You guys really expect PS4 to drive VITA adoption rate in Japan eh? Otherwise, where would the sudden growth come from?
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Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2013 (Dec 23 - Dec 29)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
You guys really expect PS4 to drive VITA adoption rate in Japan eh? Otherwise, where would the sudden growth come from?
Zoe
Member
Huh, I always thought that version was lost.
metalslimer
Member
leatherhat
Member
Stuff like Dragon ball Z: battle of Z ( though this isn't doing that well in preorders) and disgaea 4 (which is doing fine for the series).
No, I expect it to come from a stronger software lineup.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah those are both low profile; neither of which will break 100k and in dragonball's case might not break 50k.
That software has to make up for Vita having its first major pricecut and revision last year and then add more along side that. Like Chris said Vita will not average almost 40k this year
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I doubt there was ever a chance of a large increase (or decrease really for that matter).
Even the PS3 which is pretty much a best case scenario for the Vita never sold more than 2 million in a calendar year. Around this ball park is most probably where the Vita will remain until it's decline.
Wii U has a stronger software lineup than Vita this year, maybe it'll sell 2 millions too.
Sorry, hit the reply button a little while back and didn't refresh. That said, while I do agree that the PS4 won't be a good thing for the Vita, I don't feel that it's guaranteed that it will immediately sell well to anyone but the tech-head launch crowd. If it doesn't, it shouldn't be too big a problem for the Vita. It'll decline for certain though.
leatherhat
Member
I never said they weren't. And breaking 50k in Feb when in 2013 some of vita's biggest games where barely over 100k is an improvement. Plus the most important part is that titles like Disgaea help vita avoid weeks of no game releases.
WiiU has strong individual titles but many big gaps in its release schedule. I do expect it to do better this year though.
Actually I just saw the new Comg preorder numbers and Infinite Stratos in Feb just got a big bump. I don't know anything about that series though so I don't really know what to expect from it.
metalslimer
Member
It can't just be an improvement. It has to provide a huge boost to have a shot a coming anywhere close to 2 million. Vita doesn't have anywhere near that kind of support.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Your logic is sound but the Vita this year had a price drop this year which would presumably inflate numbers by 200k+. For a normal system that would not be too hard to compensate, but for the Vita I think it is and so we will likely see a decline next year.
Though we have zero idea of its lineup later in the year. Whether thats a good or bad thing.......
Oh he's talking about 2 million.....errr yeah thats not going to happen.
leatherhat
Member
2 million is my absolute most optimistic goal if vita can get some large holiday titles lined up. 500K+ type of titles.
PSP didn't rise because of DS decline. It was more like DS declined because of PSP rise.
I don't see third parties abandoning 3DS in favor of Vita, not with mobile this time.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Like I said before keep in mind the best calendar year of the PS3 never sold 2 million copies. The Vita has a huge wall to climb to beat that threshold. That includes years that had million sellers.
leatherhat
Member
Consoles have a much tougher row to hoe in Japan (ps4 is gonna struggle mightily after launch), and 2 million is an optimistic long shot, not an expectation. I should note that I do expect a vita price cut towards the holidays since some people are saying they don't think games will offset 2013's cut.
I decided to pop in here and noticed the iOS sales age talk so:
Regarding Mpl90's numbers, I think DQVIII's sales on iOS must be higher, because while it is currently the 33rd top grossing app that's because it's a while since release, but it actually managed to be the second top paying app on release, with only Puzzle and Dragons beating it (nobody can beat P&D)
iPhone
iPad
vs Android chart
Regarding Mpl90's numbers, I think DQVIII's sales on iOS must be higher, because while it is currently the 33rd top grossing app that's because it's a while since release, but it actually managed to be the second top paying app on release, with only Puzzle and Dragons beating it (nobody can beat P&D)
iPhone
iPad
vs Android chart
Zoe
Member
Like the source code and the assets.
I didn't realize it came out before since it gets overshadowed by all the DS version ports. But since it's just running the Famicon executable, they don't need to change anything in the source.
Third-party core games never really sold well on the DS, the PSP just proved it could hence why it got so much support. We could be seeing the same thing now, and itll help ease the process to HD development.
And I dont think the DS declined, it simply reached saturation.
