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[bluedawgs]

That's cool and all, but now look the 3DS story.

3DS yearly sales by end of 2012:

[2011] 4,282,142
[2012] 5,497,737

2012 was a insane year for the 3DS. It was selling many times >100k during the week of the games release, and even withouth games was easy over 50k.
What's happen in 2012? here the reason for the 3DS sales:

-kingdom hearts
-Mario Bros
-Fire Emblem
-Kid Icarus
-Animal Crossing
-Resident evil
-No game, but a hardware impact, XL version.

...All game i said, barely sold 200k/250k first week, OR LESS, only Animal Crossing and Mario Bros 2 was big... but not big as the 3DS games in 2013.

Here the point, now, look the 2013.

The 3DS line up was MASSIVE.
Pokémon and Monster Hunter both sold insane numbers, 1.5 million to 2 million first week, WAY MORE than all 3DS games in 2012, Monster Hunter and Pokémon was the Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy of the 3DS...
What's happen?
3DS in 2013 has sold LESS than in 2012... yes. Nobody expect this.

That's what i believe will happen with PS4... The 2016 line up is bigger, but i don't think will boost the PS4 like a monster as many people believe.
I still think PS4 will sell more than this year.

1.35 million is my PS4 prediction for next year.over 1.4 million is possible. Even over 1.5 million ( but is hard...).

2 million?

No.
No.
No chance.
No Way.
Just... no.

You predicting only 100k more sales for ps4 in 2016 vs 2015 is just as if not more stupid than me predicting 2 million

 

[bluedawgs]

Just to be sure... Do you think it'll be its peak year? I can understand your reasoning if you think this would be the case.

yeah i think it'll be the peak year

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Ryng, I realize English is probably not your first language, but your posts are very hard to read.

It's not even my second/third... In Italy NO ONE talk english. Italy is the only countie withouth a second lenguage, we only talk italian.

P.S
Call me Tolu.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

You predicting only 100k more sales for ps4 in 2016 vs 2015 is just as if not more stupid than me predicting 2 million

...Seriusly... have you at least read my comment?

 

[Vena]

I'm sure you know by now that pretty much any game that sells decently provides a boost to a consoles hardware sales

This suffers from diminishing returns on redundant audience appeal.

 

[bluedawgs]

...Seriusly... have you at least read my comment?

Yeah, read the entire thing. Playstation systems simply sell differently than Nintendo consoles. You always like to compare them but they just don't sell the same. Playstation hardware has legs, Nintendo consoles don't, at least not on Playstation's level. Nintendo's software on the other hand has legs, Playstation's software does not, like at all.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yeah, read the entire thing. Playstation systems simply sell differently than Nintendo consoles. You always like to compare them but they just don't sell the same. Playstation hardware has legs, Nintendo consoles don't, at least not on Playstation's level. Nintendo's software on the other hand has legs, Playstation's software does not, like at all.

Oh really? And where are the PlayStation legs this gen? Globally, the PS4 is down YOY in the total shipments as for June 30, it ship 5.7 million last year compared to the 5.4 million of this year.

A console like the Wii ( and many people say Wii has bad legs) has increase the total shipments by OVER 50% in the second year for the first 6 months of sales ( 6.08m VS 9.49m).. as for now PS4 has worse legs than the Wii.

 

[bluedawgs]

Oh really? And where are the PlayStation legs this gen? Globally, the PS4 is down YOY in the total shipments as for June 30, it ship 5.7 million last year compared to the 5.4 million of this year.

A console like the Wii ( and many people say Wii has bad legs) has increase the total shipments by OVER 50% in the second year for the first 6 months of sales ( 6.08m VS 9.49m).. as for now PS4 has worse legs than the Wii.

The Wii had horrible legs, yes. It was extremely front loaded. PS4 will be up year on year obviously, the only reason it's down currently is because of the launch hype that was still going around during early 2014

 

[Nirolak]

It's actually probably a shocking indictment of traditional third party publishers that they are barely more influential than Nintendo going it solo.

