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[Oregano]

Zelda might do 500k but there's no chance it does a million. That would be a massive overperformance.

 

[1st Course]

BoTW seems like an entry that Japan will like, I can see it doing very well.

That and it's a launch title, people will naturally buy it along the hardware.

 

[noshten]

Zelda might do 500k but there's no chance it does a million. That would be a massive overperformance.

I'm pretty sure BotW could very easily sell around 1.5 million in Japan by the end of the year. I'd venture to say that in the holidays when we see a second major surge of software and hardware for the Switch - Zelda will be one of the games that benefits. Also you got to keep in mind that the game will receive additional content and there would be marketing and an additional interest towards the title.

There is a reason why it's the best performing game in terms of launch titles, we haven't really had a launch title of this caliber since Wii Sports and that was bundled I think.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I agree. I said it in the previous thread too, that attach rate in itself doesnt really mean much, other than being an interesting statistic. Xbox 360 and 3DS have about the same attach rate as well, for example. And if i'm not mistaken, Xbox One and PSP arent really that far from each other either regarding attach rate.

Isn't attach rate kind of skewed for handhelds vs consoles, since ppl are more likely to buy 2-3 handhelds?

 

[Waji]

Why are people buying PS3's?

Why not ?

 

[cw_sasuke]

Zelda might do 500k but there's no chance it does a million. That would be a massive overperformance.

Not really.. New 3D mainline Zeldas performed quite solid, with only Skyward Sword being the outlier... But it performed bad everywhere because of Wii.

Less than 500k lifetime sales would be abysmal.

 

[Oregano]

I'm pretty sure BotW could very easily sell around 1.5 million in Japan by the end of the year. I'd venture to say that in the holidays when we see a second major surge of software and hardware for the Switch - Zelda will be one of the games that benefits. Also you got to keep in mind that the game will receive additional content and there would be marketing and an additional interest towards the title.

There is a reason why it's the best performing game in terms of launch titles, we haven't really had a launch title of this caliber since Wii Sports and that was bundled I think.

That would make Breath of the Wild more successful than any Zelda game in the last 10 years.

Not really.. New 3D mainline Zeldas performed quite solid, with only Skyward Sword being the outlier... But it performed bad everywhere because of Wii.

Less than 500k lifetime sales would be abysmal.

I wouldn't say abysmal(well depending on how much under 500k we're talking) but it wouldn't be good.

 

[KawabataSan]

Thank you. Here the respective totals for home console and portable markets:

FY 2013 - as of 3/24 - 3/30/2014
Home console software total 17,277,829
Portable software total 30,971,785

FY 2014 - as of 3/23 - 3/29/2015
Home console software total 12,638,024
Portable software total 27,508,685

FY 2015 - as of 3/21 - 3/27/2016
Home console software total 11,916,001
Portable software total 22,722,585

FY 2016 - as of 2/25/2017 (got a month left with the Switch launch in there)
Home console software total 10,697,153
Portable software total 17,578,933

Can we use this data to work out calendar year totals at all?

 

[Man God]

This is why I laugh at anyone who doesn't think the Switch is also replacing the 3DS. It's crystal clear that this is the true end of cycle year for it. DQ XI will be the last major release.

 

[Orgen]

I doubt that too, i just wanted to comment on what was said about non existing competition =)

What do you mean with "but not to the extent of being the market leader"? What other reasons are there for the declining console market?

Compared with Wii and X360, Wii U and Xbone are not competition and you know it! (maybe a bit of hyperbole but they're not comparable ).

What I tried to say is that mobile is not the primal factor in the decline of home consoles and even if PS4 is having better numbers than PS3 right now they're not good numbers for a market leader. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king Other reasons? If I knew I'd rich! hahaha But seeing that almost every game has declined compared with the previous generation (not only the PS4 ones, most of the Wii U ones too) maybe there's some disinterest going on in the Japanese audience? Some new things have seen some different kinds of success (Splatoon and PSVR come to mind) so maybe the industry is stagnant. But really, I don't have any idea why is there such decline in Japan's home console space (mobile is a factor but I don't think it's the main one).

MHXX has to defend itself first.

It's a continued downward trend after this quarter if DQ doesn't make it. There is nothing that can come remotely close to what 3DS has sold last year.

Even if it's going to decline from previous entries it's going to sell at least 1.5 million LTD (and with a big FW) so it makes sense that nobody wants to compete with its sales (although the end of the fiscal year is there and I expected some titles released before April like previous years).

There will be more titles from April but yeah, barring DQXI nothing from the caliber of Sun and Moon so a decline should be expected.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

When will we get YSO predicitons so we can multiply them by 3 and get the real numbers?

 

[Chris1964]

When will we get YSO predicitons so we can multiply them by 3 and get the real numbers?

