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Media Create Sales: Week 5, 2012 (Jan 30 - Feb 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
It's not like we're winning or losing anything. I was thinking of posting COMGNET pts to compare so some people would have an idea, but I think that would help as much as it would get in the way.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
What's life without a little risk? I probably overshot Binary Domain though.
Speaking which, I see lots of pretty high SW3Z predictions given Musou's been bombing hard on PSP the past 2 years.
I think your BD prediction is way crazier, actually.
And, yeah, I don't think people saw my warning about the bottom 3 games in the list, one of which is Samurai Warriors.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
lol, caught me pre-edit. Yeah, I think I screwed myself on BD. I was thinking Yazuka + COD = profit, but it'll probably be the reverse.
For reference, released last year:
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 7 Special: 25,308.
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 7 Special: 25,308.
Binary Domain is tracking above Vanquish on COMGNET, but it's still way below the Yakuza games.
Mmh, if you want some Comgnet goodness, I'll post it. Just the titles we are interested in ( this week, and One Piece Musou and Tales of the Braves ), without Google Translate goodness
[PS3] Binary Domain - 92pt
[PS3] Vanquish - 39pt
[3DS] New Love Plus - 50pt
[NDS] Love Plus + - 64pt
[NDS] Love Plus - 21pt
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 35pt
[PSP] Tales of the Heroes: Twin Brave - 116pt
[PSP] Tales of Vs. - 278pt
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 310pt
[PS3] Hokuto no Ken Musou - 208pt
[PS3] Binary Domain - 92pt
[PS3] Vanquish - 39pt
[3DS] New Love Plus - 50pt
[NDS] Love Plus + - 64pt
[NDS] Love Plus - 21pt
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 35pt
[PSP] Tales of the Heroes: Twin Brave - 116pt
[PSP] Tales of Vs. - 278pt
[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 310pt
[PS3] Hokuto no Ken Musou - 208pt
Weskerlover
Member
Good for Resident Evil!
MonsterHunter 3G, Mario 3DS, and Mariokart 7 are doing great!
BomBa for SoulCaliber... Next week MC data will be interesting!
My noobie predictions:
[3DS] New Love Plus - 120.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 80.001
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9.561
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 3.654
MonsterHunter 3G, Mario 3DS, and Mariokart 7 are doing great!
BomBa for SoulCaliber... Next week MC data will be interesting!
My noobie predictions:
[3DS] New Love Plus - 120.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 80.001
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9.561
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 3.654
I probably seem like a real pain in the ass right now, but when I start getting into new stuff, I'm a dumb one. I need an explanation for these pt numbers. Let's say Love Plus, it's 64 percent up? If so, percent of what? If not, what's it about?
charlequin
Banned
Re: Kyokugen Dasshutsu, I'm interested to hear people's explanations for choosing to rank 3DS over Vita or vice versa.
Prediction League February 13 - 19
[3DS] New Love Plus - 118.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 127.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 81.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 24.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 13.000
No Tekken? I think it'll do better numbers than the last three ;D
@charlequin: Simply userbase (impossible for now to know if an ADV game caters more to 3DS users than Vita users or vice versa)
[3DS] New Love Plus - 118.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 127.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 81.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 24.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 13.000
No Tekken? I think it'll do better numbers than the last three ;D
And why did you mention Comgnet? fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!! haha
@charlequin: Simply userbase (impossible for now to know if an ADV game caters more to 3DS users than Vita users or vice versa)
Sammy Samusu
Member
What's the deal with Revelations on Amazon, it has been out of stock since forever, right?
Magicpaint
Member
Probably boils down to userbase difference, though I don't know if that matters with such a niche title.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I'm guessing higher on Vita due to less competition and the system alreedy got a Chunsoft ADV to warm up (although it bombed). 3DS being higher wouldn't surprise me at all either though.
electroplankton
Banned
Imo, 3DS > Vita.
Bigger installed base, 999 was on DS, on Amazon both versions are now outside Top100, but Vita version is really low (around 300th position) while I see sometimes the 3DS one around 60-70th, which probably means nothing but that's all I have.
Comgnet is a (relatively small) retail chain. 64pt literally means that there are 64 pre-orders of the game across their stores.I probably seem like a real pain in the ass right now, but when I start getting into new stuff, I'm a dumb one. I need an explanation for these pt numbers. Let's say Love Plus, it's 64 percent up? If so, percent of what? If not, what's it about?
