was hurt by the userbase. It performed well compared to previous entries, but looking at P4Arena at just about 200k already - it seems like P4G probably could have cleared 300k fairly easily on a healthier platform due to the increased popularity of the Persona brand right now.
Getting back to WiiU, we don't know anything about the system yet. What's the price? What comes bundled with the system? What do 3rd-parties appear to be working on? Hell, we don't even know the launch date or launch lineup yet.
Any kind of prediction at this point would be nothing more than a random shot in the dark.
Yeah I know and I said there are way too many unknowns to say how it will do either way so I'm not sure why there's so much discussion on it selling only 2 million LTD.
The real crazy thing to think about is that the much hated UMD format is what is holding back PS Vita sales in Japan. If it had UMD built in it would have been bulkier and more expensive, but it also probably would have gobbled up most of the PSP's 2012 sales. PSP+Vita isn't earth shaking but its quite a bit more impressive than Vita alone.
Well, it's not about making a prediction though. I think most of us can agree that Nintendo is planning for the game to sell more than 2M copies. They are using this game to help give people a reason to buy WiiU from the get-go, and they want NSMBU to help build a healthy userbase for them to sell their other 1st-party software throughout the generation.
Whether it will meet or exceed those numbers is nothing but a prediction at this point, but I can't imagine anyone arguing that Nintendo is aiming for a LTD of only 2M for NSMBU.
I mentioned this before a few months ago, but looking at just how awful Vita sales have been - I think Sony would have been far better off including a UMD drive in the Vita. It would definitely have been bulkier and less sexy, but honestly, the system has only sold to the most die-hard fans at this point anyway. Could sales really be much worse than 850k at this point, even with a bulkier system? The die-hards probably would have still scooped up a good 700k of a UMD Vita up to now anyway.
So sales wouldn't be much worse, and might even have been better due to bringing over more PSP customers with UMD collections. But either way, it then leaves the door open for them to relaunch the system a year later with the current Vita, which would be a huge improvement over the UMD model, and would be absolutely stunning in comparison (think DSLite vs. DSPhat) - add in a lower price point and better battery life with the UMD drive removed, and then Sony gets a chance to generate some genuine excitement over the Vita again and give it a chance at a real re-launch.
Sony obviously wasn't expecting things to be this abysmal for Vita - so this plan only works in retrospect. But looking back now at how shitty things have been - that would have been a far better course of action.
test_account
XP-39C²
It would be really impressive if an enhanced port for 5980 yen had sold basically the same as the first release on PS2. I think maybe it could have sold a bit more with a bigger userbase, but i'm not sure about 100k more.
Persona 4 Arena is probably selling well because of the Persona popularity (as one factor) indeed, but it is however a completely different game. It is also a brand new game. The setting of the game, being able to fight Persona characters against eachother, is probably also very compelling for the fans, possibly more than what an enhanced port would do i would guess. But it also depends if one like fighting games or RPGs the most.
It shall be interesting to see what Shin Megami Tensei 5 will sell, being a brand new game and the popularity of the serie being strong at this time.
It's just speculation on my part - but Persona 4 Arena is a spin-off game in a completely unrelated genre which has sold just as well as P4G on Vita. Not only that, but P4Arena is selling just as well/better than all of the well-established heavy hitters in the fighting genre, and it is doing so based on the strength of the Persona name.
The Persona brand seems stronger now than it was when P3Portable was released, yet it didn't sell much better than P3Portable. Not only that but P3Portable sold just as well as Persona 3 on the PS2 - so within the confines of the Persona games it wouldn't be all that unusually impressive for P4G to sell on par with P4 PS2.
The Persona brand just seems to be (speaking as someone from outside Japan who doesn't really know) stronger now than it was a few years ago. So yeah - I suspect that P4G had its sales cut short by selling to such a tiny userbase.
As I said though - it's nothing but pure speculation on my part. But after seeing how well P4Arena has sold, it seems like P4G sold less than it should have.
Well, actually: no.
He was replying to me, assuming that I was talking about LTD figures. But I nevere used the"LTD" word...
I explained better (I though..) my wider, larger reasoning describing the 2 millions as actual charting numbers for the initial period of WiiU lifetime, while we know that Mario titles can sell for the entire console lifecicle also outside the charts.
Again: no. this was not was I was talking about.
So, someone actually read my post! YaY!
Probably right, but i NEVER claimed those numbers as LTD numbers. I know which is the meaning of LTD...
Looking at your updated numbers, I still stand with my opinion: I think that a launch game can sell 2 mil before going out of the top20, it will help a lot the console on which it is.
I don't know how many games in the history of Japan sales were able to do that.