Aquamarine
Member
GBA (2001) - 4,200,311
GBA (2002) - 3,366,723
GBA (2003) - 3,613,259
GBA (2004) - 2,574,987
GBA (2005) - 1,255,011
GBA (2006) - 433,336
GBA (2007) - 74,089
PS2 (2000) - 3,748,200
PS2 (2001) - 3,603,700
PS2 (2002) - 3,652,800
PS2 (2003) - 2,812,514
PS2 (2004) - 2,750,776
PS2 (2005) - 2,134,863
PS2 (2006) - 1,547,866
PS2 (2007) - 816,419
PS2 (2008) - 480,664
PS2 (2009) - 256,131
PS2 (2010) - ~90,000
GC (2001) - 925,924
GC (2002) - 1,034,484
GC (2003) - 1,039,687
GC (2004) - 608,163
GC (2005) - 305,000
GC (2006) - 89,775
Care to explain? I wasn't following sales at the time, so perhaps I'm just unfamiliar with what happened.
I don't think third parties will abandon the 3DS in favour of the Vita, either, there hasn't been much DS->PSV / PSP->3DS shift aside from Monster Hunter. Rather, I think the 3DS has a risk of an independent decline due to the system's own situation.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Issue is the third party core (top sellers) that didn't do well on DS but did well on PSP (e.g MH) ar, and a few others) are doing well on the 3DS, plus there's mobile to satiate any that aren't (psp had no competitor on that respect), so I'm not really sure that comparison holds water.
I decided to pop in here and noticed the iOS sales age talk so:
Regarding Mpl90's numbers, I think DQVIII's sales on iOS must be higher, because while it is currently the 33rd top grossing app that's because it's a while since release, but it actually managed to be the second top paying app on release, with only Puzzle and Dragons beating it (nobody can beat P&D)
iPhone
iPad
vs Android chart
Is Android that irrelevant in Japan? Because it's around the top grossing according to that graph, but we know the android range 10k-50k.
So unless Android is completely worthless gross wise I can't see how ios sale would make it a success.
I decided to pop in here and noticed the iOS sales age talk so:
Regarding Mpl90's numbers, I think DQVIII's sales on iOS must be higher, because while it is currently the 33rd top grossing app that's because it's a while since release, but it actually managed to be the second top paying app on release, with only Puzzle and Dragons beating it (nobody can beat P&D)
iPhone
iPad
vs Android chart
Thanks for the graphs!
Yeah, it had a big debut in the top grossing. Having a 2,800 Yen price surely helped in that. Still, given how it trended starting from the second week on iPhones, declining fast till the 10th position, with a little resurgeance and then going deep down, and also given the datas from Aquamarine, showing the different sales between iPhone, iPad and Android, I'm still with my 100,000 units estimate. Better: 90,000 - 110,000. We must remember it's a 2,800 Yen app, after all, and in a top grossing chart that's relevant.
metalslimer
Member
wat
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Ah yeah I knew there was something horribly wrong that statement, the DS had some 30 odd million sellers so third parties loved it, the issue was that smaller third party software sales slowed down during the end of DS lifespan. So the midrange games eventually just became more popular on the psp, spearheaded by MH.
bigmit3737
Member
Did the Vita sell a million this year?
I'm hoping Vita can get 1.5 million for 2014.
I'm hoping Vita can get 1.5 million for 2014.
MasterSheen
Member
Yes, as shown in the OP under YTD.
I wonder if we'll see more hunting games on 3DS now.
God Eater 2 did alright, but I imagine Namco had bigger expectations (a lot of people here did, including myself).
With Monster Hunter the only real entry of the genre, it's still hard to say either way.
This is what could keep it more relevant than DS in its latter years.
God Eater 2 did alright, but I imagine Namco had bigger expectations (a lot of people here did, including myself).
With Monster Hunter the only real entry of the genre, it's still hard to say either way.
This is what could keep it more relevant than DS in its latter years.
metalslimer
Member
You can check what a system has sold year to date in the op usually.
Nintendo should be pushing for those PSP versions of hunting games to turn into 3DS versions. I don't think they will want to split the hunting base between platforms though. In retrospect, a lot of us made fun of Sony for getting all the MH clones, but it's pretty much the one thing keeping the 3DS back. I'm pretty sure if the Vita didn't do what it did ;ast year the 3DS would have easily beat it's 2012.
Aquamarine
Member
And in that comprehensive comparison I made!
Principate
Saint Titanfall
TBF I'm not sure the 3DS will last that long (before a successor is introduced), the wii u sales and the 3DS worldwide sales not being that good seemingly so fair. I imagine Nintendo will be planning there next hardware generation sooner rather than later.
Considering how DQVIII sold between 5,000 - 10,000 units on Android during its first 26-28 hours, we can estimate that being around 20th in the Top Grossing Overall Android chart means grossing between 14,000,000 and 28,000,000 Yen. I don't know if Android /Google takes a cut on games, though.
