Support NeoGAF

[Chris1964]

Wii U first flop week: 21,489

Wii U first flop week was 122.356

 

[Principate]

Looking at the Xbox, Vita and WiiU sales tells that the first two days doesnt mean much though, and PS3 rough start didnt mean that it was the situation throughout the whole console generation.

True but the PS3 never sold more than 2 million in a single calendar year and it had only 1 million seller. For comparison the Vita last year sold in the 1.5 mil mark.

The PS3 never sold well in Japan, it just stopped selling badly. What saved it was the fact Japan actually had a healthy mid tier industry last gen, so while no game sold exceptionally on it and lot of games sold reasonably as it's stall base bought a lot of varied smaller games.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Wii U first flop week was 122.356

Yup. Every platform increased except for the WiiU which actually decreased a bit. That was worrying for a new system.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Wii U first flop week was 122.356

I knew someone would post that. :lol

You are right but you know what I meant.

 

[Principate]

Yup. Every platform increased except for the WiiU which actually decreased a bit. That was worrying for a new system.

Happened with the Vita also, always kinda ominous.

 

[theprodigy]

increased from which two weeks?
I'm too lazy to look

 

[Chris1964]

increased from which two weeks?
I'm too lazy to look

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=505590

Last apocalypse days for DragonSworne

 

[DaBoss]

Oh man, I remember reading these posts. It is crazy how even after a year that he is still bitter about this.

Damn, HUGE sales for Wii U. Facing shortages Wii U has managed to Sell MORE units than Wii did it's in third week and overall for the first 3 weeks.

Japan is truley embracing Wii U has it's main console.

Comparisons:

PSV Shipped 500K units for launch, did not sell out of stock for over a month
PSV First Week Sales - 324,859
PSV Second Week Sales - 72,479
PSV Third Week Sales - 42,648
PSV 2 Week LTD - 439,986

Wii U Shipment unknown but Iwata has apoligized for shortage
Wii U First Week Sales - 308,142
Wii U Second Week Sales - 126,916
Wii U Third Week Sales - 122,843
Wii U 3 Week LTD - 557,901

Wii had shipment problems
Wii First Week Sales - 350,358
Wii Second Week Sales - 85,439
Wii Third Week Sales - 108,237
Wii 3 Week LTD - 544,034

PS3
PS3 First Week Sales - 81,639
PS3 Second Week Sales - 42,099
PS3 Third Week Sales - 32,662
PS3 3 Week LTD - 156,400

Nintendo better get their shipment problem fixed.

Compared to the Wii, the Wii U will need to sell over 260,000 units in the next two weeks to keep it's sales advantage.

Not selling as well as what?

It OUTSOLD the Wii... Given there are shortages....

People were during the first two week Wii U were out in Japan...

They are still convinced even though Wii U has outsold Wii so far...

With these numbers, there is no doubt Wii U will be sub 100k next week. I'd bet on sub 80k as well.

It has had an okay to good launch, but what's to come is what is worrisome. Nintendo should have learned by now that a large period with no releases should never happen, especially AFTER a console is launched.

Lol no

I'm predicting that by the end of January, Wii U will have sold more than Vita LTD.

The next two weeks should see Wii U selling over 300-400k.

The remaining 3 weeks in January te Wii U will only need to sell 80-100k a week.

Seems more than doable

We'll see guys, it's pretty reasonable.

It seems like you guys are down playing the impact of New Years Week.

To gauge how successful the Wii U will be...

If it sells more than than Vita by the end of January, that means the Wii U will be around the 1.2 million mark.

It will be 200k behind Wii in terms of sales, but it will be a good achievement.

There is no shortage bro. I'm in Japan. Wii-U is in every store. Stacks.

That's good to know, should mean big numbers next week. Plenty of supply.

It represents a baseline.

Averaging 120k units a week until E3 should be good enough. But I agree, Nintendo really needs a big E3 to maintain sales in Japan.

