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Because he is stating it like it's a fact and not an opinion / prediction.

It cannot be anything but a opinion/prediction, no matter how its stated or how right he thinks he is.

Spock is jumping the gun but Chris's assumption that Wii U's situation hasn't changed is disingenuous at the very least. His assumption that Wii U won't sell any different from last year is based on Wii U's market situation being the same, however between the "killer app" marketing, desire of hardware outside of launch and the lower price and bundle. Wii U's situation has changed, he might be right but his reasoning is flawed so speaking in absolutes is a bit arrogant imo.

I agree that the Wii U will do better than what Chris predicted.

Had he predicted higher Wii U numbers, do you think he would have received the same sarcastic crystal ball comment? Probably not, as there already is a poster in Spock who is also making all sorts of assumptions and is not getting the same reply in return.

Surely it is "okay" to predict differently than some and not be treated as a lunatic with a crystal ball/DeLorean car/Aladdins magical lamp

 

[Anth0ny]

Seeing as NSMBU is bundled, I wouldn't bet on it

Yup, forgot Japan also had that bundle

Nonetheless, keep selling SM3DW!

 

[Apophis2036]

Finally you gave a prediction. Bad thing is the next software drought has already began and it will be worse than last year with basically first party releases only.

Did you ask me for a prediction ?, if so I must have missed it sorry.

I don't see a software drought at all until after MK8 in June. Wii Fit U in Jan, DKC Tropical Freeze in Feb and MK8 in March or April (I would guess March so it's hardware bump shows up on the end of year financial results).

 

[Oregano]

Depends on the game, Digimon World Reigitize sold slightly over 150k but Digimon Adventure sold 70k afterwards. (and the 3DS re-release of Re-digitize didn't really sell that well...). I'm not sure what kind of branding the new vita is going for that I doubt it'll even get close to 150k anyway...

I'm not nearly as confident in Dancing's ability to sell as you are... I really have no idea about Persona Q either...

As for Bravely Default, the original was well received, the enhanced re-release has beaten their expectations, unless they fuck something up I'm pretty sure Second will sell on par or better than the original.

I didn't know the drop from Reigitize was that big, I may have overestimated it by quite a bit there.

I'd personally say 150K is a safe bet for both Persona games but Dancing will definitely do better than Q,

For the Sequel did really well and it seems they are set up for Second to at least match Default but I really don't feel comfortable saying it will definitely match it.

 

[BriBri]

Still awaiting that dwarfing list.

 

[Takao]

Thinking about PS4's Japanese launch... Does anyone know how long it took WIiU to reach 1 million LTD in Japan ?. I think it's going to come out the gate very, very strong indeed just like everywhere else in the World, I would guess 1 million inside a month if they have enough stock.

Also looking at current sales trends and things like AC, CoD and GTA selling well in Japan the PS4 launch line up might do better than a lot of people initially thought. Aren't the Japanese also eagerly awaiting Watch_Dogs aswell ?.

1 million unit race:

3DS - 13 weeks
PSV - 42 weeks
Wii U - 33 weeks

I don't see a software drought

Based on your PS4 predictions that might be because you haven't opened your eyes.

 

[Hellraider]

I'd personally say 150K is a safe bet for both Persona games but Dancing will definitely do better than Q

I am expecting Persona Q to do your typical Etrian Odyssey numbers plus a bit more because of the Persona brand. Something like 200k sounds about right. Still, I wouldnt bet my life on it since I am not sure how the SMT fanbase that the 3DS has will react to the game.

P4D I believe will sell slightly better than that but not by much. I am not expecting it to crack 300k but anything over 200k seems plausible.

 

[Meier]

A bit disappointed that the 3DS didn't see a greater bump. I believe the price is still higher than the NDS ever was in its entire history though so there's that.

 

[Busaiku]

3DS costs the same as DS.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Still awaiting that dwarfing list.

He couldn't find more than seven.

 

[Tempy]

Great numbers for WiiU, but I really hope publishers are going to start releasing more games for it.

 

[Apophis2036]

1 million unit race:

3DS - 13 weeks
PSV - 42 weeks
Wii U - 33 weeks



Based on your PS4 predictions that might be because you haven't opened your eyes.

Thanks for the info but is there really a need to be rude ?...

I don't see how three big name first party titles and a big selling Japanese franchise (Monster Hunter Frontier G) in the first four months of the year is a 'drought'. The WiiU software drought will start the month after MK8 when there is nothing planned until Autumn when we will start to see the likes of Bayo 2, Zelda, Smash and X arrive.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

In Japan, I think since end October, when Wii Party U launched.
I think its the game that is keeping the numbers on average higher than what they
were before.