There's a reason the market looks like it does.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

The Wii had horrible legs, yes. It was extremely front loaded. PS4 will be up year on year obviously, the only reason it's down currently is because of the launch hype that was still going around during early 2014

Yes, will be up YOY by LESS than 5%... what a legs.
The Wii is increase by 47% in the second year of sales.
For now, the PS4 is more front loaded than the Wii.
The generations are on change... The PS4 is the only PlayStation console with a super strong launch ( even the PS2 the firsts month was nothing of special ) and that's why will be the PlayStation console with the worse legs.

 

[Sterok]

There's a reason the market looks like it does.

Are you implying that a home console with Mario/Kart/Smash/Splatoon along with Final Fantasy/Dragon Quest/Metal Gear/the other third parties might be semi-successful in Japan? Because that seems to be the most obvious route to making consoles somewhat viable here.

 

[bluedawgs]

Yes, will be up YOY by LESS than 5%... what a legs.
The Wii is increase by 47% in the second year of sales.
For now, the PS4 is more front loaded than the Wii.
The generations are on change... The PS4 is the only PlayStation console with a super strong launch ( even the PS2 the firsts month was nothing of special ) and that's why will be the PlayStation console with the worse legs.

The PS4 is also the only Playstation console to not receive a price cut a year after its launch, something you seem to leave out. PS4's peak year, unlike the Wii, will be in its third or fourth year, not its second. Yes, the Wii increased tremendously over its first full year, and then kept on declining. The Wii barely made it over 100 million, PS2 did that and then went on to sell 50 million more.

 

[horuhe]

Are you implying that a home console with Mario/Kart/Smash/Splatoon along with Final Fantasy/Dragon Quest/Metal Gear/the other third parties might be semi-successful in Japan? Because that seems to be the most obvious route to making consoles somewhat viable here.

Smartphone devs, maybe? I'm sure NX will be successful with those franchise. However, NX can't deny possibly its most dangerous competitors.

 

[Hawkens]

Oh really? And where are the PlayStation legs this gen? Globally, the PS4 is down YOY in the total shipments as for June 30, it ship 5.7 million last year compared to the 5.4 million of this year.

Dude, stop just stop. Even the slightest amount of effort would have shown that the PS4 came out of December 2013 with less than 300,000 units that were shipped and not sold, while it came out of December 2014 with more than 1,400,000 units that were shipped and not sold. Do you not think that the fact that the PS4 had nearly 5 times as much stock on shelf this year compared to last might have something to do with the shipments. Do not try to compare shipments with actual sales unless you are willing to try to back it up with collaborating evidence.

Besides why bring up world sales in a Media Create thread.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Yeah, if we're just talking about Nintendo home consoles specifically, I don't think it's wrong to say Playstation hardware has had better legs.

Though I don't know SNES and NES number stuff.

 

[thestopsign]

Yes, will be up YOY by LESS than 5%... what a legs.
The Wii is increase by 47% in the second year of sales.
For now, the PS4 is more front loaded than the Wii.
The generations are on change... The PS4 is the only PlayStation console with a super strong launch ( even the PS2 the firsts month was nothing of special ) and that's why will be the PlayStation console with the worse legs.

The 3DS wasn't a great comparison. The Wii is an even worse one. The market is vastly different and the Wii was a phenomenon in it's first few years, so it isn't really a fair comparison at this point.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

The PS4 is also the only Playstation console to not receive a price cut a year after its launch, something you seem to leave out. PS4's peak year, unlike the Wii, will be in its third or fourth year, not its second. Yes, the Wii increased tremendously over its first full year, and then kept on declining. The Wii barely made it over 100 million, PS2 did that and then went on to sell 50 million more.

