I'd use the Witcher and its legs as a reference point, with a higher population baseline to help move up the FW sales. That said, I don't know if you should expect Witcher-like legs, Horizon has positive reviews but its no Witcher 3.
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I'd use the Witcher and its legs as a reference point, with a higher population baseline to help move up the FW sales. That said, I don't know if you should expect Witcher-like legs, Horizon has positive reviews but its no Witcher 3.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Oh, I was just saying that number would more likely be a LTD type number. Just in terms of managing expectations (he was saying 150K would be FW)). I wasn't suggesting that it would hit that number.
Oh I am not suggesting that either, I am saying to use W3 as a baseline to extrapolate from but be wary of extrapolating on the legs too.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Ah, gotcha.
Edge_Maverick
Member
Yeah, but he also said it was just a dream, something like that
True, just making sure I wasn't imagining it.
No, DQX4.0 got the summer-fall time slot (if everything smooth, and it seem so) since last year.
DQXI release window still blowing in the wind.
I assume they want the May 2017 because golden week and 30th deadline, but delay hammer can happen all the time especially with they doing all 3 version together
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Any thoughts on Hideo Baba leaving Bandai Namco/Tales and jumping to Square Enix and forming a new team there?
DQXI release window still blowing in the wind.
I assume they want the May 2017 because golden week and 30th deadline, but delay hammer can happen all the time especially with they doing all 3 version together
May 2017? The target right mow must be not missing 2017 FY release.
I don't think that will make any bigger splash on the market than I am Setsuna.
You know, trying to guess initial shipments for Switch games, based on what the blog shared, sounds fun, so let's give it a try. Warning: wall of text incoming.
The hypotesis behind the numbers
The numbers
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 70%
[NSW] 1-2-Switch - 10%
[NSW] Bomberman R - 20%
Wall
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 20%
[NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes 1-2 - 20%
[NSW] PuyoPuyo Tetris - 10%
[NSW] Disgaea 5 - 10%
Wall
[NSW] I am Setsuna - 0%
[NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition - 0%
The guesses for first shipments with explanations
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 340,000
First of all, it's often said that the Zelda franchise has lost sales potential in the region, and while there's truth in this claim, the most recent handheld entries (aside from Triforce Heroes, which was a spin-off) had pretty good debuts (source: Famitsu)
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} - 182.998 / 600.839
[WII] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo) {2011.11.23} - 194.894 / 346.802
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD (Nintendo) {2013.09.26} - 31.154 / 45.741
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} - 225.418 / 417.874
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds [Nintendo eShop] {DL} (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} - 28.577
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D (Nintendo) {2015.02.14} - 236.536 / 236.536
Also, this upcoming entry is a major change in the formula of the franchise, especially compared to the past few years episodes, and with huge anticipation behind it. It's also the biggest core-centric Switch launch game, so it's going to have a high tie-ratio.
Other factor to consider: going by what Shinobi posted, Nintendo Switch's first shipment has increased, and now it's "far more than what he expected". Looking at Wii, 3DS and Wii U launches, and considering the initial worldwide shipment forecast for the first month (2 millions), we can assume that 300,000 units was the former initial shipment, but the sudden increase brought it up to possibly 400,000, which would fit the "far more" scenario.
In the initial scenario, a high tie ratio for Zelda (>/= 50% of hardware sales) would've translated into 150,000 copies sold at least, probably a bit more, in the 170,000-180,000 range , thus a first shipment around 340,000 copies would've been a decent guess: launch games tend to have legs, Nintendo games can be characterised by legs on their own. Also, 50% is not a bad first week sell-through for a launch game. However, as we can see from what the blog posted, things are probably going much better than whatever Nintendo's internal initial expectations showed, with 70% of Zelda's first shipment already pre-ordered. So, 238,000 copies out of 340,000: it also fits with what's going on on Comgnet, with 252 preorder points as of today, even when you factor Comgnet's special Switch clause (if you preorder Switch over there, you must preorder one between Zelda and 1 2 Switch alongside it), especially if you consider the on-going trend of falling preorder points/thousands of units sold ratios. It's possible the amount of copies available at launch has increased, but I'll stay with 340,000 for now.