OK, I wait 450k for NieR next week.

 

[Takao]

If Nier doesn't sell 1.5 million units in Japan by the end of the year it's a flop.

 

[Jon Carter]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 27 to Mar 26):

[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (25 days) - 127,777
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (24 days) - 777,777
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (24 days) - 627,777
[NSW] 1-2-Switch (24 days) - 187,777
[NSW] Super Bomberman R (24 days) - 57,777
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross (9 days) - 1,177,777

 

[test_account]

Isn't attach rate kind of skewed for handhelds vs consoles, since ppl are more likely to buy 2-3 handhelds?

Yeah, that is likely.

Compared with Wii and X360, Wii U and Xbone are not competition and you know it! (maybe a bit of hyperbole but they're not comparable ).

What I tried to say is that mobile is not the primal factor in the decline of home consoles and even if PS4 is having better numbers than PS3 right now they're not good numbers for a market leader. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king Other reasons? If I knew I'd rich! hahaha But seeing that almost every game has declined compared with the previous generation (not only the PS4 ones, most of the Wii U ones too) maybe there's some disinterest going on in the Japanese audience? Some new things have seen some different kinds of success (Splatoon and PSVR come to mind) so maybe the industry is stagnant. But really, I don't have any idea why is there such decline in Japan's home console space (mobile is a factor but I don't think it's the main one).

WiiU and Xbox One are tough competitors! Seriously though, i'm thinking about competition from 3DS and mobile. While not consoles, they still compete for time and money being spent on games.

Stagnation is also a reason indeed, but i dont think that people are ignoring gaming all together because of that, at least not tons of people. Kids during the last few years are also growing up with phones, and have tons of games available for free, so i really think mobile gaming is the main reason for the big decline. The money spent on games (revenue wise) for the whole gaming industry in Japan is still very high.

That said, there are still millions of people who are interested in dedicated gaming hardware. Its still possible to have success there, we've seen stuff like Splatoon as you mentioned, and Minecraft. Many studios still continue to create games for these platforms, so it must be worth it.

 

[noshten]

In light of these predictions, can someone show how the 3DS, Wii U and the last few 3D Zelda titles sold in this timeframe (in their first 27 days) for comparison?

Mlp90 has you covered.

[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} - 182.998 / 600.839
[WII] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo) {2011.11.23} - 194.894 / 346.802
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD (Nintendo) {2013.09.26} - 31.154 / 45.741
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} - 225.418 / 417.874
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds [Nintendo eShop] {DL} (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} - 28.577
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D (Nintendo) {2015.02.14} - 236.536 / 236.536

Comgnet pre-order situation for the Switch

Zelda -261
1 2 Switch - 131
MK8D - 45
DQH - 30
Bomberman - 27

Due to limed qualities of Zelda I wonder if Switch preorders are driving the 1 2 Switch numbers.

MK8D is actually doing alright so far considering it's 60 days away from launch.

Final points and launches for prior MK games:
[Wii] Mario Kart Wii - 450pts (593,576)
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 297pts(423.619)
[WiiU] Mario Kart 8 - 259pts (325.892)

 

[Nimby]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MARCH 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 27 to Mar 26):

[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (25 days) - 133.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (24 days) - 712.000
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (24 days) - 575.000
[NSW] 1-2-Switch (24 days) - 215.000
[NSW] Super Bomberman R (24 days) - 149.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross (9 days) - 1.530.000

 

[Kenzodielocke]

OK, I wait 450k for NieR next week.

I was being sarcastic.

 

[thestopsign]

[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (25 days) - 142,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (24 days) - 590,000
[NSW + WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (24 days) - 560,000
[NSW] 1-2-Switch (24 days) - 180,000
[NSW] Super Bomberman R (24 days) - 80,000
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross (9 days) - 1,222,222

 

[saichi]

I don't know which one is more impossible... 1.5 mil Zelda before end of year or 5 million Splatoon 2 and 10 million Switch in first year

 

[thestopsign]

I don't know which one is more impossible... 1.5 mil Zelda before end of year or 5 million Splatoon 2 and 10 million Switch in first year

I would believe the Zelda number before the Splatoon. Like Zelda would have to entice the Minecraft crowd or something, but I guess that's possible.

 

[Mpl90]

Famitsu had a feature where a few retailers talked about the preorder status at their chains. Retailers in the feature: GEO, BicCamera and GamesMaya. Now, it's been finally translated.

http://nintendoeverything.com/japan...-orders-for-switch-share-various-information/

 

[1st Course]

The Switch will sell whatever Nintendo ships, the hype for this thing is really huge. Much bigger than the 3DS/WiiU from what I remember.

 

[E-phonk]

That would make Breath of the Wild more successful than any Zelda game in the last 10 years.