There was a bundle released at regular price which bumped the numbers from 2k to 38k, then to 17K->14K. Then Mario brought it from 14K back to 20K. And then it was holiday weeks time.

 

[Plinko]

I still can't believe how many people on GAF said Vita TV would "save" the Vita. It seems to be an outright disaster.

 

[Oregano]

Still awaiting that dwarfing list.

Well I don't own a Vita(and have no intention of doing so) so I'll either have to just go off the top of my top of look 'em up but I can think of:

Atelier Ayesha
Super Robot Taizen?
Digimon Story
Sword Art Online
Deception
Samurai Warriors 4?
Persona 4 Dancing All Night
Phantasy Star Nova
Monster Hunter Frontier G

I think that list is easily comparable to the 3DS list, if not better.

 

[Busaiku]

Monster Hunter Frontier G isn't a big selling game.
In fact, it's already out on Wii U and sold less than 5k during its debut week.
The Memorial Package or whatever is just gonna be a special edition or something that won't have any impact.

Nobody wants that garbage.

 

[jblank83]

Sales numbers? On Christmas morning?!

I'M SO HAPPY! ^______________^

 

[Oersted]

Thanks for the info but is there really a need to be rude ?...

I don't see how three big name first party titles and a big selling Japanese franchise (Monster Hunter Frontier G) in the first four months of the year is a 'drought'. The WiiU software drought will start the month after MK8 when there is nothing planned until Autumn when we will start to see the likes of Bayo 2, Zelda, Smash and X arrive.

Cough^^

 

[Exile20]

I still can't believe how many people on GAF said Vita TV would "save" the Vita. It seems to be an outright disaster.

I can't believe it went down during xmas. Unbelievable.

Everything went up this week. Even the 360.

 

[watershed]

The Vita TV hold from last week to this week is kind of funny to me. Otherwise this week is just more Nintendo domination but overall lower numbers than last year.

 

[BriBri]

Well I don't own a Vita(and have no intention of doing so) so I'll either have to just go off the top of my top of look 'em up but I can think of:

Atelier Ayesha
Super Robot Taizen?
Digimon Story
Sword Art Online
Deception
Samurai Warriors 4?
Persona 4 Dancing All Night
Phantasy Star Nova
Monster Hunter Frontier G

I think that list is easily comparable to the 3DS list, if not better.

 

[Aquamarine]

It would be pretty amazing if WiiU sold half a million consoles in December and Jan combined, you wouldn't be able to wipe the smile off Iwata's face after the year it's had.

Ehh...the disturbing reality about the Wii U is its shockingly-poor overseas performance.

Wii U has been trending around GameCube sales in Japan for a while now...it's overseas where the console has been significantly underperforming relative to it.

For example (USA sales), while the Wii U only managed ~222,700 consoles from November 3rd through November 30th, the GameCube sold ~468,000 consoles in an equivalent time period. That's more than twice as much.

Given the fact that Nintendo makes the majority of its revenue overseas, the Wii U's performance in Japan is less relevant to Nintendo if we don't see equivalent gains all around the world...and so far, we haven't.

Still, it is pleasant news for Wii U to have its first >100K week since launch.

 

[Steel]

I can't believe it went down during xmas. Unbelievable.

Everything went up this week. Even the 360.

To be fair, it went from dead... To 2 less people buying it dead. Still it boosts vita sales slightly, so there's that.

 

[Busaiku]

Wasn't Wii U doing DC numbers prior to December here as well?

 

[spock]

It cannot be anything but a opinion/prediction, no matter how its stated or how right he thinks he is.



I agree that the Wii U will do better than what Chris predicted.

Had he predicted higher Wii U numbers, do you think he would have received the same sarcastic crystal ball comment? Probably not, as there already is a poster in Spock who is also making all sorts of assumptions and is not getting the same reply in return.

Surely it is "okay" to predict differently than some and not be treated as a lunatic with a crystal ball/DeLorean car/Aladdins magical lamp

Just to be clear in my posts I am pointing out that it is just my opinion, but i am also giving some reasoning as to why i feel the situation has changed. I'm not just saying the wiiu will do better just "because"...

Sure the last years numbers and trends should be considered but the wiiu it self is not in the same position. As for the fact there is lack of 3rd party software, while that is true that doesnt make the current and expanding library of exclusive Nintendo titles irrelevant non factors. Nintendo first party titles are the primary movers of Nintendo consoles to begin with.

Also, if you notice I'm pretty clear that I'm not saying the wiiu is going to crush it and start dominating, all I'm saying is I think the evidence, anecdotal information & general consumer sentiment along with the change in sales trends the pas couple months point to a shift. yes its the holiday season and a bump is to be expected but the bump seems to be stronger then expected it seems to be deeper then just a holiday bump, especially considering the downtrend the wiiu is coming out of.

