Yeah, but depends on home consoles or handhelds.
A handheld could possibly do it in December on the week Pokemon, Yokai, and MH all release at the same time.
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Media Create Sales: Week 35, 2015 (Aug 24 - Aug 30)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Yeah, but depends on home consoles or handhelds.
A handheld could possibly do it in December on the week Pokemon, Yokai, and MH all release at the same time.
Which PS4 title will outsell it though?
EDIT:
I guess maybe FFVX would have a chance, but I'm not sure...
Well the FFs and the KHs don't have an alternate ready to cut them off at the pass, so to speak. Really becomes a question of what you think the ratio will be out of the ~4 million sales expected total. Do you expect an 8:2? 7:3? 6:4?
Do you seriously think ps4 has little chance of making it to 6 million
? More like 7.3 Million ish by the time 3DS is retired.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
The change of presentation is pretty massive though. It'll sell extremely well relative to the PS4's install base. The real problem it has is regarding how much it can expand the install base, rather than how much it'll sell overall. Having a 3DS SKU hampers that considerably.
the guy i replied to said ps4 will be lucky to get a third of the ps1s install base in japan
ps4 will pass the ps3 launch aligned by the end of 2015 and i expect ps4 to sell more in 2016 than ps3 in 2009. so i see ps4 reaching 10 million, and no i don't think this gen will be only 5-6 years long
Same can be said of Smash 3DS to Smash WiiU (two parallel developed games with completely overhauled graphics between versions), didn't change the reality of the situation, though, and Smash WiiU even had the added benefit of being the de-facto competitive format as well as far better control interface and party offerings.
The handheld, in Japan, is a killer undercut.
I stand by my thinking, as well, that the 3DS version in this scenario is even more of a lopsided proposition because of what it offers compared to the PS4. Here we actually see a loss in feature sets over a graphical upgrade (and loss of mobility).
3DS install base.
And holy crap.
dude its not that much, if the ps3 could do it the ps4 can also
There's a huge difference in the market then and the market now.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
You're forgetting that Smash on Wii U released a couple of months after the 3DS version, which played a factor. As I say, I'm not expecting anything crazy, and certainly not over 1 million, but I think that relative to the PS4's install base, DQXI has potential to do extremely well, and it probably will do. Smash is Smash, not Dragon Quest, after all. In terms of franchise sales they're not even in the same ballpark.
I seriously doubt DQXI is going to debut at 227,000 (Smash Wii U debut) on PS4, especially given what DQ Heroes debut. Be serious. Some people in here are really underestimating this SKU. I'd argue we can expect DQ Heroes to be a minimum baseline for how well DQXI sells on PS4.
The market has changed drastically. The PS3 has only barely managed it after not only starting out considerably more expensive and over nine years but also through a global recession.
You have a potential inflection point with the NX as well.
Too many variables/unknowns to draw 1:1 comparisons with the PS3.
I'm of the opinion that releasing them apart or together isn't that big of a deal or differentiator in potential sales, in the former case you have time to drum up interest in the product again with new offerings or develop potential "upgraders" while in the latter you gain the impulse double-dip.
Why do you think it will debut at 227k? Where'd that number even come from?
clearly there's not. i think the ps3 launching during the holidays and ps4 launching at the end of february makes everything seem a lot worse
Wut?
i'm really only talking about the ps3 and the ps4, the wii u fell hard from the wii and the bone fell hard from the 360
...and the Vita fell hard from the PSP and 3DS fell hard from the DS.
Is the PS4 even ahead of Wii U launch aligned yet?
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
The PS4 is not going to make it to 6 million. It hasn't even reached 2 million after a year and a half on the market, and this should be the period of strength for it.
Yes, it should see some boosts for the releases of Final Fantasy XV and Kingdom Hearts III, but after that it will be all tapped out. Unless Sony doesn't release the PS5 until 2020 or later, I don't see it having any shot at 6 million.
Don't think so, doesn't really matter because it will be ahead of the ps3 by the end of the year anyway
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
You're comparing DQXI 3DS and DQXI PS4 to Smash 3DS and Smash Wii U....Smash Wii U debuted at 227,527 units. There is absolutely no way DQXI on PS4 has a debut that low. Hence why I think the comparison is redundant. Smash hasn't got the kind of brand power Dragon Quest does.
Even with a 3DS release, Dragon Quest XI will no doubt sell a very nice amount on PS4, relative to whatever the install base is at the time. I don't think anyone is suggesting it'll sell over 1 million even, but some of you seem to be downplaying it far too much. It will do well.
the thing hasn't even received its first price cut yet and all its gotten is cross gen spin off games or ports like dragon quest heroes, yakuza 0 and final fantasy type 0
Looks more like he's referring to the 3DS to me
Eolz
Member
You can count me as someone believing that by 2018-19, the PS4 won't be at 6 millions consoles sold in Japan, no.
They're not?
Wait, then what is even the argument
It can sell well and be less than ~1 million?
To be fair he's talking ratios and not sales. DQXI 3DS(/NX) will probably be bigger than Smash 3DS too.
EDIT:
Based on MGSV, Persona 5 and a hail mary?
why
I'm talking about ratios, as in the Smash Ratio not the Smash Sales Breakdown.
I expect DQXI 3DS to open at considerably more than Smash 3DS's ~900k as such, regardless of exactly what ratio you choose to pick so long as it isn't 9:1, DQXI PS4 will open at a greater than Smash WiiU number.
nah just based on how much more the ps4 sold this year relative to the ps3's 2008
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
My argument is that how well Dragon Quest XI will do on PS4 is being downplayed. Vena compared the situation to Smash 3DS sales vs. Smash Wii U sales. Smash Wii U had a 227k debut. That's not even good for Wii U standards and there is no way Dragon Quest on PS4 will be that low.
