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[shinra-bansho]

I'm not putting words in anyone's mouth; this is a discussion that extends beyond this week's thread and trying to turn things into "relative successes" is a paraphrasing.

It baffles me that in a sales thread of all places, install base is almost always ignored, esp when it comes to WiiU.

If Tropical Freeze sells a million copies on an install base of 5 million it will be a much bigger success in relative terms to Returns selling six million on an install base of 95+ million.

I'm not trying to 'pre emptively excuse' anything lol. It's simple math that a game with 15 million potential customers has a much higher chance of outselling a game with 1.6 million customers.

Add to that the fact that 3DS is a sales phenomenon in Japan and WiiU is a complete failure unlike anything Nintendo have previously released.

Here is a future spoiler for the new MK, Smash, Zelda and Metroid. They will all sell far less than their previous entries because their previous entries were on a healthy console with a 12+ million install base in Japan.

You will probably bring up Twilight Princess but launch games are the exception to the rule as Knack is currently proving.

You previously stated that people ignored installed base. They don't as far as I can tell. People are perfectly aware of the impact of installed base; that doesn't preclude calling a spade a spade and a failure a failure.

If Donkey Kong sells poorly, and all signs are pointing to yes, it will still be a sales bomba in its own right regardless of that being in part due to the system its on being a terrible failure in terms of installed base. It will still be a massive collapse, etc. etc.

It will not be considered a success in comparison to a game that sells 5x more on 5x the installed base because, once again, software sales do not scale linearly with installed base.

 

[Mpl90]

Dengeki Playstation (it seems) announcements
Makai Ichiban Kan for Vita, for this year: http://gematsu.com/2014/02/compile-heart-announces-makai-ichiban-kan-ps-vita
Kamen Raider Battride Wars 2 for PS3, June 26th 2014: http://gematsu.com/2014/02/compile-heart-announces-makai-ichiban-kan-ps-vita

Gematsu reports them being DPS announcements, and that should be also because I suppose Famitsu will talk about the brand new Marvelous game for 3DS, which countdown ends tomorrow.

 

[metalslimer]

It will not be considered a success in comparison to a game that sells 5x more on 5x the installed base because, once again, software sales do not scale linearly with installed base.

I don't know how many times this can be said

Also by that insane logic of userbase determining success, NSMBU is now a bigger success than NSMBW. It's such an insane line of thought. It's also more successful than GTA5

 

[Darius]

I don't know how many times this can be said

Who exactly is saying it would be a success?

 

[sörine]

If 70% decline isn't a collapse what is it?

Fair enough, I'm just wondering where the line between collapse and decline is. Wii Fit seems like a pretty high bar and reflective of a general audience shift rather than being down to Wii U's failure itself. It's more like Brain-Age on 3DS.

Wii U declines/collapses mostly remind me of the early PS3 declines we saw last gen with major franchises like Winning Eleven, Musou, Ridge Racer, Virtua Fighter, GT, Everybody Golf and so on.

 

[L~A]

For those interested, here's the January 2014 edition of my 'Leg-o-meter' (to know how often games are charting in the Media Create Top 20, their average rank, etc...). Warning : all data is entered manually, so it's probably not 100% accurate. It's actually something I made for fun, and I thought I could share it with you all

If you're interested in the full chart, I can give you special access to the Google Doc file (only for sale-agers).

 

[heidern]

Add to that the fact that 3DS is a sales phenomenon in Japan and WiiU is a complete failure unlike anything Nintendo have previously released.

The Gamecube only sold 4M in Japan so the WiiU at 1.6M+ so far is at least comparable to that.

 

[Chris1964]

I don't know how many times this can be said

Also by that insane logic of userbase determining success, NSMBU is now a bigger success than NSMBW. It's such an insane line of thought. It's also more successful than GTA5

This poor logic of multipliers turns many disappointments and disasters into big hits

WWHD > OOT3D
Pikmin 3 > Pikmin 1/2
DKCTF > DKCR >>> DKCR3D - coming soon at a theater next to you.

Wii U is a software beast, now I see it.

 

[ZSaberLink]

EDIT: what world is it where SM3DW is anywhere near 600K. I don't think NSMBU for all it's "Nintendo legs" even reached that without bundling.

NSMBU hit 556K according to Famitsu without any bundling (take the famitsu NSMBU sales on 10/31 and subtract all NSMBU sales and you get that value). It probably would have eventually hit 600K without the bundling imo. Mario 3D World should eventually hit 600K. It seems to have slightly better legs than NSMBU right now and it's already at 515K (according to Famitsu), so that doesn't seem a huge stretch.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Wut. DK is at 19pt. 19.....pt. Wut. Holy shit its going to bomb so hard. I was thinking a 100k opening but this is beyond my comprehension.

 

[Sandfox]

I believe PS4 will perform similar to the 3DS, slow start, but not ultra bomba level like PSV and Wii U.

3DS used to be in "champion beast mode" back in the dark days, selling 25k weekly. I feel like PS4 could achieve about the same, maybe around 20k weekly.