The Wii in the second year didn't cut the price. But the sales are still increase by nearly 50% in the second year.
PS4 withouth a OFFICIAL pricedrop, will increase the sales by 1/2 % this year.

And now, seriusly... the official PS4 price is still 399 $/€... so?
You can already buy a PS4 at 349 $/€ or less, or 399 $/€ with games.
One time, in Italy, the PS4 was selling for one week at 199€ with FIFA 15 in 2014.

Just a example, this is probabily the bigger promotion. But there are many other promotion for buy a PS4 for less than 400 €...

Besides why bring up world sales in a Media Create thread.

It was just a reply for a guy that said the PlayStation legs are always strong. But yeah you right, doesn't make much sense talk about WW sales here.

The 3DS wasn't a great comparison. The Wii is an even worse one. The market is vastly different and the Wii was a phenomenon in it's first few years, so it isn't really a fair comparison at this point.

I think is a good comparation imo. is just the same scenario, if you think so. 3DS in 2012 sold a lot, and all guys predicted better sales for 2013, but it did not happen.
Monster Hunter and Pokeémon were the Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy.
But like i said, i dont think PS4 will be down YOY next year. i think PS4 will sell more in 2016, just... not so much more. not 2 million. i can see over 1.5 million, but over this is too hard.

I can tell also that English isn't your first language as well, Tolu, but I think your English is fine (as in, I can understand you perfectly). It's great that you're trying and communicating well.

 

[FreedomFighter]

You predicting only 100k more sales for ps4 in 2016 vs 2015 is just as if not more stupid than me predicting 2 million

I think you're really trying to *will* PS4 to 2million. Just doesn't look possible. There's what is reality and what we hope to happen. As many have said in some form or fashion, I think you're in "BELIEVE" territory here.

It's not even my second/third... In Italy NO ONE talk english. Italy is the only countie withouth a second lenguage, we only talk italian.

P.S
Call me Tolu.

I can tell also that English isn't your first language as well, Tolu, but I think your English is fine (as in, I can understand you perfectly). It's great that you're trying and communicating well.

 

[bluedawgs]

The Wii in the second year didn't cut the price. But the sales are still increase by nearly 50% in the second year.
PS4 withouth a OFFICIAL pricedrop, will increase the sales by 1/2 % this year.

And now, seriusly... the official PS4 price is still 399 $/€... so?
You can already buy a PS4 at 349 $/€ or less, or 399 $/€ with games.
One time, in Italy, the PS4 was selling for one week at 199€ with FIFA 15 in 2014.

Just a example, this is probabily the bigger promotion. But there are many other promotion for buy a PS4 for less than 400 €...

Yeah, no. Promotions like that do fuck all when compared to a full fledged $100 price cut, don't kid yourself. Also, the Wii didn't need a price cut, it was like $250.

 

[bluedawgs]

I think you're really trying to *will* PS4 to 2million. Just doesn't look possible. There's what is reality and what we hope to happen. As many have said in some form or fashion, I think you're in "BELIEVE" territory here.


I can tell also that English isn't your first language as well, Tolu, but I think your English is fine (as in, I can understand you perfectly). It's great that you're trying and communicating well.

Yeah well I've listed the reasons why I think it will sell that much on multiple occasions and if you don't think its possible then that's cool, seems possible to me. I'll probs be wrong though.

 

[Eolz]

bluedawgs, to avoid double posts, you should really use the "+" button next to "quote" to select several quotes or edit your post if you see another post you want to reply too, most people won't mind.

Price cuts are an hard thing to say when it's needed anyway. The WiiU badly need one for example, but the PS4 doesn't necessarily need one next year.
A price cut doesn't automatically means better sales on the long term if nothing else changes, this was the problem for the vita at one of its price cuts.

 

[FreedomFighter]

Yeah well I've listed the reasons why I think it will sell that much on multiple occasions and if you don't think its possible then that's cool, seems possible to me. I'll probs be wrong though.

You could probably be right though. Guess will see. I just think the likelihood is a bit slim.

