Support NeoGAF

[TheLegendaryN]

I hope I don't have to skip 5 pages again of the same Monster Hunter discussion.

Nah, it's mostly about GE.

 

[schuelma]

If you see the actual MH switch situation as comparable to the MH4 3ds announcement I think you should work at Capcom

I think he might work at Capcom. Just completely ignoring MH 3G is laughable.

 

[Mory Dunz]

we need more mh talk:
Higher LTD, Odyssey or MHW?

 

[Jawbreaker]

we need more mh talk:
Higher LTD, Odyssey or MHW?

In Japan? MHW.

 

[Skullwaker]

we need more mh talk:
Higher LTD, Odyssey or MHW?

3D Land sold over 2m. I think Odyssey will sell similarly.

I don't see MHW selling that much.

 

[Vena]

In Japan? MHW.

?

Look at 3DLand.

 

[Chris1964]

3D Land sold over 2m. I think Odyssey will sell similarly.

I don't see MHW selling that much.

I still wait to see if Odyssey will head for 3D Land or Galaxy numbers. After holidays it will be clear. Signs so far tend to the first. If it goes that way it won't be even close.

 

[silpheed-mcd]

Mario 3d sales, preorders, hardware:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=251120663&postcount=841

 

[Vena]

^or that

----

This is 3D Land:
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} - 344,698 / 2,046,089

And these are the Galaxy games:
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) {2007.11.01} (¥5,800) - 256,341 / 1,025,664
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) {2010.05.27} (¥5,800) - 337,569 / 1,046,696

The former won't even be a competition.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

^or that

----

This is 3D Land:
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} - 344,698 / 2,046,089

And these are the Galaxy games:
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) {2007.11.01} (¥5,800) - 256,341 / 1,025,664
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) {2010.05.27} (¥5,800) - 337,569 / 1,046,696

The former won't even be a competition.

Is that saying it sold 344k its first week, but finished at over 2 million? Thats some serious legs for a single player game.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I still wait to see if Odyssey will head for 3D Land or Galaxy numbers. After holidays it will be clear. Signs so far tend to the first. If it goes that way it won't be even close.

Galaxy numbers would be quite disappointing considering how much 3DLand/3DW sold last gen and the numbers Switch is putting up.

But yeah.... That's quite unlikely anyway.

Is that saying it sold 344k its first week, but finished at over 2 million? Thats some serious legs for a single player game.

I mean it's a Mario platformer on a system that sold +20m units.

If those type games couldnt deliver and sell over a whole gen there would be no reason to stay in this market lol.

 

[noshten]

I don't think there is a chance of SMO's LTD being below 2 million. If it's heavily bundled it will be well over a million by the end of this year.

 

[Vena]

Is that saying it sold 344k its first week, but finished at over 2 million? Thats some serious legs for a single player game.

Yes. First week sales/pre-orders for these games are near irrelevant, they just keep selling (even with more sales in used).

 

[silpheed-mcd]

ComG! preorders:

Super mario odyssey +4

MHW +7

Pokémon us/um +10 (+13 with double pack)

http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/

 

[Oregano]

Super Mario Odyssey is also the last big game of the year on Switch(or any platform?) and it's going to be bundled. It's got a big leg up.

 

[Vena]

ComG! preorders:
MHW +3
http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/

MHW sales slowed to a crawl over the past four or five days on COMG, not sure why. Been like 2-3 points.

 

[fortunato]

Odyssey sales will be really interesting to analyze.

On the one hand, it's a 3D Mario game, more similar to Galaxy than 3D Land; on the other hand, it's on handheld, and on a wildly successful console that should really explode these holidays. Also, it's Nintendo top release for late-2017, so it will be heavily advertised. I think it'll be around a million units by the end of the year. It should not have any problems in clearing 2 millions LTD.

We must also remember that it's been quite a few years since the last proper Mario platform game. 3D World was released in 2013. Galaxy was released during the New Super Mario Bros. craze so its spotlight was a bit stolen.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Seems like Mostly Odyssey mostly then.


Hm, well Nintendo's Big 1st party games seem to be really outpacing their previous entries. Zelda is by a lot. Splatoon 2 willl destroy 1. Even MKD8 as a remaster is holding a slight edge

 

[silpheed-mcd]

MHW sales slowed to a crawl over the past four or five days on COMG, not sure why. Been like 2-3 points.

Maybe the monster hunter core gamers have already booked the game, now it is the "general public" that reserves little as far from the release date but that will book more in the last weeks, i have noticed this many times in the past.

 

[fortunato]

Seems like Mostly Odyssey mostly then.


Hm, well Nintendo's Big 1st party games seem to be really outpacing their previous entries. Zelda is by a lot. Splatoon 2 willl destroy 1. Even MKD8 as a remaster is holding a slight edge

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe must have a terrific ROI. A porting projected to sell 8m+ units is something that we don't see very often.

