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[electroplankton]

It's strange.
Now, first is the 32 GB card... but it isn't properly what I find strange, since Vita itself is soldout.
What I find strange is that right now the most desiderd game is... Uncharted.
And then HSG6.
...Uncharted...WHAT.

P.S. Another strange thing that can explain Uncharted preminant position is that Dynasty Warriors Next isn't available for preorder yet.

This is not strange at all.
Uncharted is not a Japanese game but it's the most important game for the console, the game that will show the capacities of Vita under different point of views (graphics, touch screen, etc.). And it's a launch-game, probabily it will end up to be the best selling game in the series over there.

 

[LOCK]

Why get more copies of a game full of boobs out to coincide with a new colour aimed at girls?

Not just girls buy Pink consoles. More people in store, better chance game will sell.

 

[Mpl90]

...Sony is pushing the most expensive version?
...Are they crazy? XD

 

[Chris1964]

 

[LOCK]

...Sony is pushing the most expensive version?
...Are they crazy? XD

Probably not for launch, since the Sony Elite will come out in full force. But after that, then yes, crazy as a bat.

 

[Mpl90]

Lots of people waiting for stores to open, right?

 

[frankie_baby]

Probably not for launch, since the Sony Elite will come out in full force. But after that, then yes, crazy as a bat.

Sony PR - during our launch customers clearly chose by a margin of 2 to 1 that they prefer the 3g model so we will be discontinuing the wifi only model immediately

 

[djplaeskool]

Oh wow.
Number 1 and 2 are the 32GB Memory Card and the 3G/WiFi model.
Japan doesn't give a fuck.

 

[Road]

Damn lines for pre-order. Seriously? ...

This is not strange at all.
Uncharted is not a Japanese game but it's the most important game for the console, the game that will show the capacities of Vita under different point of views (graphics, touch screen, etc.). And it's a launch-game, probabily it will end up to be the best selling game in the series over there.

It's not strange indeed, although not really because of that, but simply because he's looking at Amazon Japan -- where hardcore, niche and western games perform better.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Oh wow.
Number 1 and 2 are the 32GB Memory Card and the 3G/WiFi model.
Japan doesn't give a fuck.

You shouldn't read TOO much in those pre-orders.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Those lines above are for the Vita?
Wow they are, nice.

 

[djplaeskool]

You shouldn't read TOO much in those pre-orders.

Noted. Will hide in the bushes and wait patiently.

 

[Chris1964]

Oh wow.
Number 1 and 2 are the 32GB Memory Card and the 3G/WiFi model.
Japan doesn't give a fuck.

Sellout for a new system day one on amazon means absolutely nothing.

Nintendo is preparing new Christmas marketing campaign for Rhythm Heaven.

 

[Truth101]

Oh wow.
Number 1 and 2 are the 32GB Memory Card and the 3G/WiFi model.
Japan doesn't give a fuck.

Happens whenever a new system is announced, it will drop.

 

[Mpl90]

Damn lines for pre-order. Seriously? ...

Well, we saw them also for 3DS early this year IIRC.
This happens when something is anticipated by the customers.
And I don't think no one doubts that Vita should debut well, actually... the main problem is after the launch, with the scarce line up it has.

EDIT: Christmas marketing campaign for RH? Expected. It's Nintendo after all! And they're good in this.

 

[frankie_baby]

Nintendo is preparing new Christmas marketing campaign for Rhythm Heaven.

Yet another Wii million seller in the bag then

 

[Road]

You shouldn't read TOO much in those pre-orders.

Yeah.

Similarly to the COMGNET situation, people have to understand that, not only Amazon Japan has a very, very, very, very small share of the market, it also has a very specific demographic that favors western, hardcore and niche titles. Not at all an accurate measure of the Japanese market overall.

 

[Chris1964]

There is only one week so far that hardware has topped one million and maybe we'll see the second this year if Sony doesn't have a PSP-like initial shipment for Vita.

Actually it looks week 51 will destroy every previous record.

 

[djplaeskool]

There is only one week so far that hardware has topped one million and maybe we'll see the second this year if Sony doesn't have a PSP-like initial shipment for Vita.

What was first shipment numbers? (I think I remember it being something like only 100k)

 

[Chris1964]

What was first shipment numbers? (I think I remember it being something like only 100k)

I remember a 180K number.

Edit: It was 200k.

 

[Road]

Well, we saw them also for 3DS early this year IIRC.
This happens when something is anticipated by the customers.
And I don't think no one doubts that Vita should debut well, actually... the main problem is after the launch, with the scarce line up it has.

EDIT: Christmas marketing campaign for RH? Expected. It's Nintendo after all! And they're good in this.