Will be fun to watch though.

 

[Mory Dunz]

bluedawgs, to avoid double posts, you should really use the "+" button next to "quote" to select several quotes or edit your post if you see another post you want to reply too, most people won't mind.

Price cuts are an hard thing to say when it's needed anyway. The WiiU badly need one for example, but the PS4 doesn't necessarily need one next year.
A price cut doesn't automatically means better sales on the long term if nothing else changes, this was the problem for the vita at one of its price cuts.

I'm not sure a Wii U pricecut would help the baseline enough to justify the cost. It's hard to say how much more it would even sell on a weekly basis.

Then again, I thought nothing would increase the baseline after MK8, Smash, 3D World basically didn't.

If somehow Mario Maker managed to sell and raise the baseline in addition to Splatoon, maybe a pricecut could make momentum. But I'm saying to do it if the baseline increased to around 14-15k so....

 

[casiopao]

Yeah because there's a lot of Japanese oriented games coming out next year, whether they're huge or not, the games will provide a small to medium to large boost

Dark Souls 3
The Last Guardian
Final Fantasy XV
Dragon Quest XI
NieR
Dragon Quest Heroes 2
Street Fighter 5
Whatever Sony Japan reveals at TGS, which apparently will be a lot of stuff
And whatever else is revealed

And a $100 (whatever that is in yen) price cut

For all of those things listed I expect the PS4 to sell more in 2016 than PS3 did in 2009 which was 1.85 million

Most of those title is not really going to move tons of hardware here. Those who buy DS 3 should have own PS4 especially now as Bloodborne is currently being given as free title.

NieR is not even a big seller and TLG is an unknown variable. Anyone know how much sotc sells? That is probably how much it can sells.

Dragon Quest Heroes 2 had the same problem as Bloodborne here. Those who wanted the game will already get the consoles here and sequel is famous for having the sales numbers decreased.

Then, we are left with DQ 11 which will also be released on 3DS and NX+ FF15 which had quite a huge development problem.

The only one i can see really moving big hardware number is only SF5. And probably upcoming Tales of title.


I would not bet on unknown variable like Sony japan making anything that sells a lot here as the only i can remember from that studio right now is Vita title and Knack.

1.8 mill is going to be one difficult hurdle to past by here.

 

[Xbro]

Most of those title is not really going to move tons of hardware here. Those who buy DS 3 should have own PS4 especially now as Bloodborne is currently being given as free title.

NieR is not even a big seller and TLG is an unknown variable. Anyone know how much sotc sells? That is probably how much it can sells.

Dragon Quest Heroes 2 had the same problem as Bloodborne here. Those who wanted the game will already get the consoles here and sequel is famous for having the sales numbers decreased.

Then, we are left with DQ 11 which will also be released on 3DS and NX+ FF15 which had quite a huge development problem.

The only one i can see really moving big hardware number is only SF5. And probably upcoming Tales of title.


I would not bet on unknown variable like Sony japan making anything that sells a lot here as the only i can remember from that studio right now is Vita title and Knack.

1.8 mill is going to be one difficult hurdle to past by here.

SotC was around 230K iirc.

 

[saichi]

the thing hasn't even received its first price cut yet and all its gotten is cross gen spin off games or ports like dragon quest heroes, yakuza 0 and final fantasy type 0

still waiting PS3 to hit $199 and take off...

 

[bluedawgs]

Most of those title is not really going to move tons of hardware here. Those who buy DS 3 should have own PS4 especially now as Bloodborne is currently being given as free title.

NieR is not even a big seller and TLG is an unknown variable. Anyone know how much sotc sells? That is probably how much it can sells.

Dragon Quest Heroes 2 had the same problem as Bloodborne here. Those who wanted the game will already get the consoles here and sequel is famous for having the sales numbers decreased.

Then, we are left with DQ 11 which will also be released on 3DS and NX+ FF15 which had quite a huge development problem.

