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[Zornica]

I would be surprised if Soul sacrifice even manages to outsell Person4 golden.

anyway, it's always amazing to see how a new hardware color can give a small sales boost.

Would be interessting to see them abuse that. Like for example bringing a new 3ds/vita version in a black and white colored box with a big question mark on it, randomly cotaining one of let's say 50 different colored models. have some rare colors and some super rare colors which you can only get in these sets and turn your hardwarebuy into a gamble. Gotta get them all!
I'd love that

 

[muu]

Wait, soul sacrifice is a march release? That's when Monster Hunter 4 is coming out.

This is about as good an idea as debuting your new FPS franchise just before CoD.

 

[Father_Brain]

Wait, soul sacrifice is a march release? That's when Monster Hunter 4 is coming out.

This is about as good an idea as debuting your new FPS franchise just before CoD.

I don't think it has a date more specific than "spring."

 

[DCharlie]

I didn't get to any shops this week so I don't know, but they were still taking pre-orders in my town last week.

I know I sound pessimistic but I do think the WiiU will do well here in the long run (MohHon, DQX, Mario), but right now it doesn't look like it's going to hit the ground running right out of the gate. I'm not sure why Nintendo is letting this happen. They don't seem to be even trying. Arrogance? Apathy? Knowing there will be heavy supply constraints? I just don't know.

RISEN FROM MY GRAVE!!!

Anyways, yeah - basically it's the same in TK. There's still no playable demo units but a couple of info screens going up that are showing rolling footage and stacks of the Hajimemashite Super Wii booklets - this thing :

Has this "DVD > VHS" style page where the Wii shot is taken from the worst tv ever running composite

I'm not quite sure about the whole document + "Super Wii" thing - whilst it has resonance with the NES -> Super NES and does a good job of outlining what the machine is the screen shot above still feels a little bit of an own goal and there was maybe better ways to show the difference in IQ -and- show what the machine could do over the Wii.

Preorders are available -everywhere- - the odd place is out of the Black Deluxe set, but hell - even the Monster Hunter set can be found. I'd managed to get one pretty later on.

To avoid trollycakes laters : i've personally cancelled my preorders for not gaming reasons, whilst i'd have teetered a bit i'd have still bought a Wii U regardless of any launch troubles but non-gaming reasons and an incoming lack of free time means i've cancelled.

But yeah - i'd find it hard to believe that the thing is going to struggle in Japan of all places, but it's almost like a silent launch. We're just over two weeks away and there's little buzz, little advertising (the Nintendo Yamanote Tv's started showing the odd bit but...), no demo booths... Perhaps Nintendo just want to avoid taking too much thunder away from the 3DS which , pretty much, is THE games system for Japan. Wii U can afford to have a slugglish year or so, it's not going to hurt Nintendo in any meaningful way i don't think. The only leftfield worry might be that the 3DS is more than good enough for most games and the Wii U won't get any traction.

But yeah - we'll see -

 

[MasterSheen]

Will 3DS increase next week? Seems like week 47 is when the holiday boosts starts appearing.

 

[DCharlie]

Will 3DS increase next week? Seems like week 47 is when the holiday boosts starts appearing.

stores are getting busier and busier right now - nice bonuses on selling old games, which i'm doing by the boat load!

i agree with you, AC cards sold well due to retail copy shortage, nSMB2 never had shortages afaik

anecdotal but when AC came out i happened to be listening to a bunch of middle aged women discussing the whole card download procedure after they walked into Yamada Denki to find the game was sold out there (as well as everywhere else). Was amazing to see that it was easy for Nintendo to break the idea through to it's userbase and the cards quickly sold out.

Interestingly - the card price is more expensive than the physical game price because it seems that places are -not- discounting the card. When people get AC stock, the price has been as low as 4080 but averaging around 4380 or so. So the 4800 yen card hasn't come down - though i guess it's still in the hands of the retailers to discount it (?). That said, the cards and the game still remain sold out - the odd place has some copies but it looks like they're going out the door as quick as they come in. Traders in Shinjuku did have a second hand copy at one point for 5,980 yen - quite the mark up.