I completely forgot about the lines to pre-order the 3DS.

Maybe I just decided to erase from my mind that people are lining up to pre-order something, anything.

 

[frankie_baby]

There is only one week so far that hardware has topped one million and maybe we'll see the second this year if Sony doesn't have a PSP-like initial shipment for Vita.

Actually it looks week 51 will destroy every previous record.

I'm thinking wether week 51 breaks records has more to do with 3ds stock levels than the vita launch

 

[Lesiroth]

VITA IS ALREADY DEAD

 

[Mpl90]

I completely forgot about the lines to pre-order the 3DS.

Maybe I just decided to erase from my mind that people are lining up to pre-order something, anything.

I remember also that cvxfreak went to different stores to preorder 5 3DS (yes) and he had some adventures.

...And here's the article about it

http://andriasang.com/comtk8/

 

[Chris1964]

I'm thinking wether week 51 breaks records has more to do with 3ds stock levels than the vita launch

I don't believe there will be stock problems. Nintendo needs to have huge amounts of systems ready to ship in order to meet FY targets.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't believe there will be stock problems. Nintendo needs to have huge amounts of systems ready to ship in order to meet FY targets.

You're probably right though the couple of weeks before that should have such mental sales that I don't know

 

[BurntPork]

I don't believe there will be stock problems. Nintendo needs to have huge amounts of systems ready to ship in order to meet FY targets.

I think at this point even Nintendo knows that hell will freeze over before they meet that ludicrous target they set for 3DS this FY. (Unless you just mean the Japanese target... whatever that is.)

 

[Erethian]

It's not strange indeed, although not really because of that, but simply because he's looking at Amazon Japan -- where hardcore, niche and western games perform better.

Yeah, like Comgent recently there seems to be a bit too much focus on Amazon rankings lately. They're a curiosity but otherwise meaningless.

 

[spwolf]

Even adding all platforms, the decline is still considerable:

World Soccer Winning Eleven 9: 1.320.000
World Soccer Winning Eleven 10: 1.384.000
World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008: 1.418.000
World Soccer Winning Eleven 2009: 976.000
World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010: 837.000
World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011: 852.000

And 2011 is only up because I added the 3DS version (100k). =P

i am sure 2012 will end up being best selling pes since 2008, but in general, all those big sports titles declined in japan since ps2 era.

 

[LOCK]

I think at this point even Nintendo knows that hell will freeze over before they meet that ludicrous target they set for 3DS this FY. (Unless you just mean the Japanese target... whatever that is.)

Nintendo will announce their quarterly report in a few weeks, and that will show us how things have improved over the first quarter. I think they will come close to their 16mil FY forecast.

16mil - .71mil Q1 = 15.29mil left to sell from July till the end of March 2012.

NPD:
July - 92k
August - 235k
September - 260k
Total: 587k

Media Create:
3DS LTD July 3: 1,188,335
3DS LTD Oct 2: 1,964,105
Total: 775,770

Europe is their biggest region so far, so I expect for it to have done better than NPD. Lets just say 600k.

Total Q2: 1.96mil

Remaining forecast: 13.28mil.

That is going to be lower than their reported numbers. Nintendo almost always doubles their Q2 numbers for Q3. A big thing to note is that Nintendo has not launched a new console outside of the fall season (recently), so this Q3 will be unusual for them. In other words it should be noticeable large compared to their Q2.

Forecast for Q3:

Being modest I think.

NPD
Oct - 260k
Nov. - 500k
Dec. - 1mil
Total: 1.76mil

Europe should do at least the same (but really more), so another 1.76mil

Japan:
If it continues to follow DS 2005 it will sell an additional 2.2mil

Total Q3: 5.72
Total remaining: 7.56mil

So that seems impossible, but I expect the 3DS to explode this holiday in all regions. I do believe the 3DS will sell more than those modest estimates especially in Europe. Not to mention all the regions that I haven't even included or have any idea how things are selling in those regions. I expect Q3 to be around or above 8mil. Like always Q3 will determine if they make it or not. Nintendo is usually very good with their fore cast.

God this is a long post lol

 

[Mpl90]

LOL

December 12, 2004. Lengthy late night lines form at major retailers as Sony makes its debut on the portable game scene with the PSP. Famitsu does a head count at the Bic Camera in Ikebukuro and determines that about 1,200 people have lined up.


November 10, 2006. Lengthy late night lines form at major retailers as Sony releases the PlayStation 3. Gigazine does a head count at an Osaka Yodobashi Camera and determines that about 1,200 people have lined up.