 

[Laplasakos]

MHW sales slowed to a crawl over the past four or five days on COMG, not sure why. Been like 2-3 points.

Seems like normal to me. Never believed that the game could open at 1m. It will be great even if it matches DQXI opening. I think people revised or better skyrocked their predictions after seeing the DQXI sales and i can already see how the thread with FW numbers will go.

I am still sticking to my original prediction which was basically MHTri numbers.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe must have a terrific ROI. A porting projected to sell 8m+ units is something that we don't see very often.

apparently it always clearly obvious it was going to outsell MK8 ww and Japan though

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

MHW was never going to maintain its crazy 10+ points every day. If someone could allign it with DQ11 PS4 then we could have something more to discuss on it.

 

[fluffydelusions]

Super Mario Odyssey is also the last big game of the year on Switch(or any platform?) and it's going to be bundled. It's got a big leg up.

Xenoblade?

 

[silpheed-mcd]

Xenoblade?

Xeno wii,3ds and wii u were not big games for sales in Japan


Xenoblade Wii

ComG! preorders, last day: 72 pt

Famitsu, first week:
01./00. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) - 79,163 / NEW

LTD: 163.442

Media-create:
01. / 00. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) - 82.952 / NEW

LTD: 00./00. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - * / 197.000


Xenoblade Chronicles 3D

ComG! preorders, last day: 26 pt

Famitsu:
03./00. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 43.762 / NEW <40-60%>

LTD: 80. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 85.454

Media-create:
03./00. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 56.932 / NEW <58,66%>

LTD: 357./070. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |New Nintendo 2DS/New Nintendo 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.700) - 10.288 / 113.783 (-90%) (56.932 <58,66%>)

Xenoblade Chronicles X Wii U

ComG! preorders, last day: 69 pt

Famitsu:
03./00. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 88.544 / NEW <60-80%>

LTD: 114.665 ( digital 22.805) ----> 137.470

Media-create:
03./00. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW

LTD: 389./064. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥7.700) - 8.753 / 127.366 (-93%) (85.586 <72,01%>)

 

[Chris1964]

gamesmaya

Recent inventory inquiries top 3

1. Nintendo Classic Mini: Super Famicom
2. Nintendo Switch
3. Sony PlayStation VR new model {2017.10.14}

Both Super Famicom and Switch remain at short supply, next big shipment for SFC is expected at the beginning of November, for Switch at the end of October with Odyssey launch.

There was a business meeting with Nintendo and retailers earlier this week. It's possible flow of shipments for this quarter was detailed there, but apparently it will take a little more time until things become better since smaller stores still face big problems with supply.

 

[Skullwaker]

I still wait to see if Odyssey will head for 3D Land or Galaxy numbers. After holidays it will be clear. Signs so far tend to the first. If it goes that way it won't be even close.

I think we'll see a BotW-like effect with Odyssey. It's a complete revolution for the series, and on a handheld system which gives it a leg up over the Galaxy games. It doesn't play like a 2D game like 3D Land so that might hurt it, but it should be more critically acclaimed which can have an impact.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Xeno wii and wii u were not big games for sales in Japan

hm, now I wonder if Xeno or Octopath will sell more. After the direct and responses, I might go Octopath, but that feels wrong in a way lol

 

[Oregano]

MHW was never going to maintain its crazy 10+ points every day. If someone could allign it with DQ11 PS4 then we could have something more to discuss on it.

Shouldn't it be compared to MHXX?

 

[schuelma]

Shouldn't it be compared to MHXX?

The comparison would have been over after the first week

 

[Kanann]

hm, now I wonder if Xeno or Octopath will sell more. After the direct and responses, I might go Octopath, but that feels wrong in a way lol

I bet Xeno2.

Octopath look like a game for old people that still miss Saga series, and look at the lastest Saga number...

Both will be great game tho.

 

[Vena]

Shouldn't it be compared to MHXX?

That comparison became pointless after the first week. MHXX was getting 15-20+ points daily where MHW wasn't (and hasn't been) maintaining consistent double digits. This week it slowed down even more.

 

[Oregano]

The comparison would have been over after the first week

That comparison became pointless after the first week. MHXX was getting 15-20+ points daily where MHW wasn't (and hasn't been) maintaining consistent double digits. This week it slowed down even more.

Considering MHXX already debuted under a million and was on 3DS(where preorder to sales ratio is traditionally lower) that doesn't bode too well.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I bet Xeno2.

Octopath look like a game for old people that still miss Saga series, and look at the lastest Saga number...

Both will be great game tho.

hm, I could see octopath being surprisingly popular in the west. Maybe Xeno in JP, octo in the west. Tales from my butt of course.

 

[schuelma]

Considering MHXX already debuted under a million and was on 3DS(where preorder to sales ratio is traditionally lower) that doesn't bode too well.