The c

 

[Man God]

Animal Crossing is the best possible game to break people into digital downloads. It's the sort of game that you always want on you for quick spurts of gaming.

 

[Chris1964]

But yeah - i'd find it hard to believe that the thing is going to struggle in Japan of all places, but it's almost like a silent launch. We're just over two weeks away and there's little buzz, little advertising (the Nintendo Yamanote Tv's started showing the odd bit but...), no demo booths... Perhaps Nintendo just want to avoid taking too much thunder away from the 3DS which , pretty much, is THE games system for Japan. Wii U can afford to have a slugglish year or so, it's not going to hurt Nintendo in any meaningful way i don't think. The only leftfield worry might be that the 3DS is more than good enough for most games and the Wii U won't get any traction.

Wii U can't afford to have a sluggish year in Japan with these launch titles.

 

[DCharlie]

Wii U can't afford to have a sluggish year in Japan with these launch titles.

I think a lot of focus is being put on Monster Hunter - it's going to be a nice extra, but it's -not- a new Monster Hunter. DQX Beta again - is a nice extra.

So basically - it's down to Mario.

I can't help but keep going back to the 3DS as a better platform for this holiday in Japan and the games aren't going to offer enough. I can't see Nintendoland doing that well here as a standalone, non-pack in, at 5980 yen.

I'll be honest - i think the Wii U could struggle for a year here, but i can see it having no ill effect longterm. I expect PS4/X8 to run into brick walls here as well - and by that time the Wii U will be down in price even further and will likely to have more first party titles.

I can see a nintendo struggle but not a failure.

 

[Man God]

I can see MH doing 600k at most.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I can see MH doing 600k at most.

LTD?
That would be a good result imo, what with the small user-base.

 

[beril]

I think a lot of focus is being put on Monster Hunter - it's going to be a nice extra, but it's -not- a new Monster Hunter. DQX Beta again - is a nice extra.

So basically - it's down to Mario.

I can't help but keep going back to the 3DS as a better platform for this holiday in Japan and the games aren't going to offer enough. I can't see Nintendoland doing that well here as a standalone, non-pack in, at 5980 yen.

I'll be honest - i think the Wii U could struggle for a year here, but i can see it having no ill effect longterm. I expect PS4/X8 to run into brick walls here as well - and by that time the Wii U will be down in price even further and will likely to have more first party titles.

I can see a nintendo struggle but not a failure.

Even a console port of monster hunter should be bigger than what most consoles launches with. It's also the first MH with free online, that might be able to do something. I think DQX also could be bigger than a lot of people think. Yes it's a port, and it's an MMO and not a "proper" DQ. But because it's an MMO, people are still playing it, and a lot of them may want to upgrade.

 

[frankie_baby]

I can see MH doing 600k at most.

Its a HD port of a 3ds game on a system with no user base, capcpom would throw themselves the biggest party ever with mountains of cocaine and mountains of hookers if it sold that much, capcpom would probably be delighted with just 300k

 

[Taurus]

Vita won't be "saved" by a single game, it needs a catalogue. If Sony manages to do that the system will keep going, it´s just a matter of will. No console is "doomed" until is discontinued and there are no new games for it.

What? It doesn't work that way. When there's no demand for the device, shops and resellers won't order more units or games. Their shelf space gets replaced by products that actually sell. Sony doesn't have to discontinue it, resellers will do it before.

 

[ksamedi]

At this point, I think Nintendo's rather soft Japanese launch is because they are diverting all the available stock to Europe and the US.

 

[Erethian]

I can see MH doing 600k at most.

For a second here I thought you were referencing something until I realised this was a prediction for the HD version of MH3G.

 

[schuelma]

I would be interested to see how Nintendo advertised the Wii in 2006. It seems like they are often pretty low key in Japan.

 

[Acosta]

It's not just a matter of will. Sony isn't god.

It's not about being god. I am not saying they will succeed if the believe on it, but at the end it´s their platform, they must decide what to do with it and there are several decisions they can take, or not.

First, how much internal resources they allocate to produce software for it. This is a decision entirely up to Sony and it's a good meter of the "will" of them to keep it going or not.