The fairy tail that Sony used the magic stick and gave life back to PSP in Japan sounds good every time it's posted but it remains a fairy tail.
eBay Huckster
Member
Random crapshoot predictions past New Love + and Binary Domain.
[3DS] New Love Plus - 125,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 70,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 28,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 14,500
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 6,500 (difference entirely due to userbase)
[3DS] New Love Plus - 125,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 70,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 28,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 14,500
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 6,500 (difference entirely due to userbase)
Whoa, first post!!! Having waited around 7 months to be able to post (and missing the most interesting part of the year to discuss, to boot) makes it feel like an achievement to be able to post finally.
This week seems pretty slow, and SW is low overall, but we must recognize that RE:R is holding out nicely.
On another front, to what degree is Vita HW/SW failing?
In the HW department, it seems to be doing quite bad, with games giving it a minimal boost. Is the system considered a flop in sales-age? How bad(or not) is it?
If the Vita mantained this baseline one year from now -or let's be a bit more generous, stabilized at 20k- with the occassional spike when a more wide-appealing game is released... would it be considered a very unhealthy environment for the platform?
How much does the vita need to improve its performance to be called a healthy (not good, nor great) platform that can be sustained without sony bleeding money?
Speaking of SW, i notice a lot of the "bigger" or more "appealing" vita games have a high sellthrough. I would think this is actually quite nice, as shown with Ragnarok this week (and hopefully with Gravity Daze next), but then again the total first shipment for the game is usually quite low... so i don't know if we can call it good or not... maybe stable?
3DS seems to be doing fine, so it's not as fun to discuss about it for me, but i hope the good keeps on rolling
Mind that these are all enquiries, i hope they don't come across as me coming out and stating my doubts as facts. I just hope to have a good time and learn some things which would be helpful when discussing further.
This week seems pretty slow, and SW is low overall, but we must recognize that RE:R is holding out nicely.
On another front, to what degree is Vita HW/SW failing?
In the HW department, it seems to be doing quite bad, with games giving it a minimal boost. Is the system considered a flop in sales-age? How bad(or not) is it?
If the Vita mantained this baseline one year from now -or let's be a bit more generous, stabilized at 20k- with the occassional spike when a more wide-appealing game is released... would it be considered a very unhealthy environment for the platform?
How much does the vita need to improve its performance to be called a healthy (not good, nor great) platform that can be sustained without sony bleeding money?
Speaking of SW, i notice a lot of the "bigger" or more "appealing" vita games have a high sellthrough. I would think this is actually quite nice, as shown with Ragnarok this week (and hopefully with Gravity Daze next), but then again the total first shipment for the game is usually quite low... so i don't know if we can call it good or not... maybe stable?
3DS seems to be doing fine, so it's not as fun to discuss about it for me, but i hope the good keeps on rolling
Mind that these are all enquiries, i hope they don't come across as me coming out and stating my doubts as facts. I just hope to have a good time and learn some things which would be helpful when discussing further.
electroplankton
Banned
And Fairy Tail games sold pretty well on PSP, btw.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Decent first week, pretty awful after that. However, that first week makes enough difference that it's still well above where the bigger flops like GameCube and PS3 were a few months in.
Yeah. PSP had a similar slow first year, but it had only given DS a one week head start. What you're talking about here would be a diiistant situation like GameCube or PS3's first few years.
Hard to say, without knowing things like what the bleeding is like as is, game budgets, publisher expectations.
Welcome.
IMO, Vita can't spend the year stuck in the 15-20k range. Dipping to 20k per week in the slow periods of the year is fine for a system in the middle to late stages of its life, where it has already built up a nice userbase and a strong software ecosystem.
But if the Vita spends the majority of its first year hovering in that 15-20k range each week, that would be pretty horrible. Even with a 500k December coming up (which would be VERY generous if the system has been in the 15-20k range all year), that would still leave it with a userbase under 2 million after 2 holiday seasons on the market. If that's how this year plays out, then Vita is probably looking at PS3-type numbers as a best-case scenario over its life, and quite possibly even worse than PS3-type numbers. I can't imagine that's what Sony had in mind for Vita.