1 2 Switch - 340,000
It seems like an extremely bold guess, but it would explain the extremely small pre-orders/first shipment ratio: this is the second most pre-ordered Switch launch game on Amazon, changing positions with Bomberman just in the first few days since preorder's opening. It's also by far the second highest Switch game on Comgnet at 119pt. Again, its amount of points is surely higher than what it would be in normal conditions given what said earlier; however, its performance on both Comgnet and Amazon could've suggested a higher number of preorders. One of the possibilities is that 1 2 Switch has a bigger initial shipment than Zelda, but the blog uses to list games from the biggest to the smallest initial shipment, so we should exclude that. The other option is that 1 2 Switch's first shipment is quite bigger than 320,000, but that would translate into a far bigger initial shipment for Zelda as well, and I don't feel extremely confortable in estimating a 400,000 initial shipment for Link's latest adventure...unless, just like hardware, software saw increased shipments as well. However, I feel it's a risky hypotesis, so I'll stay with the aforementioned estimates.
Super Bomberman R - 160,000
While on Comgnet it's behind Dragon Quest Heroes I-II, on Amazon.co.jp it has always been way ahead, and the post from the blog goes well with what I've been suspecting for a while, i.e. SBR is going to have a preorder points / thousands of sales ratio quite smaller than DQ, due to the kind of game and the price. Also, given how Comgnet has the special Zelda / 1 2 Switch clause, it wouldn't surprise me that the other launch games have a lower ratio by default because users tend to preorder them less than at other retailers. Also, its chart rankings on Amazon have been quite respectable, so 32,000 preorders so far sound right
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Wii U) - 100,000
It will sell far less than the Switch version, and Wii U is dead (see how Paper Mario: Color Splash did, especially given the series' standards), but it's also a pretty hyped Zelda overall, so I can see sales "better" than what people would expect from the last Nintendo release on a dead home console, but still far lower than Skyward Sword / Twilight Princess. A 50,000 - 60,000 first week debut would fit well in this context, and that shipment would be adequate.
Dragon Quest Heroes I-II for Nintendo Switch - 95,000
On Amazon, usually far lower than Bomberman, on Comgnet slightly higher. What said for SBR could explain the discrepancy. Still, again, the specific Comgnet condition could translate in a lower preorders/sales ratio than usual, so around 20,000 preorders for now could be a decent guess. Thus, around 100,000 first shipment given the 20% ratio (slightly lower IMHO).
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 70,000
Low pre-order ratio, quite low (for now) on Amazon.co.jp, but it's a long seller, and a kind of game that can gain the most from pre-orders to actual sales. Still, we shouldn't expect too much: it's a late port at launch of a long-seller, but it could benefit from the nature of the platform (Famitsu).
02./00. [3DS] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 42.096 / NEW <40-60%>
12./00. [PS3] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 11.863 / NEW <40-60%>
13./00. [PSV] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 9.739 / NEW <40-60%>
21./00. [WIU] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 5.232 / NEW <20-40%>
Disgaea 5 Complete - 60,000
The original sold around 23,000 copies in its first week, this is a port at launch with all the content (base game + DLC) in it. While a debut around the original (considering how the original had far smaller sales than other entries in the series) would be the best outcome, it's highly improbable at this point.
[PS3] Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice {2008.1.31} - 56,441
[PSV] Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention {2011.12.17} - 21,848
[PS3] Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten {2011.2.24} - 77,449
[PSV] Disgaea 4: A Promise Revisited {2014.1.30} - 29,904
Going by Famitsu numbers, the portable version of D3 had a first week debut that is 38.7% of the original's, while D4: A Promise Revisited did 38.61%. A bit less than 40% is the "retention rate" between original games and handheld versions for the last two entries; I can see a 50-55% retention rate between Disgaea 5 and Disgaea 5 Complete due to the far lower first week of the original, which goes well with a 60,000 first shipment
I am Setsuna and Nobunaga's Ambition - ?
Frankly, I don't have enough ideas for them. Extremely low in Amazon charts, two late ports (the latter is an extremely late port), I can only assume shipments for both titles will top 30,000 - 35,000 copies at best (probably much lower for Nobunaga).
And done. Way too many words, I know. Sorry.