Today, 2011. Lengthy lines form at major retailers as Sony begins pre-orders for PlayStation Vita. Nikkei does a count at Akihabara's Yodobashi Camera and determines that about 1,200 people in line.

Three systems, 1,200 people. Coincidence? Or evidence of a Force ala Star Wars?

Actually, I'm just wondering how Famitsu estimated 500 people for the Yodobashi line while Nikkei estimated 1,200. Since Nikkei is known for its coverage of the economy, I'll go with their count. (For the record, Mainichi Entertainment says its 700).

 

[walking fiend]

Nintendo will announce their quarterly report in a few weeks, and that will show us how things have improved over the first quarter. I think they will come close to their 16mil FY forecast.

16mil - .71mil Q1 = 15.29mil left to sell from July till the end of March 2012.

NPD:
July - 92k
August - 235k
September - 260k
Total: 587k

Media Create:
3DS LTD July 3: 1,188,335
3DS LTD Oct 2: 1,964,105
Total: 775,770

Europe is their biggest region so far, so I expect for it to have done better than NPD. Lets just say 600k.

Total Q2: 1.96mil

Remaining forecast: 13.28mil.

That is going to be lower than their reported numbers. Nintendo almost always doubles their Q2 numbers for Q3. A big thing to note is that Nintendo has not launched a new console outside of the fall season (recently), so this Q3 will be unusual for them. In other words it should be noticeable large compared to their Q2.

Forecast for Q3:

Being modest I think.

NPD
Oct - 260k
Nov. - 500k
Dec. - 1mil
Total: 1.76mil

Europe should do at least the same (but really more), so another 1.76mil

Japan:
If it continues to follow DS 2005 it will sell an additional 2.2mil

Total Q3: 5.72
Total remaining: 7.56mil

So that seems impossible, but I expect the 3DS to explode this holiday in all regions. I do believe the 3DS will sell more than those modest estimates especially in Europe. Not to mention all the regions that I haven't even included or have any idea how things are selling in those regions. I expect Q3 to be around or above 8mil. Like always Q3 will determine if they make it or not. Nintendo is usually very good with their fore cast.

God this is a long post lol

I believe 16m was the landmark for the end of this FY, not during.

 

[Road]

I believe 16m was the landmark for the end of this FY, not during.

Nope. 16 million within the 12 months from April, 2011, to March, 2012.

 

[Chris1964]

Actually, I'm just wondering how Famitsu estimated 500 people for the Yodobashi line while Nikkei estimated 1,200. Since Nikkei is known for its coverage of the economy, I'll go with their count. (For the record, Mainichi Entertainment says its 700).

Ahaha

 

[Mpl90]

Nintendo will announce their quarterly report in a few weeks, and that will show us how things have improved over the first quarter. I think they will come close to their 16mil FY forecast.

16mil - .71mil Q1 = 15.29mil left to sell from July till the end of March 2012.

NPD:
July - 92k
August - 235k
September - 260k
Total: 587k

Media Create:
3DS LTD July 3: 1,188,335
3DS LTD Oct 2: 1,964,105
Total: 775,770

Europe is their biggest region so far, so I expect for it to have done better than NPD. Lets just say 600k.

Total Q2: 1.96mil

Remaining forecast: 13.28mil.

That is going to be lower than their reported numbers. Nintendo almost always doubles their Q2 numbers for Q3. A big thing to note is that Nintendo has not launched a new console outside of the fall season (recently), so this Q3 will be unusual for them. In other words it should be noticeable large compared to their Q2.

Forecast for Q3:

Being modest I think.

NPD
Oct - 260k
Nov. - 500k
Dec. - 1mil
Total: 1.76mil

Europe should do at least the same (but really more), so another 1.76mil

Japan:
If it continues to follow DS 2005 it will sell an additional 2.2mil

Total Q3: 5.72
Total remaining: 7.56mil

So that seems impossible, but I expect the 3DS to explode this holiday in all regions. I do believe the 3DS will sell more than those modest estimates especially in Europe. Not to mention all the regions that I haven't even included or have any idea how things are selling in those regions. I expect Q3 to be around or above 8mil. Like always Q3 will determine if they make it or not. Nintendo is usually very good with their fore cast.

God this is a long post lol

Mmh, I don't know about Europe. I don't think 3DS is doing better in Europe than USA...indeed,I think it is doing WORSE in Europe than USA so far.
I would like to see Chris1964's opinion on this matter.

 

[Chris1964]

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Of course shipped isn't sold, but as of their last quarterly report they'd shipped the most to Europe--and that wasn't the case the previous quarter, when the numbers for NA/EU were just launch shipments.

 

[walking fiend]

Nope. 16 million within the 12 months from April, 2011, to March, 2012.

seems you are right.