It does have some MonHun and RPG features the previous games never had, that might interest an audience that previously wasn't attracted to the gameplay of the Zelda games.

The look is also very manga/ghibli minded, I think it has a chance to be one of the best selling (console) Zelda games in Japan.

 

[Rolf NB]

I'm pretty sure BotW could very easily sell around 1.5 million in Japan by the end of the year. I'd venture to say that in the holidays when we see a second major surge of software and hardware for the Switch - Zelda will be one of the games that benefits. Also you got to keep in mind that the game will receive additional content and there would be marketing and an additional interest towards the title.

What kind of Switch hardware numbers do you expect for the year?
1.5 million copies of Zelda would IMO imply 3 million Switch units sold at the very least.

 

[cw_sasuke]

The Switch will sell whatever Nintendo ships, the hype for this thing is really huge. Much bigger than the 3DS/WiiU from what I remember.

Well no one was really hyped about any of the 3DS and WiiU launch titles while Zelda BotW is massive.

 

[Ōkami]

On average YSO is expecting Switch to sell less than 300k on launch week, with Zelda at some 200k.

 

[Loris146]

On average YSO is expecting Switch to sell less than 300k on launch week, with Zelda at some 200k.

WII U + Switch or just Switch version?

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

On average YSO is expecting Switch to sell less than 300k on launch week, with Zelda at some 200k.

Wow, i was way off.

 

[Ōkami]

WII U + Switch or just Switch version?

Just Switch version, don't expect Wii U version to sell more than 50k at launch.

 

[jonno394]

On average YSO is expecting Switch to sell less than 300k on launch week, with Zelda at some 200k.

3DS did 375K+ and Wii U and PS4 both did over 300k week 1, i'd hope it at least had the supply of the latter

For reference, Twilight Princess did 140k at launch and Skyward Sword did close to 200K, but both had a few days extra compared to BotW.

Wow, i was way off.

Which bit were you off?

 

[BronzeWolf]

On average YSO is expecting Switch to sell less than 300k on launch week, with Zelda at some 200k.

Is this good?

Is this only for YSO?

 

[Oregano]

Less than 300k would be pretty bad compared to other recent launches.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Which bit were you off?

I thought Nintendo would double down on Japan and send them like 600k Switch's at launch.

 

[schuelma]

Less than 300k would be pretty bad compared to other recent launches.

All that matters for the long term future of the platform is how badly I am setsuna performs.

 

[jonno394]

I thought Nintendo would double down on Japan and send them like 600k Switch's at launch.

Tbh, I thought there'd be a lot more Supply for Japan. Supplying 300k for your home market at launch is pretty bad when compared to 3DS, but in line with the launches of the last two home consoles in Japan (excluding Xbox of course). Less than 300k though....

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

All that matters for the long term future of the platform is how badly I am setsuna performs.

 

[Chris1964]

All that matters for the long term future of the platform is how badly I am setsuna performs.

Disgaea 5 is the key title. If it underperforms third parties will start cancelling projects left and right.

 

[BronzeWolf]

All that matters for the long term future of the platform is how badly I am setsuna performs.

So, does anybody here know if the Switch japanese cart version has the english translation?

I don't trust/like digital only :\

 

[Oregano]

All that matters for the long term future of the platform is how badly I am setsuna performs.

Disgaea 5 is the key title. If it underperforms third parties will start cancelling projects left and right.

I'm sure they will reconsider when some vague, unannounced successful third party game comes along.

 

[Chris1964]

Week 9, 2017 (Feb 27 - Mar 5)

new releases

{2017.03.01}
[3DS] Himoutou! Umaru-chan Daratto Puzzle _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (FuRyu) (¥500)
[3DS] 1000m Zombie Escape! _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Oink Games) (¥462)
[3DS] Koneko no Ie 2: Himitsu no Hako Kara Tobideta Yume _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Orange) (¥462)

{2017.03.02}
[3DS] Doraemon the Movie: Nobita no Nankyoku Kachikochi Daibouken <ACT> (FuRyu) (¥5.280)
[3DS] Doraemon the Movie: Nobita no Nankyoku Kachikochi Daibouken (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (FuRyu) (¥5.280)
[PSV] Winning Post 8 2017 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥6.800)
[PSV] Winning Post 8 2017 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥6.900)
[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥6.900)
[PS4] Winning Post 8 2017 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS4] Winning Post 8 2017 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS4] Borderlands: The Handsome Collection <Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel! \ Borderlands 2> [2K Collection] <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥3.800)
[PS4] Kromaia &#937; _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <STG> (Rising Star Games) (¥1.850)
[PS3] Winning Post 8 2017 <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)
[PS3] Winning Post 8 2017 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800)