The only one i can see really moving big hardware number is only SF5. And probably upcoming Tales of title.


I would not bet on unknown variable like Sony japan making anything that sells a lot here as the only i can remember from that studio right now is Vita title and Knack.

1.8 mill is going to be one difficult hurdle to past by here.

I noted in the post that most weren't going to make much of an impact

Doesn't matter, a shit ton of hardware will be moved undoubtedly thanks to Dragon Quest XI and FFXV regardless of the platforms they're on or how long development time was

still waiting PS3 to hit $199 and take off...

lame

 

[sörine]

Wii U needed a price cut 2 years ago. At this point it just doesn't matter.

 

[Jigorath]

What's the point in doing a WiiU pricecut now? It's already dead and buried. Nintendo isn't trying to sell more WiiUs, they're trying to make profits off the few WiiUs they're selling now.

 

[bluedawgs]

Wii U needed a price cut 2 years ago. At this point it just doesn't matter.

What's the point in doing a WiiU pricecut now? It's already dead and buried. Nintendo isn't trying to sell more WiiUs, they're trying to make profits off the few WiiUs they're selling now.

Eh, I'm sure if they gave it a big price cut it could get an extra 500k if not more sales than they were already going to get, which is a lot for Japan.

 

[casiopao]

SotC was around 230K iirc.

Well, thats not as good as i thought especially during PS2 era here. I guess it should be able to reach 150k ltd if it played well enough here.

I noted in the post that most weren't going to make much of an impact

Doesn't matter, a shit ton of hardware will be moved undoubtedly thanks to Dragon Quest XI and FFXV regardless of the platforms they're on or how long development time was



lame

I am quite confused on where all these confidence on DQ11 and FF15 is surely going to sell shit ton of Ps4 here. DQ is multiplatform with 3ds and FF is not as strong as older times. Yes it is going to sell number of Ps4 maybe 80k in that week. But more than that is not really possible if u ask me here.

 

[bluedawgs]

Well, thats not as good as i thought especially during PS2 era here. I guess it should be able to reach 150k ltd if it played well enough here.



I am quite confused on where all these confidence on DQ11 and FF15 is surely going to sell shit ton of Ps4 here. DQ is multiplatform with 3ds and FF is not as strong as older times. Yes it is going to sell number of Ps4 maybe 80k in that week. But more than that is not really possible if u ask me here.

what do you think dragon quest 11 is just gonna release and ps4 will stay at like 20k? also i hope you're aware that final fantasy type 0, a psp port that was never requested for increased ps4 sales the week of its release to 46k and you think final fantasy 15 will only increase ps4 sales to 80k while final fantasy 13 increased ps3 sales to 230k?

also when was final fantasy declared a damaged brand? the last mainline game was from 2009 and it was like 50k away from 2 million. i hope we aren't basing the death of final fantasy off of underwhelming sales of shitty spin offs and unwanted sequels of the worst final fantasy game ever

 

[sörine]

Just dismissing all FF games the past half decade is sort of a losing argument. "Spinoffs and Sequels No On Asked For" was a weak defense I thought we already shut down around here.

 

[Nirolak]

Are you implying that a home console with Mario/Kart/Smash/Splatoon along with Final Fantasy/Dragon Quest/Metal Gear/the other third parties might be semi-successful in Japan? Because that seems to be the most obvious route to making consoles somewhat viable here.

No. I feel that between mobile and portable, the appetite for home consoles simply doesn't exist on a major scale, and that Japanese gamers as a whole are fine with missing lots of high profile titles because they don't fit their lifestyle.

You would have to have the reverse, a scenario where compelling content dried up on the other two platforms, in order to stoke otherwise satisfied people to look into new options, and even then you'd just lose many.

 

[bluedawgs]

Just dismissing all FF games the past half decade is sort of a losing argument. "Spinoffs and Sequels No On Asked For" was a weak defense I thought we already shut down around here.