The hypotesis behind the numbers
The numbers
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 70%
[NSW] 1-2-Switch - 10%
[NSW] Bomberman R - 20%
Wall
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 20%
[NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes 1-2 - 20%
[NSW] PuyoPuyo Tetris - 10%
[NSW] Disgaea 5 - 10%
Wall
[NSW] I am Setsuna - 0%
[NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition - 0%
The guesses for first shipments with explanations
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 340,000
First of all, it's often said that the Zelda franchise has lost sales potential in the region, and while there's truth in this claim, the most recent handheld entries (aside from Triforce Heroes, which was a spin-off) had pretty good debuts (source: Famitsu)
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} - 182.998 / 600.839
[WII] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo) {2011.11.23} - 194.894 / 346.802
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD (Nintendo) {2013.09.26} - 31.154 / 45.741
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} - 225.418 / 417.874
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds [Nintendo eShop] {DL} (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} - 28.577
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D (Nintendo) {2015.02.14} - 236.536 / 236.536
Also, this upcoming entry is a major change in the formula of the franchise, especially compared to the past few years episodes, and with huge anticipation behind it. It's also the biggest core-centric Switch launch game, so it's going to have a high tie-ratio.
Other factor to consider: going by what Shinobi posted, Nintendo Switch's first shipment has increased, and now it's "far more than what he expected". Looking at Wii, 3DS and Wii U launches, and considering the initial worldwide shipment forecast for the first month (2 millions), we can assume that 300,000 units was the former initial shipment, but the sudden increase brought it up to possibly 400,000, which would fit the "far more" scenario.
In the initial scenario, a high tie ratio for Zelda (>/= 50% of hardware sales) would've translated into 150,000 copies sold at least, probably a bit more, in the 170,000-180,000 range , thus a first shipment around 340,000 copies would've been a decent guess: launch games tend to have legs, Nintendo games can be characterised by legs on their own. Also, 50% is not a bad first week sell-through for a launch game. However, as we can see from what the blog posted, things are probably going much better than whatever Nintendo's internal initial expectations showed, with 70% of Zelda's first shipment already pre-ordered. So, 238,000 copies out of 340,000: it also fits with what's going on on Comgnet, with 252 preorder points as of today, even when you factor Comgnet's special Switch clause (if you preorder Switch over there, you must preorder one between Zelda and 1 2 Switch alongside it), especially if you consider the on-going trend of falling preorder points/thousands of units sold ratios. It's possible the amount of copies available at launch has increased, but I'll stay with 340,000 for now.
1 2 Switch - 340,000
It seems like an extremely bold guess, but it would explain the extremely small pre-orders/first shipment ratio: this is the second most pre-ordered Switch launch game on Amazon, changing positions with Bomberman just in the first few days since preorder's opening. It's also by far the second highest Switch game on Comgnet at 119pt. Again, its amount of points is surely higher than what it would be in normal conditions given what said earlier; however, its performance on both Comgnet and Amazon could've suggested a higher number of preorders. One of the possibilities is that 1 2 Switch has a bigger initial shipment than Zelda, but the blog uses to list games from the biggest to the smallest initial shipment, so we should exclude that. The other option is that 1 2 Switch's first shipment is quite bigger than 320,000, but that would translate into a far bigger initial shipment for Zelda as well, and I don't feel extremely confortable in estimating a 400,000 initial shipment for Link's latest adventure...unless, just like hardware, software saw increased shipments as well. However, I feel it's a risky hypotesis, so I'll stay with the aforementioned estimates.
Super Bomberman R - 160,000
While on Comgnet it's behind Dragon Quest Heroes I-II, on Amazon.co.jp it has always been way ahead, and the post from the blog goes well with what I've been suspecting for a while, i.e. SBR is going to have a preorder points / thousands of sales ratio quite smaller than DQ, due to the kind of game and the price. Also, given how Comgnet has the special Zelda / 1 2 Switch clause, it wouldn't surprise me that the other launch games have a lower ratio by default because users tend to preorder them less than at other retailers. Also, its chart rankings on Amazon have been quite respectable, so 32,000 preorders so far sound right
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Wii U) - 100,000
It will sell far less than the Switch version, and Wii U is dead (see how Paper Mario: Color Splash did, especially given the series' standards), but it's also a pretty hyped Zelda overall, so I can see sales "better" than what people would expect from the last Nintendo release on a dead home console, but still far lower than Skyward Sword / Twilight Princess. A 50,000 - 60,000 first week debut would fit well in this context, and that shipment would be adequate.