Right, but if Nintendo can secure 3rd party developers to make those kinds of core games, that's what could help keep it afloat in places like Japan and possibly the US longer than their other platforms.
Sony's platforms stay relevant well after their successors because they manage to get that core market on there to keep it up, but Nintendo's systems usually drop the year the new hardware comes along.
metalslimer
Member
I still think the 3DS successor is announced in 2015 for a 2016 release. If the Wii U was rolling I'm sure Nintendo would be fine with an earlier release, but it's their money make going forward for the next few years. The fact 100-200 smartphones are popping up now with actually decent specs is going to increase the amount of kids that get exposed to smartphones now and I think NIntendo should be looking into how they plan on staying relevant as I don' t think a DS sequel will go over so well
To be fair I think the PSP would have died much faster if Vita has BC. I think it's not a bad thing at all that Nintendo's handhelds dry up soon after release because it allows for a very quick transition. 3DS took over immediately. Now of course this was negated by Nintendo selling at a loss.
frankie_baby
Member
They take about 30% I think
Yes, essentially all downloadable storefronts take 30% these days (PC download, console vendors, and phones).
bigmit3737
Member
Ahh, thanks guys.
Then I'm hoping for 1.8 million for the Vita.
If God Eater 2 goes to 3DS, that won't bode well for the Vita.
Then I'm hoping for 1.8 million for the Vita.
If God Eater 2 goes to 3DS, that won't bode well for the Vita.
You think Namco had bigger expectations than matching the sales of the first game? Because it most likely will do that.
Every game you like on Vita will come to the 3DS. Believe!
metalslimer
Member
As long as the development was across two platforms? Maybe. I'm sure they are satisfied even if they probably expected a bit more.
It's a valid question, don't do this.
What is this nonsense, no one has quoted this post and congratulated the winners with a GIF or something? Let me start.
This is really sad...hopefully their next consoles are better, but I don't see another Sony handheld being made, and am uncertain about the future of Nintendo home consoles.
CrimsonCrescendo
Banned
Whoa, wait a minute. SE only get 30%? If so, that's worse than their cut of console games.
No, Apple/Google get 30%.
I'm not saying it's doing poorly, however it's on PSP and Vita (and has cross-platform play), expanding the audience was probably what they had in mind.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Yeah which why I don't think they cut the generation short like anywhere near the advance or something I just think they very weary of outlasting their stay.
Either way your right Nintendo needs niche developers for both their systems, it's the thing they severely lack for console elongation, and just in general dedicated buying power.
in Japan right now they're in the best position to get it if they are willing to spend the money because the difference in sales in niche developers on the 3DS and Vita isn't that large .It would help the wii u but the wii u has much more systemic problems worldwide much like the Vita.
Ultimately there's a massive gray spot on what sony will do after this handheld generation, if they leave the dedicated sector (the likely and logical scenario) these developers will go to either Nintendo's or most probably smartphones. The fact they haven't left yet meant it's in Nintendo's best interest to court them as fast as possible.
It's only logical for follower titles to come out when the market leader is on the platform. Do you really think hardware limitations were the only reason MH-likes came out in droves for the PSP? It's no different from trying to slip a shooter into the hands of CoD-playing dudebros who usually only play CoD, but are hankering for something in-between the yearly release.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
No they lose 30% much it's still a worse cut as far as we know but It's easy money
KungFucius
King Snowflake
I don't get this. 3Ds already sold a significant amount so the market that would buy one for the newer games is smaller than it was a year ago. You could also argue that knowledge of upcoming games sold 3ds systems last year.
Moor-Angol
Banned
FFXTP
FFX
Shin Gundam Musou
Magical Madoka
all sold-out on amazon.jp, next could be Zelda ALBW
also seems like Spike finally restocked Attack of Titans
tomorrow numbers might be interesting
FFX
Shin Gundam Musou
Magical Madoka
all sold-out on amazon.jp, next could be Zelda ALBW
also seems like Spike finally restocked Attack of Titans
tomorrow numbers might be interesting
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Ignoring the current handheld scenario, do you think Sony will release another dedicated handheld device after the Vita? I personally don't, I think they'll make a Sony android based tablet that plays Sony branded games.. Where do you think The vita only supports goes when that happens. Most probably scenario is mobiles. I personally would not want that considering the f2p trend currently occurring in that market, so as a fan of dedicated handhelds I'd rather they at least have as many as possible move on to the next Nintendo hardware, to keep dedicated handheld market going.