And no, I don't think that New Mario is a normal game, in fact I repeat: I don't know how many launch games were able to sell 2mil before going out of the top20 (without helping the console)
It seems that if you don't repeat records, you'll fail, sometimes. And I don't think so, especially for first party titles.
Due to the interested on this "LTD" figures, I think that to be a success the LTD numbers should be at least slighlty over 3 millions (and it would be possible to reach that ltd if it's able to sell 2 mil before going outside the chart, looking at your previous Famitsu figures)
test_account
XP-39C²
Persona 3 sold 100k less than Persona 4 though. Persona 3 was released in 2006, while P3P was released over 3 years later. Maybe this have something to do with it. On the other hand, recent P2P sold under 100k, being on the PSP. That is why i think that it comes more down to the game itself. I think that P4Arena has things going for it, while and enhanced port is more limited in this area. But this is also just speculation on my side.
Is it like normal fighting game, that each character has a intro and an ending, telling something story related to the character?
BishopLamont
Banned
If Mario does 2M before dropping out of the charts, it means its practically done selling. So the whole LTD thing is irrelevant. If it is indeed a system seller its never going to drop out of the charts until its practically done selling as much as the eventual LTD will be.
If I had to predict, I'd say it has a chance to top NSMBW or at least come close to it, being a launch title and all. It all comes down to whether launching early can offset the massive first few weeks of sales that NSMBW had when it launched with the big userbase. Being such a strong system seller historically, I think this will be the case. Of course other variables like how well the Wii U does in general will affect it, but I'd say the Wii U is coming at the right time to replicate the 3DS/Vita situation, at least in Japan.
If I had to predict, I'd say it has a chance to top NSMBW or at least come close to it, being a launch title and all. It all comes down to whether launching early can offset the massive first few weeks of sales that NSMBW had when it launched with the big userbase. Being such a strong system seller historically, I think this will be the case. Of course other variables like how well the Wii U does in general will affect it, but I'd say the Wii U is coming at the right time to replicate the 3DS/Vita situation, at least in Japan.
Uhm: no.
NSMB DS left the Top 20 (Famitsu) for the first time at 4.8m. It's now around 6.3 millions.
NSMB Wii left the Top 20 (Famitsu) for the first time at 3.9m. andt it's now around 4.5 millions.
A launch game will have more years to continue selling also outsinde the charts.
That said, I was just saying that a game as that can sell less than the previous but still be a system seller able to help the console.
How much this "less" must be to be considered successfull or not, it's up to each and everyone of us, I think.
My picks.
BishopLamont
Banned
Wii U obviously won't do DS numbers and going from 3.9M to 4.5M is not much of a difference is it?
To me, yes. 600K is a big difference. especially if someone think that 3mil is ok and 2.5 is not, for example. and I repeat that being a launch title will help its "out of charts" legs compared to the wii one.
that said, to me this discussion could be considered over, let's go back to the actual data
New Mario 2 is doing fine but not great, also if is helping 3ds to keep the momentum
You're joking right? 600k is a sales figure that, by itself, is highly coveted by any publisher. Especially on a home console.
600k is huge. Very few console games reach that kind of numbers in Japan these days. Well aside from Nintendo's.
+1.
By Nintendo evergreen titles standards, 600k is not as much, but absolutely, it's a huge difference. I would like Skyward Sword to have +600k ^^
test_account
XP-39C²
I think he just ment that looking at 3.9m and 4.5m, the difference doesnt look that big because both numbers are high. If a game sells even more, i.e 9.4m or 10m, the difference between the two doesnt seem that big, at least in my opinion. But going from 100k to 700k, the difference seems huge. 600k extra games on its own is definitelly a very good amount of copies though.
Nobody said that, what are you talking about? And MH on home console, while still a high seller, isn't nearly as much of a killer app as the portable ones.
There's more than 20 on Wii alone.
I get why he said it, but sometimes people need to temper their expectations and gain some perspective.
test_account
XP-39C²
Fair enough.
Dorfdad
Gold Member
Wasn't quoting anyone directly from this thread.. But the general consensus on the forums from the haters that Wii-U is doomed because it's not next gen title worthy by some...
BishopLamont
Banned
Obviously if a game goes from 400k to 1M its a big difference, but 3.9 to 4.5 is not that much of a difference, the point is that 3.9 is already near the end of the LTD numbers, if you read my post you'd understand, instead of nitpicking just the number itself.
What does what I said have anything to do with tempering my expectations and gaining some perspective? Don't just say shit just to sound smart, you come off as dumb.
lol, yep like I thought.
pieatorium
Member
This time last year at least half of the week by week sales were on playstation platforms so by your logic the vita should have been quite a selller.
5 on PS3, 22 on Wii It's interesting to note that all of Wii's game on the list, except for Taiko no Tatsujin Wii and Monster Hunter 3, were published by Nintendo in Japan.