Why was it shut down? Were people in fact asking for sequels to Final Fantasy 13?

 

[sense]

Why was it shut down? Were people in fact asking for sequels to Final Fantasy 13?

you are fighting a losing battle. people quickly jump on anyone being optimistic about anything playstation in these threads. just let the games come out and speak for themselves. there is no doubt final fantasy 13 and ps3 era games in general have negatively affected many games due to their quality and in turn sales potential. the ps4 is a more popular machine when compared with ps3 and already a ton of games are planned for it. it has a lot of potential and if the games deliver on quality i don't see why it cannot reach ps3 sales in japan.

 

[Jigorath]

Eh, I'm sure if they gave it a big price cut it could get an extra 500k if not more sales than they were already going to get, which is a lot for Japan.

An extra 500k sales is pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things. If WiiU still had a shot at being competitive with PS4 or even the Xbone then they would have given it regular price drops. But it doesn't so they're moving on.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Just dismissing all FF games the past half decade is sort of a losing argument. "Spinoffs and Sequels No On Asked For" was a weak defence I thought we already shut down around here.

Why was it shut down? It's a legitimate argument. How can one possibly fully gauge the health of the Final Fantasy brand based off of spin off titles and remasters? This is how things have looked over the past 5 years.

Final Fantasy XIII-2 and Lightning Returns were both cheaply/quickly made sequels to a game that was incredibly divisive within the community.

Final Fantasy XIV was an MMO that was initially terrible, but was saved by Yoshida and is actually now doing pretty well for itself.

Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD did really well.

Final Fantasy Type 0 HD was a port/remaster of a PSP from 4 years ago.

Then we've had a slew of mobile games, which apparently have been doing okay anyway.

How does any of this indicate that sales potential for a new mainline, single player Final Fantasy has been hampered. We can't know for sure just how much damage FFXIII and it's unnecessary sequels have done to the brand until we have another mainline entry, and that'll be Final Fantasy XV. The only thing we know that's damaged is the perception of the brand, and even then, that's based solely on the microcosm of internet messages boards.

 

[sörine]

Well, it's not based solely on the the microcosm of internet message boards. We can also look at, you know, actual sales. Where mainline FF is longer a multimillion seller and direct mainline sequels are no longer even million sellers. I'm not sure if I'd characterize FFX/X-2 HD as doing especially well either. They're well below the DS remakes, more comparable to the GBA conversions.

It isn't exactly controversial to suggest FFXV will perform below XIII.

 

[bluedawgs]

Well, it's not based solely on the the microcosm of internet message boards. We can also look at, you know, actual sales. Where mainline FF is longer a multimillion seller and direct mainline sequels are no longer even million sellers. I'm not sure if I'd characterize FFX/X-2 HD as doing especially well either. They're well below the DS remakes, more comparable to the GBA conversions.

It isn't exactly controversial to suggest FFXV will perform below XIII.

yeah you see no one's saying that, i'm just baffled at how low the bar is being set for FFXV by people in this thread

 

[sörine]

yeah you see no one's saying that, i'm just baffled at how low the bar is being set for FFXV by people in this thread

I mean, how low is it? I haven't anything that crazy, like under a million. I don't think XV outselling XIII is impossible either. Just very unlikely.

 

[Alo0oy]

I'll say this, it wasn't long ago that people expected the PS4 to sell worse this year than it did last year.

It was also not long ago that people expected The Phantom Pain to barely sell 500k lifetime. While people need to cool down on PS4 selling better than PS3, people also need to stop insanely downplaying the sales of the PS4 or some software like Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy.

I can't believe people are actually doubting if those games will sell 1+ million, in a media create thread of all places. The last mainline offline Final Fantasy title sold ~2 million to a ~4 million install base, just as a reminder.

 

[Chris1964]

It was also not long ago that people expected The Phantom Pain to barely sell 500k lifetime.