 

[Loudninja]

So can we see another PS3 situation for the PS4?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

So can we see another PS3 situation for the PS4?

PS3 did 88k during the holidays....just no. No where near that bad.

 

[Loudninja]

PS3 did 88k during the holidays....just no. No where near that bad.

Hmm I should have said software wise.

I mean something like good support with just ok hardware sales.

 

[Jamix012]

Oh man, I remember reading these posts. It is crazy how even after a year that he is still bitter about this.

Holy shit. 120k baseline!? That's crazy.

 

[Tripon]

Oh man, I remember reading these posts. It is crazy how even after a year that he is still bitter about this.

Holy shit, man. That is an EPIC HEEL TURN. I never understood just how bad it became with him. No wonder he writes that the Wii U struggles was a personal betrayal for him.

 

[MYE]

What sharpening, is the PS4 not setting Japan on fire? Its been kinda chilly around here these days
lol

 

[dolemite]

Wii U Shipment unknown but Iwata has apoligized for shortage

WiiU is like a troubled child whose parents constantly have to apologize for.

 

[Sandfox]

WiiU is like a troubled child whose parents constantly have to apologize for.

Iwata is just quick to apologize about anything even if he doesn't necessarily have to make a statement about it.

 

[Bruno MB]

Added prices

Famitsu home console openings

2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)

Xbox practically sold in its launch week a third of its total sales, that was pretty crazy.

Launch Week - 123.929
Rest of its life - 348.623 / 472.552

 

[BlackJace]

Oh man, I remember reading these posts. It is crazy how even after a year that he is still bitter about this.

It's like a completely different person.

 

[Tripon]

It's like a completely different person.

 

[saichi]

PS2 was ¥39.800 at launch? holy shit

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Some people are just to afraid to face reality.

 

[Chris1964]

PS2 was ¥39.800 at launch? holy shit

PlayStation 1 - ¥39.800
Saturn - ¥44.800

When 3D generation started HW prices exploded

 

[michaelius]

So can we see another PS3 situation for the PS4?

Nope it will be much better - but no chances it matches ps2 records like it does in west.

 

[Chris1964]

So can we see another PS3 situation for the PS4?

Hmm I should have said software wise.

I mean something like good support with just ok hardware sales.

That was always the target for PS4. To match PS3.

 

[Arzehn]

Is Japan getting Reaper of Souls next month like NA? Think it's PS4 only (no PS3).

 

[Loudninja]

Nope it will be much better - but no chances it matches ps2 records like it does in west.

That was always the target for PS4. To match PS3.

Ok thanks guys.

I am no expert on this subject so I appreciate it.

 

[Chris1964]

Ok thanks guys.

I am no expert on this subject so I appreciate it.

We have very different expectations though.

One is PS4>=PS3 and the other PS4>>PS3

Chris is being sarcastic

I'm not.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Ok thanks guys.

I am no expert on this subject so I appreciate it.

Chris is being sarcastic

 

[Loudninja]

We have very different expectations though.

One is PS4>=PS3 and the other PS4>>PS3

Hmm I don't see its surpassing the PS3 really.

Too early to say I guess.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

We have very different expectations though.

One is PS4>=PS3 and the other PS4>>PS3



I'm not.

I would think Sony would expect the PS4 to do better than the PS3 at launch. Unless your talking about LTD's.

 

[thepotatoman]

I think it comes down to some people not accepting how changed the console market is for Japan now.

Frankly, only Twitch plays Pokemon can save us now, and even then JP would only want to watch from NicoNico.

Oh man, NicoNico plays pokemon would be the worst thing ever.

 

[idlewild_]

Is Japan getting Reaper of Souls next month like NA? Think it's PS4 only (no PS3).

Pretty sure only the PC/OSX version is launching next month, don't think the PS4 one has a date.

 

[Asd202]

It's not about the launch.
PS4 has nothing interesting for japanese users after MG:GZ (port) and FF XIV (port).
Sales will be pretty bad this entire year.

Yep starting in April sales will be very low I expect some meltdowns.

