That's the one.
Is that why he hates Iwata.
LOL, it all makes sense now.
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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2013 (Oct 28 - Nov 03)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
That's the one.
Is that why he hates Iwata.
LOL, it all makes sense now.
I'm sure they think "such positivity! such energy and optimism! I suggest a raise for this fine gentleman".
I guess I was right after all.
Next week Akiba's Trip 2 comes out and the week after that there's GE2 so Vita didn't plummet between the 2000 and GE2.
Aquamarine
Member
Code:
[B]FAMITSU HARDWARE SALES, WEEK 44, 2013 (October 28th - November 3rd):[/B]
3DS - 86,868
[B]WIU - 40,118[/B]
PSV - 28,219
PS3 - 11,754
PSP - 3,345
WII - 663
360 - 184
Wii U in REVIVAL MODE!
Now if it could maintain those 40K weeks every single week for the next 12 months, the console may actually experience a turnaround!
I just love this newfound Wii U optimism!
Canis lupus
Member
Already happened with DQ IX. Worst game in the main series IMO.
Bundles happened. I doubt Wii Party U played much of a role.
I explained my view on that already. if Iwata plans that, I assume he has in mind an optimistic scenario where he can achieve half of it, based on the release schedule he knows. That's what I would optimistically count on as a third party, a potential 8/9 millions userbase by April. Now Iwata created miracles twice and a half, so he still counts on a crazy good scenario, knowing even if he's wrong, it will bring more confidence in the platform now, than if he was very conservative. Because 3rd parties would apply their lower factor estimate based on this conservative scenario, and that would not help Wii U.
Puzzle and Dragons Z performance will be by far the most interesting one.
TreasureHunterG
Banned
It won't reach Wii numbers, of course, but will improve, it won't stay as god awful as it was.
Not surprised to the reactions to my post, considering there are notorious doomsayers among them.
Not a miracle. It would take a miracle to make the Wiiu sell something like 5 million. 9 million is completely out of reality.
And the wiiu sales are good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, guys. It's no sucess by any means. It's the best result since the launch, which shows how much it was fucked, but it also shows that there is a chance. A chance. Not a certain thing. It all depends on Nintendo now. Mario, Taiko and Mario and sonic look solid and have some power. They need to market those if they want to make some respectable numbers.
Also, the fit bundle sold the less, but it doesn't mean that no one gaves a shit about the sofrtware itself, just the bundle (which wasn't a much better value proposition, it was more expensive after all) The fit meter has been consistently the number one seller for the wiiu hard/soft on amazon. Unfortunately it's the only news we have about it till Nintendo releases some data.
I thought as much. We'll probably see another bump with Mario for sure. Whether Nintendo can maintain Wii U sales for the next couple of weeks or not is the bigger question.
come next January, I think WiiU will be again 8k~10k until something else happens
wii u sales
Oh my, haha.
If his plan all along is to bring confidence, he's even more out of touch with reality.
Everyone knows that they've reached 5% of their target after 6 months. Five. Percent.
Sticking with the original forecast (which was already rather optimistic) at this stage?
It doesn't inspire confidence, it shows that he's completely out of touch by a metric shit-ton.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
This is kind of irrelevant, but by definition a miracle is something that cannot occur in reality as we know it.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Nah, things tend to ease down a little more gently than that. Can see it going 25-35, 15-20, and then an uptick for Mario (BUT HOW LARGE?!?!?) and sell over 10k for the rest of the year.
Now watch reality bum me over.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Code:[B]FAMITSU HARDWARE SALES, WEEK 44, 2013 (October 28th - November 3rd):[/B] 3DS - 86,868 [B]WIU - 40,118[/B] PSV - 28,219 PS3 - 11,754 PSP - 3,345 WII - 663 360 - 184
Wii U in REVIVAL MODE!
Now if it could maintain those 40K weeks every single week for the next 12 months, the console may actually experience a turnaround!
I just love this newfound Wii U optimism!
Dat positivity
On a side note, how in the hell is that Nintendo stock increased by 8% in less than two days. I ain't complaining though.
turnbuckle
Member
Vita showing signs of life. Keeping the dream alive.
shinra-bansho
Member
I can only surmise you have an incredibly low estimation of the cognitive abilities of both Nintendo's investors and of third party publishing executives.
Third parties aren't applying any factor to Nintendo's projections. They're fully capable of projecting their own realistic expectations, regardless of whatever outlandish number Nintendo throws out. Publishers aren't just looking at whatever Nintendo says and dividing it by two. If Iwata had announced a realistic projection of something like 6M in April, and then subsequently revised it to a now more realistic expectation of 4.5M. Publisher expectations don't suddenly become 3M and 2.25M. While the more attentive among the investors, know full well that the projection is completely out of reach.
Again, false bravado that nobody believes does not instil confidence.
tauroxd
Member
That could be the thing here... And that's sad.wii u sales
spatenfloot
Member
Prepare to
not
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Hey now, 40k is double the amount of units that Europe sent back to create negative shipments for Q2! Things are up! Waaaaay up!
megabytecr
Member
Great all around, great for Wii U, something something at least.
Aquamarine
Member
The fallout from November sales is certainly going to be the real acid test for the future of the console.
If it quickly dips back into below-10K numbers, it's just fundamentally unstable at creating some sort of momentum. If FANTASTIC bundle deals and Super Mario 3D World won't establish a new, more successful baseline, it raises questions as to how successful Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros. Wii U would be at it.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/stock/information/index.html
JP Morgan Chase, Nintendo's third-largest shareholder as of March 31st, 2013, predicts that Nintendo will issue a sharp downward revision to their guidance forecast when October - December results come out, along with a presentation of a new managerial policy.