PS3 2008-06-12 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 706,461
PS3 2009-12-17 Final Fantasy XIII 1,904,313
PS3 2011-09-08 Tales of Xillia 632,151
PS3 2011-12-15 Final Fantasy XIII-2 797,986
PS3 2012-03-01 One Piece: Pirate Warriors 790,812
Wii 2007-07-26 Mario Party 8 1,427,575
Wii 2006-12-02 WarioWare: Smooth Moves 654,200
Wii 2006-12-02 Wii Play 2,800,615
Wii 2006-12-02 Wii Sports 3,682,754
Wii 2007-11-01 Super Mario Galaxy 1,017,287
Wii 2009-06-25 Wii Sports Resort 2,934,504
Wii 2007-12-01 Wii Fit 3,561,787
Wii 2008-01-31 Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2,094,464
Wii 2008-04-10 Mario Kart Wii 3,521,387
Wii 2008-11-20 Animal Crossing: City Folk 1,221,459
Wii 2008-12-11 Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 657,666
Wii 2009-08-01 Monster Hunter 3 1,070,743
Wii 2009-10-01 Wii Fit Plus 2,336,182
Wii 2009-12-03 New Super Mario Bros. Wii 4,391,312
Wii 2010-05-27 Super Mario Galaxy 2 1,003,763
Wii 2010-07-08 Wii Party 2,302,907
Wii 2010-10-21 Super Mario All-Stars 916,410
Wii 2010-11-25 Mario Sports Mix 645,005
Wii 2010-12-09 Donkey Kong Country Returns 952,018
Wii 2011-07-21 Rhythm Heaven Wii 661,532
Wii 2011-10-13 Just Dance Wii 614,194
Wii 2011-10-27 Kirby's Return to Dream Land 616,659
I don't know why you feel the need to try to insult me. 600k sales outside of the launch period is anything but negligible. It's not a nitpick. It's a valid point.
Is that number right?
still. That's 20% of the overall number. I wouldn't call it "not much difference".
test_account
XP-39C²
New releases {2012.08.30}
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers <RPG> (Atlus) (¥6.279)
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst: Guren no Shoujotachi <ACT> (Marvelous AQL) (¥5.980)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f # <ACT> (Sega) (¥7.329)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f [PlayStation Vita Hatsune Miku Limited Edition Wi-Fi Model] <ACT> (Sega) (¥34.980)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f [PlayStation Vita Hatsune Miku Limited Edition 3G/Wi-Fi Model] <ACT> (Sega) (¥39.980)
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam Age: Cosmic Drive <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.980)
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam Age: Universe Accel <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.980)
[PSP] Rurouni Kenshin: Meiji Kenyaku Romantan - Kansen <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Custom Drive <ADV> (D3 Publisher) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae o Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai # <ADV> (5pb.) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae o Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai [Limited Edition] <ADV> (5pb.) (¥10.290)
[PSP] Yamikara no Izanai: Tenebrae I # <ADV> (Asgard) (¥3.969)
[PSP] Yamikara no Izanai: Tenebrae I [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Asgard) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Genroh # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Genroh [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.190)
[PSP] Koi Sentai Love & Peace the P.S.P: Power Zenkai! Special Youso Tenkomori de Portable Ka Daisakusen de Aru! # <ADV> (Broccoli) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Koi Sentai Love & Peace the P.S.P: Power Zenkai! Special Youso Tenkomori de Portable Ka Daisakusen de Aru! [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Broccoli) (¥8.190)
[PS3] Sengoku Basara HD Collection <ACT> (Capcom) (¥4.990)
[PS3] Kami Jigen Game Neptune V # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.329)
[PS3] Kami Jigen Game Neptune V [Kami Limited Edition] <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥10.479)
[PS3] AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match # <FTG> (Aqua Plus) (¥7.140)
[PS3] AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match [Limited Edition] <FTG> (Aqua Plus) (¥8.379)
[PS3] AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match [Rapbox Real Arcade Pro. V3 SAP Bundle] <FTG> (Aqua Plus) (¥20.790)
[PS3] DiRT Showdown <RCE> (Codemasters) (¥6.510)
[PS3] DiRT Showdown + DiRT 3: Complete Edition - Double Pack <RCE> (Codemasters) (¥8.820)
[PS3] Spec Ops: The Line <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥7.140)
[PS3] Shadows of the Damned (EA Best Hits) <ADV> (Electronic Arts) (¥3.129)
[360] DiRT Showdown <RCE> (Codemasters) (¥6.510)
[360] Spec Ops: The Line <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥7.140)
[3DS] Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers <RPG> (Atlus) (¥6.279)
[3DS] Senran Kagura Burst: Guren no Shoujotachi <ACT> (Marvelous AQL) (¥5.980)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f # <ACT> (Sega) (¥7.329)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f [PlayStation Vita Hatsune Miku Limited Edition Wi-Fi Model] <ACT> (Sega) (¥34.980)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f [PlayStation Vita Hatsune Miku Limited Edition 3G/Wi-Fi Model] <ACT> (Sega) (¥39.980)