 

[Asd202]

Sounds disappointing .

Square, you better sort out your shit fast and release a new FF on PS4 before it's too late.

Well if SE want to continue FF on home consoles, they need to shift their attention to the west. Japan sales won't be as relevant as in the past percentage wise considering the development costs and lower install base.

Overall looking at recent consoles sales numbers the market is shifting not from home consoles to handhelds but from handhelds to mobile.I don't think PS4 will change that unless some kind of innovation comes out and will be a big hit. The only thing I can think of doing that is the rumored VR but it's still far too early to tell and we don't even know if it's true.

 

[Father_Brain]

Is there a complete list of the Japanese-developed PS4 titles that have been announced in the five months since TGS? I know it's not many.

Well if SE want to continue FF on home consoles, they need to shift their attention to the west. Japan sales won't be as relevant as in the past percentage wise considering the development costs and lower install base.

It remains to be seen whether the Western audience for a franchise as distinctively Japanese as FF is large enough to justify the costs of AAA console development. Heck, I'm pretty skeptical about MGSV's sales here (I think it'll at best equal MGS4), and that's a franchise that doesn't have anything close to the same issues on an aesthetic level.

Right now, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one out of Konami, Capcom, and SE's Japanese side permanently exits AAA console development well before the end of the generation. Say, by the end of the 2016/2017 fiscal year.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

PS4 predictions?

I'm thinking 150k.

180k

 

[dolemite]

The PS3 had a lot of hype and the holiday season to boost its number. The PS4 is quite a bit cheaper though and 100k is not that big of a number to reach. If PS4 is below the first week of PS3, then that's trouble.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Is there a complete list of the Japanese-developed PS4 titles that have been announced in the five months since TGS? I know it's not many.



It remains to be seen whether the Western audience for a franchise as distinctively Japanese as FF is large enough to justify the costs of AAA console development. Heck, I'm pretty skeptical about MGSV's sales here (I think it'll at best equal MGS4), and that's a franchise that doesn't have anything close to the same issues on an aesthetic level.

Right now, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one out of Konami, Capcom, and SE's Japanese side permanently exits AAA console development well before the end of the generation. Say, by the end of the 2016/2017 fiscal year.

Square's games look to be an unbelievably tough situation right now. The landscape of consoles may have shifted too much to make a JRPG with a gigantic budget financially viable, but a major part of the appeal for Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts is their cinematics, which is hard to translate to platforms that aren't home consoles. Kingdom Hearts might be in an even worse scenario than Final Fantasy considering that it seems that kids might have moved away from consoles.

 

[Jigorath]

The PS3 had a lot of hype and the holiday season to boost its number. The PS4 is quite a bit cheaper though and 100k is not that big of a number to reach. If PS4 is below the first week of PS3, then that's trouble.

Not a chance the PS4 goes below 87k in it's first week.

 

[Sandfox]

Square's games look to be an unbelievably tough situation right now. The landscape of consoles may have shifted too much to make a JRPG with a gigantic budget financially viable, but a major part of the appeal for Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts is their cinematics, which is hard to translate to platforms that aren't home consoles. Kingdom Hearts might be in an even worse scenario than Final Fantasy considering that it seems that kids might have moved away from consoles.

I don't really think it would be all that hard to have FF style cinematics on a portable device and SE could make mainline FF and KH work on portables if it was no longer seen as viable on consoles.