Either way I look forward to future threads over the next few months regardless if I'm wrong or right. Its not a contest to me just a fun situation to analyze , discuss and guesstimate about,

 

[Kurtofan]

Merry Nintendo Christmas everyone!

 

[AzaK]

WIU | 109.113

Rise, this is the beginning.

Nooooooo. I really don't want them to garner success after such an abysmal console in both hardware and software. Them becoming successful on a first party box will cement their arcane business practices even more. Grrrrr.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Crazy bump. Allow me to subscribe to the thought of this bump being small overall and not sustainable at all. Same goes for Vita.

 

[Exile20]

To be fair, it went from dead... To 2 less people buying it dead.

And the 360? lol

 

[rpmurphy]

I still can't believe how many people on GAF said Vita TV would "save" the Vita. It seems to be an outright disaster.

I didn't believe them then. It never seemed like it could be a strong seller considering the Vita itself is a much more attractive console for the market. It is more for the other regions (and I think Sony said something to that extent recently).

 

[Nirolak]

GameCube, 2001:
Week 49, 52,806
Week 50, 100,882
Week 51, 168,268
Week 52, 130,719

GameCube, 2002:
Week 49, 39,849
Week 50, 44,902
Week 51, 66,410
Week 52, 60,290

GameCube, 2003:
Week 49, 38,264
Week 50, 55,962
Week 51, 128,502
Week 52, 168,766

Wii U, 2012:
Week 49, 308,570
Week 50, 130,653
Week 51, 122,356
Week 52, 76,760

Wii U, 2013:
Week 49, 46,773
Week 50, 72,982
Week 51, 119,159

Was the GameCube supply constrained in 2003 or did something else happen for it to go up in week 52 (like a 53 week year)?

 

[dampflokfreund]

Nooooooo. I really don't want them to garner success after such an abysmal console in both hardware and software. Them becoming successful on a first party box will cement their arcane business practices even more. Grrrrr.

Dont worry, its only the christmas boost.

 

[Yoshi]

so my 2014 Media Create prediction

Wii U LTD to pass XBOX 360 LTD in a month

PS4 LTD to pass Wii U LTD in 2 weeks

Assuming Wii U is selling at least 50k more units until PS4 releases, you're predicting PS4 to sell 1.5 million units in 2 weeks? I'm not saying that's completely impossible, but it's really a lofty goal. Besides PS2 has any console done this ever before?

 

[Oregano]

I'm not sure whether you're surprised at me not owning a Vita, me listing that many games or me thinking that it's a comparable list to the 3DS one.

 

[Steel]

And the 360? lol

The 360 had a ~50% sales boost!

 

[spock]

Ehh...the more disturbing reality about the Wii U is its shockingly-poor overseas performance.

Wii U has been trending around GameCube sales in Japan for a while now...it's overseas where the console has been significantly underperforming relative to it.

For example (USA sales), while the Wii U only managed ~222,700 consoles from November 4th through November 30th, the GameCube sold ~468,000 consoles in an equivalent time period. That's more than twice as much.

Given the fact that Nintendo makes the majority of its revenue overseas, the Wii U's performance in Japan is less relevant to Nintendo if we don't see equivalent gains all around the world...and so far, we haven't.

Still, it is pleasant news for Wii U to have its first >100K week since launch.

Thing about the gamecube comparison in nov/dec is that the wiiu was feeling heat from the ps4/x1 launch. I more interested to see the actual numbers come feb-april. Personally I think we will see good numbers (relative to past months) for the wiiu here in the USA, and again will see the baseline shift on the positive side in jan 2014 going forward. Pretty much the gist of what I am and have been saying is that the worst days of the wiiu are over. Not saying its going to do amazing or anything its just finally broken the death slump in my opinion.

 

[Exile20]

Nooooooo. I really don't want them to garner success after such an abysmal console in both hardware and software. Them becoming successful on a first party box will cement their arcane business practices even more. Grrrrr.

What business practices? I believe the account system is a technical issue and there is the region free issue.

What else?

Not paying for online
Love their attitude to DLC
Lots of sales on the app store
etc

 

[Chocolate & Vanilla]

WiiU Cratchett. It's a Christmas miracle.

 

[BlackJace]

What business practices? I believe the account system is a technical issue and there is the region free issue.

What else?

Not paying for online
Love their attitude to DLC
Lots of sales on the app store
etc

The guy's avatar is the Wii U on a tombstone. It says it all.