Ohhhhh I got ya. Thought you were talking about the Switch version. Yes, XX 3DS might be the best comparison we have.

 

[Orgen]

There was a business meeting with Nintendo and retailers earlier this week. It's possible flow of shipments for this quarter was detailed there, but apparently it will take a little more time until things become better since smaller stores still face big problems with supply.

Are there any numbers for the Snes Classic shipment? I know it was greater than NES classic so maybe we are looking at 300-400.000? (500.000 seems too much for me)

 

[Chris1964]

Initial shipment for SNES exploded at west comparing to NES. Famicom Mini opening was already high at Japan at almost 300k, it won't be a surprise if Nintendo shipped 100 - 200k more this time.

 

[Vena]

Considering MHXX already debuted under a million and was on 3DS(where preorder to sales ratio is traditionally lower) that doesn't bode too well.

We don't have a comparison point for this, unfortunately.

 

[whyamihere]

Xeno wii,3ds and wii u were not big games for sales in Japan


Xenoblade Wii

ComG! preorders, last day: 72 pt

Famitsu, first week:
01./00. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) - 79,163 / NEW

LTD: 163.442

Media-create:
01. / 00. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) - 82.952 / NEW

LTD: 00./00. [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles <RPG> (Nintendo) {2010.06.10} (¥6.800) - * / 197.000


Xenoblade Chronicles 3D

ComG! preorders, last day: 26 pt

Famitsu, first week:
03./00. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 43.762 / NEW <40-60%>

LTD: 80. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 85.454

Media-create:
03./00. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |new 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.996) - 56.932 / NEW <58,66%>

LTD: 357./070. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D |New Nintendo 2DS/New Nintendo 3DS| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.02} (¥3.700) - 10.288 / 113.783 (-90%) (56.932 <58,66%>)

Xenoblade Chronicles X Wii U

ComG! preorders, last day: 69 pt

Famitsu, first week:
03./00. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 88.544 / NEW <60-80%>

LTD: 114.665 ( digital 22.805) ----> 137.470

Media-create:
03./00. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥8.316) - 85.586 / NEW

LTD: 389./064. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.04.29} (¥7.700) - 8.753 / 127.366 (-93%) (85.586 <72,01%>)

I bet Xeno2 will do better than any of these.

 

[Oregano]

We don't have a comparison point for this, unfortunately.

It would be wonky as hell but someone could use MHXX, DQXI 3DS and DQXI PS4 to forecast it(?)

 

[silpheed-mcd]

I bet Xeno2 will do better than any of these.

I hope too.

 

[Orgen]

Initial shipment for SNES exploded at west comparing to NES. Famicom Mini opening was already high at Japan at almost 300k, it won't be a surprise if Nintendo shipped 100 - 200k more this time.

A 500.000 FW would make it as one of the best launches ever, right? Top 3 after PS2 and GBA? (I'm missing something for sure).

Anyway, we'll see next week

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I bet Xeno2 will do better than any of these.

Hopefully.

 

[Vena]

It would be wonky as hell but someone could use MHXX, DQXI 3DS and DQXI PS4 to forecast it(?)

Well, problem is that MH has (at least on 3DS) had high pre-orders with bad ratios because its a core oriented title, usually ending in the multiple thousands and then opening at ~1.5-2m. DQXI is/was much more casual.

I think silpheed-mcd's analysis is correct, we've exhausted the core fans and we're now looking at the more trickle oriented casual audience.

 

[Oregano]

Well, problem is that MH has (at least on 3DS) had high pre-orders with bad ratios because its a core oriented title, usually ending in the multiple thousands and then opening at ~1.5-2m. DQXI is/was much more casual.

I think silpheed-mcd's analysis is correct, we've exhausted the core fans and we're now looking at the more trickle oriented casual audience.

That's what I mean though. You could use MHXX and DQXI 3DS to compare ratios between franchises and the two SKUs of DQXI to compare ratios between systems and then apply that to MHW to try to forecast it. It would probably be way out from the end result anyway though!

 

[silpheed-mcd]

Big mistake, my bad

MHW +7 today, not +3

Sorry , you can whip me I will not move

 

[cw_sasuke]

I bet Xeno2 will do better than any of these.

Anything else would be a surprise to me.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I bet Xeno2 will do better than any of these.

I'd assume so, unless things go wrong.

 

[Vena]

Big mistake, my bad

MHW +7 today, not +3

Sorry , you can whip me I will not move

Its not that much of a difference, lol. Don't worry.

 

[Malakai]

Yes. Many third parties seem happier to launch collaborations with Nintendo on Nintendo's platforms than just their full general line-up.

I don't understand why Nintendo does this at all. Why don't Nintendo expand their workforce instead of rely on Bandai Namco's workforce? In the short term, I understand it could be due to cost but long term cost of not having the home grown talent.