Really? Who are these people?

 

[BishopLamont]

dq will sell very well on ps4, im expecting minmum 50/50 ratio for both skus launch week and LTD, comparisons to smash bros isn't very good, since it wasn't simultaneous, the only thing that affects that will be the nx sku, but even nx sku should affect both platforms equally

i think 6millon LTD for ps4 is more realistic than it not reaching it, if u look at the 3ds, it's first years already built the userbase as most of the big franchises like mh and animal crossing already had iterations, whereas in 2013 pokemon was the only new franchise to appear but most people would have bought the console for pokemon as similar big games already existed (mh, nintendo games)

the opposite is true with ps4, where we've only received dqh spinoff and mgsv is only coming out now, so next year sales will be increasing, iirc ps3 showed the same trend when it came to sales

price is also a factor, 3ds is cheaper so it can be more of a impulse buy, the same can't be said for ps4

 

[Alo0oy]

Really? Who are these people?

I don't remember, but a month or two ago I asked what people were expecting in the MC thread, and they were very down on The Phantom Pain.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Well, it's not based solely on the the microcosm of internet message boards. We can also look at, you know, actual sales. Where mainline FF is longer a multimillion seller and direct mainline sequels are no longer even million sellers. I'm not sure if I'd characterize FFX/X-2 HD as doing especially well either. They're well below the DS remakes, more comparable to the GBA conversions.

It isn't exactly controversial to suggest FFXV will perform below XIII.

The DS games were essentially a Remake. FF X|X-2 was a HD remaster, not a Remake. They aren't even comparable. The only million seller was the first Remake (FF3) and all the subsequent releases didn't manage a million AFAIK.

FF VII Remake is the first big remake since we got them on the DS. It should be used for comparison, not the X|X-2 HD Remaster, which was the best selling HD Remaster in Japan surpassing the likes of Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts.

I am positive FFXV is going to easily outsell FF XIII in worldwide sales. Although due to the user base in Japan, I am not sure if it can manage to beat the LTD sales of FF XIII. But I don't think it won't beat it WW.

Just be honest here. What did FF fans had to play in the last couple of years starting with the release of FF XIII?

Two spin-offs that no one asked, and each one was worse than its predecessor.
A HD Remaster of a game that was already available in Japan.
A cheap Monster Hunter clone.
Tons of mobile spin-offs, some of which were successful.
HD Remaster of one of the most popular FF game.
Relaunch of a failed MMO.

I don't remember any game like Crisis Core, Dissidia being released for the current generation hardware like Vita/3DS.

 

[Vena]

dq will sell very well on ps4, im expecting minmum 50/50 ratio for both skus launch week and LTD, comparisons to smash bros isn't very good, since it wasn't simultaneous, the only thing that affects that will be the nx sku, but even nx sku should affect both platforms equally

i think 6millon LTD for ps4 is more realistic than it not reaching it, if u look at the 3ds, it's first years already built the userbase as most of the big franchises like mh and animal crossing already had iterations, whereas in 2013 pokemon was the only new franchise to appear but most people would have bought the console for pokemon as similar big games already existed (mh, nintendo games)

the opposite is true with ps4, where we've only received dqh spinoff and mgsv is only coming out now, so next year sales will be increasing, iirc ps3 showed the same trend when it came to sales

price is also a factor, 3ds is cheaper so it can be more of a impulse buy, the same can't be said for ps4

I don't think anyone is saying, outright, that the PS4 won't or can't reach 6m, its a question of when and, in theory, if at all given we don't know its eventual lifetime period but not that it is fundamentally impossible. (Also people need to stop comparing things to the PS3/Wii era, that time is long gone. And, as I've said before, known quantity releases see their affects overtime (and usually early) and they aren't what ultimately change the fate of hardware unless things start off with a bang and stay that way. You need unexpected software to shake up interest, not tried and true IP that people have seen and experience a dozen times over... or already bought the console for in the past.)