 

[Nirolak]

Nooooooo. I really don't want them to garner success after such an abysmal console in both hardware and software. Them becoming successful on a first party box will cement their arcane business practices even more. Grrrrr.

While a very healthy rise, even the GameCube went higher most years, so I wouldn't jam the generation long celebration and/or panic button yet.

 

[Nirolak]

The guy's avatar is the Wii U on a tombstone. It says it all.

AzaK was arguably one of the most ardent Wii U fans early on.

He's just taken the dragonsworn/farnham route in recent months.

 

[Moze]

What business practices? I believe the account system is a technical issue and there is the region free issue.

What else?

Not paying for online
Love their attitude to DLC
Lots of sales on the app store
etc

Was going to say this. Nintendo are the best publisher around and deserve all the success they can get. Sony has been trying to manufacture Nintendo's image for quite some time, but has pretty much failed due to their shitty practices.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Well I don't own a Vita(and have no intention of doing so) so I'll either have to just go off the top of my top of look 'em up but I can think of:

Atelier Ayesha
Super Robot Taizen?
Digimon Story
Sword Art Online
Deception
Samurai Warriors 4?
Persona 4 Dancing All Night
Phantasy Star Nova
Monster Hunter Frontier G

I think that list is easily comparable to the 3DS list, if not better.

You can't be serious.
Are you? At least put Final Fantasy X/X-2 in there to make it more believable.

Real Monster Hunter
Paper Mario/Mario & Luigi
Pokemon
Dragon Quest
Puzzle and Dragons
Shin Megami Tensei
...etc.

I still can't believe how many people on GAF said Vita TV would "save" the Vita. It seems to be an outright disaster.

Go back to MC Thread week #46 fo Vita TV's launch week: some serious lolz in there, dozens of people and the hailing those mediocre numbers as "pretty goddamn good!" "Wow great!" "Vita da champion" and so on sales. I was attacked left and right that week for doubting the hardware and thinking that was anything but a successful launch. Even its awful week #47 numbers were being spin as being positive.

Thanks for the info but is there really a need to be rude ?...

I don't see how three big name first party titles and a big selling Japanese franchise (Monster Hunter Frontier G) in the first four months of the year is a 'drought'. The WiiU software drought will start the month after MK8 when there is nothing planned until Autumn when we will start to see the likes of Bayo 2, Zelda, Smash and X arrive.

You should inform yourself better. Wii U having a drought as well doesn't make the Vita's situation any better, there's no point in comparing the two other than giving fodder to console warriors crapping on sales threads.

 

[BriBri]

I'm not sure whether you're surprised at me not owning a Vita, me listing that many games or me thinking that it's a comparable list to the 3DS one.

You assume it's an either/or, and that the list is of many games?!

 

[Nibel]

AzaK was arguably one of the most ardent Wii U fans early on.

He's just taken the dragonsworn/farnham route in recent months.

That's a pretty fitting way to put it :lol

 

[Busaiku]

You can't be serious.
Are you? At least put Final Fantasy X/X-2 in there to make it more believable.

Real Monster Hunter
Paper Mario/Mario & Luigi
Pokemon
Dragon Quest
Puzzle and Dragons
Shin Megami Tensei
...etc.

People are comparing lists of announced titles since September or so.

 

[BlackJace]

AzaK was arguably one of the most ardent Wii U fans early on.

He's just taken the dragonsworn/farnham route in recent months.

I don't get it though, how strongly attached are you that you devolve into making such silly posts? I'm not happy that the system is in shitsville either, but damn.

Anyways, I believe dropping the 2DS should make hardware pick up the pace. Pretty crazy how the software is moving like crazy, when the hardware is down.

 

[Lexxism]

Why is 3DS down YoY by like 600-700k? Here I thought with Pokemon and Monster Hunter it was on its way to its peak year.

Animal Crossing New Leaf. That game practically gave 3DS a big bump every week. Try checking the thread of week 45 2012 up to week 54 and you will see how big animal crossing is to 3DS hardware sales.

 

[Mpl90]

AzaK was arguably one of the most ardent Wii U fans early on.

He's just taken the dragonsworn/farnham route in recent months.

2011: farnham
2012: Dragonsworn
2013: AzaK

There's always the Nintendo fan that, for any kind of reason, becomes most ardent and...let's say it, stupid and obnoxious Nintendo antagonist with 1/2 good arguments among an ocean of silly posts. I don't know why that happens, it's almost a scientific fact now. But, what's more interesting...who's going to be the next one?

 

[jeremy1456]

I'm not sure whether you're surprised at me not owning a Vita, me listing that many games or me thinking that it's a comparable list to the 3DS one.

It's not comparable.

AND you listed Monster Hunter Frontier G which shows you were digging from the bottom of the barrel.