Dragon Quest Heroes I-II for Nintendo Switch - 95,000
On Amazon, usually far lower than Bomberman, on Comgnet slightly higher. What said for SBR could explain the discrepancy. Still, again, the specific Comgnet condition could translate in a lower preorders/sales ratio than usual, so around 20,000 preorders for now could be a decent guess. Thus, around 100,000 first shipment given the 20% ratio (slightly lower IMHO).
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 70,000
Low pre-order ratio, quite low (for now) on Amazon.co.jp, but it's a long seller, and a kind of game that can gain the most from pre-orders to actual sales. Still, we shouldn't expect too much: it's a late port at launch of a long-seller, but it could benefit from the nature of the platform (Famitsu).
02./00. [3DS] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 42.096 / NEW <40-60%>
12./00. [PS3] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 11.863 / NEW <40-60%>
13./00. [PSV] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 9.739 / NEW <40-60%>
21./00. [WIU] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) {2014.02.06} (¥5.229) - 5.232 / NEW <20-40%>
Disgaea 5 Complete - 60,000
The original sold around 23,000 copies in its first week, this is a port at launch with all the content (base game + DLC) in it. While a debut around the original (considering how the original had far smaller sales than other entries in the series) would be the best outcome, it's highly improbable at this point.
[PS3] Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice {2008.1.31} - 56,441
[PSV] Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention {2011.12.17} - 21,848
[PS3] Disgaea 4: A Promise Unforgotten {2011.2.24} - 77,449
[PSV] Disgaea 4: A Promise Revisited {2014.1.30} - 29,904
Going by Famitsu numbers, the portable version of D3 had a first week debut that is 38.7% of the original's, while D4: A Promise Revisited did 38.61%. A bit less than 40% is the "retention rate" between original games and handheld versions for the last two entries; I can see a 50-55% retention rate between Disgaea 5 and Disgaea 5 Complete due to the far lower first week of the original, which goes well with a 60,000 first shipment
I am Setsuna and Nobunaga's Ambition - ?
Frankly, I don't have enough ideas for them. Extremely low in Amazon charts, two late ports (the latter is an extremely late port), I can only assume shipments for both titles will top 30,000 - 35,000 copies at best (probably much lower for Nobunaga).
And done. Way too many words, I know. Sorry.
How high are the odds that the blog is going to post soon the initial shipments and they're going to be far different than what I expected? I'm so going to be owned in the next few hours, am I?
That makes sense. I hope developers don't have to go through signing a publisher just to get their games released on Switch in Japan.
Nintendo eShop Sales: Week 7, 2017 (Feb. 13 - Feb. 20)
Nintendo 3DS
(N) 01. Monster Hunter XX (Capcom) [18.3.2017]
(-1) 02. Dragon Quest Monsters Joker 3 Professional (Square-Enix) [09.2.2017]
(=) 03. Farewell, BoxBoy! (Nintendo) [02.2.2017]
(+1) 04. The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
(+2) 05. Pokémon Yellow Version: Special Pikachu Edition (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]
(N) 06. Dragon Sinker (Kemco) [15.2.2017]
(N) 07. Subara City (Flyhigh Works) [15.2.2017]
(+1) 08. Pokémon Red Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]
(-7) 09. Final Fantasy (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [21.1.2015]
(B) 10. Parascientific Escape: Cruise in the Distant Seas (Intense) [09.7.2014] (was on sale that week)
Wii U
(=) 01. Final Fantasy V Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [20.4.2016]
(=) 02. Final Fantasy VI Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [22.12.2015]
(B) 03. Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [02.9.2015]
(+6) 04. Fire Emblem (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [14.5.2014]
(B) 05. Minecraft: Wii U Edition (Microsoft) [17.12.2015]
(B) 06. Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [06.8.2014]
(-4) 07. Final Fantasy I & II Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [06.1.2016]
(-3) 08. Final Fantasy IV Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [13.4.2016]
(-3) 09. Final Fantasy VI (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [26.6.2013]
(B) 10. Plantera (Rainy Frog) [01.2.2017]
https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7e2dafbc-f3f1-11e6-9aaf-063b7ac45a6d.html
Digital pre-orders for MHXX began that week (+ demo released on same day), and Final Fantasy sale ended.