I'm saying that, whatever PS4's install base is at the time, the game will sell well relative to that number. Many people on GAF seem to be downplaying the game's potential on PS4, despite Dragon Quest's brand power. The fact it's Dragon Quest alone makes the Smash comparison skin deep at best. Do you see where I'm coming from?
I see what you're saying then. Thought you were outright comparing numbers. So what do you predict for DQXI on 3DS out of interest? I feel as though my 1.8 - 2m estimate could potentially be low balling slightly.
+1. Unless FFXV and DQXI work some kind of devil magic. Will be interesting to see what the baseline rises to once the bigger Japanese titles start releasing.
Eolz
Member
Current sales, evolution of the japanese market, disinterest from the regular japanese gamer, games coming out, competition (not only nintendo), possible landscape changes, etc.
Mind you, I'm not saying 6M in 2019 would be a bad number, far from it.
He's not saying it will be that low. He's talking about a ratio here.
Actually you might be right about that, I forgot how dreadful the PS3 did early on. But do you expect it to do keep ahead?
Keep in mind that the 3DS was at one point outpacing the DS worldwide.
Publishers bundle their numbers to inflate them, more at 11
Just like capcom adds the various rereleases that add plenty of content for the RE games (standard, goty, gold editions and so on).
You either compare among real, known variables (Vanilla releases to vanilla releases) or you end up with irrelevant numbers devoid of meaning.
Otherwise MH4 is at 7 million units sold.
Also to answer your question, yes I separate them. Just like Famitsu (or MC can't remember which one doesn't combine them) does.
Not really. The only major games released so far are DQ Heroes and Bloodborne. And one of those is crossgen. 2016 should be the "period of strength" for whatever it's worth.
Also, your reasoning is rather poor. PS3 was just barely over 2m after a year and a half on the market and it managed 10m lifetime. Not that I think PS4 is going to hit 10m, but 6m is not a ludicrous prediction.
FFXV and KH3 aren't the only games in the world.
Yeah because there's a lot of Japanese oriented games coming out next year, whether they're huge or not, the games will provide a small to medium to large boost
Dark Souls 3
The Last Guardian
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest XI
NieR
Dragon Quest Heroes 2
Street Fighter 5
Whatever Sony Japan reveals at TGS, which apparently will be a lot of stuff
And whatever else is revealed
And a $100 (whatever that is in yen) price cut
For all of those things listed I expect the PS4 to sell more in 2016 than PS3 did in 2009 which was 1.85 million
Let's not count our chickens before they hatch.
Eolz
Member
The problem is, those small to medium boosts will exist, but likely won't be cumulative, raising the baseline again and again to get to something like the 3DS some years ago.
edit: until we get more info, Nier 2 seems like a 2017 title.
The only game I'm not positive that's coming out next year is Nier, I'm sure one of the Sony Japan games will release next year
Nier is also completely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Its also not the only one and I have no idea why, all of a sudden, certain brands have become any sort of relevant and not hopelessly self-redundant in audience appeal (like DQH2, or DS3).
[PS3] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 60.174
Opening week? 1.8-2.2m seems reasonable to me.
Agreed. The PS4 isn't suddenly going to sell like the PS2 just because of a couple of games.
fixed, unless we're counting Nintendo Land too.
Yeah, I don't have super high hopes for the PS4, but I do think that it'll have baseline increases more due to the constant stream of games than anything else.. It should end comfortably above the Wii U.
Sure, but I think that can still live well inside the land of unsuccessful overall.
I'm sure you know by now that pretty much any game that sells decently provides a boost to a consoles hardware sales
I don't think anyone here thinks ps4 will sell anywhere close to what a ps2 in its prime could sell in a year, i simply think ps4 will have a better 2016 than ps3's 2009
That's cool and all, but now look the 3DS story.
3DS yearly sales by end of 2012:
[2011] 4,282,142
[2012] 5,497,737
2012 was a insane year for the 3DS. It was selling many times >100k during the week of the games release, and even withouth games was easy over 50k.
What's happen in 2012? here the reason for the 3DS sales:
-kingdom hearts
-Mario Bros
-Fire Emblem
-Kid Icarus
-Animal Crossing
-Resident evil
-No game, but a hardware impact, XL version.
...All game i said, barely sold 200k/250k first week, OR LESS, only Animal Crossing and Mario Bros 2 was big... but not big as the 3DS games in 2013.
Here the point, now, look the 2013.
The 3DS line up was MASSIVE.
Pokémon and Monster Hunter both sold insane numbers, 1.5 million to 2 million first week, WAY MORE than all 3DS games in 2012, Monster Hunter and Pokémon was the Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy of the 3DS...
What's happen?
3DS in 2013 has sold LESS than in 2012... yes. Nobody expect this.
That's what i believe will happen with PS4... The 2016 line up is bigger, but i don't think will boost the PS4 like a monster as many people believe.
I still think PS4 will sell more than this year.
1.35 million is my PS4 prediction for next year.over 1.4 million is possible. Even over 1.5 million ( but is hard...).
2 million?
No.
No.
No chance.
No Way.
Just... no.
Oh I wasn't arguing against that. Just making my prediction.
Eolz
Member
Just to be sure... Do you think it'll be its peak year? I can understand your reasoning if you think this would be the case.
thestopsign
Member
Ryng, I realize English is probably not your first language, but your posts are very hard to read.
As for what I think you are implying there. The PS4 should have its best year next year if the big releases don't get pushed back. This isn't the same situation as the 3DS.
As for what I think you are implying there. The PS4 should have its best year next year if the big releases don't get pushed back. This isn't the same situation as the 3DS.
It's actually probably a shocking indictment of traditional third party publishers that they are barely more influential than Nintendo going it solo.