However, what I believe to be totally impossible, is hitting 62m software sale prediction. That simply is not possible, it'll be almost 3 game per device if they hit 20m HW prediction, or like 4 if they reach 15m or so.

 

[Mpl90]

Yes, shipment has been larger in Europe in Q1... But will it be again in this quarter?
And, above all, will the number of units sold be near to the number of units shipped in EU?
What do you think, Chris, after you posted a massive load of photos?

 

[Lesiroth]

LOL

Seems like the Vita will share a similar fate to its predecessors

 

[Gravijah]

Seems like the Vita will share a similar fate to its predecessors

hardware was never a problem for the PSP. software... :/

 

[BurntPork]

Nintendo will announce their quarterly report in a few weeks, and that will show us how things have improved over the first quarter. I think they will come close to their 16mil FY forecast.

16mil - .71mil Q1 = 15.29mil left to sell from July till the end of March 2012.

NPD:
July - 92k
August - 235k
September - 260k
Total: 587k

Media Create:
3DS LTD July 3: 1,188,335
3DS LTD Oct 2: 1,964,105
Total: 775,770

Europe is their biggest region so far, so I expect for it to have done better than NPD. Lets just say 600k.

Total Q2: 1.96mil

Remaining forecast: 13.28mil.

That is going to be lower than their reported numbers. Nintendo almost always doubles their Q2 numbers for Q3. A big thing to note is that Nintendo has not launched a new console outside of the fall season (recently), so this Q3 will be unusual for them. In other words it should be noticeable large compared to their Q2.

Forecast for Q3:

Being modest I think.

NPD
Oct - 260k
Nov. - 500k
Dec. - 1mil
Total: 1.76mil

Europe should do at least the same (but really more), so another 1.76mil

Japan:
If it continues to follow DS 2005 it will sell an additional 2.2mil

Total Q3: 5.72
Total remaining: 7.56mil

So that seems impossible, but I expect the 3DS to explode this holiday in all regions. I do believe the 3DS will sell more than those modest estimates especially in Europe. Not to mention all the regions that I haven't even included or have any idea how things are selling in those regions. I expect Q3 to be around or above 8mil. Like always Q3 will determine if they make it or not. Nintendo is usually very good with their fore cast.

God this is a long post lol

3DS is not going to sell as much as it did in Sepetember this month in the US. It's five weeks vs four, and the 3DS got a new color and SF64 last month. Its weekly average will probably drop significantly. The October NPD will probably be no more than 180k.

 

[Chris1964]

I find hard to believe 3DS is doing much worse in Europe than NA. November and December will be the crucial months so it's a wait and see game right now. If Nintendo doesn't do Japan-like aggressive moves for west the following weeks they'll miss the target.

 

[BurntPork]

I find hard to believe 3DS is doing much worse in Europe than NA. November and December will be the crucial months so it's a wait and see game right now. If Nintendo doesn't do Japan-like aggressive moves for west the following weeks they'll miss the target.

The target was pure hubris in the first place. They never had a chance of hitting it.

 

[Chris1964]

What's the reason always everybody lines at big stores when he could do his work easier and faster at a smaller one? Does he get extra points for future, bonus, discounted prices?

 

[Mpl90]

What's the reason always everybody lines at big stores when he could do his work easier and faster at a smaller one? Does he get extra points for future, bonus, discounted prices?

Respect and pride.
Japan is a country where honour is important.

 

[walking fiend]

3DS is not going to sell as much as it did in Sepetember this month in the US. It's five weeks vs four, and the 3DS got a new color and SF64 last month. Its weekly average will probably drop significantly. The October NPD will probably be no more than 180k.

it's hard to predict how much it'll sell. People may get it solely in anticipation of November and December. It will also cut more into DS share. I'd say 180k is somewhat a safe bet, I expect something like 225K. (btw, 180k doesn't point to a significant drop, it'll be 45k vs 51k)

 

[BurntPork]

it's hard to predict how much it'll sell. People may get it solely in anticipation of November and December. It will also cut more into DS share. I'd say 180k is somewhat a safe bet, I expect something like 225K. (btw, 180k doesn't point to a significant drop, it'll be 45k vs 51k)

I don't think anyone's worried that two games will result in sell-outs.

And a 10% drop is significant, imo. At least, it'll be enough to create doom articles about iPhone 4S stealing 3DS sales.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

And a 10% drop is significant, imo. At least, it'll be enough to create doom articles about iPhone 4S stealing 3DS sales.

Nobody needs any impetus for those articles.

 

[AceBandage]

Nobody needs any impetus for those articles.

3DS sells one unit less than last month! Apple poised to buy out Nintendo!