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam Age: Cosmic Drive <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.980)
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam Age: Universe Accel <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.980)
[PSP] Rurouni Kenshin: Meiji Kenyaku Romantan - Kansen <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Custom Drive <ADV> (D3 Publisher) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae o Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai # <ADV> (5pb.) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae o Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai [Limited Edition] <ADV> (5pb.) (¥10.290)
[PSP] Yamikara no Izanai: Tenebrae I # <ADV> (Asgard) (¥3.969)
[PSP] Yamikara no Izanai: Tenebrae I [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Asgard) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Genroh # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Genroh [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.190)
[PSP] Koi Sentai Love & Peace the P.S.P: Power Zenkai! Special Youso Tenkomori de Portable Ka Daisakusen de Aru! # <ADV> (Broccoli) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Koi Sentai Love & Peace the P.S.P: Power Zenkai! Special Youso Tenkomori de Portable Ka Daisakusen de Aru! [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Broccoli) (¥8.190)
[PS3] Sengoku Basara HD Collection <ACT> (Capcom) (¥4.990)
[PS3] Kami Jigen Game Neptune V # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.329)
[PS3] Kami Jigen Game Neptune V [Kami Limited Edition] <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥10.479)
[PS3] AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match # <FTG> (Aqua Plus) (¥7.140)
[PS3] AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match [Limited Edition] <FTG> (Aqua Plus) (¥8.379)
[PS3] AquaPazza: AquaPlus Dream Match [Rapbox Real Arcade Pro. V3 SAP Bundle] <FTG> (Aqua Plus) (¥20.790)
[PS3] DiRT Showdown <RCE> (Codemasters) (¥6.510)
[PS3] DiRT Showdown + DiRT 3: Complete Edition - Double Pack <RCE> (Codemasters) (¥8.820)
[PS3] Spec Ops: The Line <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥7.140)
[PS3] Shadows of the Damned (EA Best Hits) <ADV> (Electronic Arts) (¥3.129)
[360] DiRT Showdown <RCE> (Codemasters) (¥6.510)
[360] Spec Ops: The Line <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥7.140)
ShockingAlberto
Member
Have you ever played BlazBlue's story mode? If so, that might make the explanation easier since it is very similar.
Basically, visual novel with voice acting, lots of internal monologue, and the occasional fight (before the To Be Continued parts, usually around four fights) to move the story along. It basically covers the game's events from everyone's perspectives, often differing when they actually enter the TV since it's not like everyone can always make it to the end.
There is a truncated story for Arcade Mode that is just "OH MAN WE SHOULD STOP THIS" and then a little bit of dialogue before matches. The story mode is the real draw for people who want, well, story.
Wanted to say that or not, your first post was clearly implying LTD sales. Maybe you clarified later but the 2 million conversation started because of that.
A new generation of meltdowns begins.
Hope dies last, eh?. Have you gathered any info for the famous new Nintendo IP that will be revealed soon?
Hydrargyrus
Member
Wow, Xbox360, 500 units less than PS2. Worst than ever, isn't it?
djplaeskool
Member
I completely forgot Gundam Age was coming out next week... I'm excited to see how bad it will do
Oh boy.
So is Gundam AGE as disliked as I've heard?
Yep. Third-parties really blew it this gen, when it came to Wii support.
test_account
XP-39C²
I havnt played BlazBlue, but it sounds a bit like Art of Fighting for Neo Geo (if you have played that?). Thanks for the info
Cygnus X-1
Member
I'm not deep into the discussion, so I'll tell you only this: there is no way a NSMB U will sell just two millions LTD. Such a result would be a massive failure for a Mario game. But the entire assumption doesn't make in my honest opinion. It's not going to happen. Especially since it will be THE game to buy alongside Wii U. The only exception I cant think about would be that Wii U fails to sell in a so spectacular way that of course the game will not be able to sell because of limited installed base.
But otherwise: why bother about this unlikely hypothesis, Chris?
Nahhh I don't remember if my bet was 500.000 LTD or a million seller, but 500.00 is still doable IMO. So no worries here!
What's this famous new Nintendo IP you are talking about and why should I know anything about it?...
...
You have more questions for you just above me! hahaha
Chris didn't. He just commented on it like you did and all hell breaks loose.
Sammy Samusu
Member
This doesn't even make sense. u_u