Second, third parties, is up to them to convince partners to keep producing software for it. They have less control of this of course, but it´s their job trying at least and making deals to make it possible.

Third, logistics, marketing and business plan, that's up to Sony too.

So when I say "will" I'm saying that is up to Sony to evaluate the effort and investment to try to keep the platform in a healthy state, knowing there are no warranties of success.

If there is no will to try, well, I guess it would be discontinued and no new game would be produced for it but I don't think we are at that point yet. I have always believed that 2013 will be the year to evaluate the long term future of Vita. And that will depends of a catalogue, not a single game.

 

[beril]

Its a HD port of a 3ds game on a system with no user base, capcpom would throw themselves the biggest party ever with mountains of cocaine and mountains of hookers if it sold that much, capcpom would probably be delighted with just 300k

I think 200-300k is a decent bet considering MHP3rdHD, and that would still put it above any ps3 launch game, most PSP & 3DS launch games, all third party DS & Wii launch games, and above every vita and 360 game. It won't be massive, but for a launch game it'll be quite big

 

[Acosta]

What? It doesn't work that way. When there's no demand for the device, shops and resellers won't order more units or games. Their shelf space gets replaced by products that actually sell. Sony doesn't have to discontinue it, resellers will do it before.

So, do you think we are at this point? Are shops liquidating their Vita stock and removing it from the shelves?

 

[schuelma]

Perhaps Nintendo just want to avoid taking too much thunder away from the 3DS which , pretty much, is THE games system for Japan. Wii U can afford to have a slugglish year or so, it's not going to hurt Nintendo in any meaningful way i don't think. The only leftfield worry might be that the 3DS is more than good enough for most games and the Wii U won't get any traction.

But yeah - we'll see -

If they were trying to do a soft launch and keep attention on the 3DS, they would not launch with a 2D Mario and Monster Hunter. I have no doubt they want to sell a lot and get a head start on PS4.

 

[Road]

Time to put your GAF money where your mouth is...

Prediction League December 2012

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Nov 26 to Dec 30):

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (35d) -
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney (32d) -
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG (32d) -
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (25d) -
[PS3] Yakuza 5 (25d) -
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2 (18d) -
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election (11d) -
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (23d) -
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (23d) -
[WIU] Nintendo Land (23d) -
[WIU] Hardware (23d) -
[3DS] Hardware (35d) -



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: November, 28th 08:00 am (EST) (when Famitsu and Media Create first make their weekly sales public)

Attention:

• Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
• Multiplatform games are the combined available sales of each platform.

Rules:

• The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
• The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
• The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
• The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
• Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.
• Any item missing in your prediction will be considered as if you had predicted zero for its sales.

 

[Exterminieren]

No Mystery Dungeon?

 

[schuelma]

Just for a bit of perspective on launch sales in Japan when we start discussing how underwhelming the Wii U appears to be positioned- Vita did 325K its first week last December. Of course it dropped off a cliff soon after...

 

[grimshawish]

Just for a bit of perspective on launch sales in Japan when we start discussing how underwhelming the Wii U appears to be positioned- Vita did 325K its first week last December. Of course it dropped off a cliff soon after...

I suspect Nintendo will use MH/Mario to get the sales they need at launch; Europe/US need supply early December - not Japan.

Late December this will turn on its head. Promotion in Japan increases towards new year.

 

[BowieZ]

I think Nintendo's priority in Japan is to unequivocally destroy Vita.

And 3DS can do that more than WiiU can... because it's not just about encouraging people to buy a Nintendo system this Holiday (dissuading a Vita purchase), but rather to bolster the 3DS's stranglehold over Vita to an overwhelming extent - to in turn persuade third parties to develop more and more exclusively for 3DS, which, in turn, will tidily do the rest of the Vita killing.

When Vita's dead, 3DS can then rest on its laurels and then the healthy Wii U and 3DS ecosystem can go to battle against PS4.

 

[test_account]

Just for a bit of perspective on launch sales in Japan when we start discussing how underwhelming the Wii U appears to be positioned- Vita did 325K its first week last December. Of course it dropped off a cliff soon after...