Nobody is getting fooled here except financially-motivated Nintendo partners / people who don't care about Nintendo's earnings forecast or Wii U sales.
On paper it looks like Nintendo will succeed---with Mario Kart 8, Donkey Kong Country, Bayonetta 2, Zelda, and Smash all buzzing around a 2014 release---so if you're not particularly concerned with the console's relative and exact sell-in / sell-through performance, it's easy to be optimistic for the console's prospects.
Activision UK doesn't have to make major decisions on whether or not to fund video game projects...they're just a satellite. So it's very plausible that their boss would proclaim optimism for the console.
SCEJ actually made some good decisions for the rest of the year. The schedule should make the Vita a bit more relevant 'till the earlier months of the next year.
We need to see if Vita TV will actually be a success or not. I'm betting we'll see some great numbers for Vita on the next weeks.
Hellraider
Member
Vita went from 60k to 25k.I can easily see it going 10-15k next week.
after a month of the worst sales for the console so far, i think sales should at least have been double what they were. i will be surprised if it's over 20k next week. and then there's nothing for the console until mario, and nothing again until donkey kong (which actually does kinda okay as a franchise), with another lull until mario kart.
Most definitely. Personally, I don't think any of those games alone can keep the Wii U sales steady. We'll definitely see a bump in sales during release of those games. What Nintendo needs is a way to keep Wii U sales from falling. Their release schedule kind of sucks, so there's always a period of time where they don't have anything coming out for a good month or two. Nintendo needs to focus on keeping the momentum going with new releases. I believe Donkey Kong was delayed in order to try and maintain the momentum coming off from holidays. Let's just hope they have more in the works for the months following this holiday season.
On a different note, do we know what happened to Hiroshi Yamauchi's shares?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Got a link for that Aqua?
Perhaps optimistically, I'm hoping for it to stay five figures until SM3DW.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
Because that's not how this works. It's only a thing when something happens. i.e..:
1) They don't meet their projections
2) They announce that they have lowered their projections.
Both of those things generate the "investor confidence plummets as Nintendo...." headlines. Which is why you don't do 2 unless you have to. Wait until the new year, in a quiet week. It'll happen then.
Aquamarine
Member
No, I'm sorry. Just take my word for it that it's their expectations...they released a note after the investor briefing (that they attended).
I will tell you that JP Morgan Chase's expectations for FY operating profit is 54.0 billion JPY, only half of what Iwata is expecting (100 billion JPY).
Well, let's look at previous Wii U drops:
Week 51, 2013: 122,356 (3rd week on market)
Week 52, 2013: 76,760 (4th week on market)
Percent Change: -37.265%
Week 1, 2013: 70,662 (5th week on market)
Week 2, 2013: 21,489 (6th week on market)
Percent Change: -69.589%
Week 13, 2013: 21,502 (17th week on market)
Week 14, 2013: 14,413 (18th week on market)
Percent Change: -32.969%
Week 28, 2013: 20,728 (32nd week on market)
Week 29, 2013: 14,024 (33rd week on market)
Percent Change: -32.343%
If we were to apply the same -33% degradation:
Week 44, 2013: 40,118 (48th week on market)
Week 45, 2013: ~26,800 (-33%) (49th week on market)
If we were to go with a more generous -40% for good measure:
Week 44, 2013: 40,118 (48th week on market)
Week 45, 2013: ~24,000 (-40%) (49th week on market)
There was only one major drop with a -70% decline, and that was right after the holiday season. I don't think the Wii U will drop that severely in the period of one week. Rather, I predict -40% (~24,000) next week, and continued declines until Super Mario 3D World releases on November 21st.
However, I will concede that it is indeed possible for Wii U to decline by 70% (~12,000 next week), as it's done so once already. I just think it's unlikely.
I was thinking around 45k so it's below what I expected but still it's a solid jump from the numbers it was doing recently. With the holiday effect and taiko/Mario coming up it should keep doing well for the rest of the year
Vita went up slightly too...good stuff. I am really curious to see how well vitatv does. Wonder if sony is marketing it well in Japan
Vita went up slightly too...good stuff. I am really curious to see how well vitatv does. Wonder if sony is marketing it well in Japan
Sammy Samusu
Member
All those bundles are targeted at the casual audience, people are not rushing to buy Wii Party. I think Wii U will sell more than 20k next week.
Vita is on the verge of a comeback. It seems to have stabalized at 20-30k. Vita TV and God Eater should give it huge gains next week and increase it's baseline sales.
Wii U had an incredible increase this week. Too early to predict new baseline.
3DS dominating as usual. Pokemon is outselling Mobster Hunter as usual.
Wii U had an incredible increase this week. Too early to predict new baseline.
3DS dominating as usual. Pokemon is outselling Mobster Hunter as usual.
Aquamarine
Member
Not yet...I wonder if Nintendo is aiming for some sort of partial share buyback, though.
Well, there's DK in between.
I actually expected 50K to be honest. But after seeing that graph of the highest weeks, maybe I shouldn't have.
Nightstick11
Banned
Not that I agree with the other guy, but the irony of you posting this is too rich for my stomach. It's giving me gas.
Pseudo_Sam
Survives without air, food, or water
Nobody is saying they're actually going to get anywhere close to their projection. This kind of shit happens all the time, it's about sending a message of commitment to shareholders. Part stubborn bullishness, part mind games. Nintendo is not the first public company to pull this, nor will they be the last. Until they either miss their mark at the end of the projected period OR lower their sales forecast, the investors can't really do anything because they haven't technically failed yet. And why lower your forecast right before what could be a very strong holiday season? All that gives you is a bad headline.