Nintendo 3DS
(N) 01. Monster Hunter XX (Capcom) [18.3.2017]
(-1) 02. Dragon Quest Monsters Joker 3 Professional (Square-Enix) [09.2.2017]
(=) 03. Farewell, BoxBoy! (Nintendo) [02.2.2017]
(+1) 04. The Battle Cats POP (Ponos) [31.5.2015]
(+2) 05. Pokémon Yellow Version: Special Pikachu Edition (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]
(N) 06. Dragon Sinker (Kemco) [15.2.2017]
(N) 07. Subara City (Flyhigh Works) [15.2.2017]
(+1) 08. Pokémon Red Version (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [27.2.2016]
(-7) 09. Final Fantasy (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [21.1.2015]
(B) 10. Parascientific Escape: Cruise in the Distant Seas (Intense) [09.7.2014] (was on sale that week)
Wii U
(=) 01. Final Fantasy V Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [20.4.2016]
(=) 02. Final Fantasy VI Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [22.12.2015]
(B) 03. Fire Emblem: The Binding Blade (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [02.9.2015]
(+6) 04. Fire Emblem (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [14.5.2014]
(B) 05. Minecraft: Wii U Edition (Microsoft) [17.12.2015]
(B) 06. Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones (Nintendo, Virtual Console) [06.8.2014]
(-4) 07. Final Fantasy I & II Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [06.1.2016]
(-3) 08. Final Fantasy IV Advance (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [13.4.2016]
(-3) 09. Final Fantasy VI (Square-Enix, Virtual Console) [26.6.2013]
(B) 10. Plantera (Rainy Frog) [01.2.2017]
https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7e2dafbc-f3f1-11e6-9aaf-063b7ac45a6d.html
Digital pre-orders for MHXX began that week (+ demo released on same day), and Final Fantasy sale ended.
Welp.This number is going to be absolutely pathetic huh.O_O Switch can't come soon enough lol.
It's a set of 2, so 25k x 2 = 50k?
And the double-digit is most definitely Wii U. It IS officially discontinued (and further confirms both MC and Famitsu will stop tracking it when Switch is out).
Kresnik258
Member
A few pages ago we were discussing why no-one should expect Disgaea 5 Switch to sell as well as 3/4 on Vita because 5 sold worse on PS4 and NIS have never built a fanbase on Nintendo and and and etc.
Your expectation is for them to have a FW shipment that's just slightly below the LT sales of those games (minus budget re-releases?)
That seems... optimistic.
No, this is the hint for the name of the game. The hint for the sales number is another one, very easy to guess. It's 25k without a doubt, no need for multiplications.
But not sure which game is refering to, with these budha statues. It's similar to Nioh, that's what I thought.
One is the one to be two digit. The dog (wan-wan) sold two digits 99, he said.
Kresnik258
Member
I wouldn't have thought Kamaitachi would be anywhere close to 25k, so it's Digimon.
Oh, I just assumed it was that since we know that Nioh performed better than expected, and so 25k was too low (unless retailers expected it to do a Wonderful 101).
kuroneko0509
Member
that ~25k is definitely for nioh. don't think the hint refers to digimon
edit: I probably wrong. forgot that nioh performed better than expected. still dun get how nioh statue = digimon
Nioh had still stock problems this week, that would explain the drop to 25k.
Oh damn, forgot it came out during Week 6 *facepalm*
Yeah, definitely that, then. That would put it at 100k, not bad.
kuroneko0509
Member
25k is a 65% drop for second week, it looks right a game like Nioh.
Joker 3 could have faced bigger supply problems last week if it's not mentioned at all.
Well, Tsutaya reported stock problems for the Top 3 (For Honor, DQMJ3P and Nioh) this week.
Also, NieR Automata preorders are strong! A great opening is expected.
http://www.mantan-web.jp/article/20170222dog00m200010000c.html
Media Create:
PS4 21,204
New3DS LL 16,426
Vita 8,284
PS4 Pro 5,999
2DS 4,665
New3DS 1,203
PS3 500
Wii U 491
Xbox One 76
25k was indeed Nioh.
For Honor at 40k.
Other new releases > crap sales, unfortunately (all below 7k)
PS4 21,204
New3DS LL 16,426
Vita 8,284
PS4 Pro 5,999
2DS 4,665
New3DS 1,203
PS3 500
Wii U 491
Xbox One 76
25k was indeed Nioh.
For Honor at 40k.
Other new releases > crap sales, unfortunately (all below 7k)