 

[Road]

Prediction League March 2014

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 24 to Mar 30):

[PS4] Hardware (35 days) -
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi (32 days) -
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta (25 days) -
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II (18 days) -
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (12 days) -
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) -
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) -
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 (11 days) -
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (11 days) -
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2nd (4 days) -
[360] Titanfall (4 days) -

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline: Feb 26 08:00 am (EST) (when Famitsu or Media Create first make their weekly sales public)

Attention:

• PS4 HARDWARE DOESN'T INCLUDE THE LAUNCH "WEEK" (FIRST 2 DAYS)
• Remember for some games it's not only the 1st week.
• Multiplatform games are the combined available sales of each platform

Rules:

• Do not edit your post after the deadline. If you do, you'll be disqualified.
• The official monthly hardware sales will be the sum of weekly numbers for all versions of the system available from Famitsu.
• The official monthly software sales will be the latest total or the sum of the weekly numbers if the title is release before the period available from the Famitsu Top 30.
• The official monthly sales for multi-platform releases will be the combined available sales of each platform shown in the title entry.
• The official monthly sales for games with multiple versions will be the combined available sales of each version shown in the title entry.
• Any game missing in the Famitsu top 30 will be taken out of the predictions.

Was totally forgetting this.
And I forgot to predict for the entire year. =\
Gonna post anyway just to see how wrong I am.

[PS4] Hardare - 1111k
[3DS] Hardware - 3333k
[PSV] Hardware - 999k
[WIU] Hardware - 888k
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 G - 2222k
[3DS] Super Smash Bros. - 888k
[WIU] Super Smash Bros. - 888k
[WIU] Mario Kart 8 - 999k

 

[theprodigy]

[360] Titanfall (4 days)

Japan definitely has not seen Titanfall

 

[And_Gignac]

PS3 had a massive price tag and, as far I know, the first shipment was ridiculously low.

Even if the PS4 outsells the PS3 by a wide margin it wont be a "victory" of any sort if it doesnt have a healthy sell trough - shipments ratio.

 

[Jamix012]

[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 227,000
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi (32 days) - 105,000
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta (25 days) - 93,000
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II (18 days) - 249,000
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (12 days) - 96,000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 185,000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 78,000
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 (11 days) - 165,000
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (11 days) - 189,000
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2nd (4 days) - 229,000
[360] Titanfall (4 days) - 23,500

Some of these I'm genuinely clueless about but I'll give it a shot. I'll do some research before the deadline and adjust accordingly.

 

[Principate]

Japan definitely has not seen Titanfall

360 to outsell the PS4 first week! The Japanese "mecha" thirst is real!

 

[SwiftDeath]

PS3 had a massive price tag and, as far I know, the first shipment was ridiculously low.

Even if the PS4 outsells the PS3 by a wide margin it wont be a "victory" of any sort if it doesnt have a healthy sell trough - shipments ratio.

Yes but if the PS4 launch numbers don't outsell PS3 launch numbers that's troublesome. Granted PS3 launched in holiday but still that would be pretty bad.

 

[Road]

PS4 first day results.

http://azalyn.blog22.fc2.com/
- Hardware sold out
- Best selling: Yakuza, Killzone, Battlefield
- Software tie ratio was over 1
- Yakuza Ishin PS3S4 = 2.5:1

http://ameblo.jp/oosakaking/
- Hardware sold out
- Software tie ratio 0.7

http://blog.livedoor.jp/kisarazumax1250/archives/37254157.html
- Hardware sold out
- Best selling: Yakuza, Killzone
- Software tie ratio 0.46


These are all most likely "hardcore stores".
Yodobashi only has the version with camera sold-out in three stores: http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/news/1000073465/index.html?kind=0002&store=0011
Amazon is apparently sold-out.

 

[Jonnax]

What do you mean by tie ratio?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Yeesh at those software tie ratios

No idea if there's any takeaway with the hw sell out though

 

[Hexa]

First time I'm doing this. Hope I'm doing it right?

[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 200,000
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi (32 days) - 100,000
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta (25 days) - 125,000
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II (18 days) - 375,000
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (12 days) - 150,000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 350,000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 80,000
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 (11 days) - 300,000
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (11 days) - 300,000
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2nd (4 days) - 300,000
[360] Titanfall (4 days) - 10,000

So what if I'm a little optimistic?

Yeesh at those software tie ratios

No idea if there's any takeaway with the hw sell out though

Below 0 tie ratio has to mean that people are planning on buying games digitally or from other stores. The other option is a majority bought a PS4 just for Knack...