Yep, we wont see the more steady WiiU sales pattern before in January next year.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

I can't help but keep going back to the 3DS as a better platform for this holiday in Japan and the games aren't going to offer enough. I can't see Nintendoland doing that well here as a standalone, non-pack in, at 5980 yen.

It's 4900 yen.

Off topic, but when factoring retailer discounts it's cheaper than in the US. Reggie is crazy trying to sell it for $60. Or maybe just a strategy to sell Deluxe bundles.

 

[vareon]

So the [WIU] prediction begins...

 

[beril]

I think Nintendo's priority in Japan is to unequivocally destroy Vita.

And 3DS can do that more than WiiU can... because it's not just about encouraging people to buy a Nintendo system this Holiday (dissuading a Vita purchase), but rather to bolster the 3DS's stranglehold over Vita to an overwhelming extent - to in turn persuade third parties to develop more and more exclusively for 3DS, which, in turn, will tidily do the rest of the Vita killing.

When Vita's dead, 3DS can then rest on its laurels and then the healthy Wii U and 3DS ecosystem can go to battle against PS4.

I don't really think they have much to gain from trying to steal the last few drops of life from the vita. They've won that battle already and how well the 3DS does in the future is entirely up to it's own merits. Building up the WiiU to replace the dying wii and prepareing to combat the next set of consoles should be a lot more important

 

[Oersted]

So, do you think we are at this point? Are shops liquidating their Vita stock and removing it from the shelves?

Yeah, that is happening.

 

[BowieZ]

I don't really think they have much to gain from trying to steal the last few drops of life from the vita. They've won that battle already and how well the 3DS does in the future is entirely up to it's own merits. Building up the WiiU to replace the dying wii and prepareing to combat the next set of consoles should be a lot more important

It doesn't take much to turn the tide in favour of Vita. Obviously 3DS will never be overtaken, but Sony has the power to revive the Vita, and put a major dent in 3DS's eventual LTD.

I don't think WiiU needs any real action until next year.

 

[grimshawish]

So, do you think we are at this point? Are shops liquidating their Vita stock and removing it from the shelves?

Colours sales boost suggests theres some confidence in keeping stock.
But I doubt its much. New Year sales will likely decide this thing.

Wii U needing shelf space and how popular that is out of the gate likely will too.
Vita won't be able to breathe in that market.

 

[beril]

It doesn't take much to turn the tide in favour of Vita. Obviously 3DS will never be overtaken, but Sony has the power to revive the Vita, and put a major dent in 3DS's eventual LTD.

I don't think WiiU needs any real action until next year.

They don't really. Maybe capcom does, but that's not happening

Maybe Nintendo has some ammunition in store to counter if sony actually does some attempt to revitalise the vita, but for now they can pretty much ignore it. They are in a great position with 3DS; it has a great lineup, an attractive price and some nice bundles. But actively going after Vita's last piece of marketshare just isn't worth it.

The WiiU needs action from day 1. They need to build up the install base to sell their games, and to prove to third parties that it's a viable platform, and they'll want to show investors an adoption rate rivaling that of the Wii or there will be an endless supply of nintendoomed articles.

 

[Gummb]

I remember reading somewhere that Tamagotchi Corner Shop 4 was launching for 3DS this holiday season in Japan... am I crazy?

If I'm not, don't those usually do well?

 

[king zell]

Call of Duty: Black Ops II

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/113071/

Minna no Golf 6

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/113065/

E.X. Troopers

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/113061/

New PS3 color + Bundle

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/113057/

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/113045/

 

[?oe?oe]

E.X. Troopers is going to be interesting to see. I have not idea how it will sell between the two systems.

 

[metalslimer]

Yep, we wont see the more steady WiiU sales pattern before in January next year.

Yes, but the post launch week sales will be extremely interesting assuming no stock issues. Vita collapsed in its 2nd week in the busiest shopping week of the year and continued into New Year.

 

[DCharlie]

Yeah, that is happening.