Also those are some mighty, mighty high expectations of DQXI you have. Simultaneous or differed isn't that large of a differentiator on how much a split is going to be as they offer their own pros and cons with adoption/double dip/impulse purchases, but here you're outright saying that what was a 80/20 split (as by virtue of simple platform population logistics) is going to fly to 50/50 (with similar platform population logistical differences). Do you expect the 3DS to simply lose all its software buying audience? This ratio is simply impossible without the total collapse of the 3DS userbase on levels even beyond that of even the PS3's collapse.

This ratio wouldn't even be realistic if the games were completely and totally different.

I don't remember, but a month or two ago I asked what people were expecting in the MC thread, and they were very down on The Phantom Pain.

Are you sure you're not just confusing realistic corrections with pessimism? A month or so ago was around when we had a second round of "what's going to outsell Splatoon" that ferried in some very... interesting discussions about certain titles.

 

[Alo0oy]

Are you sure you're not just confusing realistic corrections with pessimism? A month or so ago was around when we had a second round of "what's going to outsell Splatoon" that ferried in some very... interesting discussions about certain titles.

People were very pessimistic about TPP a month ago, and even moreso the PS4 last year when it was doing 7k weekly. And everyone that said it will improve dramatically because of Bloodborne/MGS/DQ this year got laughed at because "the same thing was said about the Wii U lol PS4 is dead".

While some people in this thread are being very optimistic (it won't sell better than PS3), but if this year has proven anything, it's that PS4 responds to software very well, and it's quietly having a good year.

It doesn't have to be one extreme or the other, PS4 won't sell better than PS3, but it won't do as badly as some of the pessimists here are saying either, mainline FF and DQ doing less than 1 million is as outrageous as the PS4 selling as well as the PS3.

 

[Aostia]

yes, I think that the last few pages saw some exageration on one side and the other.
to me:

PS4 will not sell as much as the PS3, and this come from one of the few that believed this after the good debut week.

At the same time, I think that %-wise PS4 will be, in Japan, the best selling console of this generation compared to the previous one (with 3DS losing around 30% of previous gen compared to the DS, Wii U and Vita selling even worse compared to PSP and Wii and Xone...)

FFXV will easily sell more than 1 million on PS4 in Japan. I'd say the same for DQXI, even if the 3DS (and possible NX? we don't have many hints) presence make the prediction more difficult, imho.

FF brand is obviously under "evaluation" in terms of possible decrease in popularity in Japan, after the mixed reception (critic-wise and sales wise) of XIII and its sequels. At the same time, it's pretty obvious how spinoff, remakes and HD ports are way weaker tha a main entry, and how good the reception to FFXV has been so far.

FFVII potential is very strong too, but it's right to look at it as a remake that, on paper, shouldn't be able to hugely outpace a brand new episode (also because if so, this point would somehow downtone the previous one). Looking back, about the original sales, I'd say that obviously the International version inflated the global sales too.

Splatoon will continue selling, but will not last forever at the actual pace. it's pretty obvious imho. This doens' mean that it will not reach 1 million by the end of the year, but I think that someone is also overestimating its actual/future digital sales (do we have any statistic on how digital sales last in general in the long term?)

 

[Oregano]

No. I feel that between mobile and portable, the appetite for home consoles simply doesn't exist on a major scale, and that Japanese gamers as a whole are fine with missing lots of high profile titles because they don't fit their lifestyle.

You would have to have the reverse, a scenario where compelling content dried up on the other two platforms, in order to stoke otherwise satisfied people to look into new options, and even then you'd just lose many.

I'm of the opinion that such a console this gen could have been more popular than Wii U and PS4 but it would still be a decline on last gen systems

I do think that a lot of publishers and developers have been too complacent and ignorant of what audiences actually want and missed prime opportunities though. No mothership Tales on PSP is a major misstep for instance.