{2017.03.03}
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Gray <H-W> (Nintendo) (¥29.980)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Neon Blue/Neon Red <H-W> (Nintendo) (¥29.980)
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥6.980)
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Collector's Edition) <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥9.980)
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥6.980)
[NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo) (¥4.980)
[NSW] 1-2-Switch (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) (¥4.980)
[NSW] Super Bomberman R <ACT> (Konami) (¥4.980)
[NSW] Super Bomberman R (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Konami) (¥4.980)
[NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch <Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below \ Dragon Quest Heroes II> <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥8.800)
[NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch <Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below \ Dragon Quest Heroes II> (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥8.800)
[NSW] I am Setsuna <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.800)
[NSW] I am Setsuna (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.800)
[NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris <PZL> (Sega) (¥4.990)
[NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <PZL> (Sega) (¥4.990)
[NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete <SLG> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥6.980)
[NSW] Disgaea 5 Complete (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nippon Ichi Software) (¥6.980)
[NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥9.800)
[NSW] Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence with Power-Up Kit (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥9.800)
[NSW] Snipperclips: Cut it Out, Together! _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Nintendo) (¥1.667)
[NSW] Voez _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Flyhigh Works) (¥2.315)
[NSW] Soldam: Blooming Declaration _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (City Connection) (¥1.389)
[NSW] New Frontier Days: Founding Pioneers _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Arc System Works) (¥0)
[NSW] Othello _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <TBL> (Arc System Works) (¥0)
[NSW] Soratobu Bunbun Baan _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ETC> (Poisoft) (¥0)
[NSW] Blaster Master Zero _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Inti Creates) (¥0)
[NSW] ACA NeoGeo: Waku Waku 7 _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <FTG> (Hamster) (¥762)
[NSW] ACA NeoGeo: World Heroes Perfect _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <FTG> (Hamster) (¥762)
[NSW] ACA NeoGeo: The King of Fighters '98: The Slugfest _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <FTG> (Hamster) (¥762)
[NSW] ACA NeoGeo: Metal Slug 3 _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Hamster) (¥762)
[NSW] ACA NeoGeo: Shock Troopers _Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Hamster) (¥762)
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥6.980)
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) (¥6.980)
___

YSO predictions

01. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild < 220k (average 200k)
02. [NSW] 1-2-Switch < 120k (average 100k)
03. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn < 70k (average 60k)
00. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild < 50k (average 45k)
00. [NSW] Nintendo Switch < 350k (average 310k)

 

[Mpl90]

Hopefully the blog will give us actual information, compared to YSO's forecasts. I mean, a less than 300,000 units first shipment, combined with what Shinobi stated, would translate into an initial estimate of less than 200,000 in my opinion (I mean, the "far more" than Shinobi thought translates into a 100,000 difference between his estimate and the actual first shipment). And that's honestly a scenario I have extreme difficulties in imagining, even in the context of Nintendo's own forecast.

EDIT: Of course, Chris posts right when I was typing my own post. Better numbers, but still waiting for the blog / Shinobi to say something more accurate.

 

[jonno394]

That post reads slightly better than "less than 300k sales". I'd wager 250k was the initial supply and they boosted it to 350k.

 

[Chris1964]

That post reads slightly better than "less than 300k sales". I'd wager 250k was the initial supply and they boosted it to 350k.

You think all these who predict at YSO know the initial shipment? There was even a prediction at 400k.

 

[LordKano]

[NSW] Nintendo Switch < 350k (average 310k)

That seems...good ? I dunno, maybe I'm misremembering previous launches but if this manages to sell 350k in two days, I'd say that would be a good start.

 

[jonno394]

You think all these who predict at YSO know the initial shipment? There was even a prediction at 400k.

Good point, i've just had to look in to who they are!

 

[Sterok]

___

YSO predictions

01. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild < 220k (average 200k)
02. [NSW] 1-2-Switch < 120k (average 100k)
03. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn < 70k (average 60k)
00. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild < 50k (average 45k)
00. [NSW] Nintendo Switch < 350k (average 310k)

Hm, if this plays out Zelda won't be as close to being 1:1 with Switch as I thought it might be. Would people be buying the system for 1-2-Switch in this scenario?

 

[Chris1964]

Hm, if this plays out Zelda won't be as close to being 1:1 with Switch as I thought it might be. Would people be buying the system for 1-2-Switch in this scenario?

1:1 attach rate for Zelda would mean a huge attach rate for software, bigger than Wii.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Can't believe 1-2 Switch is going to open at ~100k

 

[jonno394]

Can't believe 1-2 Switch is going to open at ~100k

If it were priced lower i'd definitely grab it, as it looks really fun (imo), at least for those family gatherings or holidays a couple times a year.