I think that really depends on the SW because right there really doesn't seem to be much to keep the sales from tanking after launch for quite a while.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

This thread is serving Mario 3D World deja vu realness.

 

[Herb Alpert]

This thread is serving Mario 3D World deja vu realness.

Now Mario 3D world is almost at half a million but the consensus is that it bombed so hard OMG, am I right?

 

[michaelius]

This thread is serving Mario 3D World deja vu realness.

Next holiday boost is 10 months away.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Due to the heavy snowfall, Tsutaya says Pokémon Centers were empty last weekend.

http://mantan-web.jp/2014/02/11/20140210dog00m200044000c.html

No really, weather appears to have affected sales, but not by much.

Next week they expect DQM2 #1, DK #2 and Puyo #3.

 

[1st Course]

Did any site/blog post the Playstation Top 50 included with this week's Famitsu yet?

K found this while searching twitter:

http://blog.livedoor.jp/abacabu-abacabu/archives/36933795.html

PS3 top 5 as of Feb 6, 2014 (Famitsu issue 1314 release date):

1- XIII: 1.905.979
2- XIII-2: 906.394
3- RE6: 837.774
4- OP: 828.132
5- MGS4: 706.461

 

[Moor-Angol]

PS2
http://blog.livedoor.jp/abacabu-abacabu/archives/36933182.html


PS1
http://blog.livedoor.jp/abacabu-abacabu/archives/36932490.html

 

[SmokyDave]

Were there any notable Vita releases last week?

2013 Week 6 - 8.762
2012 Week 6- 13.939 (Gravity Rush release week)

I want to see 16k tomorrow, at least.

 

[Chris1964]

Where are they shipping these copies? Asia?

Because if we believe Famitsu, there are now more than 400k unsold copies at retail.

If we believe Famitsu estimated shipment from them is nowhere close to the reported from Capcom.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Were there any notable Vita releases last week?

2013 Week 6 - 8.762
2012 Week 6- 13.939 (Gravity Rush release week)

I want to see 16k tomorrow, at least.

Three new releases in the Tsutaya Top 20, but nothing notable. It will probably stay flat for another week.

 

[Spiegel]

If we believe Famitsu estimated shipment from them is nowhere close to the reported from Capcom.

Do we have more precise shipment data?

80-100% gives a range of 3.3M - 4.2M

 

[antibolo]

Now Mario 3D world is almost at half a million but the consensus is that it bombed so hard OMG, am I right?

It's definitely one of the most successful Wii U games but that's not saying much.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

This thread is serving Mario 3D World deja vu realness.

Mario had the holidays and wasn't at 19pt on comgnet the week before its release right?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Mario had the holidays and wasn't at 19pt on comgnet the week before its release right?

Well Wind Waker HD was at 56 pts on comgnet before its release. Mario 3D World was at 55 pts. You saw how that translated to first week sales. Certain games (like Pikmin 3 for example) will be preordered. Some could be just bought by the masses. I'm not saying DKC is necessarily going to light up the charts, but I have a feeling it's being underrepresented by the comgnet numbers. At least that's my hope =P.

 

[Principate]

Any ideas on MH4 2013 Digital numbers?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Any ideas on MH4 2013 Digital numbers?

MH4 sold at least 278K digitally in 2013 (we have data for Sept, Oct, & Dec, but not November) according to what I posted earlier on page 8.

 

[Mpl90]

Well Wind Waker HD was at 56 pts on comgnet before its release. Mario 3D World was at 55 pts. You saw how that translated to first week sales. Certain games (like Pikmin 3 for example) will be preordered. Some could be just bought by the masses. I'm not saying DKC is necessarily going to light up the charts, but I have a feeling it's being underrepresented by the comgnet numbers. At least that's my hope =P.

Uh? Zelda never entered Comgnet preorder charts.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Uh? Zelda never entered Comgnet preorder charts.

Wait really? Then were those the sales then? I looked at one of the older media create threads for that.


Hm... so at least DKC: TF has more hype than WWHD... that's a slight relief.

 

[Nirolak]

So after about 2-3 weeks:

1.) Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light is still the #2 top grossing game on the Japanese iOS store.

2.) Level 5's Wonder Flick has come out and is #23.

 

[hongcha]

Were there any notable Vita releases last week?

2013 Week 6 - 8.762
2012 Week 6- 13.939 (Gravity Rush release week)

I want to see 16k tomorrow, at least.

Super Heroine Chronicle (also on PS3)! I got it the other day and it's a pretty good SRPG. Should keep the Vita over 20k.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Well Wind Waker HD was at 56 pts on comgnet before its release. Mario 3D World was at 55 pts. You saw how that translated to first week sales. Certain games (like Pikmin 3 for example) will be preordered. Some could be just bought by the masses. I'm not saying DKC is necessarily going to light up the charts, but I have a feeling it's being underrepresented by the comgnet numbers. At least that's my hope =P.

LoZ opened at 30k. Mario opened at 100k iirc.