It's not though - the amount of real estate for japanese stores and vita is -increasing- and (even stranger) in a lot of stores PSP/Vita is moving towards the prime real estate in some stores


That's not to say i agree with it - it's absolutely NUTS but the idea that stores are en masse throwing the Vita under a bus is a fabrication at best and utter bullshit at worse REGARDLESS of the reality (and as a Vita fan it's utterly baffling ... )

but hey. Maybe in the US it's a universal truth but in Japan? it's not.

 

[Instro]

It's not though - the amount of real estate for japanese stores and vita is -increasing- and (even stranger) in a lot of stores PSP/Vita is moving towards the prime real estate in some stores


That's not to say i agree with it - it's absolutely NUTS but the idea that stores are en masse throwing the Vita under a bus is a fabrication at best and utter bullshit at worse REGARDLESS of the reality (and as a Vita fan it's utterly baffling ... )

but hey. Maybe in the US it's a universal truth but in Japan? it's not.

Trying to get rid of unsold stock?

 

[DCharlie]

It might well be the case - the 3DS sells itself , PSP does too - but the fact remains that dedicated realestate for PSV is there and is moving to prominent points in stores.

Again - this is NOT an argument for PSV revival more just a comment on the reality that the idea that stores in Japan are throwing PSV under a bus are false.

People are not buying it for various reasons - but retain promotion or visibility of units is NOT that reason.

 

[Canis lupus]

Why did Vita jump?

 

[NateDrake]

Why did Vita jump?

New colors.

 

[tiku]

Why did Vita jump?

Two new colours.

 

[Orgen]

Prediction League December 2012

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Nov 26 to Dec 30):

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (35d) - 697.000
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney (32d) - 304.000
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG (32d) - 332.000
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (25d) - 398.000
[PS3] Yakuza 5 (25d) - 445.000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2 (18d) - 241.000
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election (11d) - 199.000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (23d) - 423.000
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (23d) - 216.000
[WIU] Nintendo Land (23d) - 490.000
[WIU] Hardware (23d) - 652.000
[3DS] Hardware (35d) - 1.377.000

And yeah, no Mystery Dungeon?

 

[Kenka]

Prediction League December 2012

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Nov 26 to Dec 30):

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (35d) - 700'000
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney (32d) - 260'000
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG (32d) - 285'000
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (25d) - 315'000
[PS3] Yakuza 5 (25d) - 335'000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2 (18d) - 255'000
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election (11d) - 165'000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (23d) - 390'000
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (23d) - 205'000
[WIU] Nintendo Land (23d) - 415'000
[WIU] Hardware (23d) - 601'000
[3DS] Hardware (35d) - 1'250'000

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (35d) - 890,123
[3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney (32d) - 345,678
[PS3] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Taisen OG (32d) - 321,012
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (25d) - 432,101
[PS3] Yakuza 5 (25d) - 456,789
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2 (18d) - 234,567
[PSP+PSV] AKB1/149: Love Election (11d) - 210,123
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (23d) - 456,789
[WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (23d) - 345,678
[WIU] Nintendo Land (23d) - 432,101
[WIU] Hardware (23d) - 789,012
[3DS] Hardware (35d) - 1,234,567

 

[Erethian]

It might well be the case - the 3DS sells itself , PSP does too - but the fact remains that dedicated realestate for PSV is there and is moving to prominent points in stores.

Again - this is NOT an argument for PSV revival more just a comment on the reality that the idea that stores in Japan are throwing PSV under a bus are false.

People are not buying it for various reasons - but retain promotion or visibility of units is NOT that reason.

There was someone on here, might have been Vinnk, who'd noticed the opposite happening (Vita was being given less space/moved further back in the store), so it might vary between retailers and regions.

 

[hiska-kun]

E.X. Troopers is going to be interesting to see. I have not idea how it will sell between the two systems.

According to Azalyn's blog, 3DS > PS3.
Still low numbers.

Amazon.jp also shows 3DS > PS3

 

[Road]

No Mystery Dungeon?

And yeah, no Mystery Dungeon?

I was afraid there was too many stuff already.

I was not even going to put AKB149 (my plan was only things that probably sell over 200k), but I ended up including it so PSP and Vita could make their final holiday appearance.