Sony will have to find something (price drop, massive release of new colors and bundles, break-out must-have piece of software) to boost sales as the year goes along (much as Nintendo had to do for 3DS). If Vita is really still below 2 million after its 2nd set of holidays, then yeah - I would pretty much be writing off any chance of it being a long-term successful platform.
Generally speaking (it obviously varies depending on the actual piece of software), first week sell-through of 70-85% means retailers got it just about right. They're not sitting on an abundance of stock, but there is still supply out there for people that want to buy the game. And in that case, that means retailers will likely order a similar quantity for the next game that seems to fall in line with that game that they just purchased. Anything north of 90% means retailers under-purchased.
But retailer orders have very little to do with whether the game is a success or not for the publisher. Retailers may only order 50k of a game, and sell through 80% first week. That doesn't mean it was a success for the publisher though. The publisher may have set the budget for the game with the expectation of selling 200k. So even though the first-week sell-through percentage was strong, the game could still fall well below what the publisher was expecting.
The first did but as many times happens when a game becomes a success and has supply problems because they underestimated its appeal, retailers order more for the sequel and eventually stay with unsold stock.
MasterSheen
Member
[3DS] New Love Plus - 117,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 66,000
[3DS] Theatryhthm Final Fantasy - 45,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 35,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9,000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 5,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 66,000
[3DS] Theatryhthm Final Fantasy - 45,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 35,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9,000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 5,000
Tekken isn't out until next week which means we won't see it's sales until the week after. I'm assuming the predictions are for games that came out this week.
It would probably be more useful to limit predictions to games expected to do 50K or more. With low-selling games, it is incredibly easy to overshoot by a small amount in absolute terms (e.g. 20K) but a huge amount in relative terms (e.g. +150%). Learned that in the NPD software prediction threads, so those started trying to focus just on games likely to make the Top 5/10 for the month (back when we could actually do them). With weekly predictions, predicting anything that's unlikely to even hit 50K is asking for really high relative misses.
My two cents, anyway.
[3DS] New Love Plus - 115K
No real idea on the others.
But will it sell more than 10k?
Kurosaki Ichigo also mentioned it, and it happened last time with Gundam. I wondered about making the ADV game a separate result even.
I don't know. haha
Gianni Merryman
Member
[3DS] New Love Plus - 230000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 70000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 80000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 23000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 70000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 80000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 23000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4000
Easily. =p
I really hope and believe they are buying Tekken, especially as this one seem to be easier to get into compared to the recent Tekken 6 and Tekken Tag Tournament 2 - and the Tekken scene badly needs new players and players who can compete with the hardcore.
Cygnus X-1
Member
My predictions:
[3DS] New Love Plus - 100.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 80.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 60.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 18.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 10.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4.000
[3DS] New Love Plus - 100.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 80.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 60.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 18.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 10.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4.000
Sammy Samusu
Member
Looks like Theathrythm is doing its thing. (yall should check Sinobi for more details, I don't know how to read in japanese)
It's not out yet.
Yeah, but if Google Translation isn't failing to me, Sinobi says the first shipment went sold out, and the second one will be in late February.
Yeah I see it. I had only read the top portion where he describes the game. Good to see that the demos worked well for SE. Hopefully others take note.
Data Elemental
Member
Predictions:
[3DS] New Love Plus - 125,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 65,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 18,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 13,000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 2,000
[3DS] New Love Plus - 125,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 65,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 18,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 13,000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 2,000
electroplankton
Banned
S-E already confirmed a Bravely Default demo will be released around April.
Yes, and more than 20k too...
..
.
I have no idea jajaja (I'm an optimist by nature) And I see what donny says so next time it'll be better if we only predict games than can sell more than 50k but now it's too late ;P
Wow, so when is the games release date?
Based on ratings on JP PSN (you have to buy a game to be able to rate it), Ragnarok Odyssey has sold at least 1,000+ copies on PSN, and Gravity Daze has sold at least 700+ copies on PSN.
Castor Krieg
Banned
Guys can you tell me how 3DS was selling after launch? I know of the massive price cut in July, but what were the numbers? Sub-20K before the good games started rolling in?
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Not sure if this has been pointed out already, but the PS2 has sold more in Japan than the Gamecube sold worldwide.