 

[Mpl90]

So after about 2-3 weeks:

1.) Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light is still the #2 top grossing game on the Japanese iOS store.

2.) Level 5's Wonder Flick has come out and is #23.

It seems Square found how to make big money with DQ on mobile, then.
...With free to play, of course!

This and the low DQ8 result, I suppose, heavily support Horii's idea of how to use mobile: not with console titles "forced" to be mobile, but with different titles, made for mobile. And FTP.

Spoiler

It's a little sad that, currently, you can make money on mobile with some remakes or with ftp, at least IMHO.

 

[Chris1964]

Do we have more precise shipment data?

80-100% gives a range of 3.3M - 4.2M

3,45

 

[AmanoBuff]

So after about 2-3 weeks:

1.) Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light is still the #2 top grossing game on the Japanese iOS store.

2.) Level 5's Wonder Flick has come out and is #23.

Do you know how is DQVIII doing?

 

[Chris1964]

We'll have big laughs next weeks if some look at 3D World and expect similar legs from Tropical Freeze after its low opening.

 

[Spiegel]

3,45

I see: Thanks Chris.

 

[Nirolak]

Do you know how is DQVIII doing?

I'm using this for Japan top grossing: http://www.apptiled.com/index.php/iphone-ipad/app-store/iphone-top-grossing-apps

We had this about DQVIII during the holidays: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=746698&highlight=

Looking at the current top paid, it's #19 with FFVI at #2: http://www.apptiled.com/index.php/iphone-ipad/app-store/iphone-top-paid-apps

 

[Nirolak]

All right, I got the full chart for DQVIII.

Dragon Quest Monsters Super Light seems to have been pushing it back up by brand association.

 

[Foshy]

We'll have big laughs next weeks if some look at 3D World and expect similar legs from Tropical Freeze after its low opening.

You know, I wouldn't be too surprised if DK actually opened higher than Mario. Won't have even half the legs though of course.

 

[Chris1964]

You know, I wouldn't be too surprised if DK actually opened higher than Mario. Won't have even half the legs though of course.

The only Mario it will beat is this

38./00. [WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2013.12.05} (¥5.985)

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You know, I wouldn't be too surprised if DK actually opened higher than Mario. Won't have even half the legs though of course.

This thread is serving Mario 3D World deja vu realness.

Bookmarked.

 

[AmanoBuff]

All right, I got the full chart for DQVIII.

Dragon Quest Monsters Super Light seems to have been pushing it back up by brand association.

Thanks for the chart and for the links above. Looks like its doing decently, but perhaps bot as well as one would expect from this title. Still, I don't think SQEX spent much in this port, so it should still be profitable.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

SE are fucking stupid for not throwing DQ 8 on PS3/Vita, it would have been a multi million seller and it could have been a full price game. I hate that company.

 

[Foshy]

Bookmarked.

Hey now, I'm not saying it'll happen for sure. Just consider that Pikmin 3 opened at 100k just like 3D World, too.

There's no holiday boost that will stop it falling from the cliff after week one, but it's the only moderately sized release for a while and Wii U owners will have to buy something.

 

[Tripon]

SE are fucking stupid for not throwing DQ 8 on PS3/Vita, it would have been a multi million seller and it could have been a full price game. I hate that company.

No it wouldn't. DQ 7 only sold around 1.17 million and that's on a much popular platform.

Edit: Edited DQ7 sales numbers.

 

[Principate]

SE are fucking stupid for not throwing DQ 8 on PS3/Vita, it would have been a multi million seller and it could have been a full price game. I hate that company.

Eh doesn't the PS3 only have 1 million seller and the Vita obviously none. There's a reasonably chance but that track record doesn't really help.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

No it wouldn't. DQ 7 only sold around 1.5 million and that's on a much popular platform.

Eh doesn't the PS3 only have 1 million seller and the Vita obviously none.

should have mentioned world wide, my bad but yeah, they would have made more money off of a full fledge 60$ console release imo.

 

[AmanoBuff]

should have mentioned world wide, my bad but yeah, they would have made more money off of a full fledge 60$ console release imo.

I kind of agree. FFX/X-2 already surpassed 500k in Japan combining both platforms, so I'm pretty sure DQVIII would exceed that number (in Japan at least). Then if we also count other territories I think the game could easily surpass the 1.2M - 1.4M mark.

And don't forget, the iOS port of DQVIII was developed using Unity, which also supports PS3, PS4 and even Vita as well since just a few weeks ago. So in theory the game could also be ported to PS consoles with relative ease.

Spoiler

But we all know that's only wishful thinking. SQEX will never do it.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

DQM2 sold out on Yodobashi and Amazon (new shipment on Feb 16).

Titan is about to sell out on Yodobashi and it's sold out on Amazon (new shipment on Feb 16). I don't understand why they take so long to restock this game.

Bookmarked.

Now, don't make me cry.

 

[metalslimer]

At this point Nintendo seems done with Dragon Quest, so I'm not even going to get excited that one of the series does well.